Business

The Julia La Roche Show

Julia La Roche brings her listeners in-depth conversations with some of the top CEOs, investors, founders, academics, and rising stars in business. Guests on “The Julia La Roche Show” have included Bill Ackman, Ray Dalio, Marc Benioff, Kyle Bass, Hugh Hendry, Nassim Taleb, Nouriel Roubini, David Friedberg, Anthony Scaramucci, Scott Galloway, Brent Johnson, Jim Rickards, Danielle DiMartino Booth, Carol Roth, Neil Howe, Jim Rogers, Jim Bianco, Josh Brown, and many more. Julia always makes the show about the guest, never the host. She speaks less and listens more. She always does her homework.

Latest Episodes:

#203 "It Reminds Me Most of 2007" — David Rosenberg on Market Bubbles and Economic Illusions Oct 17, 2024

Show notes

In episode 203, David Rosenberg, founder and president of Rosenberg Research, joined Julia to discuss the current economic landscape and his outlook for the future.

✨ This episode is sponsored by Public.com. Lock in your 6.6% yield: https://public.com/julia ✨

Paid endorsement for Public Investing, Inc. Not investment advice. All investing involves the risk of loss, including loss of principal. Brokerage services for US Listed and registered securities, options and Bonds in a self-directed brokerage account are offered by Public Investing. ETFs, options and Bonds are available to US members only. *A Bond Account is a self-directed brokerage account with Public Investing, member FINRA/SIPC. Deposits into this account are used to purchase 10 fractional investment-grade and high-yield bonds. The 6.6% yield is the average annualized yield to maturity (YTM) across all ten bonds in the Bond Account, before fees, as of 9/18/2024. A bond’s yield is a function of its market price, which can fluctuate, and a bond’s YTM is “locked in” when the bond is purchased. Your yield at time of purchase may be different from the yield shown here. The “locked in” YTM is not guaranteed; you may receive less than the YTM of the bonds in the Bond Account if you sell any of the bonds before maturity, or if the issuer calls or defaults on the bond. While corporate bond yields should fall in reaction to a Federal Reserve rate cut, we cannot know whether that will be true of the bonds in the Bond Account, how quickly bond yields will respond, or how much they will decline. Public Investing charges a markup on each bond trade. Bond Accounts are not recommendations of individual bonds or default allocations. The bonds in the Bond Account have not been selected based on your needs or risk profile. Fractional Bonds also carry risks including liquidity risk, interest rate risk, credit risk, inflation risk, and potential tax liabilities. Read more about the risks associated with fixed income and fractional bonds and learn more about the Bond Account at https://public.com/disclosures/bond-account.

In this episode, Rosenberg challenged the prevailing optimism about the U.S. economy, arguing that the apparent strength in GDP numbers is largely due to unsustainable government spending. He highlighted discrepancies between official data and other economic indicators, suggesting that the economy may be weaker than it appears. Rosenberg expressed concern about the stock market's high valuations, drawing parallels to previous market bubbles. He warned of potential risks, including a possible recession in 2025, and discussed the dangers of excessive exposure to equities, particularly among older investors. Rosenberg advocated for a more defensive investment strategy, recommending an increased allocation to bonds and gold, while maintaining a cautious approach to equities. Throughout the conversation, he emphasized the importance of understanding historical patterns and the risks of "new era" thinking in financial markets.

Links:

https://rosenbergresearch.com/

https://x.com/EconguyRosie

Timestamps:

00:23 Introduction and overview of current economic situation

01:03 Discussion on GDP growth and survey data divergence

02:57 Analysis of the Fed's Beige Book and economic indicators

05:19 Impact of government spending on GDP numbers

08:18 Discussion on fiscal policy and upcoming election

10:49 Analysis of government employment data and labor market

13:31 Long-term effects of fiscal policy

15:15 Lack of capital spending cycle and global economic slowdown

17:37 Diffusion analysis of the US economy

19:54 Potential fiscal policy changes after the election

21:10 Discussion on potential recession and historical comparisons

25:15 Analysis of interest rates and debt service costs

27:43 Lags in economic policy effects

31:35 Job report revisions and data reliability issues

35:43 Stock market valuation and earnings growth

39:21 Risks in current stock market valuations

42:26 Discussion on portfolio rebalancing and asset allocation

46:40 Concerns about passive index investing

50:01 Potential impact of stock market decline on the economy

54:15 Investment strategy and portfolio allocation

57:22 Approach to investing in bonds

01:00:45 Total return expectations for bonds

01:02:27 Parting thoughts

#202 Steve Hanke: A Recession Is Still On The Way — What the Money Supply Tells Us About The Economy Oct 15, 2024

Show notes

Steve H. Hanke, professor of applied economics at Johns Hopkins University and the founder and co-director of the Institute for Applied Economics, Global Health, and the Study of Business Enterprise, joins Julia La Roche on episode 202 for a conversation on the state of the economy, the money supply, inflation, and the upcoming election.

✨ This episode is sponsored by Public.com. Lock in your 6.6% yield: https://public.com/julia ✨

Links:

Twitter/X: https://x.com/steve_hanke

Capital, Interest, and Waiting: Controversies, Puzzles, and New Additions to Capital Theory https://link.springer.com/book/10.1007/978-3-031-63398-0

Making Money Work: How to Rewrite the Rules of Our Financial System:

https://www.amazon.com/Making-Money-Work-Rewrite-Financial/dp/1394257260

https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/making-money-work-matt-sekerke/1146170520

Timestamps:

00:00 Introduction and welcome Professor Hanke

02:06 Discussion on China's economy and inflation

04:29 U.S. economy and money supply contraction

07:29 European economic situation

10:41 Focus on money supply vs interest rates

15:59 Discussion on job report revisions and data reliability

21:17 Inflation forecast and bond yields

25:57 Fed's record on predicting economic trends

27:29 Book recommendations on economic theory

31:57 Analysis of upcoming election (polls vs prediction markets)

38:17 Economic policies of candidates

42:40 Industrial policy and protectionism

45:15 Government spending as percentage of GDP

48:40 Parting thoughts and new book announcements

50:22 Closing remarks

#201 Eric Basmajian On What's Really Going On With The Economy Right Now Oct 10, 2024

Show notes

Eric Basmajian, founder and CEO of EPB Research, joins Julia on episode 201 to discuss the economy, housing market dynamics, outlook on unemployment trends, and the long-term economic factors, including the effects of increasing government size on private sector growth.

✨ This episode is sponsored by Public.com. Lock in your 6.6% yield: https://public.com/julia ✨

Links:

Website: https://www.epbresearch.com/

Twitter/X: https://x.com/EPBResearch

Substack: https://epbresearch.substack.com/

Timestamps:

00:00 Introduction and welcome Eric Basmajian

01:03 Macro view + Eric's four economies framework

03:17 Explanation of leading, cyclical, aggregate, and lagging economies

07:29 Current state of the economy and growth rates

09:32 How to discern signal from noise in economic data

13:15 Discussion on economic revisions and their significance

16:23 Addressing common misconceptions about the economy

20:55 Inflation trends and relationship to the business cycle

23:03 Analysis of Fed's September rate cut decision

25:22 Impact of backlogs on economic activity post-COVID

30:48 Overview of the residential housing cycle

33:55 Current housing market supply and demand dynamics

37:08 Forecast for unemployment rate trends

43:53 Long-term economic outlook factors (debt, demographics, government size)

48:16 Declining growth rates in real private sector income

50:51 Impact of increasing government size on economic growth

54:15 Optimal government size for economic growth

57:37 Connection between rising home prices and demographic changes

#200 Chris Whalen: The Fed 'Jumped The Shark' With Its Rate Cut Oct 08, 2024

Show notes

Investment banker and author Chris Whalen, chairman of Whalen Global Advisors, who is also the author of The Institutional Risk Analyst, returns for episode 200 to discuss the economy, the Fed, upcoming bank earnings, the 2024 election, and more.

✨ This episode is sponsored by Public.com. Lock in your 6.6% yield: https://public.com/julia ✨

Links:

Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen

Website: https://www.rcwhalen.com/

The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/

Stanley Middleman book: https://www.amazon.com/Seeing-Around-Corners-Achieving-Business/dp/B0D5PTSJVC/

00:00 Introduction and welcome Chris Whalen

01:10 Macro view and Federal Reserve actions

02:56 Fed's rate cut mistake and implications

05:14 Fed's credibility and narrative challenges

07:12 Global economic outlook and banking sector issues

09:13 Inflation and its impact on different economic segments

12:09 Analysis of proposed first-time homebuyer policy

15:01 Discussion on oil markets and OPEC

16:48 US 10-year yields and mortgage rates

19:46 Outlook for upcoming bank earnings

22:19 Basel Accord and banking regulation issues

26:25 Market risks and bank solvency concerns

28:16 Implications of rising 10-year Treasury yields

30:36 2024 US election outlook and key issues

33:00 Closing thoughts and upcoming book releases

#199 Josh Brown: You Weren't Supposed To See That Oct 01, 2024

Show notes

Josh Brown, co-founder and CEO of Ritholtz Wealth Management, a New York City-based investment advisory firm managing over $5 billion, joins Julia La Roche on episode 199. Josh is a frequent commentator on CNBC's "Halftime Report," and the author of four books, including his newest, "You Weren't Supposed To See That: Secrets Every Investor Should Know."

✨ This episode is sponsored by Public.com. Lock in your 6.6% yield: https://public.com/julia ✨ Paid endorsement for Public Investing, Inc. Not investment advice. All investing involves the risk of loss, including loss of principal. Brokerage services for US Listed and registered securities, options and Bonds in a self-directed brokerage account are offered by Public Investing. ETFs, options and Bonds are available to US members only. *A Bond Account is a self-directed brokerage account with Public Investing, member FINRA/SIPC. Deposits into this account are used to purchase 10 fractional investment-grade and high-yield bonds. The 6.6% yield is the average annualized yield to maturity (YTM) across all ten bonds in the Bond Account, before fees, as of 9/18/2024. A bond’s yield is a function of its market price, which can fluctuate, and a bond’s YTM is “locked in” when the bond is purchased. Your yield at time of purchase may be different from the yield shown here. The “locked in” YTM is not guaranteed; you may receive less than the YTM of the bonds in the Bond Account if you sell any of the bonds before maturity, or if the issuer calls or defaults on the bond. While corporate bond yields should fall in reaction to a Federal Reserve rate cut, we cannot know whether that will be true of the bonds in the Bond Account, how quickly bond yields will respond, or how much they will decline. Public Investing charges a markup on each bond trade. Bond Accounts are not recommendations of individual bonds or default allocations. The bonds in the Bond Account have not been selected based on your needs or risk profile. Fractional Bonds also carry risks including liquidity risk, interest rate risk, credit risk, inflation risk, and potential tax liabilities. Read more about the risks associated with fixed income and fractional bonds and learn more about the Bond Account at https://public.com/disclosures/bond-account.

Book: https://www.amazon.com/You-Werent-Supposed-See-That/dp/180409059X

Timestamps:

00:00 Introduction and welcome Josh Brown

02:05 The current state of the economy and markets

06:18 Abundance mindset vs scarcity mindset in investing

10:42 Josh's journey from blogging to meeting Barry Ritholtz

15:08 Overcoming imposter syndrome and taking risks

18:25 Josh's experience in boiler rooms and being honest about his past 21:30 Discussing Josh's personal story and education

25:58 "You Weren't Supposed to See That"

29:37 Current market trends and investment philosophy

34:20 The role of financial advisors during market volatility

38:45 Building a media empire in finance

43:12 The importance of communication in wealth management

47:30 Reflecting on career growth and luck in the industry

50:15 The asymmetry of putting yourself out there and final thoughts

#198 Raoul Pal On The Economic Singularity: "We've Got 6 Years To Make As Much Money As We Possibly Can" Sep 26, 2024

Show notes

Raoul Pal, founder and CEO of Real Vision and author of the Global Macro Investor, joins Julia La Roche on episode 198 to share his macro outlook and why he thinks we're headed for an Economic Singularity with the rise of AI.

✨ This episode is sponsored by Public.com. Lock in your 6.6% yield: https://public.com/julia ✨ Paid endorsement for Public Investing, Inc. Not investment advice. All investing involves the risk of loss, including loss of principal. Brokerage services for US Listed and registered securities, options and Bonds in a self-directed brokerage account are offered by Public Investing. ETFs, options and Bonds are available to US members only. *A Bond Account is a self-directed brokerage account with Public Investing, member FINRA/SIPC. Deposits into this account are used to purchase 10 fractional investment-grade and high-yield bonds. The 6.6% yield is the average annualized yield to maturity (YTM) across all ten bonds in the Bond Account, before fees, as of 9/18/2024. A bond’s yield is a function of its market price, which can fluctuate, and a bond’s YTM is “locked in” when the bond is purchased. Your yield at time of purchase may be different from the yield shown here. The “locked in” YTM is not guaranteed; you may receive less than the YTM of the bonds in the Bond Account if you sell any of the bonds before maturity, or if the issuer calls or defaults on the bond. While corporate bond yields should fall in reaction to a Federal Reserve rate cut, we cannot know whether that will be true of the bonds in the Bond Account, how quickly bond yields will respond, or how much they will decline. Public Investing charges a markup on each bond trade. Bond Accounts are not recommendations of individual bonds or default allocations. The bonds in the Bond Account have not been selected based on your needs or risk profile. Fractional Bonds also carry risks including liquidity risk, interest rate risk, credit risk, inflation risk, and potential tax liabilities. Read more about the risks associated with fixed income and fractional bonds and learn more about the Bond Account at https://public.com/disclosures/bond-account.

Links: Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/raoulgmi GMI: https://globalmacroinvestor.com/ Real Vision: https://www.realvision.com/

00:00 Welcome Raoul Pal and Real Vision's 10-year anniversary

01:39 The Everything Code and macro cycles explained

05:38 Explaining liquidity and its sources

07:29 Central banks, liquidity, and currency debasement

11:42 Risk-taking and asset performance in the current environment

15:02 The exciting macro setup and market opportunities ahead

17:43 Addressing misconceptions about recessions and market bubbles

22:23 Federal Reserve rate cuts and inflation outlook

25:58 Raoul's evolution to a more optimistic market view

34:45 The concept of economic singularity explained

38:20 AI's impact on productivity and economic growth

42:20 Preparing for the economic singularity in the next 6 years

43:58 Bitcoin as a high-performing asset

45:07 Real Vision's past and future outlook

48:58 Closing thoughts on "unf***ing your future"

#197 Bill Fleckenstein On Why The Fed's Rate Cut Was A Mistake, The End Game For The Activist Central Bank Era, And The Psychology Of Market Bubbles Sep 24, 2024

Show notes

Bill Fleckenstein, president and founder of Fleckenstein Capital, returns to The Julia La Roche Show for episode 197.

✨ This episode is sponsored by Public.com. Lock in your 6.9% yield: https://public.com/julia ✨

*A Bond Account is a self-directed brokerage account with Public Investing, member FINRA/SIPC. Deposits into this account are used to purchase 10 fractional investment-grade and high-yield bonds. The 6.6% yield is the average annualized yield to maturity (YTM) across all ten bonds in the Bond Account, before fees, as of 9/18/2024. A bond’s yield is a function of its market price, which can fluctuate, and a bond’s YTM is “locked in” when the bond is purchased. Your yield at time of purchase may be different from the yield shown here. The “locked in” YTM is not guaranteed; you may receive less than the YTM of the bonds in the Bond Account if you sell any of the bonds before maturity, or if the issuer calls or defaults on the bond. While corporate bond yields should fall in reaction to a Federal Reserve rate cut, we cannot know whether that will be true of the bonds in the Bond Account, how quickly bond yields will respond, or how much they will decline. Public Investing charges a markup on each bond trade. Bond Accounts are not recommendations of individual bonds or default allocations. The bonds in the Bond Account have not been selected based on your needs or risk profile. Fractional Bonds also carry risks including liquidity risk, interest rate risk, credit risk, inflation risk, and potential tax liabilities. Read more about the risks associated with fixed income and fractional bonds and learn more about the Bond Account at https://public.com/disclosures/bond-account.

Links:

Book: https://www.amazon.com/Greenspans-Bubbles-Ignorance-Federal-Reserve/dp/0071591583

Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/fleckcap Website: https://www.fleckensteincapital.com/

00:12 Welcome and introduction

01:20 Macro view and Fed policy

7:08 Understanding inflation and central bank policies

11:21 The bond market's role in economic stability

18:01 Bubbles and market psychology

21:45 Current economic health and stagflation outlook

26:46 The Fed's credibility crisis

31:53 Implications of the upcoming election

34:13 Gold and silver investment perspectives

35:55 Japanese yen carry trade unwind

37:14 US dollar outlook

39:41 Thesis development in investing

42:00 The U.S. debt situation and future outlook

44:03 Parting thoughts on developing investment theses

46:07 Book recommendations and where to find Bill's work

#196 Brent Johnson, Creator of The Dollar Milkshake Theory, Explains How The Global Economy Is 'One Big Carry Trade' Sep 17, 2024

Show notes

Brent Johnson, founder and CEO of Santiago Capital, returns for episode 196, in which he discusses the current macro landscape, focusing on Fed policy, global markets, and his Dollar Milkshake Theory. He explores gold's role as a signal of economic stress, the dynamics of carry trades, and potential market volatility ahead.

✨ This episode is sponsored by Public.com. Lock in your 6.9% yield: https://public.com/julia ✨ Paid endorsement for Public Investing, Inc. Not investment advice. All investing involves the risk of loss, including loss of principal. Brokerage services for US Listed and registered securities, options and Bonds in a self-directed brokerage account are offered by Public Investing. ETFs, options and Bonds are available to US members only. *A Bond Account is a self-directed brokerage account with Public Investing, member FINRA/SIPC. Deposits into this account are used to purchase 10 fractional investment-grade and high-yield bonds. The 6.9% yield is the average annualized yield to maturity (YTM) across all ten bonds in the Bond Account, before fees, as of 8/23/2024. A bond’s yield is a function of its market price, which can fluctuate, and a bond’s YTM is “locked in” when the bond is purchased. Your yield at time of purchase may be different from the yield shown here. The “locked in” YTM is not guaranteed; you may receive less than the YTM of the bonds in the Bond Account if you sell any of the bonds before maturity, or if the issuer calls or defaults on the bond. While corporate bond yields should fall in reaction to a Federal Reserve rate cut, we cannot know whether that will be true of the bonds in the Bond Account, how quickly bond yields will respond, or how much they will decline. Public Investing charges a markup on each bond trade. Bond Accounts are not recommendations of individual bonds or default allocations. The bonds in the Bond Account have not been selected based on your needs or risk profile. Fractional Bonds also carry risks including liquidity risk, interest rate risk, credit risk, inflation risk, and potential tax liabilities. Read more about the risks associated with fixed income and fractional bonds and learn more about the Bond Account at https://public.com/disclosures/bond-account.

Links:

Twitter/X: https://x.com/SantiagoAuFund

YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@milkshakespod

Macro Alchemist: https://macroalchemist.com/

0:00 Welcome Brent Johnson

1:05 Current macro picture and Fed policy

4:40 Challenges of engineering a soft landing

8:54 What is gold signaling?

14:22 Global demand for gold

17:29 Dollar Milkshake Theory explained

24:11 Geopolitical implications of the dollar system

30:22 Market outlook

37:42 Are markets in a bubble?

41:51 Gold price outlook

45:35 2024 election impact on markets

49:24 Yen carry trade and broader carry trade risks

56:17 The global system as one big carry trade

59:03 Closing thoughts and where to find Brent's work

#195 Chris Whalen On Why The Fed Is Afraid To Really Fight Inflation Sep 10, 2024

Show notes

Investment banker and author Chris Whalen, chairman of Whalen Global Advisors, who is also the author of The Institutional Risk Analyst, returns to the show for episode 195 to discuss the current state of the economy.

✨ This episode is sponsored by Public.com. Lock in your 6.9% yield: https://public.com/julia ✨

*A Bond Account is a self-directed brokerage account with Public Investing, member FINRA/SIPC. Deposits into this account are used to purchase 10 fractional investment-grade and high-yield bonds. The 6.9% yield is the average annualized yield to maturity (YTM) across all ten bonds in the Bond Account, before fees, as of 8/23/2024. A bond’s yield is a function of its market price, which can fluctuate, and a bond’s YTM is “locked in” when the bond is purchased. Your yield at time of purchase may be different from the yield shown here. The “locked in” YTM is not guaranteed; you may receive less than the YTM of the bonds in the Bond Account if you sell any of the bonds before maturity, or if the issuer calls or defaults on the bond. While corporate bond yields should fall in reaction to a Federal Reserve rate cut, we cannot know whether that will be true of the bonds in the Bond Account, how quickly bond yields will respond, or how much they will decline. Public Investing charges a markup on each bond trade. Bond Accounts are not recommendations of individual bonds or default allocations. The bonds in the Bond Account have not been selected based on your needs or risk profile. Fractional Bonds also carry risks including liquidity risk, interest rate risk, credit risk, inflation risk, and potential tax liabilities. Read more about the risks associated with fixed income and fractional bonds and learn more about the Bond Account at https://public.com/disclosures/bond-account.

Links:

Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen

Website: https://www.rcwhalen.com/

The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/

Stanley Middleman book: https://www.amazon.com/Seeing-Around-Corners-Achieving-Business/dp/B0D5PTSJVC/

Chapters

00:00 Intro and welcome back Chris Whalen

01:04 Big picture view — is there a recession or not?

02:24 Labor market

03:44 Home prices

07:53 Recession

10:40 Rate policy

12:54 Fed is afraid to really fight inflation

14:00 Liquidity explained

17:00 Americans are looking to be bailed out

21:30 Intervention

23:05 Fed

24:50 Deficit

28:40 Election

32:36 Parting thoughts

#194 Dr. Art Laffer: If Trump Wins And Follows The Economic Policies Of His First Term We Could See A Renaissance In America Sep 03, 2024

Show notes

Dr. Art Laffer, one of the most influential economists of the past half-century, joins Julia La Roche for episode 194. Dr. Laffer is the founder and chairman of Laffer Associates, an economic research and consulting firm. Known as the "Father of Supply Economics," he is famous for developing the Laffer Curve, a representation of the relationship between tax rates and tax revenue that was foundational to supply-side economics. Dr. Laffer served as a member of President Reagan's Economic Policy Advisory Board for both of Reagan's terms.

Timestamps:

0:00 Intro and welcome back Dr. Art Laffer

1:06 Big picture macro view, a long period of economic senescence

5:13 Transfer theorem and the decline in growth rates

7:58 Upcoming election from an economics lens

11:30 Operation Warp Speed and Right To Try

15:25 A second-term Trump could unleash a Renaissance in America's economy

19:00 Five pillars of prosperity

24:17 Tariffs

28:30 Trade and geopolitics

33:30 Trade is not a political weapon

42:50 Government spending