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    Business

    The Julia La Roche Show

    Julia La Roche brings her listeners in-depth conversations with some of the top CEOs, investors, founders, academics, and rising stars in business. Guests on “The Julia La Roche Show” have included Bill Ackman, Ray Dalio, Marc Benioff, Kyle Bass, Hugh Hendry, Nassim Taleb, Nouriel Roubini, David Friedberg, Anthony Scaramucci, Scott Galloway, Brent Johnson, Jim Rickards, Danielle DiMartino Booth, Carol Roth, Neil Howe, Jim Rogers, Jim Bianco, Josh Brown, and many more. Julia always makes the show about the guest, never the host. She speaks less and listens more. She always does her homework.

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    Latest Episodes:
    #223 Chris Whalen: If Trump Doesn't Attack The Fiscal Issue Head On, He Could Be Lame Duck | 2025 Outlook Jan 07, 2025
    Show notes

    Chris Whalen, chairman of Whalen Global Advisors and author of The Institutional Risk Analyst, joins Episode 223 of the Julia La Roche Show for his first outlook of 2025. Whalen explains why he believes long-term interest rates could rise unless Trump makes "real progress" on the federal deficit, warns a "kamikaze release" of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac from conservatorship without legislation would be highly disruptive, and shares why focusing on Treasury policy rather than the Federal Reserve is "all that matters." He also discusses why stocks could be "ready for a downward adjustment" after outperforming in 2023-2024, and offers a surprisingly optimistic longer-term view if Washington can demonstrate "real leadership."



    Links:

    Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen

    Website: https://www.rcwhalen.com/

    The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/

    Stanley Middleman book: https://www.amazon.com/Seeing-Around-Corners-Achieving-Business/dp/B0D5PTSJVC/


    Timestamps:

    00:00 Welcome back to Chris Whalen

    01:12 2024 retrospective and consumer spending

    02:42 Housing affordability and discretionary spending

    04:49 Inflation outlook and Fed policy

    06:31 Fed's focus on market stability over inflation

    08:16 Fed rate cuts projection for 2025

    10:52 Trump administration 2.0 outlook

    11:42 Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac conservatorship discussion

    13:21 Recession probability assessment

    15:25 GSE release implications

    19:45 Best approach to GSE reform

    21:47 Federal deficit challenges

    23:38 US debt situation and spending freeze

    25:49 Treasury debt issuance strategy

    27:42 Shifting narrative from Fed to Treasury

    28:36 Market outlook for 2025

    30:50 Closing thoughts on leadership and demographics


    #222 Luke Gromen: 'Devalue The Dollar First' | Why DOGE Without Dollar Weakening Would Be 'Catastrophic Dec 24, 2024
    Show notes

    Luke Gromen, founder of FFTT, joins Episode 222 of the Julia La Roche Show to discuss why he believes the Department of Defense, not the Federal Reserve, now drives U.S. economic policy. Gromen warns that if the incoming Trump administration attempts efficiency cuts (DOGE) before devaluing the dollar, "they will fail spectacularly" and "what happened in '08 will look like a tea party." He explains why rebuilding America's hollowed-out defense industrial base requires significant spending that can't be constrained by bond market concerns, shares his portfolio strategy favoring gold, Bitcoin, and T-bills over long-term bonds, and explores how a strategic Bitcoin reserve could help rebalance global trade.


    This episode was recorded on Dec. 16.


    Links:

    website: https://fftt-llc.com/

    Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/lukegromen


    00:01 Introduction and welcome Luke Gromen

    00:47 Two key themes for 2025

    03:12 DOD driving economic decisions, not Fed/Treasury

    04:58 Bond market dynamics and military spending

    07:25 Defense industrial base concerns

    09:16 Historical parallels to WWII financing

    12:07 Currency as release valve

    14:01 Impact on equities, Bitcoin, gold

    16:04 Foreign vs. domestic bondholders

    21:06 U.S. debt situation

    24:03 Healthcare and entitlement challenges

    31:10 Social Security reform mathematics 35:42 Historical dollar devaluations

    41:10 DOGE and order of operations

    44:15 Optimism about dollar devaluation

    47:04 Portfolio allocation strategy

    56:09 Strategic Bitcoin reserve discussion


    #221 Danielle DiMartino Booth: Fed Has 'Frayed Nerves,' Jobs Data 'Statistically Impossible' & How A Recession Could Get 'Pinned' On Trump Dec 19, 2024
    Show notes

    Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO and chief strategist of QI Research and former Federal Reserve insider, joins the Julia La Roche Show for an in-person interview to discuss why she sees "frayed nerves" at the Federal Reserve about the incoming Trump administration. In this wide-ranging conversation, DiMartino Booth reveals why 18 months of downward revisions to jobs data is "statistically impossible," explains how bureaucrats could start "releasing the Kraken" with true economic data that gets "pinned on Trump," and warns about the explosion of buy-now-pay-later debt that's not showing up in official credit statistics. She also shares a powerful message about the growing divide between Wall Street and Main Street


    A global thought leader in monetary policy, economics, and finance, DiMartino Booth founded QI Research in 2015. She is the author of FED UP: An Insider’s Take on Why the Federal Reserve is Bad for America (Portfolio, Feb 2017), a business speaker, and a commentator frequently featured on CNBC, Bloomberg, Fox News, Fox Business News, BNN Bloomberg, Yahoo Finance and other major media outlets. Prior to QI Research, DiMartino Booth spent nine years at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. She served as Advisor to President Richard W. Fisher throughout the financial crisis until his retirement in March 2015. Her work at the Fed focused on financial stability and the efficacy of unconventional monetary policy.

    DiMartino Booth began her career in New York at Credit Suisse and Donaldson, Lufkin & Jenrette where she worked in the fixed-income, public equity, and private equity markets. DiMartino Booth earned her BBA as a College of Business Scholar at the University of Texas at San Antonio. She holds an MBA in Finance and International Business from the University of Texas at Austin and an MS in Journalism from Columbia University.


    Links:

    QI Research: https://quillintelligence.com/subscriptions/

    Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/dimartinobooth

    Fed Up: https://www.amazon.com/Fed-Up-Insiders-Federal-Reserve/dp/0735211655


    Timestamps:

    00:00 Welcome Danielle

    01:00 Reaction to the FOMC, frayed nerves at the Fed

    3:08 Fed spooked by inflation

    3:45 Fed went in opposite direction of staff presentations

    6:30 10-Year

    8:03 A "closer call"

    9:12 Does the Fed make policy for the public good?

    13:00 Nihilism among younger generations

    16:30 The government is buying the economy time, and the Fed is making the wealthier wealthier

    18:48 Are we in a recession?

    22:00 Declining consumption is not a prerequisite to recession

    24:10 Could Trump inherit a recession?

    26:30 Jobs numbers

    30:00 Story behind the data

    31:20 Trump administration 2.0

    37:45 Stock market

    39:50 What's keeping Danielle up at night

    42:11 Parting thoughts


    #220 Felix Zulauf: Sailing In Dangerous Waters — US Stocks Are In A Bubble And Here's What Could Break It Dec 17, 2024
    Show notes

    Former hedge fund manager Felix Zulauf, founder and president of Zulauf Consulting, returns to The Julia La Roche Show for episode 220 for his annual outlook interview to discuss why U.S. stocks are in a bubble and what could break it. In this wide-ranging conversation, Zulauf explains why watching the Japanese yen is critical for understanding when global liquidity might dry up, warns that AI stocks could fall 50-70% when the bubble bursts, and shares his view that 2025 will be a "mini version" of the decade's roller coaster ride for markets. He also discusses why Trump's proposed tariffs could create significant economic headwinds, explores why Europe and China face structural challenges, and outlines his targets for Bitcoin ($115,000-$130,000) before a potential 80% correction.


    https://www.felixzulauf.com/


    0:00 Welcome back Felix Zulauf

    00:50 Macro picture

    03:47 China's structural challenges

    06:14 Germany and Europe's structural malaise

    09:36 US labor market dynamics

    12:46 Impact of government spending cuts and tariffs

    16:30 US stock market bubble discussion

    21:14 Global liquidity and Japanese yen dynamics

    25:14 Market bubble indicators and timing

    28:39 Decennial pattern analysis

    32:36 Discussion of inflation dynamics

    36:36 Bond market paradigm shift

    41:20 Commodity sector leadership outlook

    45:21 Trade war risks and historical parallels

    48:56 Gold and Bitcoin outlook

    51:20 Financial system stability concerns


    https://www.felixzulauf.com/


    #219 Campbell Harvey: End of Boom-Bust Cycle? | Will Yield Curve Show First False Signal? Dec 12, 2024
    Show notes

    Professor Campbell Harvey, professor of finance at the Fuqua School of Business at Duke University and the inventor of the most famous recession indicator — the inverted yield curve — returns to The Julia La Roche Show for episode 219 to discuss the state of the economy, the yield curve, and what's ahead for U.S. growth.


    Links:

    DeFI and the Future of Finance: https://www.amazon.com/DeFi-Future-Finance-Campbell-Harvey/dp/1119836018 https://www.fuqua.duke.edu/faculty/campbell-harvey https://people.duke.edu/~charvey/ https://twitter.com/camharvey


    Timestamps:

    00:02 Introduction to Professor Campbell Harvey

    00:51 BlackRock's "end of boom-bust cycle" thesis

    04:15 Historical perspective on market cycles

    06:14 Impact of wealthy consumers on economy

    07:13 Role of technological innovation

    11:37 U.S. leadership in innovation

    14:31 Growth prospects and productivity potential

    16:09 Post-election growth outlook

    24:56 U.S. debt and deficit challenges

    28:16 Social Security sustainability issues

    32:51 Inverted yield curve indicator discussion

    40:11 Impact of technological innovations

    45:21 Federal Reserve policy critique

    50:20 Distortions from Fed's zero-rate policy

    54:18 Future consequences of Fed decisions

    59:40 Closing thoughts on U.S. prospects


    #218 James Lavish: The Debt Is Unsustainable, All Roads Lead to Inflation, And Why I'm Bullish On Bitcoin Dec 10, 2024
    Show notes

    James Lavish, reformed hedge-fund manager and co-managing partner of the Bitcoin Opportunity Fund and author of The Informationist newsletter, joined Episode 218 of the Julia La Roche Show as Bitcoin crossed the historic $100,000 milestone.


    Lavish provides a comprehensive analysis of the current macro environment, explores why "all roads lead to inflation," breaks down MicroStrategy's Bitcoin strategy, and shares his outlook on institutional adoption of cryptocurrencies. He also discusses the widening wealth gap in America and examines the challenges facing the Department of Government Efficiency's ambitious spending cut goals.


    Links:

    Twitter/X: https://x.com/jameslavish

    The Informationist: https://jameslavish.substack.com/

    The Bitcoin Opportunity Fund: https://www.bitcoinopportunity.fund/


    Timestamps:


    00:00 Introduction and welcome James Lavish

    00:45 Post-election market overview

    02:34 Fed policy and bond market reaction

    04:56 Labor market and unemployment analysis

    06:40 Discussion of economic soft spots

    09:27 Wealth inequality and Cantillon effect

    12:16 Federal Reserve's policy options

    15:05 Understanding unemployment metrics

    18:41 Debt and deficit discussion

    24:19 Department of Government Efficiency analysis

    29:34 Bitcoin breaking $100K milestone

    33:24 Bitcoin ETF impact and institutional adoption

    38:36 Bitcoin catalysts and outlook

    44:18 MicroStrategy's Bitcoin strategy explained

    51:13 Corporate Bitcoin adoption outlook

    55:18 Closing thoughts and investment approach


    #217 Anthony Scaramucci: If I'm Right, Bitcoin Will Be Worth 10X From Where It Is Today Dec 05, 2024
    Show notes

    Anthony Scaramucci, managing partner of SkyBridge Capital, joins Julia La Roche on Episode 217 to discuss his new book "The Little Book of Bitcoin." He shares his journey from his 11-day tenure as White House Communications Director to SkyBridge Capital's bold entry into cryptocurrency that nearly led to the firm's collapse. Scaramucci offers insights on failure, risk-taking, and explains why he believes Bitcoin's value will increase tenfold from today's price.


    Links:

    https://x.com/scaramucci

    https://www.amazon.com/Little-Book-Bitcoin-Already-Figured/dp/1394286643


    0:00 Welcome Anthony Scaramucci

    01:50 Scaramucci on Trump

    04:00 Politics

    05:00 Impact on relationship

    06:23 Take risks and fail

    08:37 How bad did it get economically?

    10:29 Doing nothing is sometimes the best thing to do, but it's very hard on Wall Street

    12:20 Island of Elba observation

    14:15 Getting fired from the White House

    17:55 Macro picture

    25:00 Skybridge taking a massive risk in 2020, going in on Bitcoin

    32:00 Raising money again, buying Bitcoin still

    33:57 Said Bitcoin was going to $100K at the end of 2022

    36:13 Trump and Bitcoin

    39:17 Michael Saylor

    43:16 Bitcoin existing as part of Wall Street

    50:00 If I'm right, it's going to be worth 10x where it is today, $150K-$300K next 3-5 years

    53:11 Why Gary Gensler helped the crypto industry

    55:30 Parting thoughts


    #216 Chris Whalen: If Trump Administration Gets Serious About Deficit, Rates Will Fall Without Fed Dec 03, 2024
    Show notes

    Chris Whalen, chairman of Whalen Global Advisors and author of The Institutional Risk Analyst, joined the Julia La Roche Show (Ep. 216) to share his outlook on markets amid the transition to a new Trump administration. Whalen explains why the markets want to see seriousness about deficit reduction from the incoming administration, discusses his views on Scott Bessent as Treasury Secretary pick, and outlines why showing progress on the deficit could drive rates lower without Fed intervention. He also delves into the future of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the return of bond vigilantes, and why Bitcoin's rise is his favorite inflation indicator.


    Links:

    Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen

    Website: https://www.rcwhalen.com/

    The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/

    Stanley Middleman book: https://www.amazon.com/Seeing-Around-Corners-Achieving-Business/dp/B0D5PTSJVC/


    Timestamps:

    **Timestamps:**

    00:01 Introduction to Chris Whalen

    00:54 Post-election cabinet picks and macro overview

    03:16 Analysis of Treasury Secretary pick Scott Bessent

    05:04 Discussion of Treasury debt and market implications

    06:14 Treasury priorities and impact on rates

    07:31 Federal Reserve policy and market normalization

    09:25 Long-term vs short-term rates outlook

    11:25 Housing market forecast

    13:22 Fannie Mae & Freddie Mac conservatorship discussion

    17:16 GSE stock trading outlook

    19:11 Fed rate cut implications for market narrative

    21:49 Recession and credit market concerns

    23:17 Inflation discussion and Bitcoin indicator

    25:49 Gold policy recommendations

    27:07 Tariffs and trade policy analysis

    29:28 Department of Government Efficiency outlook

    31:35 Government headcount reduction impact

    34:44 Closing thoughts on Treasury markets


    #215 Jim Rogers: Market Party Will End in Crisis | Why He's Not Shorting 'Yet' Nov 28, 2024
    Show notes

    Legendary investor Jim Rogers, co-founder of the Quantum Fund with George Soros and author of multiple bestselling books including "Street Smarts" and "Investment Biker," returns to the Julia La Roche Show (Ep. 215) with a stark warning about America's debt crisis and market euphoria. Speaking from Singapore, Rogers shares why he's recently cut back his positions "enormously," explains his continued investments in China and Uzbekistan, and offers a sobering perspective on America's $200+ trillion in total obligations (this includes off-balance sheet debt). While not yet shorting markets, Rogers cautions that current market complacency reminds him of previous peaks, and explains why he's holding U.S. dollars despite long-term concerns about America's financial future.


    ✨ This episode is sponsored by Public.com. https://public.com/julia ✨


    Paid endorsement for Public Investing, Inc. Not investment advice. All investing involves the risk of loss, including loss of principal. Brokerage services for US-listed, registered securities, options and bonds in a self-directed account are offered by Public Investing, Inc., member FINRA & SIPC. Public Investing offers a High-Yield Cash Account where funds from this account are automatically deposited into partner banks where they earn interest and are eligible for FDIC insurance; Public Investing is not a bank.


    Treasury accounts offering 6 months T-Bills are offered by Jiko Securities, Inc.,member FINRA & SIPC. Securities in your account are protected up to $500,000. For details: www.sipc.org. Banking services and the Bank Accounts are provided by Jiko Bank, a division of Mid- Central National Bank. For U.S. Investments in T-bills: Not FDIC Insured; No Bank Guarantee; May Lose Value. Treasuries risk disclosures, see https://jiko.io/docs/treasuries_risk_disclosure.pdf. See public.com/#disclosures-main


    A Bond Account is a self-directed brokerage account with Public Investing, member FINRA/SIPC and includes 10 investment-grade and high-yield bonds. As of [11/08/24], the average, annualized yield to worst (YTW) across all ten bonds is greater than 6%. A bond’s YTW is not “locked in” until the bond is purchased and is not guaranteed; you may receive less than the YTW of the bonds in the Bond Account if you sell any of the bonds before maturity or if the issuer defaults on the bond. While corporate bond yields should fall in reaction to a Federal Reserve rate cut, there is no way to know whether that will be true of the bonds in the Bond Account, how quickly bond yields will respond, or by how much they will decline. Bond Accounts are not recommendations of individual bonds or default allocations. The bonds in the Bond Account have not been selected based on your needs or risk profile. All investing involves risk. Public Investing charges a markup on each bond trade. Visit public.com/bond-account to learn more


    Timestamps:

    00:03 Introduction and welcome Jim Rogers

    00:56 Big picture view on markets and economy

    02:31 Discussion of market bubble conditions

    03:22 Recent portfolio reductions

    04:27 China and Uzbekistan investments

    07:36 China market outlook

    09:24 Signs of market hysteria to watch for

    11:37 Reaction to election and market complacency

    14:04 U.S. debt situation ($200T+ including off-balance sheet)

    17:11 U.S. dollar outlook and safe havens

    19:03 Views on Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies

    20:50 Gold vs. silver investment thesis

    22:29 Bond market outlook and inflation

    24:27 Federal Reserve rate cuts discussion

    26:36 Long-term investment trends

    29:26 Discussion of new tariff proposals

    31:06 Department of Government Efficiency outlook

    33:29 Final thoughts and personal debt warning


    #214 Peter Grandich: America's Living Beyond Its Means Will End In 'Debt Implosion' Nov 26, 2024
    Show notes

    With over 40 years of Wall Street experience and known for correctly predicting the 1987 market crash, Peter Grandich joined the Julia La Roche Show (Ep. 214) to discuss America's unsustainable debt path, the BRICS nations' challenge to U.S. dominance, his concerns about a coming debt implosion, and why "less is more" should be the guiding principle for both personal and government finances, while also sharing a powerful personal story about forgiveness and mental health.


    ✨ This episode is sponsored by Public.com. https://public.com/julia ✨


    Paid endorsement for Public Investing, Inc. Not investment advice. All investing involves the risk of loss, including loss of principal. Brokerage services for US-listed, registered securities, options and bonds in a self-directed account are offered by Public Investing, Inc., member FINRA & SIPC. Public Investing offers a High-Yield Cash Account where funds from this account are automatically deposited into partner banks where they earn interest and are eligible for FDIC insurance; Public Investing is not a bank.


    Treasury accounts offering 6 months T-Bills are offered by Jiko Securities, Inc.,member FINRA & SIPC. Securities in your account are protected up to $500,000. For details: www.sipc.org. Banking services and the Bank Accounts are provided by Jiko Bank, a division of Mid- Central National Bank. For U.S. Investments in T-bills: Not FDIC Insured; No Bank Guarantee; May Lose Value. Treasuries risk disclosures, see https://jiko.io/docs/treasuries_risk_disclosure.pdf. See public.com/#disclosures-main


    A Bond Account is a self-directed brokerage account with Public Investing, member FINRA/SIPC and includes 10 investment-grade and high-yield bonds. As of [11/08/24], the average, annualized yield to worst (YTW) across all ten bonds is greater than 6%. A bond’s YTW is not “locked in” until the bond is purchased and is not guaranteed; you may receive less than the YTW of the bonds in the Bond Account if you sell any of the bonds before maturity or if the issuer defaults on the bond. While corporate bond yields should fall in reaction to a Federal Reserve rate cut, there is no way to know whether that will be true of the bonds in the Bond Account, how quickly bond yields will respond, or by how much they will decline. Bond Accounts are not recommendations of individual bonds or default allocations. The bonds in the Bond Account have not been selected based on your needs or risk profile. All investing involves risk. Public Investing charges a markup on each bond trade. Visit public.com/bond-account to learn more


    Timestamps:

    00:03 Introduction to Peter Grandich

    01:07 Overview of America's debt problem and market outlook

    03:14 Discussion of retirement and aging crisis

    05:23 America's path and changing consumer habits

    07:48 Warning about young financial advisors' market experience

    09:42 Story behind "Wall Street Whiz Kid" title and 1987 crash

    11:19 Market outlook and Trump administration impact

    16:43 BRICS discussion and Wall Street's "biggest blunder"

    21:11 Portfolio implications of BRICS development

    24:34 Building a financial ark and investment strategy

    27:36 Trump administration challenges and debt situation

    30:02 Government employment and spending concerns

    34:56 Retirement crisis and social security challenges

    40:26 Gold outlook and critique of Bitcoin

    48:15 Debt implosion as biggest risk

    51:32 Personal story of forgiveness and mental health

    55:21 Closing thoughts on gratitude and helping others


    Links:

    https://x.com/PeterGrandich

    https://petergrandich.com/

    https://www.amazon.com/Confessions-FORMER-Wall-Street-Whiz/dp/B096LPRYW6


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