Business

The Julia La Roche Show

Julia La Roche brings her listeners in-depth conversations with some of the top CEOs, investors, founders, academics, and rising stars in business. Guests on “The Julia La Roche Show” have included Bill Ackman, Ray Dalio, Marc Benioff, Kyle Bass, Hugh Hendry, Nassim Taleb, Nouriel Roubini, David Friedberg, Anthony Scaramucci, Scott Galloway, Brent Johnson, Jim Rickards, Danielle DiMartino Booth, Carol Roth, Neil Howe, Jim Rogers, Jim Bianco, Josh Brown, and many more. Julia always makes the show about the guest, never the host. She speaks less and listens more. She always does her homework.

Latest Episodes:

#233 Michael Pento: The Great Asset Bubble Reckoning is Coming, Why We Could See A 50% Correction Feb 14, 2025

Show notes

Michael Pento, president and founder of Pento Portfolio Strategies (PPS), joins Julia La Roche on episode 233 where he delivers a stark warning about the state of financial markets. Pento challenges Fed Chair Powell's recent victory lap on inflation, pointing out that prices have remained above the Fed's 2% target for nearly four years. He outlines his thesis for what he calls a "triumvirate of bubbles" in equities, real estate, and credit markets, explaining why these interconnected asset bubbles could lead to a market correction of at least 50%. Drawing on his 34 years of experience and proprietary 20-point liquidity model, Pento provides detailed evidence for his concerns while sharing insights on portfolio positioning, the impact of Trump 2.0, and potential solutions to America's mounting debt crisis.

Sponsor: This episode is brought to you by Monetary Metals. https://monetary-metals.com/julia

Links:

https://pentoport.com/

https://twitter.com/michaelpento

0:00 Intro and welcome Michael

0:43 Powell's congressional testimony & inflation criticism

3:02 Fed's $5T post-COVID liquidity & reverse repo facility

6:43 Warning of market bubbles

7:28 Evidence of equity bubble (Market cap to GDP, price to sales)

10:27 Credit bubble & private credit markets

11:24 Liquidity draining from system

13:08 Trump 2.0 impact on markets

14:37 Analyzing market liquidity (20-point model)

18:21 Future recession & $6T deficit concerns

19:41 Potential silver lining: Market reset

21:10 Fed's rate cut dilemma

23:10 Treasury gold revaluation discussion

25:56 Solutions to US debt crisis

28:44 Current portfolio strategy

31:51 Critique of passive investment industry

35:00 Closing thoughts & contact information

#232 Ed Dowd: Why The Next Recession Is Different — The Coming Economic Reset in 2025 Feb 06, 2025

Show notes

Edward Dowd, Founding Partner of Phinance Technologies, a global macro alternative investment firm, and author of "Cause Unknown: The Epidemic of Sudden Deaths in 2021 & 2022,” joins Julia La Roche on episode 232 to his macro thesis for 2025 and beyond. Dowd explains why he believes the US economy was propped up by unsustainable factors under the Biden administration, and how a recession under Trump would actually be proof of a necessary economic restructuring in favor of the middle class.

This episode is brought to you by Monetary Metals. https://monetary-metals.com/julia

Links:

PhinanceTechnologies: https://phinancetechnologies.com/

US Economy Outlook 2025:
https://phinancetechnologies.com/Product_USEconomyOutlook2025.htm

Twitter/X: https://x.com/DowdEdward

Timestamps:

00:00 Introduction

00:34 Analyzing the unprecedented factors propping up the economy under Biden

03:14 Framing a recession as proof Trump is restructuring the economy for the middle class

05:03 How illegal immigration juiced the economy and will now reverse

07:28 Potential clash of fiscal priorities in Trump administration

09:03 Housing market correction expected as Fed-induced liquidity unwinds

11:18 Investors have the inflation story wrong, bond yields headed lower

13:12 Passive investing dominance a risk as markets turn

15:08 Recessions create generational opportunities for wealth transfer

16:11 AI bubble looks like dot-com infrastructure build-out before revenues

18:21 DeepSeek upending AI cost model, long-term bullish but near-term volatility

20:33 Gold's historical relationship with Fed rate cuts and dollar

23:24 Immigration's role in boosting money velocity and skewing economic data

26:55 Getting out of fiscal dominance to boost private investment

29:54 Using dry powder and dollar cost averaging in market downturns

32:40 Why a bond market dislocation would be fast but not necessarily a crash

35:47 Dollar strength not at risk, Treasury demand in recession

38:43 Expecting Fed cuts at or before March meeting, following T-bill market

41:24 Banks' unrealized losses shifting from duration to credit risk, CRE troubles

43:50 Doge's promising early progress on spending cuts, debt reduction

45:31 Housing transaction volumes slumping, a leading indicator

46:04 BoJ's Hobson's choice a key risk to watch, potential currency crisis

49:05 Strong dollar a sign of global dollar liquidity issues

51:23 Optimistic on government spending revelations and a potential "golden age"

53:24 Key takeaways - don't fear recession, creates opportunities, report details

#231 Chris Whalen: Fed 'Playing Chicken' with Liquidity as High Debt Levels Persist, Balance Sheet Shrinks Feb 04, 2025

Show notes

Chris Whalen, chairman of Whalen Global Advisors and author of The Institutional Risk Analyst blog, joins Julia La Roche for episode 231 where he shares his perspective on the economic and market implications of President Trump's pivot back to 19th century-style tariffs. Whalen argues that while tariffs are unlikely to significantly slow the US economy, the Fed is "playing chicken" with liquidity levels as it unwinds its balance sheet amid soaring deficits. He warns of structural issues in the mortgage market stemming from pandemic-era policies, and expects a major housing reset in 2027-28. Whalen also discusses the Treasury's funding challenges, the Trump administration's likely tax policy priorities, risks lurking beneath buoyant markets, and the limits of mixed economic data for asset allocators. Tune in for an incisive discussion on navigating an increasingly uncertain investing landscape.

Links:

Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen

Website: https://www.rcwhalen.com/

The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/

Stanley Middleman book: https://www.amazon.com/Seeing-Around-Corners-Achieving-Business/dp/B0D5PTSJVC/

Timestamps:

00:00 Introduction

01:06 Trump taking us back to the 19th century with tariffs

03:14 Tariffs unlikely to slow down the US economy much

04:57 Fed erring on side of liquidity due to federal deficit, hasn't reduced reserves

06:27 Fed playing "chicken" with liquidity levels in the economy

08:03 Politics making Fed governors protective and reluctant to cut rates

09:45 Treasury's ebb and flow of cash and Fed's balance sheet runoff impacting liquidity

12:36 Fed's difficulty in determining minimum liquidity levels

13:43 Treasury Secretary Bessent inheriting Yellen's reliance on short-term T-bills

15:42 Appetite for longer-dated Treasuries depends on the coupon

17:49 Structural impediments in the mortgage market from QE during COVID

18:19 Taxes to be a big focus for Trump administration

19:51 Danger of relying on long-dated Treasury issuance to finance deficits

21:11 Strong liquidity masking underlying economic issues

22:44 Inflation likely here to stay given high debt levels

24:14 Expecting Fed rate cuts, mini boom, then major housing reset in 2027-28

25:55 Treasury Secretary Bessent named acting head of CFPB after firing Chopra

27:13 Stock market valuations stretched, risks from passive strategies selling

29:54 Trump likened to a disruptive Andrew Jackson, investors may seek safety

31:48 Mixed economic data making asset allocation challenging

#230 Danielle DiMartino Booth On Labor Market Cracks, Recession Signals, and Why We'll Likely See A March Rate Cut Jan 30, 2025

Show notes

Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO and Chief Strategist for QI Research, a research and analytics firm, returns to The Julia La Roche Show for episode 230 for an in-person Fed day analysis following the January FOMC meeting. She breaks down Powell's press conference, newly released 2019 Fed transcripts, and signals of labor market weakness that official numbers might miss. DiMartino Booth explains why the Fed's shift to market-based inflation metrics could accelerate rate cuts, while warning about mounting evidence of job market deterioration hidden beneath headline numbers.

A global thought leader in monetary policy, economics, and finance, DiMartino Booth founded QI Research in 2015. She is the author of FED UP: An Insider’s Take on Why the Federal Reserve is Bad for America (Portfolio, Feb 2017), a business speaker, and a commentator frequently featured on CNBC, Bloomberg, Fox News, Fox Business News, BNN Bloomberg, Yahoo Finance and other major media outlets. Prior to QI Research, DiMartino Booth spent nine years at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. She served as Advisor to President Richard W. Fisher throughout the financial crisis until his retirement in March 2015. Her work at the Fed focused on financial stability and the efficacy of unconventional monetary policy.

DiMartino Booth began her career in New York at Credit Suisse and Donaldson, Lufkin & Jenrette where she worked in the fixed-income, public equity, and private equity markets. DiMartino Booth earned her BBA as a College of Business Scholar at the University of Texas at San Antonio. She holds an MBA in Finance and International Business from the University of Texas at Austin and an MS in Journalism from Columbia University.

Links:

QI Research: https://quillintelligence.com/subscriptions/

Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/dimartinobooth

Fed Up: https://www.amazon.com/Fed-Up-Insiders-Federal-Reserve/dp/0735211655

Timestamps:

0:00 Opening discussion on disinflationary pressures 1:09 Analysis of 2019 Fed transcripts and global trade impact 3:13 Discussion of Conference Board data and labor market signals 8:56 Analysis of rental market dynamics and Fed's new inflation metrics 17:36 Housing market analysis and renter dynamics 18:28 Impact of tariffs on economy and growth 21:54 Release timing of Fed transcripts and messaging 23:16 Current state of economy and job market analysis 28:54 Federal employee buyouts and workforce implications 34:11 Evolution of layoff reporting and gig economy impact 38:54 Discussion of fiscal policy mechanisms and inflation 41:30 Analysis of potential government efficiency measures 47:00 AI impact on markets and tech valuations 50:57 Societal shifts in spending habits and debt management 54:22 Closing remarks and where to find her work

#229 David Woo: DeepSeek's Massive Macro Implications, Trump 2.0 Challenges, and Top Trade Ideas Jan 28, 2025

Show notes

Macro trends blogger and economist David Woo, CEO of David Woo Unbound, joins Julia La Roche on episode 228 in a two-part interview. On Monday, he rejoined to provide analysis on China's DeepSeek AI breakthrough and the massive macro implications. On Friday, he provided a deep dive into Trump's second term strategy and the global chess moves, from US-China negotiations to the crucial role of Mexico in border security.

In Part 1, Woo discusses how DeepSeek's AI model from China has impacted markets, with the NASDAQ down 3% and Nvidia dropping over 16%. He examines how this development challenges US tech monopolies' dominance and what this means for US economic exceptionalism and tech sector valuations.

In Part 2, Woo analyzes the challenges facing Trump's second term, particularly regarding fiscal policy and the extension of the 2017 tax cuts. He highlights the critical role of the Freedom Caucus, which holds significant power with Republicans' one-seat majority in the House. The discussion covers several key areas:

The potential alliance between the Freedom Caucus and Elon Musk on fiscal policy Mexico's proactive approach to border security and trade relations Contrasting positions of Mexico and Canada on trade negotiations The complexities of the TikTok situation and potential solutions US-China relations and the possibility of returning to the Phase One trade agreement Investment opportunities in Chinese equities, the Mexican peso, and 5-year US Treasuries

Links:

Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/@DavidWooUnbound

Website: https://www.davidwoounbound.com/

Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/Davidwoounbound

Part 1: DeepSeek Discussion

0:00 Intro with David Woo 1:02 DeepSeek's impact on markets and US tech dominance 3:13 Analysis of US market capitalization growth 5:47 Discussion of US tech monopolies and cloud computing 7:14 DeepSeek's challenge to US AI dominance 9:09 Market reaction to DeepSeek's test results 11:15 Impact on technology monetization 12:17 Conclusion

Part 2

12:30 Introduction 13:21 Trump administration challenges 21:21 Freedom Caucus and fiscal policy 34:25 Trump's foreign policy approach 36:49 TikTok situation analysis 41:44 US-China trade relations 43:40 Trump's 2017 China visit story 46:03 Chinese market investment outlook 49:10 Mexico vs Canada analysis 56:10 US Treasury market outlook 59:13 Closing thoughts

#228 Steve Hanke: 'It's Going To Be A Year Of Investing Dangerously' — Bubble Detector At Highest Levels Jan 23, 2025

Show notes

Steve H. Hanke, professor of applied economics at Johns Hopkins University and the founder and co-director of the Institute for Applied Economics, Global Health, and the Study of Business Enterprise, joins Julia La Roche on episode 227 to shares his outlook for the US economy and financial markets in 2025. Applying his famed "quantity theory of money," Professor Hanke warns that the economy is set to slow this year due to the lagged effects of past monetary and fiscal policies. He cautions that it's "going to be a year of investing dangerously," with his proprietary bubble detector signaling that markets are extremely overvalued and complacent, reaching the highest levels ever. Hanke also discusses the risks posed by runaway government debt, advocates for right-sizing government's role in the economy, and shares his latest books and research.

Links:

Twitter/X: https://x.com/steve_hanke

Capital, Interest, and Waiting: Controversies, Puzzles, and New Additions to Capital Theory https://link.springer.com/book/10.1007/978-3-031-63398-0

Making Money Work: How to Rewrite the Rules of Our Financial System:

https://www.amazon.com/Making-Money-Work-Rewrite-Financial/dp/1394257260

https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/making-money-work-matt-sekerke/1146170520

Timestamps:

00:00 Introduction

01:11 Macro outlook using quantity theory of money

03:38 Impact of Fed policy on asset prices, inequality, and inflation

07:06 How Fed-driven inequality influenced 2024 election outcome

10:43 China's economic troubles and deflationary risks

13:28 Europe's economic stagnation and fiscal woes

15:38 Likelihood of a recession in 2025 under the new administration

17:36 Parallels to the Reagan era and smart economic policies

20:32 Concerns about Trump's mercantilist trade policies and border control plans

23:43 Hanke's bubble detector signaling overvalued, complacent markets

26:46 Runaway US national debt - the lying price problem and moral hazard

30:06 Restoring confidence and implementing a constitutional debt brake

32:00 Right-sizing government to boost economic growth

33:53 Simplifying taxes with a flat tax

35:48 Hanke's latest books and how to follow his work

#227 Ted Oakley: Almost Everybody is Complacent Right Now Jan 21, 2025

Show notes

Ted Oakley, Managing Partner and Founder of Oxbow Advisors, joins Julia La Roche on episode 226 to share his perspective on the biggest challenges facing investors in 2025. Oakley discusses the potential collision between high government debt levels and rising interest rates. He expresses concerns about the new administration's economic plans sparking inflation, and the difficulties in refinancing government debt given budget shortfalls. Oakley also shares his market outlook, highlighting risks around investor complacency, the popularity of passive investing, and the importance of maintaining liquidity. He provides insights from his decades of investing experience, including how he navigated previous turbulent markets. Oakley also previews his upcoming book on generational wealth and the lessons learned from his own upbringing.

With more than forty years of experience in advising high-net-worth clients in the investment industry, Oakley implements the firm’s proprietary investment strategies and the “Oxbow Principles” to provide a unique investment perspective.

He is a frequent guest on FOX Business News, Bloomberg Radio, KITCO News, Cheddar TV, Yahoo Finance, and many more. Oakley is a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) and a Certified Financial Planner (CFP). He is a member of the Austin Society of Financial Analysts. He is also a Partner of Herndon Plant Oakley Ltd., an investment company. He is a Board Member of Texas State Aquarium, American Bank, and American Bank Holding Company. Mr. Oakley is a United States Army Veteran. Oakley began his career in Dallas, Texas, over 35 years ago. He is the author of nine books: You Sold Your Company, $20 Million and Broke, Rich Kids Broke Kids – The Failure of Traditional Estate Planning, Crazy Time – Surviving the First 12 Months after Selling Your Company, Wall Street Lies, Danger Time, My Story, The Psychology of Staying Rich, and Your Money Mentality. Oakley’s primary philanthropic interest is helping children. He is Chairman Emeritus and Founder of the Foster Angels of South Texas, the largest foster child foundation in South Texas, as well as Chairman Emeritus and Founder of Austin, Texas-based Foster Angels of Central Texas. Also, President and Founder of Advocates for Foster Children Foundation.

00:00 Introduction and welcome 01:52 Macro outlook: debt vs interest rates 04:42 Inflation concerns with new administration
06:30 Challenges refinancing government debt 09:17 Markets driven by rumors over fundamentals 11:12 Government's economic impact; recession risks 15:54 Oakley's past performance in turbulent markets 19:11 Risks of passive investing given demographics 22:05 Market complacency and emotional investing 25:23 Finding value in stable dividend stocks 28:04 Views on Bitcoin as speculation 31:47 Fed's interest rate dilemma 34:12 Potential paths out of US debt problem 37:29 Recession risks from spending cuts 39:16 Maintaining high liquidity given risks 42:10 Upcoming book on generational wealth 46:40 Instilling work ethic despite wealth 49:41 Closing thoughts on balance and liquidity

#226 Rick Rule: Rick Rule: "I Am Cautious" - Holding Cash For The Coming Squeeze Jan 16, 2025

Show notes

Rick Rule, president and CEO of Rule Investment Media and co-founder of Battle Bank, joins the Julia La Roche Show to explain why he remains surprised by economic resilience despite mounting challenges, breaks down why gold could reach $9,000-$10,000 as governments inflate away debt obligations, and shares specific sectors he sees as undervalued including oil & gas, community banks, and wholesale insurance. Rule also provides a sobering analysis of America's $130+ trillion in total obligations, explains why the government will likely choose gradual inflation over outright default, and offers advice for younger generations on navigating what he expects to be a challenging decade ahead.

Timestamps: 00:00 Welcome to Rick Rule 01:01 Economic resilience despite challenges 02:52 Winners and losers in current economy 03:16 Warning signs: Fed losing control of long yields 04:33 Value opportunities in out-of-favor stocks 05:26 Gold price outlook and analysis 07:34 Real inflation vs CPI discussion 08:33 Foreign government gold buying 10:59 Price targets and Warren Buffett's wisdom 12:06 1970s inflation comparison 14:01 Impact of high inflation environments 17:13 Entitlement obligations analysis 19:37 Social Security reform discussion 23:00 10-year reckoning outlook 24:59 Department of Government Efficiency critique 28:15 Solutions to government spending 30:23 Monetary reset scenarios 35:04 Investment opportunities discussion 39:07 Canadian political outlook 44:46 Portfolio positioning and cash levels 47:48 Closing thoughts and upcoming events

Links:

Rick Rule Symposium: https://registration.allintheloop.net/register/event/rick-rule-symposium-2025-ccha?via=julia Rule Investment Media: https://ruleinvestmentmedia.com

#225 Marc Faber: "They Will Print Money Like There Is No Tomorrow" - Debt Spiral Risk, The Trump Top, Why Asset Inflation Is Ending | The Gloom, Boom & Doom Report Jan 14, 2025

Show notes

Marc Faber, editor and publisher of The Gloom, Boom & Doom Report, joins the Julia La Roche Show to break down why he believes asset inflation is coming to an end while consumer price inflation accelerates. He explains why 70% of households are struggling despite government statistics showing growth, critiques Federal Reserve policies that favor Wall Street over Main Street, and shares his framework for portfolio allocation across real estate, stocks, bonds, and precious metals. Faber also provides a tour of his rare book and communist memorabilia collection in his office while sharing thoughts on capitalism, society, and his newest motorcycle. Timestamps: 00:00 Welcome to Marc Faber 00:57 Macro overview and government statistics 02:52 Fed policy favoring the wealthy 04:41 Political shifts in Europe and Argentina 06:09 Market outlook and policy implications 08:57 US indices topping out analysis 11:12 Value opportunities in Asian markets 13:37 Gold price history and precious metals 14:35 Bond market size discussion 16:37 Monetary inflation distortions 19:56 Debt spiral and hyperinflation risks 21:21 Insurance and property discussion 23:02 Government role in economy 26:00 Trust and capitalism discussion 28:01 Trump administration outlook 32:00 Real economy recession analysis 34:35 Asset vs consumer price inflation 40:04 Bureau of Labor Statistics critique 42:49 End of asset inflation thesis 44:35 Cost of living increases examples 47:24 Portfolio allocation framework 49:55 Communist memorabilia collection 54:21 Closing thoughts Links: The Gloom, Boom & Doom Report: https://www.gloomboomdoom.com

#224 George Goncalves: The 2025 'Balancing Act' — Different Starting Points From Trump 1.0, Take Medicine Early or Keep Spending & What Could Break Markets Jan 09, 2025

Show notes

George Goncalves, head of U.S. macro strategy at MUFG, joins the Julia La Roche Show to discuss why 2025 will be a "balancing act" as markets transition from record highs to new economic realities. In this wide-ranging conversation, Goncalves explains why the Trump administration faces a critical choice between taking "short-term pain for long-term gain" early in the term or continuing fiscal largesse, analyzes why the 10-year yield breaking above 4.75% could trigger market turbulence, and breaks down why the Federal Reserve needs to keep cutting rates to avoid a recession in the second half of the year.

Links:

https://x.com/bondstrategist

Timestamps:

00:00 Welcome to George Goncalves

01:17 Background and macro framework

03:15 2025 as a "balancing act"

05:35 Market complacency and valuations

07:19 Short-term pain for long-term gain

09:43 Business vs. government-led growth

11:01 Different starting points from Trump 1.0

13:38 Economy propped up by fiscal spending

16:21 Interest rates and fiscal policy