The Dividend Cafe

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Daily Covid and Markets - Tuesday July 28 Jul 28, 2020

Show notes

COVID Health Information

• Cases were down 8.3% from the same day last week, and these two consecutive days of week-over-week decline represent the first two days of such in about eight weeks.

• Testing is up, case growth is dropping, so positivity rate is dropping. All data points have more room to go, though.

• The vaccine candidate from Pfizer/BioNTech have begun stage three trials and are targeting a regulatory review by October. Moderna is also in a large, final-stage trial for their candidate.

• Dr. Francis Collins, the Director of the National Institutes of Health (Dr. Fauci’s boss), has provided some stunningly useful insights in understanding the greater resistance to COVID embedded in the society than we previously thought. T cell resistance based on past exposure to other coronaviruses (sometimes the cause of colds we have all had) is explaining a larger immunity and resistance than previously understood.

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Replay - National Conference Call on Market Outlook July 27, 2020 Jul 27, 2020

Show notes

This is the replay of the Market Outlook National Video Call with David L. Bahnsen and Scott Gamm from July 27, 2020.

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Financial Certainty in a Time of Global Uncertainty Jul 24, 2020

Show notes

Today's Dividend Cafe reminds of the uncertainty that exists around the world today. Europe may seem to have rectified some parts of their uncertainty, but they invited new uncertainties in doing so. The U.S./China tensions are not solving themselves, and you may have read somewhere that COVID case growth hasn't solved itself yet either (highly contagious viruses are interesting, that way). It is a both unavoidable and unsettling reality of life right now - many conditions, globally and not just domestically, are uncertain.

In answer to this uncertainty, the Dividend Cafe provides a little refresher of some of the most basic investment principles we believe in, applied to the methodology The Bahnsen Group has built its business around - dividend growth.

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Daily Covid and Markets - Thursday July 23 Jul 23, 2020

Show notes

Data this week has been quite a mixed bag with some of the encouraging data being more encouraging than I expected, and some of the negative data being more negative than expected. “Sustained outright declines in new cases are not that far off” [Ian Shepherdson, Pantheon Macroeconomics], but right now we are just watching the new case curve peak, and disparate results in different states makes it all tough to analyze.

The chart and information I provide at the top of our FACT section below is, I think, the most important part of today’s missive. Fundamentally, these three realities have all held up incredibly true: (1) Case growth has been mostly amongst the young and healthier, and (2) Treatments have substantially improved since March/April.

I was fascinated to see that Sweden had 132 new cases countrywide yesterday, while Australia had 468. It is just an interesting contrast between a vigorous lock-down and shut-out of visitors (Australia), versus the encouragement of a herd immunity build-up. Sweden’s new cases and mortalities are now so low that all eyes are really on whether or not they get a sort of “second wave.”

The chairman of the Scientific Advisory Committee of the National Institute of Epidemiology in India stated yesterday that Dehli, India is fast approaching herd immunity, another massive world city showing huge positivity in seroprevalence tests and therefore a large part of the population already infected.

Major League Baseball season officially kicks off tonight, and while fans are not allowed for now even with masks and distancing (no comment), it is symbolically and substantively delightful that the Yankees will be teeing off on the Washington Nationals tonight. I expect big ratings. Really big.

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Daily Covid and Markets - Wednesday July 22 Jul 22, 2020

Show notes

The market was up 165 points today, mostly on a flat/choppy day that simply escalated in the last two hours of trading.

The general mood was that reports the Republicans are open to extending the federal unemployment benefit at a $400/month level through December drove the last day market move higher, but I am skeptical. It is certainly possible, but it strikes me as utterly incomprehensible that the market would not have known Republicans were going to do something like this.

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Daily Covid and Markets - Tuesday July 21 Jul 21, 2020

Show notes

The market closed up +150 points today, though the Nasdaq sold off. Energy led the way today, while Health Care & Technology were the losers. As for health data: Case growth Monday was 4.2% lower than Monday of last week. The national percentage of positive tests was down to 7.9%, the lowest in nearly two weeks.

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Daily Covid and Markets - Monday July 20 Jul 20, 2020

Show notes

The market was flat today in the Dow, but both the Nasdaq and the S&P were up (the Nasdaq meaningfully so after last week’s travails).

Today’s missive really, truly does go all around the horn – lots and lots of up to date health info, and some useful info with the stimulus bill, housing, the Fed, and more.

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Running & Eating Jul 17, 2020

Show notes

In this week's Dividend Cafe we focus on the trade-off of volatility and expected returns

A market summary of the week that just was
Where the next stimulus bill may be heading
Why QE is not acting like debt monetization (yet)

... and so much more

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Daily Covid and Markets - Thursday July 16 Jul 16, 2020

Show notes

The market missed out on its first five consecutive days of price increase by dropping 135 points today …

Initial jobless claims came in at 1.3 million for the week, a tad higher than 1.25 million expected. Continuing claims dropped to 17.3 million, a bigger drop than expected and now down 30% from the 25 million high of March. Retail sales were up +7.5% in June vs. +5% expected.

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Daily Covid and Markets - Wednesday July 15 Jul 15, 2020

Show notes

The market closed up 230 points today, zig-zagging around most of the day after opening up +350 points.

The driver was optimism around vaccine talk (and it is not just one source of optimism, as you will see in today’s Health Data). Earnings season is too young to be much of a driver but I selfishly like what I have seen so far. Let’s jump around the bend as always …

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

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