The Dividend Cafe

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Daily Covid and Markets - Tuesday July 14 Jul 14, 2020

Show notes

Futures were up close to a hundred points last night, vacillating between the flat line and +100, at 3:30am ET this morning they were flat, and by 4:00am they were +100. But really it was all worthless until bank earnings started coming in, and when the first mega-bank reported their results, futures had a mixed response (some names up, some names down) The market opened up a bit and throughout the day grinded higher. Bottom line, by 4pm ET, the market closed up 557 points, and the Nasdaq even ended up despite moments of big sell-off mid-day.

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Replay - National Conference Call on Market Outlook July 13, 2020 Jul 13, 2020

Show notes

This is the replay of the Market Outlook National Video Call with David L. Bahnsen and Scott Gamm.

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Grown-Ups and Unavoidable Tradeoffs Jul 10, 2020

Show notes

This week’s Dividend Cafe is a long and juicy one – lots of topics, lots of practical subjects (see list below), and plenty for the wonky types and those who loathe such verbose diversions. But what is most important to me in this week’s Dividend Cafe is that it addresses the issue I believe is most necessary for grown-ups to deal with in this day age:

In this week’s Dividend Cafe we will: • Recap the week that just was in markets • Make the case for a market change in the near future – not one defined by all going down or all going up, but rather one defined by a shift in leadership, away from the popularity group and into the more fundamental group. • Set the table for a “two-act play” around how we evaluate the economy – the lockdown recession and recovery from such; followed by the “aftershock” phase that deals with structural ramifications from that first phase • The burden of where rates are now and where they have been • Ask what has happened to oil prices in 2020, and why! • Take a look at what the real issue I have with bonds is as I look out into the future • Note the threats hanging over FANG • Look at what to expect out of the earnings season that begins this week • Ask where are we with the U.S. dollar, and what becomes the more investible equity space when the dollar declines? The answer may surprise you. • Provide a little history on the quarters and years that follow strong quarters. It’s rare to get such universally compelling data. • Provide our weekly economic report card of the good, bad, and ugly out there, with a special look this week at manufacturing, services, air travel, and more. • Do Politics & Money • And in the Chart of the Week, let you decided if we are inflationary woods, or a deflationary jungle

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Daily Covid and Markets - Thursday July 9 Jul 09, 2020

Show notes

I’ll save you the play by play of what happened with futures last night and this morning, but it was pretty boring. And the markets moved higher a bit pre-market when the jobs numbers came out (see below). But what moved markets lower during trading today seems to be (and I say “seems” because it really doesn’t seem to be much of a market moving event to me, but it was perfectly time to the release of the news) the announcement that the Supreme Court is allowing the New York DA to get Trump’s tax returns. Anyways, the market went down over 500 points, but closed down 350, and actually the S&P was down less than half what the Dow was, and the Nasdaq was modestly up today. So it was not a normal day.

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Daily Covid and Markets - Wednesday July 8 Jul 08, 2020

Show notes

Futures were modestly positive all of last evening and into my morning wake-up. They turned negative a few hours before the market opened and bounced around pre-market. The market opened up a bit, then dropped a few hundred points, then bounced around throughout the day, and rallied into the close to end up +177 points on the day. Not a huge day one way or the other, but some intra-day volatility (as usual).

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Daily Covid and Markets - Tuesday July 7 Jul 07, 2020

Show notes

I woke up this morning to an overnight Nikkei that had dropped a tad, European markets down a tad, and U.S. futures down 100 points or so. Futures eased lower throughout the morning (which I might add, now total about six hours before the market opens, versus three hours on west coast – and I love it!) … The market opened down 200 and stayed in that range most of the day before petering out in the final hour of trading and closing near the low (in fairness, this would have been five days in a row of the market being up) …

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Daily Covid and Markets - Monday July 6 Jul 07, 2020

Show notes

Market futures never did point down last evening, and I woke up very early eastern time to futures pointing up 450 points. After a cup of coffee I realized that China’s market was up a stunning 5.7% today alone. Consider this for those mystified by the actions of the U.S. stock market: the Shanghai Composite Index is now the highest it has been since early 2018. We live in crazy times.

Anyways, the Dow opened up big, and traded between +300 and +400 most of the day, and closed right near the high of the day, up +460 points.

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

History and Opportunity Jul 03, 2020

Show notes

In this week's Dividend Cafe we will look at:

The real lesson of 2020 so far, evidenced in Q1 being the 9th worst quarter in history, and Q2 being the 9th best quarter in history, and what behavioral lessons some investors may want to pick up from this. We do an extensive dive into what lies ahead for 2020, and our views on economic recovery, stimulus, a vaccine, volatility, and so much more.

What the jobs report yesterday did to encourage us, and what is still lacking - and will be for quite some time

Why Fed liquidity provisions may or may not matter to the real economy (i.e. jobs), but certainly matter to investors

The under-appreciated tensions coming to the surface with China after Bejing's passage of this Hong Kong security measure.

What history says about an investor's timeline and corresponding expectation

How foreign investors apparently feel about American markets right now

And all the economic data for the week to form that perfectly mixed picture of ambiguity. Retail. Consumption. Jobs. Capex. Copper. Checking account balances. We have it all.

And in Politics & Money ... the betting odds are blowing out for Joe Biden; what does that mean for investors, and what might the next three months of the stock market tell us about what to expect in November

Finally, in the Chart of the Week, some calendar history to take us home

Let's jump in to the Dividend Cafe!

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Daily Covid and Markets Podcast - Thursday July 2 Jul 02, 2020

Show notes

The market closed the shortened holiday week up over 800 points for the week, with the market up almost 100 points today. Futures were really flat last night, and at 4:30am Eastern this morning were up over 200 points. The jobs report came at 8:30am ET and futures added on another 200 points. Markets were up 400 points at one point and moved up and down throughout the day before selling off substantially in the final 30-45 minutes of trading (not a surprise at all going into the long holiday weekend).

Regarding that jobs report, the big bullish news was that 4.8 million jobs were added back in June, about 1.6 million more than the 3.2 million consensus expectation. I want to reiterate – the fact that the “experts” continue to get economic projected data so wrong is not so much that they are incompetent as that this is all very, very hard – and not based on solid historical precedents. That said, I would recommend the pundits moderate their predictions with greater humility, but again, this is uncharted territory.

2.1 million jobs in leisure and hospitality were brought back. This makes it all the more important that policymakers not capitulate to the panic mob and allow a safe and sensible re-opening to continue. More importantly, it does show a continued trend that job losses were initially classified as temporary, are indeed proving to be temporary. Now, permanent job losses were up 500,000, and that is a cause for concern. The percentage of the unemployment we have classified as “temporary” as gone from 78% to 59%, yet that is largely because a good portion of those temporarily unemployed people have been hired back.

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Replay - National Conference Call on Market Outlook June 29, 2020 Jun 29, 2020

Show notes

This is the audio replay of National Call Market Outlook from TBG CIO - David L. Bahnsen. With Host Scott Gamm of Strategy Voice and Associates.

Discussed is the impact of increased COVID cases in certain states on markets, and will attempt to evaluate the latest economic and investment developments, and what we are anticipating as we officially enter the second half of the year.

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

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