The Dividend Cafe

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**The Dividend Cafe**

The Dividend Cafe is your portal for market perspective that is virtually conflict-free, rooted in deep philosophical commitments about how capital should be managed, and understandable for all sorts of investors. Host David L. Bahnsen is a frequent guest on CNBC, Bloomberg, and Fox Business. He is the author of the books, Crisis of Responsibility: Our Cultural Addiction to Blame and How You Can Cure It (Post Hill Press), The Case for Dividend Growth: Investing in a Post-Crisis World (Post Hill Press), and Full-Time: Work and the Meaning of Life (Post Hill Press).

Latest Episodes:

The Fed in a Post-COVID World Aug 28, 2020

Show notes

In this week’s Dividend Cafe we will:

• Review the week that was in markets

• Really spend the time we need looking at what the Fed has done, will do, and will never, ever do

• Provide five key investment implications to the monetary regime we now live in

• Do a “Euro”pean history lesson for you, and look at what that means for investors now

• Provide an explanation of how business investment works, what the hold-up has been, and why it matters

• Politics and Money – a look at this week’s Republican convention

• Chart of the Week

Let’s jump in, to the Dividend Cafe!

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Covid and Markets - Thursday August 27 Aug 27, 2020

Show notes

The market rose 160 points today, perhaps from a mix of reasons (Fed talk, hurricane control, and COVID testing news – see below). The S&P was up just a tad, and the Nasdaq was actually down on the day.

I do feel like today’s missive is a meaty one, so I hope you will enjoy reading it as much as I enjoyed writing it. I confess, this “every other day” missive schedule has been much more manageable for yours truly! Okay, let’s go around the horn …

COVID Health Information • Confirmed new cases are now down over 37% from the July peak of a month ago, and are down over 12% on daily average basis from last week. The case decline is rapid, and while I am of the opinion it must be hospitalizations and case severity that drives public policy, not merely the existence of cases, the actual decline in cases adds ammo to the arguments for greater freedom of movement and activity (an economic plus).

• The only states not seeing rapid decline in hospitalizations are Alaska, Hawaii, Montana, and West Virginia – more or less the overall national trend and data reality where there is a real COVID presence is in overwhelmingly declining COVID hospitalizations.

• And even apart from the dropping hospitalizations, and dropping cases, the hospitalizations-per-confirmed cases has dropped substantially from the spring levels, unambiguously supporting the notion that the recent infections affected a less vulnerable and more healthy group, and lending support to the idea many epidemiologists have proposed that the virus is losing potency.

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Covid and Markets - Tuesday August 25 Aug 25, 2020

Show notes

The market dropped 60 points today but the S&P and Nasdaq were both up. It was a pretty mixed day across sectors and market categories.

I am going to write more about it in Friday’s Dividend Cafe but the news today that Secretary Mnuchin and Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer spoke with Chinese Vice Premier Liu He yesterday, and that all commitments of the phase one trade accord were reaffirmed, is substantial (at least for now in containing potential tail risk).

One of the advantages in this new schedule to my missives is that it gives me the chance to better broaden the scope (not ignoring the other categories besides COVID health data). Today we cover all the bases, and they are worth your read.

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Replay - National Conference Call on Market Outlook August 24, 2020 Aug 24, 2020

Show notes

Up to date information regarding Covid and Markets with a focus on the impact of the pending elections and Federal Reserve guidance.

With David L. Bahnsen and Scott Gamm.

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

We're All Ideologues Now Aug 21, 2020

Show notes

This week we look at …

• The week that was in the market (and get ready for the final week of August ahead) • Really, truly unpack why dividend growth investing is so important, and why the dividend itself is such a small part of that, and yet such a big part of it • The deflationary nature of debt, and how all that works … A special feature! • Valuations in the stock market, here, and in third world countries • China. Enough said. • The state of the economy (as we do every week) • Politics and Money (as we also do every week, even when it hurts) • … and so much more

With our thinking caps on, let’s jump in to the Dividend Cafe!

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Daily Covid and Markets - Thursday August 20 Aug 20, 2020

Show notes

The market was up ~50 points today with the S&P and Nasdaq up higher than the Dow on a percentage basis. Markets had been down last night in very late night futures ~200 points, allegedly on Fed comments regarding yield curve control (please). Then markets evened up, allegedly on reports that China trade talks were re-scheduled (please). Then markets dropped a bit after the weekly jobless claims came in worse than expected (maybe). And by the end of the trading day, markets had grinded out an up day, and big tech led the way.

The weekly jobless claims number came in at 1.1 million, far higher than the 960k we got down to last week and the 925k expected this week. Continuing claims, though, declined by another 636,000 though, bringing that number below 15 million.

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Daily Covid and Markets - Tuesday August 18 Aug 18, 2020

Show notes

The market was down about 65 points today, but the S&P and the Nasdaq were up, and in fact, the S&P closed at a new all-time high today.

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The Kamala Cafe Aug 14, 2020

Show notes

• Market Recap of the week that just was • A little reality check on interest rates • A report card for earnings season for Q2 • Anyone remember China? • Commercial real estate lending • Restaurants looking for some help – and possibly going to get it • Is our monetary system working? • Economic report card for the week (jobs, retail sales, consumer credit, and more) • Politics and Money – a bit more of a look at Kamala Harris as the VP pick and what it means to markets and policy (and so, so, so much more) • Chart of the Week

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Daily Covid and Markets - Thursday August 13 Aug 13, 2020

Show notes

The market dropped 80 points today though at one point was down ~200 points before rallying over half of the ddrop back in the final hour of trading. The weekly jobless claims came in below one million (963,000 to be precise), below the symbolic million mark for the first time since the COVID moment began, and well below the 1.1 million expectation. Continuing claims came in at 15.5 million, down 604,000 from last week. The numbers aren’t “good” – but they are “getting better” – and they are “getting better more than expected” …

COVID Health Information • It certainly is reasonable that there are differing opinions as to “where” the herd immunity threshold may be reached, and whether one believes it is a lower number or higher number, the “variable” that sits in the middle is T-cell immunity which is a somewhat unknown component in getting to the total number. Nobel laureate and Stanford Professor, Michael Levitt, has been an incredible resource throughout this whole affair, and has provided the most reliable forecasts thus far about “excess mortalities” and other key measures. He has placed the herd immunity threshold at 15-20% (though again, others place it much higher, with varying differences as to where the T-cell immunity level sits in the equation). The University of Oxford study has placed the number closer to 25%, again, because of exposures many have already had to other coronaviruses, as well as what immunity exists from natural (t-cell) resistance.

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Daily Covid and Markets - Wednesday August 12 Aug 12, 2020

Show notes

Market futures were up another 250 points at 3:45am this morning and I immediately thought, “Oh, does Iran have a working vaccine now?” (If you are missing my joke, see yesterday’s missive on Russia). But in all seriousness, markets continue to be trading with very positive sentiment, and with no regard for a stimulus deal (more on that below). The markets ended up today nearly 300 points, and the S&P and Nasdaq each did even better. I simply do not believe the market cares (right now) about a stimulus deal, and the markets digestion (all summer) of the COVID reality has been remarkable.

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

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