The Dividend Cafe

Latest Episodes:

Politics Fourth: Getting our Priorities Straight Sep 18, 2020

Show notes

• The big unknown of corporate profits in the here and now and future • Impact of perpetual quasi-COVID lockdowns • The ambiguity of the present economic condition • Operation Magnify • Why financial services are under-valued, but not for the reason many think • A sober assessment of the state of stock buybacks • Why corporate bond yields matter so much to stocks, and everything else • Night trading more important than day trading? • Politics and Money: A new poll you haven’t seen in the news • Chart of the Week:

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Covid and Markets - Thursday September 17 Sep 17, 2020

Show notes

The market dropped 130 points today (Dow). Futures were down 300 when I woke up this morning and the market opened down 300, then actually went up on the day, then fell over 300 again, then zigged and zagged into the close before closing down 130 (-0.47%). The Nasdaq was down 1.25%, and it remains off right around 10% from its high.

The weekly jobless claims came in at 860,000, as expected, but continuing claims dropped by almost a million, landing at 12.6 million (now half of that 25 million high we had early on).

There is a lot today – from Housing to the Fed to policy to oil – the way I like these missives to go – but starting off with all the COVID news that is fit to print …

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Covid and Markets - Tuesday September 15 Sep 15, 2020

Show notes

COVID Health Information • The seven-day average of 34.7k new daily cases is down 48.4% from the July 22 peak.

• The BioNTech/Pfizer vaccine project has said they believe it is “likely” their vaccine will be distributable before the end of the year. They obviously cannot predict what the FDA approval process will look like but there seems to be a lot of confidence in the direction of their vaccine trials. They recently expanded their trial pool from 30,000 to 44,000.

• Madrid’s hospitalizations through the so-called “second wave” of Spain are 1/7th (14%) that of what they were in the spring. I hate being so redundant with you but often the news itself is redundant. The cases are less severe, the people are healthier, the treatments are better, and so forth and so on

• New cases in Denmark have tripled, whereas in Sweden they have barely moved. As for what could possibly be causing this dynamic, I guess I would refer you to:all the media reports covering this prior issues of COVID & Markets.

• JP Morgan has determined that productivity does, indeed, fall for employees working from home. In other news, I have determined that the sun is hot.

• The University of Pittsburgh School of Medicine has a promising development you may want to read more about.

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

National Video Conference Call Replay - The 2020 Election and Your Portfolio - Sept. 14, 2020 Sep 14, 2020

Show notes

Download White Paper HERE - https://thebahnsengroup.com/dividend-cafe/special-election-issue-dividend-cafe-sept-11/#download

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Dividend Cafe - David L. Bahnsen from NYC on 9/11 Anniversary Sep 11, 2020

Show notes

David reminisces about the 9/11 and the aftermath of the city and the people of New York City.

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Covid and Markets - Thursday September 10 Sep 10, 2020

Show notes

The market dropped 400 points today despite opening up over 200 points. The 600-point intra-day reversal was led by the Nasdaq’s almost 400-point intra-day reversal, bringing the recent peak-to-trough drop now to ~9.6%, so not quite 10% correction territory on a closing basis.

There was not a particular catalyst to the sell-off. The weekly jobless claims number came an hour before the market opened and the tick down did not begin until ninety minutes after the market opened. The fact that the Democrats blocked the Republican stimulus bill from coming forward for discussion was obviously not a surprise. The selling pressure in big tech just hasn’t settled yet, and that is where we are. Weekly jobless claims stayed around 850,000 on the week, and continuing claims stayed around 13.4 million …

Okay – around the horn we go!

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Covid and Markets - Tuesday September 8 Sep 08, 2020

Show notes

The market dropped for the third day in a row, again led substantially by the sell-off in big tech (the Nasdaq is down 10% since last Wednesday’s late day high). The Dow is down ~1,600 points since mid-week last week, about half of the drop in the Nasdaq in percentage terms. Futures were pointing up ~200 points last night, but today the market opened down 400 points and chopped around throughout the day, taking two turns down in the final two hours of trading.

Expect a bit more markets and economic coverage in this week’s missives than normal because the Friday Dividend Cafe will be exclusively focused as the special election issue. We are entering a new phase of the COVID economic recovery that I believe will move slower than the first half has moved. A lot of the low-hanging fruit of job recovery and activity-resurgence has taken place, but normalized conditions are a ways off and will likely see a slowdown in pace of recovery from here.

COVID Health Information

• I am sure the Labor Day report of just 27,000 new cases yesterday was low around holiday reporting issues. The 7-day moving average is dropping ever so slowly. • The 7-day rolling average for daily mortalities is down 12% from the week prior and down 22% from a month ago. • The leaders of nine major pharma companies, all engaged in leading vaccine efforts, sent a public letter vowing to take no shortcuts en route to a COVID vaccine. • Incredible news (I will keep this updated as long as Dr. Bostom keeps maintaining the source report): 26,000 alleged COVID positive cases on college campuses now; zero hospitalizations

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

A Story Better than Tech Stocks Sep 04, 2020

Show notes

In this week’s Dividend Cafe we will address all of this and more:

• Market week in review – is this the tech correction we have been anticipating??? • A vast and thrilling ride through the world of zero% interest rates, and what this new monetary regime means for the economy, the future, and oh yeah, all investors! • A tale of two economies • Something to really worry about • The danger of stock splits • The Pro and Con case for the bank sector • Economic Report Card for the Week (special attention to today’s jobs report) • Politics & Money – update on the election betting odds, scenarios for election night, and general volatility expectations • Chart of the Week – a little history of Nasdaq corrections …

A perfect way to launch your Labor Day weekend … Let’s jump in, to the Dividend Cafe!

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Covid and Markets - Thursday September 3 Sep 03, 2020

Show notes

COVID Health Information

• Confirmed cases in the U.S. are running about flat this week to last week, which leads some to say, “oh good, cases are not further increasing,” and it leads others to say, “see, the rate of decline has flat-lined.” It would seem to me that neither posture is the most astute given all we have learned, particularly in the context of applying COVID to our economic and market and societal realities. But as long as the focus is wrongly put on cases versus the other metrics we have learned are more systemically significant, that debate will likely continue.

• If one were inclined to earnestly follow the case growth numbers, though, and I certainly provide them here (despite my insistence that they are of little use I still play along), it would be noteworthy that while case growth has flattened, testing is actually up 6%, with the positivity rate is down to the 5-handle we were waiting for. In other words, adjusted for testing, cases are continuing to decline.

• If there is one “prediction” I can offer here (and if there is anything NO ONE should be doing around COVID based on the last four or five months, it is making predictions), it is that we will see cases on college campuses in the coming weeks – cases that will create little or no hospitalizations – result in the next round of headlines and hand-wringing (and everyone can decide for themselves if such will be justified or not). P.S. – 546 positives art University of Kansas – zero hospitalizations; Ohio State University 882 positives, zero hospitalizations.

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Covid and Markets - Tuesday September 1 Sep 01, 2020

Show notes

The extraordinary drop in new cases has slowed down, as expected. New cases seem to have flat-lined even as hospitalizations and mortalities continue declining, pointing to the increasingly less symptomatic and lethal nature of COVID cases currently being tested.

Color me confused by analysts and experts who are confused by the low mortality metrics coming out of European countries in their late summer increase of new cases. I would think everyone would have expected the low mortality rates Europe is seeing based on the experience of the U.S. this summer (better treatment, healthier infections, less severe virus, etc.).

The CFA Institute published a provocative article last week from Laurence Siegel (Director of Research at the CFA Institute Research Foundation) and Stephen Sexauer (CIO at the San Diego Employees Retirement Pension) looking at the dangers of COVID that are not specific to COVID (Bastiat’s law of the unseen versus the seen). This chart in particular grabbed me.

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

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