Saxo Market Call

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Market wrap and a big US mid-term preview. Oct 30, 2026

Show notes

Today - a market wrap after another big downdraft in AI names and even the broader market this time, as Amazon and Intel results sent chills and on the fear and loathing on the risks of the Iran War resuming in force. But most of all, a very long form take on the US mid-term elections next Tuesday, with thoughts on what could be at stake for both markets and US politics, not to mention the longer term outlook and important durable themes. Today's pod hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.

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The slide deck for the US mid-terms.
Specific US mid-term elections where the issue of data centers is in play.
The SCMP on US tipping culture gone out of control - also whether it is a part of the creeping cost of living problem in the US and whether it is getting picked up in official measures of inflation. I have noticed this on travels back to the US in recent years - very annoying. Shouldn't businesses pay their workers a living wage rather than harassing customers?
Thoughtful Saxo Market Call podcast listener Mat Casey sent in his own vibe check of the American voter, especially on the issue of AI in his travels across America.
Michael McNair ponders whether the Binance hack could have been due to an employee compromised by blackmail linked to AI hacking tools. In other words, nasty operators can gain access to the corporate and other systems by hacking individuals' lives to use their online activity to blackmail them into surrendering their credentials.

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FOMC semi dovish. Alphabet and ServiceNow crater on earnings. Oct 29, 2026

Show notes

Today, the market ended Wednesday on a positive move as the FOMC proved semi-dovish, at least according to market impressions, while the vibe changed sharply after the close on Alphabet's earnings miss relative to expectations, though most of the sentiment damage seems limited. ServiceNow got fewer headlines but was down 18.5% on its earnings report, triggering contagion across SaaS stocks. Elsewhere, we break down the FOMC event yesterday, today's ECB and the focus on a successor for President Lagarde as she announced today she will leave her post in February. This and much more on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.

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John's The FX Trader from today.
Aswath Damodaran takes a stab at assessing Anthropic's market value, wild assumptions and all, ahead of its IPO. Yes, the assumptions for his model inputs may prove way off, but once we know more in the quarters ahead, we can plug some of the new figures into Damodaran's still useful overall model. Other voices are certainly sceptical.
The SCMP covers the EU weighing in on ditching Chinese suppliers, which European businesses are not happy about. Sovereign control of supply chains versus the hoping that China will remain a reliable supplier without imposing conditions - which side wins out?
An Italian advisor to Italy's Ministry of Defence argues that critical mineral stockpiling would be a mistake and that countries need vertically integrated supply chains to secure critical materials supply chains. (use Grok translate if you don't read Italiano).
WSJ covers wild demand to take a very difficult, very classics- and fiction reading intensive Humanities 10 course at Harvard - does this reflect a rebellion against what AI is doing to us all cognitively?

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Entering a possibly pivotal key few days. Oct 28, 2026

Show notes

Today, covering the strong session yesterday and overnight in Asia for much of the AI hardware space, although Seagate Technology was a notable exception overnight and wondering how much of the story is linked to the incoming Anthropic IPO. Certainly an important test for the AI trade as three Mag7 hyperscalers are reporting today (Microsoft and Alphabet and tomorrow (Amazon.com). Lots going on in central bank landing as all G3 central banks are set to meet today through Friday, so it feels like a pivotal timeframe for nearly everything. This and more on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.

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Saxo webinar covering the US mid-term election and possible market impact (hosted by John and Raphael Olsynza-Marzys of J. Safra Sarasin). Scroll to bottom of page to the Previous Webinars section.
WSJ with a long form profile of Google's top AI guy Demis Hassabis and why he believes the world is set to change radically (not sure how much it delivered on the latter, but Hassabis is an excellent communicator worth listening to).
A well-written review of the Nathan Fielder documentary of Elizabeth Holmes. Aren't self delusional sociopaths fascinating? And are there some other CEO's out there, amybe some atop AI companies, that share 10-20% or more of the Holmes profile, especially because self delusion can dovetail so temptingly with financial self interest?
Schroder's asks whether the titanic US pension system is a hidden risk for global equity markets, both due to AI and passive investing. Certainly, passive investing is arguably what drives the "wealth pump" in Peter Turchin's framework and is the single most important thing to follow in how our market system will either continue to provide strong returns or suffer a profound reset.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.

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Anthropic IPO: A coming titanic test for the AI trade Oct 27, 2026

Show notes

Today, we look at the market's enthusiasm for the coming Anthropic IPO, which took an important step closer with the release of their S1 prospectus yesterday. The floating of the company will prove a massive test for the AI trade. Elsewhere, plenty more to discuss as the Euro is coming under pressure again despite a bid for French sovereign debt yesterday. This and much more on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.

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The UK Autumn Budget is incoming tomorrow from Chancellor Healey. There is talk of a more pragmatic approach from Burnham's government. Here is a thorough look at UK finances and perspective on what might be needed in this budget to stabilize the outlook for the UK's finances from the National Institute of Economic and Social Research commentators.
Michael McNair warns on how Anthropic's cost side may have been underestimated and warns very thoroughly with a rare, general bear market call, mostly based on concerns related to a cybersecurity event, for which an AI company could be found liable.
Louis Gave of GaveKal comments on the French debt situation and how real solutions are not meaningfully being discussed in this MacroVoices podcast (starting about 49 minutes in). Very interesting discussion of the three-way split in France's socioeconomic groups!
A WSJ article links the US midterm elections with the prospect for data center buildouts proceeding in key states as political risk is an important part of the AI trade.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.

Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions.

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Market tries to steady, but big unknowns loom. Oct 26, 2026

Show notes

Today, a look at another US equity market session Friday marked by huge market divergences as we also look into what may be driving this phenomenon. Elsewhere, we preview a very busy week ahead, with the big three central banks all set to meet this week and an ongoing blitz of incoming earnings reports, with three of the Mag7 reporting. Perhaps most importantly, we remind of the terrible overhang of geopolitical uncertainty as Israel and the US are posturing with significant force build-ups in the Middle East. This and more in today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.

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Michael Every highlighted this article from the FT on the EU having its own wakeup moment on critical material supply chains and taking equity stakes in new ventures.
Albert Bridge Capital talks about the profound short-termism of traders and investors active in the US equity market as having shades of both the tech/telecom bubble and the Nifty Fifty era in the 1970's, and about the potential longer term opportunities this could bring.
This one went really viral: a retrospective on the 2028 AI Bubble crash, written as if the year is 2030. I didn't note on the podcast that the piece also has a positive on how AI will impact the economy, even if a bubble would be harmful for investors. Think the railroad and internet backbone boom/busts.
Torsten Slok uncorks some stark language on AI, saying that non-Mag7 corporations are essentially getting nothing out of their spending on it.
Two long-form podcasts for you today, one with Vincent Deluard talking his bearish call on equities and understated inflation, and another one with Richard Mullin on the potential for a secular commodities bull market and more.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.

Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions.

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A big day for equities, but a bigger one for bonds. Oct 23, 2026

Show notes

Today we break down the big sell-off in US equities, as ironically there were almost twice as many gainers as losers in the S&P 500 yesterday, with the selling chiefly focused on AI-related companies. Elsewhere, it was a much bigger day for bonds, which rallied steeply as US treasuries finally functioned as a proper and unambiguous safe haven, at least for a day. The impact on FX from that was also interesting, as the JPY stirred more forcefully. This and much more on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.

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John's The FX Trader from today Will the real JPY please stand up?, talking especially USD and JPY and next week's five central bank meets.
The Captain America program for dogs? Sounds creepy and hopefully without any super serums. Weren't we supposed to deploy robots instead?
The Wired on the ice age that wasn't because we humans like to burn stuff.
A heightened cyber-attack risk PSA - please be careful out there!

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.

Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions.

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Another comeback day spoiled and then some. What gives? Oct 22, 2026

Show notes

Today, we look at the violent vibe shift in the US equity market, which crumbled overnight after a quite positive session, led by the very high momentum sectors that posted a solid result yesterday. It doesn't feel like this is all coming from negative reactions to earnings results from the likes of Tesla or Lam Research - but what is it? We wonder if it could be geopolitics. Also on today's pod, we delve way back into the financial history of the 1870's depression and its origins and aggravations, whether hedge fund strategies that are blowing up are further aggravating the French debt market instabilities and much more. Today's pod is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.

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The eFinancialCareers story that anecdotally suggests some of the stress on French debt could be down to ill-advised bets that mean reversion on French yield spreads would remain operative.
HT to Cory Doctorow for this substack post on the Singularity (when AI and technology suddenly begin outstripping human capabilities and possibly leading to our merging machines), which like nuclear fusion always seems to be 20 years away. The post has a couple of book recommendations from the early 2000's on what the Singularity might look like. I asked ChatGPT for some more up-to-date recommendations, and it gave me this one and this one from Ray Nayler, which look very interesting, but also this one and this one, number three from Adrian Tchaikovsky's Dogs of War series. I haven't read the latter, but did read his Dogs of War - incredibly highly recommended speculative fiction book that is "A gripping exploration of AI, free will, personhood and the ethics of creating intelligent beings as weapons.", an apt ChatGPT summary. There is also Toward Eternity by Anton Hur, which is apparently more about transhumanism.

The PHP2shell hack is getting a lot of attention. People like French grocery stores that don't patch their freezer firmware could still be at risk.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.

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SpaceX hopes burn bright as huge internal divergences within US market continue. Oct 21, 2026

Show notes

Today, a look at yet another day of US equity market divergences, as the major indices and semiconductors posted an indifferent to slightly negative day while most stocks were up solidly on the day. This rhymes with another market from around the years 2000-01. Also, a look at SpaceX and Netflix earnings and the very different reactions. French yields and much more also on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.

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Japan is running short of yttrium as China cuts of supplies, likely on the excuse that Japan is remilitarizing.
A long form debate on the importance and denouement of the massive US current account deficit, the world's most important imbalance.
Someone pokes into how Coreweave's bonds can be under so much strain when it still has over USD 30 billion in equity.

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Markets are on tilt. Why is SpaceX suddenly reporting today? Oct 20, 2026

Show notes

Today, we look at the markets trying to get back in a positive mood yesterday in the US, but with the broader market and the rest of the world not having any of it as oil prices surged once again and as the situation in France continues to fester. Discomfort with stability of AI "neo-cloud" companies is also weighing. With earnings season hitting full swing this week, we wonder why SpaceX is suddenly set to report earnings today. This and much more on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.

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Bloomberg covers what needs to happen to get French yields under control, which mostly boils down to cutting the transfer payments to old people. At least they might be less likely to riot and set things on fire? Here's an excellent take on the why of the French riots, with a hat-tip to Izabella Kaminska for the link.
Business Insider reports on Amazon's racks of AI servers not able to connect to the grid.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.

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Comeback day and a giant sucking sound from Tesla Oct 16, 2026

Show notes

Today, a look at a massive comeback from further steep selling in US equities, establishing a critical line in the sand for the major indices and especially AI-adjacent names from here, effectively a bull-bear line. Elsewhere, Tesla demonstrated its new Roadster, which can both "fly" for an unknown number of seconds and "suck" itself to the road, allowing for beyond vertical adherence to a road surfaces and supposedly insane cornering abilities. Useful. More importantly, a deep-dive on the global oil picture and the troublesome Brent futures contract with Saxo Head of Commodity Strategy Ole Hansen and so much more on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.

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