Saxo Market Call

Latest Episodes:

Nvidia does what it can to bring cheer. Dark geopolitics still lurk in the background. Aug 27, 2026

Show notes

Today, with Saxo Equity Strategist Ruben Dalfovo we look through three of the key earnings report seeing very positive market responses, topped by Nvidia's strong report and outlook. We go through the details, the good points and a few concerns in places. Elsewhere, macro is quiet and a lower oil price is helpful, but grains are on fire, in part linked to geopolitical concerns that continue to present difficult-to-quantify risks. This and more on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.

Links

As Michael Every predicted, the US is now considering the equivalent of "letters of marque" or 19th century and earlier era policies allowing private operators to serve as extension of US power overseas, for things like seizing Iran's oil.
Today's very compelling set of FTAlphaville Further Reading links very much worth a browse.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.

Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions.

Click here to open an account with Saxo.

Intro music by AShamaluevMusic

DISCLAIMER
This content is marketing material.
Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

Waiting for what may or may not surprise from Nvidia and the J-Hole. Aug 26, 2026

Show notes

Today, while crude oil prices were crushed by Strait of Hormuz headlines and bond yields responded to a degree, much of the market is in a holding pattern ahead of a string of event risks that may or may not provide what the market is hoping to get from them - especially Friday's Jackson Hole speech from Fed Chair Warsh, not to mention today's Nvidia earnings release after the close. This and much more discussed on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.

Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions.

Click here to open an account with Saxo.

Intro music by AShamaluevMusic

Geopolitics and US and European yields in the spotlight Aug 24, 2026

Show notes

Today, a look at the importance and geostrategic implications of the US-Canada trade stand-off, even if the current 50% tariff threat only impacts a small portion of the trade relationship. The geopolitical implications of the US threat to counter Iran's "enablers" are also considered, together with the latest news flow on AI data center financing stories, incoming earnings from Nvidia and other interesting names this week and much more, especially what to watch in the US and European sovereign debt markets. Today's pod was hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.

Links

Michael Every X post highlighting key geopolitical points and why this latest round in the US-Canada "trade war" is critical stuff.
The New York Times covers Powerus, the company already manufacturing thousands of drone interceptors a month in the UAE.
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's threat to cut off Iran's economy from the world, focusing especially on its "enablers" - what might that mean for new US-China tensions, which have been put on the back burner for quite some time?
Volkswagen wants to make some deep cuts to capacity and may repurpose some of its factories for defense.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.

Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions.

Click here to open an account with Saxo.

Intro music by AShamaluevMusic

Bessent panics, gold and crypto rip, equity technicals pivotal Aug 21, 2026

Show notes

Today, we look at Treasury Secretary Bessent out trying to massage the market again after the Wednesday treasury buyback announcement failed to crush long US treasury yields. The treasury's actions continue to provide fuel for the sharp gold and crypto rallies. We also note that the market's so far modest correction is getting us close to pivotal technical territory for the S&P 500, with one critical earnings report up next week for the AI space. This and much more on today's pod, which was hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.

Links

Have you heard of SLM's (Small Language Models that can run on a PC/laptop), these might have performance parity with LLMs for large percentage of AI tasks, which could - could - call into question the need for the scale of hyperscaler spending we are seeing.
Fed piece on stablecoins: Payment stablecoins and cross border payments: Implications for monetary policy implementation.
There is no one like The Telegraph's Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, who waxes dramatic as only he can on the dire risks of a US debt crisis.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.

Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions.

Click here to open an account with Saxo.

Intro music by AShamaluevMusic

US Treasury buyback announcement sets fire to the US dollar. Aug 20, 2026

Show notes

Today, looking of course at the impact of the US Treasury's increase of its treasury buyback program and the knock-on effects across asset markets, particularly the plunge in the US dollar versus hard- and even more so crypto assets. Importantly, we don't feel we have all of the answers, but hopefully we are asking some of the most important questions and pointing out the pivotal developments to watch as we head for what is now a much higher stakes Jackson Hole appearance by Fed Chair Warsh next week, after the Treasury has sent this critical signal. Today's pod hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.

Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions.

Click here to open an account with Saxo.

Intro music by AShamaluevMusic

Beginning of a larger bearish correction here? Aug 20, 2026

Show notes

Today, a thorough look at the commodity space, especially crude oil as hopes for relief from geopolitical tensions fade and how it may be weighing on broader risk sentiment. With Saxo Head of Commodity Strategy Ole Hansen, we also take a look at copper market dynamics and grain and soft developments as geopolitical and El Niño risks weigh. We also sift through broader equity market dynamics and the risks that we are heading into a bearish correction here. Today's pod hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.

Links

Coverage of Cerebras' latest chip and claims of huge potential advances in inference computing efficiency. As well, WSJ covers a new semiconductor startup Etched, which shows that technical disruption risks in the AI compute hardware space are significant.
Polemic Paine with a thorough look at factors that have him concerned we face a significant equity market correction in the US.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.

Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions.

Click here to open an account with Saxo.

Intro music by AShamaluevMusic

Speedrunning dead internet theory - an SMC listener weighs in. Aug 13, 2026

Show notes

Today, a brief wrap of yesterday's equity market session in the US, which repeated some of the recent AI hardware vs. SaaS performance divergences. A couple of key AI-chip and hardware names reported with results that didn't satisfy the market. We also look at the US CPI release and the reaction across macro, noting a key US treasury auction up later today. Also, we read aloud a great email sent to us by a long-time SMC listener on the chaos that AI LLMs have unleashed on IT operations for companies and the internet. Today's pod hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.

Links

Cory Doctorow again on AI model collapse, with a particularly interesting link to a Lauren's data Substack post wonderfully titled "Temperature Zero for Culture: Why Everything Is Starting to Look the Same." Which makes us proud to produce a very non-AI generated podcast every day that doesn't try to be like anyone else.
There has been a lot of overage of Bill Ackman's latest position changes from his Pershing Square 13F filing. Here's a useful X post that usefully pastes in the coverage from his letter to shareholders.
The link from the email read on today's pod on the Hugging Face hack incident: the YouTube video link works, while the summary link Mr. O sent me did not contain the summary.
Michael Burry on Palantir being worth less than a dollar/share.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.

Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions.

Click here to open an account with Saxo.

Intro music by AShamaluevMusic

Treasury market reaction to US CPI the next key Aug 12, 2026

Show notes

Today, an emphasis on the importance of this US July CPI hurdle today and different scenarios based on what the data shows, all while emphasizing that geopolitics and the crude oil price are a very important independent variable as well. Also, a look at more AI hardware companies reporting yesterday and the market reception of those earnings reports as well as the next batch of AI-adjacent companies reporting today. Some quality links discussed in today's podcast as well on everything from Fed communication policy to the risks from AI replacing search. Today's pod hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.

Links

Aitken Advisors James Aitken ponders whether Jackson Hole is becoming a more significant event risk after Fed Chair Kevin Warsh flubbed his latest press conference.
Mike Green is striking out on a new adventure, one that will eye opportunities in the inefficiencies created by increasingly dominant passive flows.
Michael McNair responds to a Stephen Roach substack article on China's Deepening Japan Problem.
Michael Every's latest Global Daily from Rabobank, with some great comments and sub-links
Canada's The Walrus with a great piece discussed on today's pod, outlining the risks to the entire quality of the internet as AI results replace Google search.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.

Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions.

Click here to open an account with Saxo.

Intro music by AShamaluevMusic

Pressures from macro backdrop building ahead of US CPI Aug 11, 2026

Show notes

Today, we delve into the ongoing development of the "super el Niño" weather phenomenon, running through the difficulty in assessing the scale of potential impacts. Elsewhere, oil markets and refined product markets are spiking on the latest escalation in supply uncertainties from the Middle East. This we discuss with Saxo Head of Commodity Strategy Ole Hansen, together with the factors driving the recent gold and silver resurgence. Elsewhere, markets look potentially pivotal on the reaction to Wednesday's US CPI release as US long treasury yields are pinned at cycle highs. Plenty of single stock stories and more also on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.

Links

FT covers Nvidia putting together a financing package for USD 500 billion in AI spending with some of the world's largest financil groups.
FTAlphaville asks how much hidden leverage there is in the hyperscaler AI buildout. The answer seems to be "a lot".
The St. Louis Fed offers a deep dive into what is driving the steep decline in the US labor force participation rate, most of which looks benign and relative to statistical adjustments and the aging US population, but there was still some cause for concern from the June and July data on prime age workers.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.

Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions.

Click here to open an account with Saxo.

Intro music by AShamaluevMusic

Polysilicon supply chains may surprise you. US jobs data today! Aug 07, 2026

Show notes

Today, a look at how the market is positioned ahead of today's US jobs data and how a surprise - especially a negative surprise - might read across markets. Also, a brief discussion of polysilicon supply chains, which may surprise you, as China only dominates one of the key two production types. Also, a preview of the many interesting names reporting earnings next week. This and more on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.

Links

Aakash Gupta points out the potential scale of impacts if this El Niño is as disruptive as the late 1990's one, which he argues compounded to a cost of US 5.7 trillion over the following 14 years.
An FT exclusive delves into how Google puts in place the financing pipeline to drive USD 200B of spending on Anthropic, especially to sell its own chips to the company.
And Ed Zitron suggests that 70% of Microsoft, Amazon and Google's AI-related revenue is derived from the black hole of OpenAI and Anthropic unprofitable spending.
ChipTycoon, an info-animation, shows the complexity of semiconductor supply chains in the style of the Rollercoaster Tycoon game.

About twice per week (in normal times, hopefully soon to resume), you will find links discussed on the podcast and a chart-of-the-day over at the John J. Hardy substack.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.

Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions.

Click here to open an account with Saxo.

Intro music by AShamaluevMusic

Our TOPPODCAST Picks

Follow Us

Stay Connected

Related Podcasts

Links

Stay Connected