Rosenberg Round-Up

Latest Episodes:

The “Choose Your Own Adventure” Economy Mar 01, 2024

Show notes

This week, we discuss the scattered early signals on Q1 activity. Our Spotlight is on how “exceptional” the U.S. growth acceleration was in a global context.

The Week in Review (1:55) — The “choose your own adventure” economy

The Spotlight (6:23) — The new U.S. (economic) exceptionalism

Canada Corner (13:02) — Canada narrowly escapes a recession, but it’s not getting any wealthier

For a 30-day free trial of our research, please click this link: ⁠⁠ https://web.rosenbergresearch.com/RosenbergRoundupTrial

The Magnificent Seven Are the New Nifty Fifty Feb 23, 2024

Show notes

This week we discuss the Fed Minutes along with the LEI. Our spotlight is on the Nifty Fifty and how history tends to rhyme.

The Week in Review (1:18) — Spending a ‘minute’ on the Fed and a look at the LEI

The Week Ahead (5:27) — All eyes on consumer spending and consumer inflation data

The Spotlight (5:42) — The Nifty Fifty and the Magnificent Seven have a lot in common

Canada Corner (8:09) — Will the latest inflation data bring forward the BoC's first cut?

For a 30-day free trial of our research, please click this link: ⁠ https://web.rosenbergresearch.com/RosenbergRoundupTrial

David Rosenberg on Why We’re Sticking to Our Guns Feb 16, 2024

Show notes

This week we sit down with Dave Rosenberg to talk about the hot start to the year for equity markets and the U.S. economy as a whole. Dave outlines why we don’t see enough in the early data to drop our 2024 recession call.

Introduction (0:20)

The Week in Review (0:41) — Reflecting on a disappointing CPI number

The Week Ahead (1:37) — Fed minutes to provide clarity on what might give the FOMC the “confidence” to cut

The Spotlight (2:15) — How the top end of the income distributions drives the consumer spending cycle

The Interview (4:11) — Dave Rosenberg on why we’re sticking to our guns

Canada Corner (13:34) — Will the Bank of Canada end up cutting before the Fed?

For a 30-day free trial of our research, please click this link: ⁠ https://web.rosenbergresearch.com/RosenbergRoundupTrial

Access the recent webcast with Peter Boockvar: https://www.bigmarker.com/rosenberg-research1/Replay-Webcast-with-Dave-Featuring-Special-Guest-Peter-Boockvar-611062d65431d502a7ca8eb5

U.S. Consumers Have a Strict Debt Only Diet Feb 09, 2024

Show notes

This week, we take a look into U.S. household debt and credit, finding that consumers are looking far from “resilient.” We also host Marius Jongstra, head of market strategy at Rosenberg Research, for his latest views on the major asset classes.

Introduction (0:20)

The Week in Review (0:44) — Diving into the U.S. credit data via the SLOOS and NY Fed’s Household Debt and Credit report

The Week Ahead (2:27) — Some huge data releases on deck headlined by U.S. CPI and retail sales

The Spotlight (2:58) — Fed undershoot? Why we think the Fed’s average inflation-targeting framework won’t be an issue

The Interview (6:34) —Marius Jongstra on the markets

Canada Corner (11:21) — Home sales are beginning to pick up while prices falter

For a 30-day free trial of our research, please click this link: ⁠https://web.rosenbergresearch.com/RosenbergRoundupTrial

“What's Priced In” to U.S. stocks Feb 02, 2024

Show notes

This is the Rosenberg Round-Up, hosted by Dylan Smith, Senior Economist at Rosenberg Research. On this week’s episode, we host Bhawana Chhabra, CFA, Senior Market Strategist at Rosenberg Research, for a look at her new report on the US equity market titled “What’s Priced In.”

Introduction (0:20) — Welcome to another week of Rosenberg Round-Up

The Week in Review (1:12) — Diving into the latest Fed meeting, ISM manufacturing report and Non-Farm payrolls

The Week Ahead (6:35) — Earnings in focus next week

The Spotlight (7:00) — A U.S.-focused follow-up to our Global Outlook

The Interview (9:01) — We chat with Bhawana Chhabra, CFA, about What’s Priced In

Canada corner (14:21) — A look at Canadian GDP

For a 30-day free trial of our research, please click this link: https://web.rosenbergresearch.com/RosenbergRoundupTrial

David Rosenberg on the 2024 Outlook Jan 26, 2024

Show notes

Welcome to the inaugural episode of Rosenberg Round-Up, hosted by Dylan Smith, Vice President and Senior Economist at Rosenberg Research. On this week's episode, we host David Rosenberg for his outlook on the year ahead.

Introduction (0:20) — Welcome to the Rosenberg Round-up

The Week in Review (1:43) — S&P 500 hits new all-time high, but we’re not convinced

The Week Ahead (3:27) — Here’s looking at you, Chairman Powell

The Spotlight (3:45) — A QT pivot is coming into view

The Interview (6:38) — We chat with Dave Rosenberg about our 2024 Outlook

Canada corner (20:05) — Whisper it quietly, but we think the BoC is trying to pop the housing bubble