Rosenberg Round-Up

Latest Episodes:

Economic Consequences of the U.S. Election Jul 05, 2024

Show notes

We reflect on a week dominated by global politics, and shine our spotlight on what the shifting probabilities around the U.S. election mean for markets

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In This Episode

The Week in Review (0:45) — A compressed Independence Day week couldn’t stop the rally

The Week Ahead (6:36) — Round 2 of the French election will open the week before making way for U.S. CPI

The Spotlight (9:40) — What the shifting probabilities in the U.S. election will mean for the markets

What a Mean-Reverting Savings Rate Would Mean for the Economy Jun 28, 2024

Show notes

This week we cover a mixed bag in data, check in on Canadian inflation, and shine our spotlight on the U.S. savings rate and its impact on consumption.

The Week in Review (1:05) — Markets took a breather as the economic data sent mixed signals

The Week Ahead (4:48) — All eyes on nonfarm payrolls

The Spotlight (8:03) — What the ultra-low savings rate tells us bout the U.S. consumer

Canada Corner (12:54) — Will an inflation hiccup derail further cuts?

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Margin Revolution – How U.S. Inflation Will Fall to 2% Jun 21, 2024

Show notes

This week we cover the extreme optimism in equity markets against a backdrop of softening economic data. We shine our spotlight on how declining pricing power and margin compression are bringing down inflation in the U.S.

The Week in Review (1:03) — The bulls charge; retail sales slump; Bank of England stands pat

The Week Ahead (6:37) —Europe politics comes to the forefront in a data-light week

The Spotlight (8:08) — Firms are losing pricing power, dragging on margins and helping disinflate the economy

Canada Corner (12:57) — The BoC is not concerned about a weaker Loonie, more cuts will follow

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Fed Does Its Best to Sound Hawkish — It Will Backfire Jun 14, 2024

Show notes

This week we cover the Fed’s puzzling projections, falling inflation, and the European elections. We shine our spotlight on the ups and downs of a consumer recession.

The Week in Review (1:15) — Did the Fed even look at the soft inflation report that dropped during its meeting?

The Week Ahead (12:44) — The BoE rate decision headlines the week, while retail sales and industrial production data drop stateside.

The Spotlight (13:38) — Where do consumers cut the most in recessions — and how should your portfolio be positioned?

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The Cutting Cycle Commences Jun 07, 2024

Show notes

This week we cover the onset of the global cutting cycle, as the BoC and the ECB took important first steps this week. Then we shine our spotlight beyond the S&P 500, arguing that small is beautiful.

The Week in Review (0:40) — The BoC and the ECB ease and the U.S. data softens

The Week Ahead (6:56) — A potential damp squib from the FOMC — but keep an eye on CPI

The Spotlight (8:06) — Looking for value beyond the S&P 500

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Data Revisions, Rate Decisions, Growth Previsions May 31, 2024

Show notes

This week we highlight the pile-up of negative data revisions that are changing the cyclical picture, we touch on the outlook for the Fed as its peers prepare to cut, and we shine our spotlight on new long-term growth outlook estimates for the world’s largest economies.

The Week in Review (1:45) — The latest Beige Book, GDP revisions, and Dimon on private credit

The Week Ahead (7:14) — The ECB and BoC to cut (?)

The Spotlight (8:36) — Where to invest for the long term

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The Macro View From Europe | Gerhard Massenbauer May 29, 2024

Show notes

In our latest occasional interview episode, we welcome Gerhard Massenbauer, chief analyst at Treasury Scout, to the Rosenberg Roundup. Gerhardt is an incisive commentator with over 25 years of experience in global and European FX and rates who is never afraid to make a bold call.

We cover the opportunities opening up in Europe, what the sequencing of rate cuts will mean for investors, how the post-election evolution of fiscal policy will drive global interest rates, as well as touching on Gerhard’s view on gold, and his global FX picks.

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Setting the Record Straight on Household Balance Sheets May 24, 2024

Show notes

This week, we cover the latest signal from earnings, and we go toe-to-toe with the KC Fed on household balance sheets

The Week in Review (0:36) — AI-related stocks soar on strong earnings while consumers tighten their belts

The Week Ahead (4:11) — The Beige Book will bring the latest signal from the real economy

The Spotlight (5:01) — Why it’s wrong to think that a “record” low debt-to-income ratio means households can keep spending

Canada Corner (8:38) — Another promising inflation report out of Canada

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Not Your Father’s (or Grandfather’s) Emerging Markets May 17, 2024

Show notes

This week, we cover the trifecta of soft data that’s sent stocks to new highs. Our spotlight shines on Emerging Market stocks, and what the (eventual) fall in global interest rates will mean for them.

The Week in Review (1:21) — Why softening U.S. data has pushed the S&P 500 to new highs

The Spotlight (8:42) — Not your grandfather’s Emerging Markets

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It’s Not a Drag Getting Old: An Emerging Investment Theme May 10, 2024

Show notes

This week, what a slowdown in nonfarm payrolls meant for markets, and how to position for the opportunity in America’s aging capital stock.

The Week in Review (1:06) — A rare weak employment report and the Swedish Riksbank cuts rates

The Week Ahead (7:19) — CPI and retail sales headline a big week for macro data

The Spotlight (7:41) — Who will benefit from the replacement and repair of America’s private capital stock?

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