Rosenberg Round-Up

Latest Episodes:

Laboring Over the Job Market Misconceptions May 03, 2024

Show notes

This week, we look back on Powell’s pushback, shine our spotlight on the labor market data, and drop by Canada to check in on growth prospects.

The Week in Review (1:30) — Powell holds the line on rates guidance, and what earnings reports are telling us about the U.S. consumer

The Week Ahead (7:32) — The Bank of England meeting headlines a crowded international calendar

The Spotlight (8:47) — We dive deep into the U.S. labor market, from coming NFP revisions to industry-level slack

Canada Corner (15:35) — Canada has not dodged a soft landing

For a 30-day free trial of our research, click here: ⁠https://web.rosenbergresearch.com/RosenbergRoundupTrial⁠

The Downside GDP Surprise was Less Than Surprising Apr 26, 2024

Show notes

This week, we dig into the combination of weak growth and hot consumer price inflation that nobody saw coming in the U.S. GDP report. Our spotlight is focused on Central Bank gold buying.

The Week in Review (0:54) — Our take on Q1 GDP, U.S. equities, and the risks in private markets

The Week Ahead (8:10) — Nonfarm payrolls will headline a busy week

The Spotlight (8:33) — Sustained central bank gold buying keeps our long-term $3,000 target intact

For a 30-day free trial of our research, click here: ⁠https://web.rosenbergresearch.com/RosenbergRoundupTrial⁠

How Investors Should Prepare For the Day of Fiscal Reckoning | David Hay Apr 24, 2024

Show notes

We welcome author, investor, activist, thinker, and co-CIO of advisory firm Evergreen Gavekal, David "The Haymaker" Hay onto the Rosenberg Round-Up.

Our interview with Dave marks the inaugural episode of a series of standalone interviews that will run alongside the weekly Roundup on a (roughly) 1-month cadence. In the series, we'll take you deeper on a range of topics with recognized experts.

In this episode, Dave frames today's main market themes (from AI to Gold to fiscal policy to the Fed) from the perspective of broad cycles of economic and social history, and explains how the median investor is positioned "exactly improperly" for the risk environment that has built over the past decade.

For more on David Hay visit his Substack, "Haymaker": https://haymaker.substack.com/

For a 30-day free trial of our research, click here: https://web.rosenbergresearch.com/RosenbergRoundupTrial

Are Bulls Finally Seeing Red? Apr 19, 2024

Show notes

This week, our spotlight is on our recent report on the wealth effects and its role as the driving force behind spending.

The Week in Review (1:19) — Markets at an inflection point as Fed cuts get pushed back

The Spotlight (8:22) — Wealth effects have put the wind in the U.S. consumer’s sails

Canada Corner (13:20) — We give the 2024 Budget a D- grade

For a 30-day free trial of our research, click here: ⁠⁠ https://web.rosenbergresearch.com/RosenbergRoundupTrial⁠

Deconstructing “Weird Wednesday” Apr 12, 2024

Show notes

This week we try to extract some meaning from a weird and wacky Wednesday, when a slightly warmer-than-expected CPI number sent markets haywire. Later, we shine our spotlight on the implications of the gold run-up for mining stocks and silver prices.

The Week in Review (1:19) — Weird Wednesday

The Week Ahead (7:18) — Listen carefully to the Fedspeak

The Spotlight (8:44) — Will silver prices and mining stocks benefit from the gold surge?

Canada Corner (12:38) — The Bank of Canada (and the ECB) set out the path for rate cuts

For a 30-day free trial of our research, please click this link: ⁠⁠⁠ https://web.rosenbergresearch.com/RosenbergRoundupTrial

Access our latest Special Report on Gold: https://web.rosenbergresearch.com/gold-special-report

Going for Gold Apr 05, 2024

Show notes

This week, our spotlight is on our recent gold special report, along with a touch on some other commodities.

The Week in Review (2:08) — A spring thaw in the U.S. data (but can it last?)

The Week Ahead (5:17) — All eyes on the BoC and ECB for a dovish tilt, and the U.S. CPI key for what the Fed says next

The Spotlight (6:12) — Gold to $3,000? And should we be worried about broader commodity prices?

Access our latest Special Report Why Gold Is Glittering — And Why It’s Headed For $3,000: https://web.rosenbergresearch.com/gold-special-report

For a 30-day free trial of our research, please click this link: ⁠⁠⁠ https://web.rosenbergresearch.com/RosenbergRoundupTrial

Should We Still Be Worried About Regional Banks? Mar 28, 2024

Show notes

This week, we look back at some housing data and why there has been a pivot in that space. Our spotlight focuses on regional banks and why caution is warranted.

The Week in Review (3:10) — Is housing becoming a buyer's market?

The Spotlight (6:06) — What do regional banks and rocket ships have in common?

Canada Corner (10:07) — Time to “smash the emergency glass” according to the Bank of Canada

For a 30-day free trial of our research, please click this link: ⁠⁠⁠ https://web.rosenbergresearch.com/RosenbergRoundupTrial

Fighting The Fiscal Boogeyman Mar 22, 2024

Show notes

This week, we dissect the Fed’s pleasingly boring meeting amid a poor run of data. Our spotlight is on the worrying fiscal situation in the U.S., and when to start panicking. And Canada Corner is back in style.

The Week in Review (2:52) — Powell Plays the Central Banker

The Week Ahead (6:29) — U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures Drop on the Friday Holiday

The Spotlight / Interview (7:00) — What to worry about when it comes to the U.S. debt, with U of T’s Jason Choi.

Canada Corner (19:29) — Core inflation is behaving – Bring on the Bank of Canada cuts!

For a 30-day free trial of our research, please click this link: ⁠⁠⁠ https://web.rosenbergresearch.com/RosenbergRoundupTrial

The Real, the Nominal, and the Fed Mar 15, 2024

Show notes

This week, we dissect recent inflation data and ask what it means for next week’s Fed meeting. Our spotlight focuses on Korea and its Japan-esque potential.

The Week in Review (1:05) — How this week’s data shifted the narrative

The Week Ahead (7:38) — All eyes on the Fed

The Spotlight (9:57) — Does Korea deserve a place on your watchlist?

For a 30-day free trial of our research, please click this link: ⁠⁠⁠ https://web.rosenbergresearch.com/RosenbergRoundupTrial

Bitcoin Glitters, but is it Gold? Mar 08, 2024

Show notes

This week, we get deep on the big market themes, discussing the rally in gold and Bitcoin, and pondering “where to?” for equities? Our spotlight interview focuses on why we’re sticking to our bullish long-term call on Japan.

The Week in Review (0:43) — Assessing the markets from, bullion to equities to bitcoin

The Spotlight / Interview (8:30) — Japan: a good time to stop and smell the cherry blossoms

Canada Corner (15:38) — Tiff stiffs the bond bulls

For a 30-day free trial of our research, please click this link: ⁠⁠ https://web.rosenbergresearch.com/RosenbergRoundupTrial

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