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    Business

    RiskReversal Pod

    Welcome to the RiskReversal Pod, where Dan Nathan and Guy Adami are joined by the most brilliant minds in markets and tech. 

    We break down the most important market moving headlines to help listeners make better informed investing decisions.

    Our goal is to deconstruct Wall Street speak and offer contrarian insights and strategies that help investors navigate increasingly volatile markets.

    —

    FOLLOW US

    YouTube: @RiskReversalMedia

    Instagram: @riskreversalmedia

    Twitter: @RiskReversal

    LinkedIn: RiskReversal Media

    The financial opinions expressed in Risk Reversal content are for information purposes only. The opinions expressed by the hosts and participants are not an attempt to influence specific trading behavior, investments, or strategies. Past performance does not necessarily predict future outcomes. No specific results or profits are assured when relying on Risk Reversal.

    Before making any investment or trade, evaluate its suitability for your circumstances and consider consulting your own financial or investment advisor. The financial products discussed in Risk Reversal carry a high level of risk and may not be appropriate for many investors. If you have uncertainties, it’s advisable to seek professional advice. Remember that trading involves a risk to your capital, so only invest money that you can afford to lose.

    Derivatives are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of losing more than the amount originally deposited and any profit you might have made. This communication is not a recommendation or offer to buy, sell or retain any specific investment or service.

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    Latest Episodes:
    Peter Boockvar: The AI Semi Trade is Nearing an Absolute Exhaustion Point Apr 24, 2026
    Show notes

    Dan Nathan and Peter Boockvar discuss a narrow, under-the-hood stock market rally driven largely by AI beneficiaries—especially semiconductors and data-center hardware—while hyperscalers lag as they turn asset-heavy and free cash flow falls. They note extreme momentum in semis (record RSI/long winning streak) and debate catalysts for a reversal, including hyperscaler CapEx guidance, potential demand destruction from higher component costs, and front-loaded ordering tied to war-driven supply fears. The conversation broadens to geopolitics: war-related commodity impacts, Strait of Hormuz risks, and U.S.-China leverage via rare-earth magnets critical to defense production, with expectations Trump’s China trip may be pragmatic. They touch on defense stocks’ vulnerability to drones, Fed-chair transition expectations toward Warsh, early earnings takeaways (banks steady, homebuilders fragile), and focus on upcoming hyperscaler results for ads and CapEx.


    Show Notes

    • Checkout The Boock Report: peterboockvar.substack.com/
    • FactSet's Earnings Insight: factset.com/insight/subscribe

    —
    FOLLOW US
    YouTube: @RiskReversalMedia
    Instagram: @riskreversalmedia
    Twitter: @RiskReversal
    LinkedIn: RiskReversal Media


    Dan Ives on Tim Cook's Surprise Departure & Apple's Ticking AI Time Bomb Apr 22, 2026
    Show notes

    Dan Nathan interviews Wedbush's Dan Ives on “Okay, Computer.” about Tim Cook unexpectedly stepping down as Apple CEO (remaining chairman) ahead of WWDC, Apple’s still-unclear AI strategy, and why Apple’s installed base could make it a key “toll collector” for consumer AI via edge computing, services, and an AI-enabled App/agent ecosystem that may drive higher hardware memory needs and subscriptions. They discuss whether Apple’s valuation can rerate if it proves AI success and argue the new CEO should be more acquisitive in AI/software/robotics. Ives says fears that Anthropic/OpenAI will “unseat” major SaaS incumbents are a false narrative, expecting AI monetization to improve as features bundle into core products and pricing models evolve. They preview earnings setups for Microsoft, Google, and Meta, and share Asia channel-check takeaways: strong AI hardware demand, a memory supercycle, and potential geopolitical supply-chain risks.

    —
    FOLLOW US
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    Instagram: @riskreversalmedia
    Twitter: @RiskReversal
    LinkedIn: RiskReversal Media


    "The Market Will Never Go Down Again" Apr 20, 2026
    Show notes

    Dan Nathan and Guy Adami discuss an unusually persistent market rally, with a “sea of green” pushing the S&P 500 to new highs as crude oil reverses lower on signs the Strait of Hormuz remains open during a ceasefire. They debate whether investors are conditioned to buy dips even if Middle East tensions flare again, noting VIX levels and an overbought setup heading into the heart of earnings. They flag Netflix down 10% despite solid free cash flow, attributing the drop to guidance and Reed Hastings leaving the board, and call out Intel’s near-parabolic move ahead of a pivotal print. They also examine software’s potential inflection (including SAP), strong bank CEO tone on the consumer, energy-stock pullbacks as buying opportunities, homebuilders surging on lower yields, and key upcoming guests and shows.

    —
    FOLLOW US
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    Twitter: @RiskReversal
    LinkedIn: RiskReversal Media



    How The SPX Reaches Mike Wilson's 7,800 Target Apr 17, 2026
    Show notes

    Dan Nathan and Guy Adami welcome Morgan Stanley’s Chief U.S. Equity Strategist Mike Wilson back to the Risk Reversal Podcast to discuss his career at the firm and his current market outlook. Wilson argues markets have largely priced in bad news and likely put in the year’s lows near the 6,500 range, citing capitulation signals, positioning, and sentiment, though geopolitical risk from the Iran conflict remains. He sees earnings strength and broadening beyond the “Mag Seven,” with opportunities in small caps, consumer discretionary, financials, and industrials, while noting AI-driven hyperscalers became cheaper and can still work. Key risks include bond volatility and a loss of control of long-end rates amid heavy refinancing needs and a Fed leadership transition. They also cover AI CapEx returns, energy constraints, U.S.-China competition, private credit’s limited systemic threat, consumer affordability issues, and Wilson’s 7,800 S&P 500 target within 9 to 12 months.

    Show Notes

    • Earnings Insight (FactSet)
    • China’s surging chip tool imports from south-east Asia (FT)

    —
    FOLLOW US
    YouTube: @RiskReversalMedia
    Instagram: @riskreversalmedia
    Twitter: @RiskReversal
    LinkedIn: RiskReversal Media


    Does The Future Hold More Downside For Oracle? Apr 15, 2026
    Show notes

    Dan Nathan and Guy Adami discuss major tech themes and trades, focusing on dispersion in mega-cap tech and the recent underperformance and rebounds of the “Mag 7.” They examine Microsoft’s AI positioning and Azure deceleration amid ongoing capacity and power constraints, contrasted with rivals (AWS, Oracle, GCP) picking up demand tied to OpenAI. The conversation highlights Michael Burry’s view that software-stock declines have been amplified by software credit stress and may be overextended, with Oracle as a key example given its steep drawdown and elevated CDS. They also cover Apple’s AI strategy, reliance on Gemini, WWDC expectations to improve Siri, and key technical levels amid headline sensitivity. Finally, they assess Intel’s sharp rally tied to a reworked CHIPS deal and Nvidia involvement, and preview Netflix earnings with a mixed technical setup and potential upside.


    Show Notes

    • Trading Post Monday April 13th (Cassandra Unchained)
    • Top of the Morning (Axios)

    —
    FOLLOW US
    YouTube: @RiskReversalMedia
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    Twitter: @RiskReversal
    LinkedIn: RiskReversal Media


    Mission Impossible: Finding Value In A Volatile Market Apr 13, 2026
    Show notes

    Dan Nathan and Guy Adami discuss a volatile Friday session after a hotter-than-expected CPI, with software making multi-year lows while semiconductors push to highs, raising the idea that “something’s gotta give.” They point to Microsoft’s sharp drawdown as emblematic of software weakness and debate whether capitulation is near as earnings approach, while semis rally on incremental AI hardware headlines like Broadcom’s TPU-related deal with Google and Anthropic. They consider a 2026 “trade” of bottom-fishing battered software and fading crowded semis, flagging Intel’s rich valuation and Qualcomm’s lagging performance despite an edge-AI/inference narrative. They also note security stocks selling off despite rising AI-driven vulnerability concerns, warn that any hyperscaler CapEx pullback could hit semis hard, and preview bank earnings amid mixed signals on consumer credit, deregulation/IPO optimism, and cyclical risk, alongside geopolitics affecting oil and Taiwan.

    Articles Mentioned

    • Why the ‘SaaSpocalypse’ doomsayers are wrong (FT)
    • Anthropic Model Scare Sparks Urgent Bessent, Powell Warning to Bank CEOs (Bloomberg)


    —
    FOLLOW US
    YouTube: @RiskReversalMedia
    Instagram: @riskreversalmedia
    Twitter: @RiskReversal
    LinkedIn: RiskReversal Media


    Liz Ann Sonders: The Stock Market Isn’t A Casino Apr 10, 2026
    Show notes

    Guy Adami welcomes Liz Ann Sonders, Chief Investment Strategist at Charles Schwab, for a wide-ranging conversation on the state of modern markets. From the casino-like trading environment that has taken hold in recent weeks, to the deeper cultural forces driving younger investors toward speculation, Liz Ann brings clarity and perspective to some of the most pressing questions in finance today. They also explore behavioral biases, the value of staying disciplined through volatility, and what financial media should be saying but isn't.

    Show Notes

    • Gambler's Blues: Betting Isn't Investing (Schwab.com)
    • Follow Liz on Twitter: https://x.com/LizAnnSonders

    —
    FOLLOW US
    YouTube: @RiskReversalMedia
    Instagram: @riskreversalmedia
    Twitter: @RiskReversal
    LinkedIn: RiskReversal Media


    Sam Altman’s MisAI-lignment of OpenAI’s Financial Reality with Gene Munster Apr 08, 2026
    Show notes

    Dan Nathan and Gene Munster of Deepwater Asset Management discuss tech stocks heading into Q1 earnings, focusing on why Google and Broadcom outperformed on news of an Anthropic compute deal using Google TPUs and Broadcom, which they view as validating accelerating AI demand. They explore investor anxiety around AI hardware multiples and hyperscaler CapEx, noting street expectations for calendar 2027 spending growth and how that affects Nvidia and Broadcom sentiment, while arguing AI remains early despite massive costs. Munster outlines Deepwater’s view that premium “high-end” tokens may not commoditize as quickly as costs fall, citing their machine-driven Intelligent Alpha (GPT) ETF. They explain why they don’t own Microsoft, pointing to seat-growth concerns and disappointment with Copilot, and discuss Apple’s need for an AI narrative shift, including privacy-focused personalized AI. Munster previews his SpaceX views, saying it doesn’t need to go public but IPOs can broaden access and lower capital costs, and they consider whether a SpaceX listing impacts Tesla positioning.

    Show Notes

    • Read Ben Thompson's Stratechery
    • OpenAI CEO and CFO Diverge on IPO Timing (The Information)
    • Gene's Piece on SpaceX (X)

    —
    FOLLOW US
    YouTube: @RiskReversalMedia
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    Twitter: @RiskReversal
    LinkedIn: RiskReversal Media


    The IPO Floodgates Are Open + Private Equity's AI Wake-Up Call with CNBC's Deirdre Bosa & Rowspace's Michael Manapat Apr 06, 2026
    Show notes

    The IPO floodgates are opening — and AI is driving the wave.

    Dan Nathan sits down with CNBC anchor and tech columnist Deirdre Bosa to break down the biggest stories in tech right now: SpaceX's confidential IPO filing, the Anthropic vs. OpenAI battle for investor dollars, Apple's strange standoff with the vibe coding generation, and why the AI trade has been a dud in public markets even as private valuations soar.

    Then, Dan talks with Michael Manapat, Co-Founder and CEO of Rowspace — the AI-native financial data platform that just raised $50M in a Sequoia-led round. Michael breaks down why private equity and private credit firms can't afford to sit on the sidelines anymore, how Rowspace is deploying agents across every layer of their business, and what it really means to be "AI-native" in 2026.

    Two conversations. One throughline: the money is moving, the window is open, and the firms that don't adapt are already behind.

    —
    FOLLOW US
    YouTube: @RiskReversalMedia
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    Twitter: @RiskReversal
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    The $39 Trillion Warning Markets Are Ignoring Apr 03, 2026
    Show notes

    Danny Moses returns to the Risk Reversal Podcast with a stark warning: the tools that bailed us out in 2008 and COVID won't work this time. With U.S. debt surging from $35.5T to $39T in just 18 months, Danny explains why the Fed is boxed in, why small businesses are drowning in economic scar tissue, and why crude oil hitting 4-year highs while stocks shrug should have everyone paying attention. Plus — his one genuinely bullish conviction play in a market that's making optimism very hard to find.

    Checkout the WAWD Substack

    —
    FOLLOW US
    YouTube: @RiskReversalMedia
    Instagram: @riskreversalmedia
    Twitter: @RiskReversal
    LinkedIn: RiskReversal Media


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