What Signals Say 2026 Could Outperform a Strong 2025 for Retail Real Estate?
2026 might be the year retail real estate finally turns momentum into pricing power. Chris Ressa and Karly Iacono open with a confident call: next year will outperform an already-strong 2025, and the data is starting to line up behind it.
Holiday sales climbed roughly 4 percent year-over-year, outpacing inflation and reinforcing a simple truth: consumers keep spending, even when sentiment wobbles. The conversation breaks down the “K-shaped” economy, where higher-income shoppers drive discretionary growth while value-focused and necessity-based retail remains resilient across every income bracket.
The hosts point to sharper inventory discipline and steadier supply chains as quiet margin drivers, giving retailers more control over pricing and fewer forced discounts. On the real estate side, fewer major bankruptcies and limited space givebacks are tightening supply, setting the stage for a more landlord-driven market. The result: upward pressure on rents, stronger net operating income, and potential value gains as interest rates ease.
They also look ahead to demand catalysts, from global sporting events and America’s 250th anniversary to a new wave of store openings coming out of late-2025 leasing. While risks remain, from AI-driven job shifts to geopolitical uncertainty, the core bet is clear: tighter supply, resilient consumers, and disciplined operators could make 2026 a defining year for retail real estate.
What You’ll Hear
- The data points behind the call that 2026 tops a strong 2025
- Why consumer spending keeps winning over sentiment
- How the K-shaped economy is reshaping value, necessity, and discretionary retail
- Tighter supply, fewer bankruptcies, and what that means for landlord leverage
- Inventory discipline and supply chains as quiet drivers of pricing power
- NOI, rents, and value: how the real estate math is shifting
- Traffic catalysts ahead, from global events to a new wave of store openings
- The key risks still in play, from AI disruption to geopolitical shocks
Chapters
00:00 — The Bold Call for 2026
Chris and Karly open with a confident prediction that 2026 will outperform a strong 2025 for retail real estate and explain why they’re leading with the conclusion.
01:20 — Holiday Sales vs. Consumer Sentiment
A breakdown of holiday spending growth and why real consumer behavior matters more than surveys and headlines.
03:55 — The K-Shaped Economy in Retail
How higher-income and value-focused consumers are shaping different lanes of retail performance across categories.
05:55 — Inventory, Pricing, and Margin Control
Why better inventory discipline and steadier supply chains are giving retailers more leverage on pricing.
08:20 — Tariffs, Supply Chains, and Stability
What’s changed since early 2025 and why supply volatility feels less like a headline risk for 2026.
09:45 — Bankruptcies, Space, and Expansion Pressure
How fewer large retail failures are tightening available space and reshaping store rollout strategies.
12:10 — The Landlord’s Market and Rent Dynamics
A look at how pricing power, tenant improvements, and net effective rents could move in 2026.
13:45 — Disposable Income and Category Signals
Why tax changes, IPO activity, and home furnishings are flashing confidence in the consumer.
16:35 — Traffic Drivers and Big Event Energy
From the World Cup to America’s 250th, how major moments could translate into real retail foot traffic.
20:55 — Risks, AI, and the Black Swan Factor
A candid look at job disruption, geopolitical uncertainty, and what could derail an otherwise strong setup.
25:20 — NOI, Values, and the 2026 Outlook
How tighter supply, steady expenses, and easing rates could converge to lift property values.
27:00 — Final Take: Why 2026 Feels Different
Closing thoughts on momentum, discipline, and why retail real estate may be entering a defining year.
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