On The Market

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The Four Stages Of The Real Estate Cycle

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This Could Open Up Homebuying for Millions Jan 27, 2026

Show notes

This could open up homebuying for millions of Americans. The question is: Is it worth it?

A new housing proposal from the Trump administration adds yet another lever that first-time buyers can pull to pay for their first house. But it’s got financial advisors sweating.

We’re back with another headline episode, talking about recent moves shaking up the housing market. First, some good news from Redfin that shows the housing market is actually getting more… affordable? That’s right. A substantial decline in housing costs may be just the start as homebuyer purchasing power grows year over year. We’re on the right track…but will it continue?

Next, why mortgage rates went back up after Trump’s proposed $200B bond-buying exercise—when many expected rates to keep falling. Using a 401(k) to buy a home? One new proposal could make it penalty-free, opening up access to hundreds of thousands of dollars for average Americans. Finally, the big investor ban begins, but here’s what the actual executive order says.

In This Episode We Cover

Penalty-free 401(k) down payments? The On the Market panel is sharply divided

Affordability sees a massive win, but will it keep improving?

Why mortgage rates didn’t keep declining after Trump’s $200B bond purchase proposal

President Trump signs the long-awaited big investor ban—but will it actually change anything for homebuyers?

And So Much More!

Links from the Show

Join the Future of Real Estate Investing with Fundrise

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Find Investor-Friendly Lenders

On the Market 392 - Trump's Housing Proposals Could Work, There's Just One Problem

Redfin: Monthly Housing Costs Start the Year Down 5%, the Biggest Decline in Over a Year

Reuters: Trump's mortgage-backed bond purchases not moving needle on housing costs

HousingWire: Tapping a 401(k) for homeownership is risky business, experts say

TIME: Trump Is Moving to Bar Wall Street Firms From Buying Single-Family Homes.

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Why I’m Buying Large Multifamily in 2026 (Commercial Real Estate Outlook) Jan 22, 2026

Show notes

We’re always talking about residential real estate. But what about that “other” market, the one worth $24 trillion? It’s no secret that commercial real estate has had one of its toughest stretches in many years, with many calling it an outright “crash.”If we’ve already reached the bottom, could large multifamily and other assets be poised for a huge turnaround in 2026?

Over the last couple of years, we’ve seen multifamily, office, retail, and even self storage prices tumble due to several factors: rising mortgage rates, rate adjustments on commercial debt, higher cap rates, tighter lending criteria, and more supply coming online. This “perfect storm” has put significant downward pressure on commercial property values, causing forced selling and scaring many investors away.

But these same challenges could create opportunity, especially if prices stabilize over the next 12 months. We break down the variables at play, the most compelling bull and bear cases for these assets, and how investors can protect themselves with “scared” real estate analysis.

Dave is ready to take advantage, but which asset is he betting on?

In This Episode We Cover

Dave’s 2026 predictions for the commercial real estate market

Whether large multifamily values could bounce back in 2026

The “perfect storm” that caused the steep decline in large multifamily prices

The bull and bear cases for a commercial real estate turnaround

The asset class that is least likely to recover from the commercial “crash”

Four tips for investors looking to buy multifamily properties in the next 12 months

And So Much More!

Links from the Show

Join the Future of Real Estate Investing with Fundrise

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BiggerPockets Real Estate 1073 - The Opportunity is Coming in Commercial Real Estate (How to Take Advantage)

Buy the Book, "The Multifamily Millionaire, Vol. I"

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Trump’s Housing Proposals Could Work, There’s Just One Big Problem Jan 20, 2026

Show notes

The housing market is unaffordable. But the Trump administration is trying to change that. The question is: Will any of their proposals actually work?

Trump’s housing policy is clear: make buying a house more affordable for the average American. The President has floated50-year mortgages, portable mortgages, purchasing mortgage bonds, and banning institutional investors. All of these, to some extent, could make the housing market more affordable. But, there’s one big problem that these policies overlook—one that could make a future crash or bubble much more likely.

Today, we’re breaking down the Trump administration’s top housing policies and giving an honest look at which could work, which might be just hype, and whether any will actually fix the unaffordable housing market. Plus, Dave offers his own proposal for what could change the housing market (for good) and why investor “upside” could grow if any of Trump’s proposals actually pass.

Is this a boon for affordability, or could Trump’s best efforts backfire?

In This Episode We Cover

Trump’s current proposals to make the housing market more affordable (and which will work)

The crucial problem with the housing market 99% of politicians won’t touch on

A real estate bubble? A housing market crash? Why “affordable” changes could backfire

2026’s most likely scenario and why Dave is planning to buy even more real estate

Growing “upside” for rentals as Trump policies help homeowners get in the game

And So Much More!

Links from the Show

Join the Future of Real Estate Investing with Fundrise

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On the Market 373 - Trump Floats 50-Year Mortgages: Cash Flow Boost or Affordability Illusion?

On the Market 375 - Keep Your 3% Rate Forever? “Portable” Mortgages Could Be Coming

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Rates Fall to 5% Range as Big Investor “Ban” Gains Support Jan 15, 2026

Show notes

Big investors could be banned from buying single-family homes, mortgage rates drop to the lowest level in years, and one forgotten sector of real estate is predicted to “break out” in 2026. We’re only two weeks into the new year, but the housing market is shifting by the minute.

Mortgage rates fell into the 5% range last week as President Trump announced a plan to buy $200 billion in mortgage bonds. But this time, there’s no money printing involved. The question is…how long will these low rates last? Is this a temporary Band-Aid or a crucial move to get us closer to 5% mortgage rates?

But it’s getting even better for first-time homebuyers and small investors.Institutional investors could be banned from buying single-family homes, not only providing inventory relief but also preventing unfair competition in the market. This could be huge in a select few cities across the US, especially as HousingWire predicts one specific single-family investing strategy could see profits surge in 2026.

In This Episode We Cover

The new big investor “ban” and Trump’s urge to kick institutional money out of the housing market

One investing strategy HousingWire says has huge profit potential in 2026

Mortgage rates fall within 5% range through bond-buying—is this any different than quantitative easing?

Sellers continue to dwarf buyers, and these pockets are where you’ll find your best opportunities

And So Much More!

Links from the Show

Join us at the BiggerPockets Conference October 2-4 in Orlando. Buy tickets

President Trump Proposes to Ban Institutional Investors From Buying Single-Family Homes

Articles from Today’s Show:

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James' BiggerPockets Profile

Kathy's BiggerPockets Profile

CNN: Trump orders ‘my representatives’ to buy $200 billion in mortgage bonds

CNN: Trump threatens to ban institutional investors

HousingWire: Why the fix-and-flip sector is poised for a breakout in 2026

Redfin: The U.S. Housing Market Has 37% More Sellers Than Buyers

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An Economic Bubble is Forming…Just Not for Real Estate Jan 13, 2026

Show notes

A new economic bubble could be forming, and this time, it isn’t real estate. A $20 trillion ticking time bomb could explode if one thing doesn’t go completely right…the AI industry. And the effects could be felt far beyond the stock market, with real estate taking a hit as well.

The question is: Is the AI bubble close to popping, or are we on the precipice of a new era of economic growth?

Dave researched so you don’t have to, compiling the bullish and bearish arguments for AI. Top tech companies are spending over $500 billion in 2026 alone to make the AI dream come true, but strong counterarguments just might prove that those AI investments won’t pay off.

If the AI bubble bursts within the next few years, what will it do to the stock market? How will it affect home prices? And what is Dave doing right now with his money to protect against the downsides and position himself for the upsides if the AI bubble does finally burst? This is what could happen next.

In This Episode We Cover

A $527 billion bet that top tech companies are making on AI (is it worth it?)

What happens to home prices if over-hyped AI causes a stock market correction or crash

Four strong reasons why the AI bubble will (or won’t) burst

A $20 trillion ticking time bomb for the US economy if the AI industry doesn’t hit its targets

Why 99% of real estate investors are wrong about buying near data centers (be very careful)

And So Much More!

Links from the Show

BiggerPockets Real Estate 1188 - AI Could Take Your Job, But It Can't Take Your Real Estate

Gita Gopinath’s Big Warning: $35 Trillion Wealth Could be Wiped Out?

Join the Future of Real Estate Investing with Fundrise

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Rental Investors Become the Most Bullish in Years Jan 08, 2026

Show notes

This could be the best time to buy a rental property in years. Don’t take our word for it, a new investor sentiment survey shows a sharp surge in optimism as investors flipped from cautious to bullish going into 2026. And this hope for the housing market isn’t unfounded. In fact, almost all the data shows better buying conditions, more options, and even improved affordability. If you’re still believing the “housing crash” hype, 2026 could be a big wakeup call.

Wanting the investor side of the story, we put together a brand new investor sentiment survey, tracking how real estate investors feel going into 2026, what they’re most excited and nervous about, and whether they’re looking to purchase or pause over the next year. Today, we’re sharing the results.

We’ll also get into affordability, new inventory forecasts from the most accurate data providers in the market, and the strategy that real estate investors have the most confidence in for the 2026 housing market. If you thought investors were mass selling like the news and crash bros were telling you, this new data might be a big surprise.

In This Episode We Cover

Newest investor sentiment survey and why investors are becoming more bullish

A huge win for housing affordability (and whether it will get better in 2026)

Housing inventory forecasts from last year’s most accurate economists

The biggest challenge for real estate investors in 2026 (not so obvious)

One strategy that investors are betting on more than ever

And So Much More!

Links from the Show

BiggerPockets Real Estate 1222 - The 2026 State of Real Estate Investing: An “Easier” Road Ahead

BiggerPockets Pulse Investor Sentiment Survey

Bright MLS 2026 Forecast

Compass 2026 Forecast

Realtor 2026 Forecast

Join the Future of Real Estate Investing with Fundrise

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3 Things We’re Doing in 2026 to (Actually) Retire with Rentals Jan 06, 2026

Show notes

2026 is finally here! And if you can still read this sentence without seeing double, you’ve made it!

But this year, things are going to be a little… different. We usually talk about the best places or strategies for buying rentals, but we’re going on a bit of a detour to start the year by discussing our real estate resolutions, all of which will actively help us retire early. Want to retire with rentals, too? This is the episode for you, and we’re sharing the strategies we’re using in 2026 to get there.

Kathy shares a new way she’s optimizing her real estate portfolio, with the goal to increase cash flow by 10% on her current portfolio (not buying more rentals!). Henry takes an opposite approach to most investors, opting not to scale his portfolio and instead doing something much safer. Dave details his “End Game”—the ultimate real estate portfolio for early retirement.

You can copy these experts’ strategies in 2026 to retire with rentals, too!

In This Episode We Cover

How to use AI to optimize your portfolio and find the cash flow blind spots where you’re losing potential profits

Stop scaling? Why Henry is making moves to pay off some rentals instead (and whether you should, too)

Building your “End Game” portfolio to retire with rentals you actually enjoy owning

The three “buckets” of investing and a sign you’ve already outgrown yours (it could cost you)

Henry and Dave’s real goal that has nothing to do with real estate (can you help them out?)

And So Much More!

Links from the Show

Should You Pay Off Your Mortgage Early or Invest?

Henry's BiggerPockets Profile

Kathy's BiggerPockets Profile

Grab Kathy’s Book, "Scaling Smart"

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2026 Home Price Predictions: Will the Correction Continue? Jan 01, 2026

Show notes

Home prices are about to “bend”...but will they break? The 2026 housing market could be another year of a correction, but how low could we go?

Last week, we gave our mortgage rate predictions for 2026; this week, we’re focusing on home price forecasts. The housing market is stuck, and something needs to give. Americans can’t afford homes at these high prices, but with so many “locked-in” homeowners, where will the new supply come from? There are a few scenarios that could unfold, with different results that could greatly impact your buying, selling, and wealth-building.

This year feels…different. And while Dave shares his “most likely” scenario for home prices, two other scenarios (“upside” and “downside”) aren’t worth ruling out just yet. One “X factor” could shoot home prices high, with Americans rushing back to buy. But a downside risk could drive our correction even deeper. Dave describes the rental properties he’s looking to buy during this year of opportunity, along with the rules you must follow so you don’t get burned.

In This Episode We Cover

2026 home price predictions and whether the correction will continue into next year

The one crucial factor driving home prices (and what happens when it changes)

The “range” that home prices could be in this year, and what inflation-adjusted prices will look like

The “X factor” that has a chance to reset the hot housing market and drive down mortgage rates

What Dave is buying now and his exact buy box for “The Great Stall” market we’re entering

And So Much More!

Links from the Show

Join the Future of Real Estate Investing with Fundrise

Get Tickets to the Cash Flow Road Show!

BiggerPockets Real Estate 1207 - 2026 Mortgage Rate Predictions

BiggerPockets Real Estate 1197 - The “Great Stall” Has Begun

Grab Dave’s Book, "Real Estate by the Numbers"

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Real Estate Has Finally “Bottomed,” Says Top Investing Expert Dec 30, 2025

Show notes

Has real estate finally bottomed? Ben Miller, CEO of Fundrise (managing over $7B in real estate), says it’s so. And he’s not just talking about commercial real estate. If true, one particular type of real estate investment could do exceptionally well over the next year, but most people (even Dave!) are going in a different direction. Where could the next big real estate boom happen? We’re getting into it!

To continue this prediction season, Ben joins us to walk through a few crucial economic outlooks that could greatly affect the housing market. From AI stunting hiring to inflation actually going down (below 2%!), American wage trends changing dramatically, and the assets that will perform best, we’re getting his take as someone who manages billions of dollars in real estate.

Want mortgage rates to go down? We need lower inflation, and Ben says there’s good news on the horizon for stable prices. New technology adoption could lead to much lower inflation (even deflation in some cases). Could this be what reignites the housing market as mortgage rates react to a more stable economy? Ben gives his full take, with some surprises even Dave wasn’t prepared for.

In This Episode We Cover

The bottom for real estate prices? Why Ben thinks it’s here (or very close)

The end of runaway inflation: How AI could kill the concern over rising costs

More Americans making less, and what happens when AI takes tens of millions of jobs

The one type of residential real estate that is poised to perform best in 2026

A new AI tool that could be pivotal for rental property investing research

And So Much More!

Links from the Show

Join the Future of Real Estate Investing with Fundrise

Get Tickets to the Cash Flow Roadshow!

BiggerPockets Real Estate 1059 - 2025’s Massive Opportunity for Real Estate Investing (Before It’s Too Late) w/Ben Miller

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