On The Market

On the Market 315 - Stagflation Risk Rising Fast as US Economy Falls Out of Balance

J's BiggerPockets Profile

Grab J’s Book, “Recession-Proof Real Estate Investing”

Jump to topic:

(0:00) Intro
(2:04) Home Prices (Probably) Won’t Crash
(8:24) Still SO Undersupplied
(9:56) The “Technical” Recession Coming
(14:45) GDP Will Drop
(18:26) Inflation Forecast
(22:58) Just Buy American Goods?
(28:15) New Fed Chair?
(34:23) J’s Investment Plan

Check out more resources from this show on ⁠BiggerPockets.com⁠ and ⁠https://www.biggerpockets.com/blog/on-the-market-316

Interested in learning more about today’s sponsors or becoming a BiggerPockets partner yourself? Email ⁠advertise@biggerpockets.com⁠.

Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Stagflation Risk Rising Fast as US Economy Falls Out of Balance Apr 24, 2025

Show notes

Stagflation: the combination of two of the worst economic conditions—inflation and slow/no growth. With stagflation, prices rise, asset growth shrinks, unemployment increases, consumer confidence drops, and economic pain spreads. This is the first time in almost fifty years that the US has had to deal with what is an extremely rare economic scare. And with the Fed already under immense pressure to lower rates, is the US economy out of escape routes?

Today, we’re talking about stagflation—a trend that has worried major economists for months. Economic “warning signs” are already flashing as recession and inflation risks grow. But if we get hit with stagflation, how bad will it be, how long will it last, and how will it affect real estate? I’m explaining it all today.

We’ll walk through what happened during the 1970s stagflation crisis, how home and rent prices were affected, what’s causing today’s stagflation risk, and whether the Fed has any power left to mitigate the worst consequences of it. This could affect every American and anyone investing in American real estate, but have my investing plans changed? I’ll tell you what I’m doing next.

In This Episode We Cover

Stagflation explained and why it’s becoming a greater risk in 2025

Why the Fed may be out of options to fight stagflation and what’s causing it

Reviewing the 1970s stagflation crisis and what happened to real estate prices then

Inflation forecasts for 2025 and how much more prices could rise

My current investing plan and how I’m looking at real estate if stagflation strikes

And So Much More!

Links from the Show

Join the Future of Real Estate Investing with Fundrise

Find an Investor-Friendly Agent in Your Area

Real Estate Investors—You Should Be Very Concerned About Stagflation

Buy Real Estate the Right Way in Any Market Cycle with “Real Estate by the Numbers”

Check out more resources from this show on BiggerPockets.com and https://www.biggerpockets.com/blog/on-the-market-315

Interested in learning more about today’s sponsors or becoming a BiggerPockets partner yourself? Email advertise@biggerpockets.com.

Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Housing Market at Risk as Rates Rise, Dollar Weakens, Demand Freezes Apr 21, 2025

Show notes

The housing market may be at greater risk than many of us thought. An economic trifecta is forming. If all three conditions hit at once, it could spell serious problems for anyone in the real estate industry. We may be close to a time when high home prices, high mortgage rates, and a recession all meet, causing a significant slowdown with effects that could hurt everyone who buys, sells, or helps transact on homes. But how likely is this to happen?

The past month has been a wild ride for the economy. Mortgage rates fell dramatically but are now shooting back up. Inflation and unemployment fears are peaking as consumer confidence drops to unprecedented levels. And now, new tariffs could drive costs even higher. This could change everything, weakening the US dollar and making buying a house even harder.

Every real estate investor, agent, lender, or professional should understand these risks because the effects could be severe. In this episode, we’re breaking down all the latest economic changes and how they affect the housing market.

In This Episode We Cover

New risks to the housing market that could cause big changes for buyers and sellers

Why interest rates are starting to reverse, shooting back up EVEN with high recession risk

The trifecta of bad news for the housing market and what investors must know now

What a weakening dollar means for mortgage rates and the US economy as a whole

Transaction volume forecasts and whether we’ll still see a hot spring homebuying season

And So Much More!

Links from the Show

Join the Future of Real Estate Investing with Fundrise

BiggerPockets Real Estate 1106 - The One True “Inflation-Proof” Investment (EVEN with Tariffs)

Invest in Any Market Cycle with “Recession-Proof Real Estate Investing”

Check out more resources from this show on BiggerPockets.com and https://www.biggerpockets.com/blog/on-the-market-314

Interested in learning more about today’s sponsors or becoming a BiggerPockets partner yourself? Email advertise@biggerpockets.com.

Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

These Are The Perfect Investing Markets for 2025 Apr 17, 2025

Show notes

What if you could predict how a housing market performs before buying there? This would allow you to invest only in the best areas across the US, putting money down where you know it will multiply and letting you get leagues ahead of the other investors. This is MORE than possible, but you’ll need to know which metrics mean the most to an investing market. Neal Bawa has been doing this for years, building a huge real estate investing empire simply by looking at the data others often ignore. Today, he’s giving you his exact strategy.

Why should you NOT invest in your backyard? It may seem like the easiest place to start, but Neal says you could miss out on a massive upside by sticking to what is comfortable. As a data scientist, he puts the numbers before the hype, ditching cities that investors are flocking to and investing in those that only have the most solid fundamentals. He mentions one metric that makes a housing market grow or slow in rent prices, but which metric is it?

Today, Neal is sharing the best markets across the US to invest in, why renters prefer one type of housing over others (it’s not what you’d think), what Neal is buying NOW even with high interest rates and still (relatively) stubborn sellers, and why his six-metric formula is the key to predicting which markets will boom.

In This Episode We Cover

How to predict rent growth and home price growth in ANY market in America

Multifamily vs. single-family rentals and why one hybrid is beating both

Neal’s top 2025 markets to invest in using his six-metric market formula

Why Neal stopped making offers on apartments and started buying THIS instead

Is local real estate investing hurting your returns? Here’s why you may want to move your money

And So Much More!

Links from the Show

Join the Future of Real Estate Investing with Fundrise

13 Real Estate Hot Spots You Won’t Want to Miss Next Year

Neal's BiggerPockets Profile

Multifamily University

Grab the Book “Real Estate by the Numbers”

Jump to topic:

(0:00) Intro

(3:00) DON’T Invest in Your Backyard?

(6:34) This Metric Predicts Markets

(14:35) Tenants Want THIS Most

(22:26) Best Markets in America

(24:30) What Neal’s Buying NOW

(33:52) Connect with Neal!

Check out more resources from this show on BiggerPockets.com and https://www.biggerpockets.com/blog/on-the-market-313

Interested in learning more about today’s sponsors or becoming a BiggerPockets partner yourself? Email advertise@biggerpockets.com.

Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Inflation Fears Soar to 1980s Levels, Consumer Sentiment Sharply Plummets Apr 14, 2025

Show notes

Consumer confidence collapses, China flashes its “nuclear option,” Zillow goes after secret listings, and uh oh, renovations could get even pricier—what does it all mean for your investments?

Americans are dealing with severe trade war whiplash, and it’s starting to show. Consumer sentiment has fallen off a cliff in the most recent reading, with many Americans fearful that inflation will spike back up, the economy will slow way down, and we’ll be stuck in economic quicksand. How close is this to reality, and if average Americans are panicking, what should investors do to keep their sanity and portfolios stable?

It’s been quite a week, so we’re bringing you the biggest headlines from the housing market and more! Zillow fights to unlock some of the “gated” listings agents and brokers have been using to curate their clientele selectively. Don’t know what secret listings we’re talking about? There’s a good chance they were hidden from you, too!

China holds the “nuclear option” that could end the trade war, but will they use it, knowing that it could quickly send a shockwave across the shore and straight into China’s own economy? Plus, are things really that bad? According to Americans…yes. Consumer sentiment is now hovering around ten-year lows. Flipper confidence could be next, as construction costs may rise due to tariffs. How do you protect your deals, no matter what’s coming down the pipeline?

In This Episode We Cover

China’s secret weapon against high tariffs (and whether they’ll actually use it)

New consumer sentiment numbers that show just how bad Americans think the economy will get

Inflation expectations and why many Americans are prepared for a return to constantly rising prices

Zillow’s move to end listing gatekeeping and open up more housing options for ALL buyers

James’ time-tested advice to take NOW if you’re renovating or flipping a home

And So Much More!

Links from the Show

Join the Future of Real Estate Investing with Fundrise

Henry's BiggerPockets Profile

James' BiggerPockets Profile

Kathy's BiggerPockets Profile

On The Market 310 - Mortgage Rates Fall Fast as Tariffs Trigger Mass Stock Selloff, Economy at Risk

Zillow is fighting back against a push to make real estate listings more exclusive

The nuclear option China could take in trade war with the US

Tariff Implications for the Construction Industry, Wells Fargo Report

Tariff Implications for the Construction Industry

Consumer Sentiment Tanks in April on Recession Fears

Grab Dave’s Newest Book, “Start with Strategy”

Check out more resources from this show on BiggerPockets.com and https://www.biggerpockets.com/blog/on-the-market-312

Interested in learning more about today’s sponsors or becoming a BiggerPockets partner yourself? Email advertise@biggerpockets.com.

Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

A “Signal” That Multifamily Is Finally Bottoming Out (Time to Buy?) Apr 10, 2025

Show notes

Large multifamily, for the most part, has been an “uninvestable” asset for the past few years. Tons of new inventory hitting the market, short-term loans coming due, rising expenses, and stagnant rent growth are just a few reasons investors have avoided this asset like the plague. Even veteran multifamily investor Brian Burke sold off a majority of his portfolio when prices were sky-high. Now, the oracle of multifamily has come back to share why he thinks we have two years until this reverses.

Brian believes there’s a strong “signal” that sellers are about to get real, buyers will have more control, and rent prices will grow again. Could this be the bottoming out of the multifamily real estate market, or are we still years away from any recovery?

What about small “sweet spot” multifamily rentals or single-family homes? Are they worth investing in right now? Brian shares exactly which assets have the most (and least) potential and the recession indicators to watch that could throw the real estate market out of whack.

In This Episode We Cover

The state of large multifamily in 2025: Is it finally time to get back in the game?

The “sweet spot” multifamily properties small investors should be buying now

Why 2027 could be the year that the multifamily market reverses

Is residential real estate (single-family rentals) still a worthwhile buy in this housing market?

The $1,000,000,000,000 problem that the multifamily market is facing

And So Much More!

Links from the Show

Join the Future of Real Estate Investing with Fundrise

BiggerPockets Real Estate 1100 - The Ultimate Underrated Rental Property of 2025 (for Small Investors)

Brian's BiggerPockets Profile

Grab Brian’s Book, “The Hands-Off Investor”

Jump to topic:

(00:00) Intro

(00:33) What to Buy and What to Avoid

(04:13) Multifamily Sellers Must Wake Up

(08:30) Has Multifamily Bottomed Out?

(09:57) “Sweet Spot” Investments

(14:51) Will Rent Growth Return?

(20:28) An Opportunity for Single-Family Rentals?

(25:18) Is Now the Time to Buy?

(28:54) Recession Risks to Watch

Check out more resources from this show on BiggerPockets.com and https://www.biggerpockets.com/blog/on-the-market-311

Interested in learning more about today’s sponsors or becoming a BiggerPockets partner yourself? Email advertise@biggerpockets.com.

Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Mortgage Rates Fall Fast as Tariffs Trigger Mass Stock Selloff, Economy at Risk Apr 07, 2025

Show notes

Last week’s tariff announcement from the Trump administration put the stock market in a freefall. Major indexes are now past correction territory and on their way to crash status. But one silver lining for real estate investors? Mortgage rates. Economic fear is pushing more investors to buy bonds, lowering yields and mortgage rates. How long will suppressed mortgage rates last, and could rates fall even more?

The Trump administration’s latest round of tariffs may be the most significant change in economic policy in 50 years. This affects not just Americans but the entire world, as President Trump purposefully pursues a “deglobalization” strategy. This could force us to form new allies, break ties with old ones, and see a shift to much less reliance on foreign trade partners.

What does that mean for real estate investors? Well, you could see certain costs go up—significantly. We’ll discuss exactly which costs will rise, and by how much, and what investors should do to protect themselves—not panic—in this highly volatile time.

In This Episode We Cover

Trump’s latest tariff announcement explained and the countries that will be hit hardest

Why Canada and Mexico were excluded from the new round of tariffs

How economic fear affects interest rates, and whether these low(er) rates will last

One MASSIVE risk that could hurt all Americans if it comes to fruition

What Dave is doing right now to protect (and grow) his portfolio during downturns

And So Much More!

Links from the Show

Join the Future of Real Estate Investing with Fundrise

BiggerPockets Real Estate 1103 - April 2025 “Upside” Update: Making a BIG Change to My Portfolio (Cashing Out)

HousingWire: Trump’s ‘Liberation Day’ imposes dramatic global tariff regime

Invest During Any Market Cycle with “Recession-Proof Real Estate Investing”

Check out more resources from this show on BiggerPockets.com and https://www.biggerpockets.com/blog/on-the-market-310

Interested in learning more about today’s sponsors or becoming a BiggerPockets partner yourself? Email advertise@biggerpockets.com.

Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Americans Are Late on Their Mortgages: Why I’m NOT Worried About THAT Chart Apr 03, 2025

Show notes

Mortgage delinquencies are up…or are they? One chart that’s been circulating on social media would have you believe that a growing number of homeowners are on the brink of foreclosure, driving us toward another 2008-style collapse. Is the panic justified or unfounded? We’ll dig into the data in today’s episode!

A Freddie Mac chart has been doing the rounds recently, showing a massive jump in delinquencies, but what the data really reveals is a spike in another type of real estate delinquency—a trend that should come as no surprise, given how rising interest rates impact adjustable-rate loans. But what about residential real estate? Are regular homeowners now suddenly missing mortgage payments to 2008 levels?

There’s no denying that we’re entering a buyer’s market. While a 2008-style housing market crash is unlikely, inventory is growing, and home prices could decline another 2%-3%. Whether you’re a regular homebuyer or real estate investor, this means you have an unusual amount of negotiating leverage. We’ll share a strategy you can use to insulate yourself from a potential dip and capitalize on an eventual surge in home prices!

In This Episode We Cover

How mortgage delinquency rates impact the housing market overall

Why real estate is historically less volatile than stocks and other markets

The “canary in the coal mine” that could signal trouble for the housing industry

Why we’re seeing an (expected) surge in these mortgage delinquencies

Taking advantage of a buyer’s market and a potential “dip” in home prices

And So Much More!

Links from the Show

Join the Future of Real Estate Investing with Fundrise

Over 6 Million Americans Are Late on Their Mortgage Payments—Here’s What It Means for Investors

Grab the Book, “Recession-Proof Real Estate Investing”

Check out more resources from this show on BiggerPockets.com and https://www.biggerpockets.com/blog/on-the-market-309

Interested in learning more about today’s sponsors or becoming a BiggerPockets partner yourself? Email advertise@biggerpockets.com.

Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Housing Market Shift: Inventory Catapults Back, Buying Opportunities Grow Mar 31, 2025

Show notes

Home prices are falling fast in some prime real estate markets across the country while others remain stubbornly stuck. What’s the defining factor between a stable housing market and one where sellers are actively cutting prices? Housing inventory! This metric defined the 2020 - 2022 run-up in home prices, but the rubber band of demand is snapping back as buyer power grows, housing inventory rises, and investors get even better buying opportunities.

Remember when people said, “I’ll buy when prices drop”? Well, now might be the time.

ResiClub’s Lance Lambert joins us to provide a holistic view of housing inventory, prices, demand, and emerging opportunities. Lance walks through the most up-to-date data on where housing inventory is rising fast, where prices are quickly declining, and which markets are holding on as sellers remain in control.

We’ll also talk about why homebuilding costs are about to JUMP and the reason Warren Buffett sold his homebuilding stocks shortly after buying them. Will construction slow down, limiting new inventory and leading us back into ultra-low supply? If so, this could push home prices higher, creating a prime opportunity for real estate investors.

In This Episode We Cover

US real estate markets seeing the most and least new inventory, and where prices are falling

Is spiking inventory a worrying sign for the housing market, or are we merely normalizing?

What to look at in your housing market to forecast whether prices will rise or fall

Why are homebuilding costs about to JUMP, and could this lead to even more inventory problems?

The new housing trend: Older renters, but could this mean more demand for rentals?

And So Much More!

Links from the Show

Join the Future of Real Estate Investing with Fundrise

Find an Investor-Friendly Agent in Your Area

ResiClub: The cost breakdown for constructing a single-family home in 2024

ResiClub: Did Warren Buffett see this coming? Homebuilder margins face pressure in 2025

ResiClub: The vanishing young homebuyer: Median first-time homebuyer age jumps from 28 in 1991 to 38 in 2024

Inventory Is Key to a Stable Real Estate Market—Will It Recover?

Join Lance’s Newsletter

Grab Dave’s Book, “Real Estate by the Numbers”

Jump to topic:

(0:00) Intro

(1:27) Hottest and Coldest Markets

(8:00) Should We Be Worried?

(11:00) Where Prices Are Dropping

(14:54) What to Look For In YOUR Market

(17:39) Homebuilding Costs To JUMP

(21:48) Developer Profits Shrink

(24:11) Older Renters, Better for Investors

Check out more resources from this show on BiggerPockets.com and https://www.biggerpockets.com/blog/on-the-market-308

Interested in learning more about today’s sponsors or becoming a BiggerPockets partner yourself? Email advertise@biggerpockets.com.

Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Florida Pushes to Abolish Property Taxes, These States Could Follow Soon Mar 27, 2025

Show notes

Florida property taxes could drop to 0%. As the state struggles with some of the lowest affordability in the country, with home insurance almost doubling in five years and home prices increasing by more than 50% compared to pre-pandemic pricing, Floridian homeowners have seen their housing costs explode. So, what if they could save thousands of dollars a year by ditching property taxes?

If Florida makes it work, this could open up the floodgates for many other states to pass similar bills. But WILL it work? A significant amount of Florida’s tax revenue comes from property taxes, so will they be efficient enough to work with a tighter budget, or will infrastructure break down due to the massive loss in government funding?

And, if property taxes are eliminated, boosting affordability, could buyer demand surge as well? We ran the numbers, and the potential savings on housing costs are substantial. If Florida proves a successful 0% property tax test case, other states (including yours) could be next.

In This Episode We Cover

Florida’s new legislative push to abolish or reduce property taxes for homeowners

How much homeowners would save every month if their property taxes were eliminated

Can Florida afford to ban property taxes, and which services would be compromised if they did?

States that are most likely to eliminate property taxes if Florida succeeds

Serious side effects of eliminating property taxes and who pays the price

And So Much More!

Links from the Show

Join the Future of Real Estate Investing with Fundrise

Find an Investor-Friendly Agent in Your Area

How You Can Legally Minimize Rental Property Taxes as Much as Possible