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Is the UN underestimating the global fall in fertility? May 24, 2025

Show notes

Every two years, the UN release their predictions for the future population of humanity – currently expected to peak in the 2080s at around 10.3 billion people.

One of the things they use to work this out is the fertility rate, the number of children the average woman is expected to have in her lifetime. When this number falls below 2, the overall population eventually falls. In this episode of More or Less, we look at the fertility estimates for one country – Argentina. The graph of the real and predicted fertility rate for that country looks quite strange.

The collected data – that covers up to the present day – shows a fertility rate that’s falling fast. But the predicted rate for the future immediately levels out. The strangeness has led some people to think that the UN might be underestimating the current fall in global fertility.

To explain what’s going on we speak to Patrick Gerland, who runs the population estimates team in the United Nations Population Division.

Presenter / producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown Sound mix: Sue Maillot Editor: Richard Vadon

How dead is the internet? May 17, 2025

Show notes

In the early 2020s, a conspiracy theory started circulating online known as the “dead internet theory”.

This suggested that, instead of a vibrant digital super-community where people freely share things like cat videos and conspiracy theories, the internet was instead basically dead - an AI dystopia controlled by the deep state, where almost everything you see and interact with is generated by computers. The theory that the internet is 100% dead can be easily disproven, but the theory does hint at something real. The internet certainly is full of “bots”, autonomous bits of software that are definitely not alive.

In this episode, we investigate one specific claim about the number of these bots on the internet - the idea that more than half of internet traffic is bots. Where does this claim come from, and is it true?

Presenter/producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown Sound mix: Giles Aspen Editor: Richard Vadon

Warren Buffett’s brilliant bets May 10, 2025

Show notes

Warren Buffett has announced he is stepping down as CEO of his company, Berkshire Hathaway.

Buffett is one of the richest people in the world, and is widely held up as the greatest investor who ever lived. He’s also been remarkably critical of other masters of the financial universe.

Tim Harford talks to Financial Times journalist Robin Wigglesworth, author of the book Trillions, about Buffett’s money making method, and how he used a massive bet to make a point about hedge funds.

Presenter: Tim Harford Producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown Sound Mix: Giles Aspen Editor: Richard Vadon

Bonus episode: The Autism Curve May 05, 2025

Show notes

An interruption to your regular podcast feed: the first episode of a new BBC Radio 4 series investigating the steep rise in autism diagnoses.

The Autism Curve looks into the data that has prompted arguments - and conspiracy theories - about what’s behind the rapid rise. It goes on to explore changes in what autism is, who gets to define it, and whose experience counts.

In this first episode, Ginny Russell discusses her 20-year study that showed an astonishing eightfold rise in new autism diagnoses in the UK on an exponential curve. And Professor Joshua Stott explains how a surprising discovery at a dementia clinic led him to calculate that that enormous rise in diagnoses may still undercount the country’s autistic population by as much as 1.2 million.

Listen to the rest of The Autism Curve here: https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m002bszl

Archive: BBC; CSPAN; Fox News; CNN.

Presenter: Michael Blastland Series Producer: Simon Maybin Editor: Clare Fordham Sound mix: Neil Churchill Production Co-ordinator: Gemma Ashman

Donald Trump: 100 days fact-check May 03, 2025

Show notes

On the 29th April US President Donald Trump took to the stage in Michigan to celebrate his first 100 days in office.

This is a milestone in American politics, but is everything he claims the administration has achieved true?

The BBC’s US National Digital Reporter Mike Wendling joins us to fact-check President Trump’s claims on immigration, the stock market, fentanyl and….eggs.

Presenter: Lizzy McNeill Producer: Tom Colls Production Coordinator: Brenda Brown Sound mix: Jack Morris Editor: Richard Vadon

Are 80% of women really only attracted to 20% of men? Apr 29, 2025

Show notes

Netflix’s psychological drama Adolescence has started a debate about teenage boys and misogyny in modern society. It tells the story of a seemingly normal young boy, Jamie, who is arrested after the brutal murder of a girl in his class.

The series focuses on how young men are being radicalised against women by various podcasts, blogs and forums that make up the anti-feminist movement, the so-called ‘manosphere’. These podcasts often give men tips about how to be an ‘alpha’ male and promote the idea that feminism has set back men's rights. They use a range of material to back up their claims, including statistics. One such statistic was quoted in Adolescence and used to explain Jamie’s hatred towards women - that 80% of women are only attracted to 20% of men. Where does this claim come from and is it true? We look into the alleged maths behind the misogyny. Presenter/Producer: Lizzy McNeill Series Producer: Tom Colls Production Coordinator: Brenda Brown Sound Mix: James Beard Editor: Richard Vadon

The pioneers of proof Apr 19, 2025

Show notes

Here are More or Less we’ll all about the facts. Every day we use a toolkit of known proofs to try and answer our listeners’ questions. But who do we have to thank for this toolkit and how did they set about proving the unknown? Luckily for us mathematician Adam Kucharski has just written a book about this very topic called ‘Proof: The Uncertain Science of Certainty’. Join us to hear more about some of the proof pioneers included in his book, from estimating the number of German tanks during WW2 to an unsung heroine of statistics. Presenter: Tim Harford Producer: Lizzy McNeill Series Producer: Tom Colls Editor: Richard Vadon Production Co-ordinator: Brenda Brown Sound Mix: Annie Gardiner

How much is a human life worth? Apr 12, 2025

Show notes

What is the cash value of a human life?

That’s the question at the heart of The Price of Life, a book by journalist Jenny Kleeman. It turns out that there’s not just one price, there are many - depending on exactly how that life is being created, traded or destroyed. Tim Harford talks to Jenny about what she discovered.

Presenter: Tim Harford Producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown Sound mix: Neil Churchill Editor: Richard Vadon

Trump tariffs: All about the deficits Apr 04, 2025

Show notes

US President Donald Trump has announced sweeping tariffs on global trade, adding taxes of as much as 50% to imports from some countries.

The tariffs, he says, are “reciprocal” – calculated to address currency manipulation and trade barriers that other countries place on the US.

However, when you look at how the new tariffs were actually calculated, that claim does not add up.

Tim Harford speaks to Thomas Sampson, an associate professor at the London School of Economics, to understand what is going on.

Presenter: Tim Harford Producers: Lizzy McNeill and Nathan Gower Series producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown Sound mix: Neil Churchill Editor: Richard Vadon

Is one in four people in the UK disabled? Apr 02, 2025

Show notes

Donald Trump is raising tariffs on Canada, but has his northern neighbour done anything to deserve them?

In her Spring Statement, Chancellor Rachel Reeves announced that the UK’s fiscal “headroom” was, again, £9.9bn. We explore this curious coincidence.

Is it true that one in four people in the UK is disabled? And what does that mean for the state of our workforce?

Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news.

Presenter: Tim Harford Reporter: Lizzy McNeill Producer: Nathan Gower Series producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown Sound mix: James Beard Editor: Richard Vadon

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