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**More or Less**

Tim Harford explains – and sometimes debunks – the numbers and statistics used in political debate, the news and everyday life.

Latest Episodes:

Is the UK seeing a Christian revival? Jul 02, 2025

Show notes

Tim Harford looks at some of the numbers in the news and in life. This week:

Is church-going making a comeback in the UK?

Is it true that every day, 1000 people begin claiming personal independence payments, or PIP?

When the government talks about how it “returns” illegal immigrants, what does it mean?

Can a new telescope really see golf balls on the moon?

If you’ve seen a number you think looks suspicious, email the More or Less team: moreorless@bbc.co.uk

More or Less is produced in partnership with the Open University.

Presenter: Tim Harford Producers: Lizzy McNeill, Nicholas Barrett, David Verry Series producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown Sound mix: Gareth Jones Editor: Richard Vadon

Has Russia suffered a million casualties in the Ukraine war? Jun 28, 2025

Show notes

It’s been over three years since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine and the human toll is growing on both sides.

Recently, politicians and journalists have declared a grim milestone, one million Russian casualties.

But is this number accurate?

Tim talks to Seth Jones, from the Center for Strategic and International Studies, and Olga Ivshina, from the BBC Russian service, to investigate this statistic.

If you’ve seen a number in the news you think we should take a look at, email the More or Less team: moreorless@bbc.co.uk

Presenter: Tim Harford Producer: Nicholas Barrett Series producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown Sound mix: Gareth Jones Editor: Richard Vadon

Why is data on grooming gangs so bad? Jun 25, 2025

Show notes

Tim Harford looks at some of the numbers in the news and in life. In this episode:

Why is the data on the ethnicity of grooming gangs of such poor quality?

Iran has apparently enriched uranium to 60%, but what does that number mean?

Adam Curtis’s latest series, Shifty, includes claims about Margaret Thatcher’s rise to power. We ask Sir John Curtice, polling king of election night, if they’re accurate.

And we ask an economist to explain why being pillaged by a Viking might be more lucrative than you’d imagine.

If you’ve seen a number in the news you think needs a stern look, email the team: moreorless@bbc.co.uk

Presenter: Tim Harford Reporter: Josephine Casserly Producers: Nicholas Barrett, Lizzy McNeill and David Verry Series producer: Tom Colls Production coordinator: Brenda Brown Sound Mix: Gareth Jones Editor: Richard Vadon

How to spot a suspicious statistic Jun 21, 2025

Show notes

Untruths sneak into our lives in all kinds of ways. Sometimes they’re outright lies. Blatant misinformation.

But in this episode, we’re going to talk about something else - those sneaky numbers and claims that bounce around our society and that aren’t exactly false, but are leading you down the wrong path.

That’s the subject of a book called May Contain Lies by Alex Edmans, a professor of finance at London Business School.

Tim talks to Alex about the statistical claims that might not be wrong, but aren’t right either – and how to make sure you aren’t fooled by them yourself.

Presenter: Tim Harford Producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown Sound mix: Andrew Garratt Editor: Richard Vadon

Are 4% of young women in the UK on OnlyFans? Jun 18, 2025

Show notes

Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news, and in life. This week:

We debunk a false claim that the hotel bill for immigrants is the size of the tax bill for Manchester.

An article in the Spectator claimed that 4% of women aged between 18 and 34 in the UK are OnlyFans creators. We track down the source and discover that it is not very good.

Do people in Scotland use much more water than people in Yorkshire? If so, why?

And we examine a popular claim that today’s working mothers spend more time with their children than your stereotypical 1950s housewife did.

Make sure you get in touch if you’ve seen a number you think Tim and the team should take a look at. The email is moreorless@bbc.co.uk

Presenter: Tim Harford Reporter: Josephine Casserly Producers: Nicholas Barrett, Lizzy McNeill and David Verry Series producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown Sound mix: James Beard Editor: Richard Vadon

Could you be hit by a falling satellite? Jun 14, 2025

Show notes

The number of satellites orbiting our planet has been rapidly increasing in recent years. But what are the risks when they start falling back down to earth?

The European Space agency estimate that by 2030 there will be 100,000 satellites in orbit. We look at whether that estimate is realistic and what it means for those of us living on the ground below, with the help of Jonathan McDowell and Fionagh Thomson. Presenter: Tim Harford Producer: Lizzy McNeill Series Producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown Editor: Richard Vadon Studio Manager: James Beard

How do you make something 10-times more lethal? Jun 11, 2025

Show notes

What does the government mean when it commits to developing a “10-times more lethal” army?

Why was the much-missed Sycamore Gap tree said to be worth a strikingly exact £622,191?

Are there really twice as many people teaching Yoga as there are in the fishing industry?

Is the number of workers per pensioner really falling from 4 to 3 to 2?

And what did Donald Trump mean when he said the price of eggs had fallen by 400%?

Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news.

If you want us to look at a number you think looks a bit suspicious, email the team - moreorless@bbc.co.uk

Please note an earlier edition of the programme incorrectly stated that the new EU-UK fishing agreement would last 4 years. The agreement length is 12 years.

More or Less is produced in partnership with the Open University.

Presenter: Tim Harford Reporter: Lizzy McNeill Producer: Nicholas Barrett Series producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown Sound mix: Neil Churchill Editor: Richard Vadon

Is the world’s population being miscounted? Jun 07, 2025

Show notes

Exactly how many people live on our planet is one of those difficult-to-answer questions. The UN estimates is 8.2 billion, but that’s largely based on census data, which is certainly not a perfect measure.

So when a recent study from Finland found that rural populations around the world had been underestimated by 50 to over 80%, the media got quite excited. This would be a big error - a 50% underestimate would mean the actual number of people in an area is double the number they thought there were.

One newspaper in Spain - El Mundo - did its own sums and said this meant there were potentially 2 billion more people in the world than we currently think there are.

But is it what the researchers in Finland actually meant?

“Absolutely not,” says Josias Lang-Ritter, a researcher from University in Finland and a co-author of the study.

Tim Harford speaks to Josias to figure out the right way of understanding the study.

Presenter: Tim Harford Producer: Caroline Bayley Series producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown Sound mix: Nigel Appleton Editor: Richard Vadon

Does the average American have fewer than three friends? Jun 04, 2025

Show notes

Tim Harford is here to sprinkle a refreshing shower of statistical insight over the parched lawns of misinformation.

This week, we try to unpick the confusion over a claim made by London Mayor Sadiq Khan about the contribution skilled immigrants make to the nation’s finances.

Mark Zuckerberg says that the average American has fewer than 3 friends. Is he right?

Two doctors claim that up to 90% of Alzheimer’s disease can be prevented. Are they wrong?

And Tim interviews an American, Catholic, philosopher of religion called Robert Prevost. Is he the pope?

If you’ve seen a number in the news you think we should look at, email the team – moreorless@bbc.co.uk

Presenter: Tim Harford Reporter: Lizzy McNeill Producers: Nicholas Barrett and Nathan Gower Series producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown Sound mix: Nigel Appleton Editor: Richard Vadon

Factchecking the Trump administration’s Autism claims May 31, 2025

Show notes

Picking Robert F. Kennedy Jr., a known vaccine sceptic, as the Secretary for Public Health might not be the most ‘out there’ thing the Trump administration has done but it certainly raised some eyebrows. Since his appointment Kennedy has been on a mission to ‘Make America Healthy again’ and has set his sights on finding ‘the cure’ for Autism. Autism Spectrum Disorder is a neurological and developmental disorder that can affect how someone communicates, socialises, learns and behaves. In the 1980’s one study estimated that 4 in 10,000 (1 in 2500) children in Wisconsin had an Autism diagnosis. Recent data from the Centres for Disease control states that 1 in 31 eight year olds in the US have the condition. Why have the numbers gone up? Is it due to environmental toxins as Robert Kennedy suggests or does the answer lie in the counting? Presenter/Producer: Lizzy McNeill Series Producer: Tom Colls Production Co-ordinator: Brenda Brown Studio Manager: Andrew Mills Editor: Richard Vadon

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