Manifold

Latest Episodes:

Max Dama on HFT: Millisecond Algos and Bid/Ask Dynamics — #92 Aug 14, 2025

Show notes

Max Dama is the co-chairman of Headlands Technologies LLC, a global quantitative proprietary trading firm headquartered in Chicago, with offices in New York, Austin, London, Amsterdam and Singapore. He earned a B.A. in Mathematics, Statistics, Computer Science, and Business from the University of California, Berkeley.

A generation of quants know Max through his notes on automated trading and on interview brain teasers.

https://work-in-progress.notion.site/Max-Dama-s-Brainteasers-Study-Guide-WIP-9eb1f4b692f241d894462ddf1ab34617
http://isomorphisms.sdf.org/maxdama.pdf

Steve and Max discuss:

(00:00) - Introduction
(01:18) - Max Dama's Early Life and Education
(02:19) - Journey into Trading and Career Development
(06:56) - The High-Frequency Trading Industry
(26:42) - Academic Foundations for Trading
(27:50) - Computer Science in Trading
(28:57) - Insights into the Trading Industry
(35:49) - AI and the future of HFT

Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.
–
Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU. Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on X @hsu_steve.

Announcing this for some friends at Mechanize - a startup that builds environments for training and evaluating frontier LLMs. Its customers include the top AI labs, and it has contributed to the breakthrough in coding capabilities of frontier models.

Mechanize is hiring!

https://mechanize.work/b/hsu

Compensation is extremely competitive. For technical roles, $300-500k. They are also seeking smart generalists.

For example:

Research Engineer, Alignment: Build evals that test for misaligned model behaviors $500K salary

Puzzle Maker: Design interesting and original puzzles that LLMs can’t yet solve $300K salary

Mechanize understands that my readership is highly selected. There is a VERY GOOD CHANCE you will be interviewed if you apply via the link above.

Andrew Song: Global Cooling with Sulfur Dioxide in the Stratosphere — #91 Jul 31, 2025

Show notes

Andrew Song is a co-founder of Make Sunsets, a company focused on addressing climate change through solar geoengineering. The company launches balloons filled with sulfur dioxide (SO2) into the stratosphere with the aim of reflecting sunlight to cool the Earth.

https://makesunsets.com/

Previous Manifold episodes on climate:

Steve and Andrew discuss:

(00:00) - Introduction
(01:35) - Andrew's Background and Swimming Career
(06:37) - Journey into Startups and Y Combinator Experience
(11:30) - Make Sunsets: Concept and Science
(32:53) - Exploring Supersonic and Balloon-Based Solutions
(33:45) - Environmental Concerns and Biodegradable Solutions
(36:13) - Business Model and Cooling Credits
(39:26) - Future Prospects and Climate Modeling Challenges

Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.

–

Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU. Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on X @hsu_steve.

Mechanize is hiring!

https://mechanize.work/b/hsu

Compensation is extremely competitive. For technical roles, $300-500k. They are also seeking smart generalists.

For example:

Research Engineer, Alignment: Build evals that test for misaligned model behaviors $500K salary

Puzzle Maker: Design interesting and original puzzles that LLMs can’t yet solve $300K salary

Mechanize understands that my readership is highly selected. There is a VERY GOOD CHANCE you will be interviewed if you apply via the link above.

Manifold Discord Channel: Live Q&A with Steve — #90 Jul 17, 2025

Show notes

Manifold has its own Discord channel! https://discord.gg/dvcHS6NX

The purpose of the channel is to create a community of listeners with shared interests. It developed from a series of in-person meetups with Steve in cities like SF, NYC, Singapore, Beijing, Shanghai.

Chapter markers:

(00:00) - Manifold Discord Channel, Live Q&A
(02:36) - Genomics and Predictive Genetics
(09:28) - Trump Administration, Epstein, and Political Commentary
(29:42) - Missile Defense Systems: Historical Challenges and Modern Realities
(36:48) - Failures and Cover-Ups in Missile Defense
(45:23) - Developing Intellectual Taste and Productivity Tips

Links related to Q&A:

Best genomic predictor for cognitive ability: https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1936401098345980207
Ted Postol on missile defense: https://www.manifold1.com/episodes/theodore-a-postol-nuclear-weapons-missile-technology-and-u-s-diplomacy-12
Sputnik moment: https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1873541234125316367

China-US comparisons:

Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.

–

Mechanize is hiring!

https://mechanize.work/b/hsu

Compensation is extremely competitive. For technical roles, $300-500k. They are also seeking smart generalists.

For example:

Research Engineer, Alignment: Build evals that test for misaligned model behaviors $500K salary

Puzzle Maker: Design interesting and original puzzles that LLMs can’t yet solve $300K salary

Mechanize understands that my readership is highly selected. There is a VERY GOOD CHANCE you will be interviewed if you apply via the link above.

Omar Shams: AI Founder and Google AI Agent Lead — #89 Jul 03, 2025

Show notes

Shams was trained in theoretical physics before becoming an AI engineer at DeepMind and founding the company Mutable, which was acquired by Google. He is now lead engineer for Google's software agent group.

Steve and Omar discuss:

(00:00) - Introduction
(01:18) - Journey from Physics to AI
(10:51) - Elon Tried to Buy DeepMind
(16:52) - Building Mutable and Auto Wiki as Context for LLMs
(33:39) - The Value of AI Talent and Meta's AI Hiring Spree
(42:58) - AI and The Workforce
(58:02) - The Intersection of Physics and AI

Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.

–

Mechanize is hiring!

https://mechanize.work/b/hsu

Compensation is extremely competitive. For technical roles, $300-500k. They are also seeking smart generalists.

For example:

Research Engineer, Alignment: Build evals that test for misaligned model behaviors $500K salary

Puzzle Maker: Design interesting and original puzzles that LLMs can’t yet solve $300K salary

Mechanize understands that my readership is highly selected. There is a VERY GOOD CHANCE you will be interviewed if you apply via the link above.

Patrick McGee: Apple In China — #88 Jun 19, 2025

Show notes

Patrick McGee is a longtime FT business reporter with extensive experience reporting on China. He is the author of the highly acclaimed Apple in China: the capture of the world's greatest company. Steve and Patrick discuss the history of Apple and its impact on technology development in China.

“The best book about Apple ever written, one of the best books about China ever written, and one of the best books about tech, period.” —Ben Thompson, Stratechery.

Apple in China on Amazon: https://www.amazon.com/Apple-China-Capture-Greatest-Company/dp/1668053373

(00:00) - Introduction to Patrick McGee and his Book
(03:05) - The Apple-Foxconn Partnership
(07:07) - China's Industrial Transformation and Apple's Role
(32:48) - Automation Challenges in Apple's Production
(34:50) - Chinese Innovation and Huawei's Rise
(36:15) - The Impact of US-China Trade Tensions
(38:08) - Apple's Internal Struggles and Future Outlook
(48:56) - Hidden gems in the book

Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.

–

Mechanize is hiring!

https://mechanize.work/b/hsu

Compensation is extremely competitive. For technical roles, $300-500k. They are also seeking smart generalists.

For example:

Research Engineer, Alignment: Build evals that test for misaligned model behaviors $500K salary

Puzzle Maker: Design interesting and original puzzles that LLMs can’t yet solve $300K salary

Mechanize understands that my readership is highly selected. There is a VERY GOOD CHANCE you will be interviewed if you apply via the link above.

GODZILLA DOWN! India-Pakistan Clash and Chinese Military Technology with TP Huang — #87 Jun 05, 2025

Show notes

Steve and TP discuss the implications of the recent air battle between India and Pakistan, which involved over 100 fighter jets and took place entirely beyond visual range (BVR). What is sensor fusion, and have the Pakistanis achieved it with Chinese technology? Does the PL-15 outrange and outperform Western air-to-air missiles? What are the implications for US-China military competition?

Read TP Huang on X: https://x.com/tphuang

(00:00) - GODZILLA IS DOWN! India-Pakistan Clash and Chinese Military Technology with TP Huang — #87
(00:32) - Introduction to the India-Pakistan Conflict
(02:15) - Details of the Air Battle
(04:40) - Expert Analysis by TP Huang
(08:34) - Analysis of Air Battle Tactics and Technology
(12:40) - Role of Chinese Technology
(16:13) - Implications for Future Warfare
(25:23) - Indian and Pakistani Military Strategies
(34:34) - Unexpected Aggression: India's Miscalculation
(36:52) - Pakistan's Strategic Restraint
(39:19) - The Rafale Controversy: A Deep Dive
(43:08) - Electronic Warfare: Myths vs. Reality
(52:31) - Future of Indian Air Force: Tough Choices Ahead

Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.

–

Mechanize is hiring!

https://mechanize.work/b/hsu

Compensation is extremely competitive. For technical roles, $300-500k. They are also seeking smart generalists.

For example:

Research Engineer, Alignment: Build evals that test for misaligned model behaviors $500K salary

Puzzle Maker: Design interesting and original puzzles that LLMs can’t yet solve $300K salary

Mechanize understands that my readership is highly selected. There is a VERY GOOD CHANCE you will be interviewed if you apply via the link above.

Robots, Small Models, and RL with DeepSeek Alumnus Zihan Wang — #86 May 22, 2025

Show notes

Zihan Wang is an AI researcher at Northwestern University, where he works on vision-language models, robotics, and reinforcement learning. Previously, he interned at DeepSeek, contributing to projects like DeepSeek-V2.

Zihan's homepage: https://zihanwang314.github.io/

(00:00) - Introduction
(01:13) - Zihan's Background, CS and AI Research in China
(11:09) - DeepSeek; Human capital flow from PRC to US
(16:07) - DeepSeek, Open Source and AI Research
(31:52) - Model Size and Performance Constraints
(33:01) - Data Bottleneck in Pre-trained Models
(34:12) - Transformer Architecture and Scaling Laws
(36:30) - Efficiency in Model Training
(47:44) - Chain of Experts Architecture
(01:01:06) - Future of AI and Robotics

Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.

–

Mechanize is hiring!

https://mechanize.work/b/hsu

Compensation is extremely competitive. For technical roles, $300-500k. They are also seeking smart generalists.

For example:

Research Engineer, Alignment: Build evals that test for misaligned model behaviors $500K salary

Puzzle Maker: Design interesting and original puzzles that LLMs can’t yet solve $300K salary

Mechanize understands that my readership is highly selected. There is a VERY GOOD CHANCE you will be interviewed if you apply via the link above.

Dan Collins: Tariffs and the Future of US Manufacturing — #85 May 08, 2025

Show notes

Dan Collins is Founder of Tyrell Chemical. He studied at Tsinghua University and spent 20 years working for companies like General Motors in China, helping to localize automotive manufacturing. Dan and Steve discuss tariffs, deindustrialization in America, the Go-Go days of rapid economic growth in PRC, and the future of the US-China relationship.

Follow Dan on X: https://x.com/DanCollins2011

(00:00) - Introduction
(01:25) - Dan's Early Life and Education in Michigan
(02:30) - Experiences in China, Tsinghua University
(05:42) - China's Educational and Economic Transformation
(14:39) - US-China Trade Relations and Joint Ventures
(41:48) - China's Auto Market
(42:38) - Weaponization of Customs and Nationalism
(43:20) - Impact of Tariffs on US Manufacturing
(44:28) - Chaos in Global Trade and Supply Chains
(49:34) - The Golden Screw Theory and Manufacturing Dependence
(51:50) - Strategies for Reindustrializing the US

Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.

–

Mechanize is hiring!

https://mechanize.work/b/hsu

Compensation is extremely competitive. For technical roles, $300-500k. They are also seeking smart generalists.

For example:

Research Engineer, Alignment: Build evals that test for misaligned model behaviors $500K salary

Puzzle Maker: Design interesting and original puzzles that LLMs can’t yet solve $300K salary

Mechanize understands that my readership is highly selected. There is a VERY GOOD CHANCE you will be interviewed if you apply via the link above.

Seeking Truth From Facts: AI, China, Tariffs, Geopolitics — #84 Apr 24, 2025

Show notes

This episode is a co-release with the podcast Seeking Truth From Facts: https://seekingtruthfromfacts.substack.com/

(00:00) - Introduction
(01:11) - China AI
(02:30) - DeepSeek
(04:21) - Redirecting Human Capital from finance
(08:42) - US Policy and Financial Incentives
(12:54) - China Meritocracy
(24:24) - Trump's Tariffs and China
(37:12) - European Defense and Security
(41:49) - US-China-Europe Relations

Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.

–
Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU. Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on X @hsu_steve.

Mechanize is hiring!

https://mechanize.work/b/hsu

Compensation is extremely competitive. For technical roles, $300-500k. They are also seeking smart generalists.

For example:

Research Engineer, Alignment: Build evals that test for misaligned model behaviors $500K salary

Puzzle Maker: Design interesting and original puzzles that LLMs can’t yet solve $300K salary

Mechanize understands that my readership is highly selected. There is a VERY GOOD CHANCE you will be interviewed if you apply via the link above.

Incels, Evo Psych, and Modern Literature with ARX-Han — #83 Apr 10, 2025

Show notes

Steve speaks with ARX-Han, an anonymous writer, about his book "Incel."

(00:00) - Introduction
(02:09) - Discussing the Novel 'Incel'
(06:08) - Character Analysis and Literary Influences
(13:32) - Themes of Evolutionary Psychology and Nihilism
(18:38) - Historical Context and Modern Inceldom
(26:18) - Impact of Dating Apps on Modern Relationships
(32:47) - Representation and Character Dynamics
(40:21) - Literary Comparisons and Philosophical Depth
(45:38) - Philosophical Underpinnings of Meaning
(48:14) - The Hard Problem of Consciousness
(50:38) - Free Will and Determinism
(52:53) - Darwinian Nihilism and Nick Land
(58:17) - Historical Perspectives on East Asian Civilization
(01:03:11) - The State of Literary Fiction
(01:16:45) - AI and Literature
(01:19:44) - AI and Human Meaning

Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.

–

Mechanize is hiring!

https://mechanize.work/b/hsu

Compensation is extremely competitive. For technical roles, $300-500k. They are also seeking smart generalists.

For example:

Research Engineer, Alignment: Build evals that test for misaligned model behaviors $500K salary

Puzzle Maker: Design interesting and original puzzles that LLMs can’t yet solve $300K salary

Mechanize understands that my readership is highly selected. There is a VERY GOOD CHANCE you will be interviewed if you apply via the link above.

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