Manifold

Latest Episodes:

Callum Williams: Economics, AI, and Technological Progress — #82 Mar 27, 2025

Show notes

Callum Williams is a senior economics writer for The Economist. He was educated at Oxford, Harvard, and Cambridge, and is the author of The Classical School: The Birth of Economics in 20 Enlightened Lives.

(00:00) - Introduction
(02:07) - US-Russia Relations
(03:18) - Trump and US Foreign Policy
(05:30) - Sanctions and Their Impact on Russia
(09:28) - Economic Resilience and Sanctions Evasion
(14:14) - Historical Context and Predictions
(29:37) - US Wealth Inequality
(40:37) - Debating Wealth Inequality and Welfare States
(42:35) - Homelessness and Government Intervention
(45:18) - Employment Rates and Economic Behavior
(50:12) - San Francisco's Homelessness Crisis
(53:46) - US vs. Europe: Economic Divergence
(01:06:06) - Cultural Differences in Economic Growth
(01:10:48) - AI and Job Market Transformation
(01:13:50) - Challenges in AI Adoption
(01:15:16) - Consumer vs. Business Tech Adoption
(01:15:56) - Slow AI Integration in Businesses
(01:17:34) - AI in Customer Service
(01:23:48) - Resistance to AI
(01:26:36) - AI and Productivity
(01:37:35) - Debates on Technological Progress

Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.

–

Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU.

Announcing this for some friends at Mechanize - a startup that builds environments for training and evaluating frontier LLMs. Its customers include the top AI labs, and it has contributed to the breakthrough in coding capabilities of frontier models.

Mechanize is hiring!

https://mechanize.work/b/hsu

Compensation is extremely competitive. For technical roles, $300-500k. They are also seeking smart generalists.

For example:

Research Engineer, Alignment: Build evals that test for misaligned model behaviors $500K salary

Puzzle Maker: Design interesting and original puzzles that LLMs can’t yet solve $300K salary

Mechanize understands that my readership is highly selected. There is a VERY GOOD CHANCE you will be interviewed if you apply via the link above.

Misha Laskin, Reflection.ai — From Physics to SuperIntelligence Mar 13, 2025

Show notes

Misha Laskin is CEO of Reflection.ai. He was trained in theoretical physics at Yale and Chicago before becoming an AI scientist. He made important contributions in Reinforcement Learning as a researcher at Berkeley, Google DeepMind, and on the Google Gemini project.

https://x.com/MishaLaskin

Steve and Misha discuss:

(00:00) - Introduction
(00:47) - Misha's Early Life and Education
(03:50) - Transition from Physics to AI
(05:47) - First Startup Experience
(07:19) - Discovering Deep Learning
(08:06) - Academic Postdoc at Berkeley
(14:31) - Joining Google DeepMind
(16:36) - Reinforcement Learning and Language Models
(26:42) - Challenges and Future of AI
(48:30) - Unique Perspective from Physics

Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.

–

Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on X @hsu_steve.

Mechanize is hiring!

https://mechanize.work/b/hsu

Compensation is extremely competitive. For technical roles, $300-500k. They are also seeking smart generalists.

For example:

Research Engineer, Alignment: Build evals that test for misaligned model behaviors $500K salary

Puzzle Maker: Design interesting and original puzzles that LLMs can’t yet solve $300K salary

Mechanize understands that my readership is highly selected. There is a VERY GOOD CHANCE you will be interviewed if you apply via the link above.

Taylor Ogan, Snow Bull Capital: China's tech frontier, the view from Shenzhen, Part 2 Feb 27, 2025

Show notes

Taylor Ogan is Chief Executive Officer of Snow Bull Capital, based in Shenzhen, China. His firm invests in Chinese technology companies, with a focus on areas such as clean energy, AI, and automation.

Part 1 of this discussion, from November 2023: https://www.manifold1.com/episodes/taylor-ogan-snow-bull-capital-chinas-tech-frontier-the-view-from-shenzhen-47

Steve and Taylor discuss:

(00:00) - Introduction
(01:23) - Shenzhen: The Tech Hub of China
(04:14) - The Rise of Huawei and Its Impact
(06:59) - DeepSeek: China's AI Breakthrough
(11:32) - The Role of Government in Tech Development
(26:17) - Humanoid Robots: The Next Frontier
(38:01) - Huawei and PLA?
(40:49) - The Semiconductor Race
(43:13) - Huawei's accelerated chip development
(45:13) - Government's Role in Technological Advancements
(46:21) - China's Domestic Tech Ecosystem
(48:56) - Venture Capital and Entrepreneurship in China
(51:57) - Corporate Culture and Innovation
(55:48) - China's Competitive Edge in Various Industries
(01:00:00) - Perceptions and Realities of Chinese Tech
(01:08:37) - When will China be "investible" again for Western funds?

Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.

–

Mechanize is hiring!

https://mechanize.work/b/hsu

Compensation is extremely competitive. For technical roles, $300-500k. They are also seeking smart generalists.

For example:

Research Engineer, Alignment: Build evals that test for misaligned model behaviors $500K salary

Puzzle Maker: Design interesting and original puzzles that LLMs can’t yet solve $300K salary

Mechanize understands that my readership is highly selected. There is a VERY GOOD CHANCE you will be interviewed if you apply via the link above.

Ken Liu: Art in the Age of AI — #79 Feb 13, 2025

Show notes

Ken Liu (born 1976) is an American author of science fiction and fantasy. Liu has won multiple Hugo and Nebula Awards for his novel translations and original short fiction. Liu's short story "The Paper Menagerie" is the first work of fiction, of any length, to win all of the Nebula, Hugo, and World Fantasy Awards. Besides his original work, Liu's translation of Liu Cixin's Chinese language novel The Three-Body Problem (the first in the Remembrance of Earth's Past trilogy) won the 2015 Hugo Award for Best Novel, making it the first translated novel to have won the award.

He studied English Literature and Computer Science at Harvard College, and graduated from Harvard Law School.

https://kenliu.name/

Steve and Ken discuss:

00:00 Meet Ken Liu: Acclaimed Sci-Fi and Fantasy Writer

04:25 The Immigrant Experience and Cultural Perspectives

09:22 Harvard, MSFT, HLS, Litigation

15:01 The Art of Storytelling and Technology

34:03 Controversy in AI Reasoning

34:31 Technology Outstripping Science

35:22 AI and the Arts

38:30 The Future of AI in Art

42:44 AI's Role in Creative Processes

50:04 Art, Automation, and Society

57:31 Favorite Science Fiction and Fantasy

01:03:06 The Genius of Philip K. Dick

Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.

–

Mechanize is hiring!

https://mechanize.work/b/hsu

Compensation is extremely competitive. For technical roles, $300-500k. They are also seeking smart generalists.

For example:

Research Engineer, Alignment: Build evals that test for misaligned model behaviors $500K salary

Puzzle Maker: Design interesting and original puzzles that LLMs can’t yet solve $300K salary

Mechanize understands that my readership is highly selected. There is a VERY GOOD CHANCE you will be interviewed if you apply via the link above.

US-PRC Tech War: DeepSeek AI and 6th Generation Fighters — #78 Jan 30, 2025

Show notes

(00:00) - Introduction: AI, Miltech, and Balance of Power
(00:32) - DeepSeek AI R1 model
(02:36) - DeepSeek: top performance, 30x efficient compute
(10:37) - DeepSeek technical innovations
(15:38) - The AI Race: U.S. vs. China
(34:20) - Fighter Jets and Military Technology
(42:54) - Fifth to Sixth Generation Fighter Programs
(46:13) - Technology of China's 6th Generation Planes
(52:20) - Chinese Sixth Generation Aircraft Capabilities
(01:00:50) - Strategic Implications for the U.S. and Future Developments
(01:27:48) - Disabling Military Bases
(01:31:17) - Implications for the U.S. and China
(01:35:26) - Future Defense Strategies and Realities

Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.

Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU. Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on X @hsu_steve.

Mechanize is hiring!

https://mechanize.work/b/hsu

Compensation is extremely competitive. For technical roles, $300-500k. They are also seeking smart generalists.

For example:

Research Engineer, Alignment: Build evals that test for misaligned model behaviors $500K salary

Puzzle Maker: Design interesting and original puzzles that LLMs can’t yet solve $300K salary

Mechanize understands that my readership is highly selected. There is a VERY GOOD CHANCE you will be interviewed if you apply via the link above.

Jim Haslam: Covid Origins and Coronavirus Genetic Engineering — #77 Jan 16, 2025

Show notes

Relevant links:

Jim Haslam on X: https://x.com/jhas5
Jim's Substack: https://jimhaslam.substack.com/
Jim's book, "COVID-19: Mystery Solved," on Amazon: https://www.amazon.com/COVID-19-Mystery-Solved-leaked-Chinese-ebook/dp/B0DPVT9LWV?ref_=ast_author_cp_dp

Chapters:

(00:00) - A quick note on my interview with Jim Haslam
(03:40) - Introducing Jim Haslam, author of "COVID-19: Mystery Solved"
(04:51) - The DARPA DEFUSE Grant Proposal
(08:52) - Ralph Baric and Genetic Engineering of Coronaviruses
(20:10) - Danielle Anderson and the Wuhan BSL-4 Lab
(24:38) - The Role of EcoHealth Alliance and Peter Daszak
(29:28) - The Furin Cleavage Site Controversy
(36:43) - NIAID Funding and the Wuhan Connection
(40:53) - Capabilities and Limitations of the Wuhan Institute of Virology, Baric's Lab
(44:41) - The DEFUSE Grant and Wuhan Institute of Virology
(48:22) - RaTG13 Genome and Its Implications
(50:34) - Kristian Anderson's Alarming Discovery
(01:00:42) - Feb. 1 Teleconference with Fauci & Baric; Feb. 3 NAS Meeting
(01:19:41) - Unintentional vs. Intentional Engineering
(01:21:28) - Tracing the Virus to Wuhan, Patient Zero, and the Role of Danielle Anderson
(01:29:38) - Rocky Mountain Lab and Virus Processing
(01:36:32) - Animal Models, Engineering Aerosol Transmission
(01:42:23) - The Smoking Gun Email

Mechanize is hiring!

https://mechanize.work/b/hsu

Compensation is extremely competitive. For technical roles, $300-500k. They are also seeking smart generalists.

For example:

Research Engineer, Alignment: Build evals that test for misaligned model behaviors $500K salary

Puzzle Maker: Design interesting and original puzzles that LLMs can’t yet solve $300K salary

Mechanize understands that my readership is highly selected. There is a VERY GOOD CHANCE you will be interviewed if you apply via the link above.

Joscha Bach: Consciousness and AGI — #76 Jan 02, 2025

Show notes

Joscha Bach is a German cognitive scientist, AI researcher, and philosopher known for his work on cognitive architectures, artificial intelligence, mental representation, emotion, social modeling, multi-agent systems, and the philosophy of mind.

Links of interest:

Steve and Joscha discuss:

(00:00) - Introduction
(01:26) - Growing up in the forest in East Germany
(06:23) - Academia: early neural net pioneers, CS and Philosophy
(10:17) - The fall of the Berlin Wall
(14:57) - Commodore 64 and early programming experiences
(15:29) - AGI timeline and predictions
(19:35) - Scaling hypothesis, beyond Transformers, universality of information structures and world models
(25:29) - Consciousness
(41:11) - The ethics of brain interventions, zombies, and the Turing test
(43:43) - LLMs and simulated phenomenology
(46:34) - The future of consciousness research
(48:44) - Cultural perspectives on suffering
(52:19) - AGI and humanity's future
(58:18) - Simulation hypothesis
(01:03:33) - Liquid AI: Innovations and goals
(01:16:02) - Philosophy of Identity: the Transporter Problem, Is there anything beyond memory records?

Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.

–

Mechanize is hiring!

https://mechanize.work/b/hsu

Compensation is extremely competitive. For technical roles, $300-500k. They are also seeking smart generalists.

For example:

Research Engineer, Alignment: Build evals that test for misaligned model behaviors $500K salary

Puzzle Maker: Design interesting and original puzzles that LLMs can’t yet solve $300K salary

Mechanize understands that my readership is highly selected. There is a VERY GOOD CHANCE you will be interviewed if you apply via the link above.

Adventures in Physics, Trump, and more, with the Information Theory podcast — #75 Dec 19, 2024

Show notes

This episode is an interview I did with the new podcast Information Theory. The host of Information Theory is an anonymous technologist trained in physics and machine learning.

Information Theory Podcast on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@InformationTheoryPod
Information Theory Podcast on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/6PbxeOYInRuH4DBXOAOq5u?si=q90fZh8PRUut5c1XG4K7Sw

(00:00) - Introduction to Information Theory podcast
(01:19) - The education of a physicist
(10:53) - Computational genomics
(19:40) - Thinking styles and collaboration in theoretical physics
(26:08) - Scientific progress and the Great Stagnation
(40:39) - University research administration
(45:05) - Reproducibility crisis
(57:58) - Impact of basic research
(01:03:16) - Critique of NIH and biomedical research
(01:06:48) - Personal reflections on Trump's re-election and an inside view of the 47 transition
(01:12:37) - Silicon Valley and US politics
(01:15:30) - Concerns and hope for America's future

Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.

Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU. Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on X @hsu_steve.

Mechanize is hiring!

https://mechanize.work/b/hsu

Compensation is extremely competitive. For technical roles, $300-500k. They are also seeking smart generalists.

For example:

Research Engineer, Alignment: Build evals that test for misaligned model behaviors $500K salary

Puzzle Maker: Design interesting and original puzzles that LLMs can’t yet solve $300K salary

Mechanize understands that my readership is highly selected. There is a VERY GOOD CHANCE you will be interviewed if you apply via the link above.

Pascal Lottaz: Neutrality, Geopolitics, and International Conflict — #74 Dec 05, 2024

Show notes

Pascal Lottaz is Associate Professor at Kyoto University’s Faculty of Law & Hakubi

Center. His research area is Neutrality Studies - the study of neutrality as a concept in international relations, sociology, international law, diplomacy, political science, security, and history.

Follow Pascal on X @Plottaz
Pascal's YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/@neutralitystudies

(00:00) - Professor Pascal Lattaz's background, early life, and experiences in Japan
(14:17) - Neutrality in international relations
(20:07) - Ukraine's struggle for neutrality
(28:44) - Debating the Ukraine conflict
(37:50) - Physics, social sciences, and observer-independent reality
(46:13) - The importance of dissent in open societies
(47:01) - Russian resilience, NATO, escalation strategies, and potential outcomes
(51:43) - European realism and U.S. influence
(56:16) - Incentive structures and NATO dynamics
(01:04:11) - Japan's strategic position and U.S. alliance
(01:13:49) - Potential conflicts and proxy wars in East Asia
(01:30:35) - Philippines' strategic dilemma
(01:36:26) - Concluding thoughts

Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.

Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU. Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on X @hsu_steve.

Mechanize is hiring!

https://mechanize.work/b/hsu

Compensation is extremely competitive. For technical roles, $300-500k. They are also seeking smart generalists.

For example:

Research Engineer, Alignment: Build evals that test for misaligned model behaviors $500K salary

Puzzle Maker: Design interesting and original puzzles that LLMs can’t yet solve $300K salary

Mechanize understands that my readership is highly selected. There is a VERY GOOD CHANCE you will be interviewed if you apply via the link above.

Letter from Shanghai: Reflections on China in 2024 — #73 Nov 21, 2024

Show notes

(00:00) - Overview: 3 weeks in China
(02:33) - The China knowledge problem: Grappling with Reality
(06:54) - Physics seminars in Shanghai and Beijing
(15:54) - Chinese academia, challenges in scientific culture
(22:43) - Yu Min: Two Bombs, One Satellite
(27:02) - He Jiankui and gene editing, plus the future of biotech in China
(33:32) - China's AI and chip war strategy. Impact of U.S. policies on semiconductor industry
(35:46) - Quiet confidence in China's technological advancements
(37:17) - Discovering my father's history in Yunnan, etched in stone
(41:04) - Climbing Jade Mountain on election night: Trump Triumph
(48:31) - Shanghai modern infrastructure and technology
(51:16) - High-speed rail in China
(53:12) - Visit China - or at least watch some travel videos on YouTube!

Links to X posts made during my trip - check out the whole timeline

during this period.

PPP and US vs PRC Real GDP

https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1851653168158949492

PhD student asks me whether Jews control US politics:

https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1852179736035778768

Note to retards, on "Chicoms":

https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1852195575434715645

Yu Min and the Chinese H-bomb:

https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1852497112635671016

https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1852497765353558371

Me and He Jiankui:

https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1852693355601199262

Dali:

https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1853239642075648356

https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1853247317840629820

https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1853301562480718195

Lijiang:

https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1854395254105047484

https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1854503079669838057

MAGA on the Mountain:

https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1854015799901495674

Business-class lie flat seats on HSR:

https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1855042439280791977

Kumming:

https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1855050351755641106

https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1855409317937098864

https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1855748351855071433

https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1856215080637215222

https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1856239700362834006

https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1856533059509653578

https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1856634646160683273

Shanghai:

https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1857282310099386857

https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1857391783770276314

https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1857574060122845381

https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1857653348557603255

https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1858033981276467535

Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.

Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU. Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on X @hsu_steve.

Mechanize is hiring!

https://mechanize.work/b/hsu

Compensation is extremely competitive. For technical roles, $300-500k. They are also seeking smart generalists.

For example:

Research Engineer, Alignment: Build evals that test for misaligned model behaviors $500K salary

Puzzle Maker: Design interesting and original puzzles that LLMs can’t yet solve $300K salary

Mechanize understands that my readership is highly selected. There is a VERY GOOD CHANCE you will be interviewed if you apply via the link above.

Our TOPPODCAST Picks

Follow Us

Stay Connected

Related Podcasts

Links

Stay Connected