Manifold

Latest Episodes:

Letter from Beijing, with Han Feizi — #72 Nov 07, 2024

Show notes

Han Feizi is the pseudonym of a columnist for Asia Times, who covers the Chinese economy, technology, and US-China competition. The author lives in Beijing, and has an extensive background in finance and investment banking.

Han Feizi's articles for Asia Times: https://asiatimes.com/author/han-feizi/

Chapters:

00:00 Introduction to the guest: Han Feizi
01:39 What it's like in Beijing right now

06:38 Modern Conveniences in Beijing

12:11 What the economy feels like for ordinary people

19:09 China's economic structure: consumption, infrastructure investment, Michael Pettis

30:32 Currency Valuation and PPP: real PRC is significantly larger than US economy

31:45 US high living standards and manufacturing competitiveness

34:13 Globalization and its discontents

40:15 Reversing globalization and the myth of American exceptionalism

45:58 China's increasingly high quality standards and quality of life

58:09 Whither China? Xi Jinping

Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.

Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU. Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on X @hsu_steve.

Announcing this for some friends at Mechanize - a startup that builds environments for training and evaluating frontier LLMs. Its customers include the top AI labs, and it has contributed to the breakthrough in coding capabilities of frontier models.

Mechanize is hiring!

https://mechanize.work/b/hsu

Compensation is extremely competitive. For technical roles, $300-500k. They are also seeking smart generalists.

For example:

Research Engineer, Alignment: Build evals that test for misaligned model behaviors $500K salary

Puzzle Maker: Design interesting and original puzzles that LLMs can’t yet solve $300K salary

Mechanize understands that my readership is highly selected. There is a VERY GOOD CHANCE you will be interviewed if you apply via the link above.

Seeking Truth From Facts: Israel and Iran, Missile Defense, China Economic Development Oct 24, 2024

Show notes

This is a crossover episode with the Seeking Truth From Facts podcast.

(00:00) - Iranian missile attack vs Israel and missile defense
(13:10) - Is there potential for a 1973-style oil crisis?
(21:41) - Is NATO getting tired of the proxy war in Ukraine?
(25:43) - Why has Europe declined relatively since 2008 and what are the consequences of said decline?
(30:13) - Is procyclical European fiscal policy to blame?
(34:51) - Has China's infrastructure boom been a white elephant?
(41:37) - China's energy grid and solar energy transision
(46:57) - Will India catch up to or overtake China?
(57:06) - Is liberal democracy really necessary for long-term economic prosperity?
(01:00:14) - How did Lee Kuan Yew transform Singapore?

Links:

Iran ballistic missiles and missile defense

https://stevehsu.substack.com/p/iran-vs-israel-implications-for-missile

Pershing 2 Missile

https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1843450614552113316

Russia-Ukraine war and Iran blowback

https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1844551899103863154

India development

https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1814994391502667953

https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1815047688829706279

Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.

Mechanize is hiring!

https://mechanize.work/b/hsu

Compensation is extremely competitive. For technical roles, $300-500k. They are also seeking smart generalists.

For example:

Research Engineer, Alignment: Build evals that test for misaligned model behaviors $500K salary

Puzzle Maker: Design interesting and original puzzles that LLMs can’t yet solve $300K salary

Mechanize understands that my readership is highly selected. There is a VERY GOOD CHANCE you will be interviewed if you apply via the link above.

Samo Burja: Intellectuals, Culture. and the Technosphere — #70 Oct 10, 2024

Show notes

Samo Burja founded Bismarck Analysis, a consulting firm that investigates the political and institutional landscape of society. He is a Senior Research Fellow in Political Science at the Foresight Institute where he advises on how institutions can shape the future of technology. Since 2024, he has chaired the editorial board of Palladium Magazine, a non-partisan publication that explores the future of governance and society through international journalism, long-form analysis, and social philosophy. From 2020 to 2023, he was a Research Fellow at the Long Now Foundation where he studied how institutions can endure for centuries and millennia.

Samo writes and speaks on history, institutions, and strategy with a focus on exceptional leaders that create new social and political forms. Image has systematized this approach as “Great Founder Theory.”

Steve and Samo discuss:

(00:00) - Introduction
(01:38) - Meet Samo Burja: Founder of Bismarck Analysis
(03:17) - Palladium Magazine: A West Coast Publication
(06:37) - The Unique Culture of Silicon Valley
(12:53) - Inside Bismarck Analysis: Services and Clients
(21:35) - The Role of Technology in Global Innovation
(32:13) - The Influence of Rationalists and Effective Altruists
(48:07) - European Tech Policies and Global Competition
(49:28) - The Role of Taiwan and China in Tech Manufacturing
(51:12) - Geopolitical Dynamics and Strategic Alliances
(52:49) - China's Provincial Power and Industrial Strategy
(56:02) - Urbanization and Demography, Ancient Society
(59:41) - Intellectual Pursuits and Cultural Dynamics
(01:04:09) - Intellectuals, SF, and Global Influence
(01:13:45) - Fertility Rates, Urbanization, and Forgotten Migration
(01:22:24) - Interest in Cultural Dynamics and Population Rates
(01:26:03) - Daily Life as an Intellectual

Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.

Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on X @hsu_steve.

Mechanize is hiring!

https://mechanize.work/b/hsu

Compensation is extremely competitive. For technical roles, $300-500k. They are also seeking smart generalists.

For example:

Research Engineer, Alignment: Build evals that test for misaligned model behaviors $500K salary

Puzzle Maker: Design interesting and original puzzles that LLMs can’t yet solve $300K salary

Mechanize understands that my readership is highly selected. There is a VERY GOOD CHANCE you will be interviewed if you apply via the link above.

Deus Ex Machina: A Man, Machines, and God Sep 26, 2024

Show notes

This is a crossover episode in which https://x.com/loubohan interviews me for his podcast Deus Ex Machina.

I was obviously in an exuberant mood for this interview - it's one of my favorites!

Deus Ex Machina podcast:

https://open.spotify.com/episode/7mXUfNJdNnOjGfu6VGactr?si=Y3j1OZG4QsGdPhXd8dKsrw…

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Growing up in Iowa. Athletics, Chinese culture. KMT and military family background.
(11:48) - Hearing about the Cultural Revolution from my dad: his family experienced it firsthand in Zhejiang. Meanwhile, US experts and academics were entirely deluded about reality in PRC
(20:55) - "Experts" are often miscalibrated
(35:03) - Physicists and finance. Was Charlie Munger right to say it's a waste of talent to channel top brains into finance?
(45:15) - Hedgehogs, Foxes, and Eagles. Polymathy.
(48:41) - Development of modern China as the greatest story of the last 50 years. My first visit to China: the Shenzhen Special Economic Zone in 1992. US-China competition and the future of Asian Americans.
(56:52) - Genomic Prediction. Genomics of cognitive ability. Leftists holding back genetic science. PING = NIH-funded Pediatric Imagining, Neurocognition, and Genetics study. Stephen J. Gould was a fraud. Asian culture (pragmatic realism) and resistance to woken...
(01:05:20) - Physics and Free Will. Meat machines programmed by evolution to have an illusion of self?
(01:10:04) - Copenhagen Interpretation of QM: Is there true randomness in Physics? Many Worlds, Foundations of QM, and groupthink in modern physics.
(01:19:09) - Christianity, raised as a Methodist by my mother, whose family has been Christian since the 19th century. Religious Experience vs Physics viewpoint. Meat machines programmed by evolution to have mystical religious feelings?
(01:21:28) - Raising children, family, happiness, the meaning of life in view of my father's life
(01:24:34) - The meaning of life, "All is Vanity" (Ecclesiastes), Religion

Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.

–

Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU. Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on X @hsu_steve.

Mechanize is hiring!

https://mechanize.work/b/hsu

Compensation is extremely competitive. For technical roles, $300-500k. They are also seeking smart generalists.

For example:

Research Engineer, Alignment: Build evals that test for misaligned model behaviors $500K salary

Puzzle Maker: Design interesting and original puzzles that LLMs can’t yet solve $300K salary

Mechanize understands that my readership is highly selected. There is a VERY GOOD CHANCE you will be interviewed if you apply via the link above.

Seeking Truth From Facts: Alf & Steve Hsu — #68 Sep 12, 2024

Show notes

This is a crossover episode in which Alf of the Seeking Truth from Facts podcast interviews Steve Hsu about the Chinese economy and political system, and US-China competition.

Seeking Truth From Facts podcast: https://substack.com/@seekingtruthfromfacts/p-148705853

Steve and Alf discuss:

(00:00) - Introduction to the Podcast Collaboration
(00:48) - Steve Hsu's Background and Expertise
(02:22) - US-China Geopolitical Dynamics
(28:44) - China's Political System: Meritocracy vs. Autocracy
(32:23) - China's Path to Liberalization: Past, Present, and Future
(45:57) - Geopolitical Dynamics: China, Russia, and the West

Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.

–

Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU. Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on X @hsu_steve.

Mechanize is hiring!

https://mechanize.work/b/hsu

Compensation is extremely competitive. For technical roles, $300-500k. They are also seeking smart generalists.

For example:

Research Engineer, Alignment: Build evals that test for misaligned model behaviors $500K salary

Puzzle Maker: Design interesting and original puzzles that LLMs can’t yet solve $300K salary

Mechanize understands that my readership is highly selected. There is a VERY GOOD CHANCE you will be interviewed if you apply via the link above.

Letter from Reykjavik: Genomics, Chess, Hyperscaling genAI, and Quantum Black Holes — #67 Aug 29, 2024

Show notes

This is a short episode recorded at the end of a trip to Caltech (LA), Frankfurt, and Reykjavik.

Black hole information and replica wormholes at Caltech (talk slides):
https://stevehsu.substack.com/p/black-hole-information-and-replica

00:00 Intro: summer in Iceland

02:04 deCODE genetics

05:52 Chess: Bobby Fischer in Reykjavik

11:56 Hyperscaling genAI

23:11 Synthetic data and Hyperscaling

24:26 Is the Transformer architecture enough for AGI?

29:45 Quantum black holes

Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.

Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU. Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on X @hsu_steve.

Mechanize is hiring!

https://mechanize.work/b/hsu

Compensation is extremely competitive. For technical roles, $300-500k. They are also seeking smart generalists.

For example:

Research Engineer, Alignment: Build evals that test for misaligned model behaviors $500K salary

Puzzle Maker: Design interesting and original puzzles that LLMs can’t yet solve $300K salary

Mechanize understands that my readership is highly selected. There is a VERY GOOD CHANCE you will be interviewed if you apply via the link above.

Robin Hanson: Prediction Markets, the Future of Civilization, and Polymathy — #66 Aug 15, 2024

Show notes

Robin Hanson is a professor of economics at George Mason University. He has worked in a variety of fields, including Physics, AI, Economics, and Futurism.

Follow him at https://x.com/robinhanson

"When the typical economist tells me about his latest research, my standard reaction is 'Eh, maybe.' Then I forget about it. When Robin Hanson tells me about his latest research, my standard reaction is 'No way! Impossible!' Then I think about it for years." -- Prof. Bryan Caplan, GMU

0:00 Introduction

00:34 Welcome and Manifest conference introduction

03:12 Robin Hanson: Education and Early Influences

08:38 Transition from Physics+AI to Social Science and Economics

22:02 Prediction Markets: Potential and Challenges

28:37 Cultural Drift and Challenges to Modern Society

40:49 Fertility and Demography

48:37 Life as a Polymath

59:27 Future of Artificial Intelligence and the Simulation Question

01:09:29 Audience Q&A

Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.

Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU. Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on X @hsu_steve.

Mechanize is hiring!

https://mechanize.work/b/hsu

Compensation is extremely competitive. For technical roles, $300-500k. They are also seeking smart generalists.

For example:

Research Engineer, Alignment: Build evals that test for misaligned model behaviors $500K salary

Puzzle Maker: Design interesting and original puzzles that LLMs can’t yet solve $300K salary

Mechanize understands that my readership is highly selected. There is a VERY GOOD CHANCE you will be interviewed if you apply via the link above.

China Today: Myths and Realities — #65 Aug 01, 2024

Show notes

Steve discusses China myths and realities with Victor, a tech founder who ran a company in Beijing for 7 years. Among the topics covered: economic growth, real estate bubble, technology innovation, human capital, freedom of expression, Confucianism and Culture.

00:00 Introduction

02:02 Post-COVID economy and bursting of the real estate bubble

08:25 Semiconductor Industry and US-China Tech War

16:57 STEM Education and Workforce: China vs US

20:36 Slides on PRC human capital deepening, STEM and total workforce

39:58 Economic indicators and potential war economy

41:03 Singapore as model for PRC development, leadership exchanges

45:45 Travel plans, changes since pre-COVID era, YouTube travel content

53:00 Freedom of expression

1:02:20 Confucianism, leadership styles

1:17:57 Backyard Addendum: Further thoughts, travel to China

Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.

Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU. Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on X @hsu_steve.

Mechanize is hiring!

https://mechanize.work/b/hsu

Compensation is extremely competitive. For technical roles, $300-500k. They are also seeking smart generalists.

For example:

Research Engineer, Alignment: Build evals that test for misaligned model behaviors $500K salary

Puzzle Maker: Design interesting and original puzzles that LLMs can’t yet solve $300K salary

Mechanize understands that my readership is highly selected. There is a VERY GOOD CHANCE you will be interviewed if you apply via the link above.

Ivy League Anonymous: Great Awokening and Campus Radicals — #64 Jul 18, 2024

Show notes

Earlier episode, Harvard Veritas:

https://www.manifold1.com/episodes/harvard-veritas-interview-with-a-recent-graduate-anonymous-18

Chapter markers:

(00:00) - Introduction and Guest Welcome
(02:12) - Campus Protests and Media Perception
(06:29) - Student Political Views and Academic Freedom
(21:44) - Intellectual History of Wokeism
(35:46) - STEM vs. Humanities: A Cultural Divide
(54:30) - Future of Academia and Closing Thoughts

Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.

Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU. Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on Twitter @hsu_steve.

Mechanize is hiring!

https://mechanize.work/b/hsu

Compensation is extremely competitive. For technical roles, $300-500k. They are also seeking smart generalists.

For example:

Research Engineer, Alignment: Build evals that test for misaligned model behaviors $500K salary

Puzzle Maker: Design interesting and original puzzles that LLMs can’t yet solve $300K salary

Mechanize understands that my readership is highly selected. There is a VERY GOOD CHANCE you will be interviewed if you apply via the link above.

AI Global Odyssey: REAL Situational Awareness — #63 Jul 04, 2024

Show notes

Steve talks about AI in light of his recent travels to SF, Singapore, Manila, Berkeley, and Silicon Valley.

Chapters:

(00:00) - Overview: SF, Singapore, Manila, Berkeley
(01:48) - The AI Bubble in Silicon Valley
(04:00) - Scaling Laws and AGI
(23:36) - Global AI: Singapore, Philippines, real Enterprise applications
(34:59) - AGI: Manhattan Project? Manifest and P(doomers), Situational Awareness
(51:00) - China LLMs, Huawei vs Nvidia GPUs, US vs China AI race

Links:

Scaling Laws for Neural Language Models: https://arxiv.org/pdf/2001.08361
AI rollout in Philippines Call Centers: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kps3M1wMHUM
LLM rankings and Qwen2: https://huggingface.co/spaces/open-llm-leaderboard/blog
The Economist on China LLMs: https://archive.ph/nW7ch
Situational Awareness summary: https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1803414701159714825

Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.

Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU. Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on Twitter @hsu_steve.

Mechanize is hiring!

https://mechanize.work/b/hsu

Compensation is extremely competitive. For technical roles, $300-500k. They are also seeking smart generalists.

For example:

Research Engineer, Alignment: Build evals that test for misaligned model behaviors $500K salary

Puzzle Maker: Design interesting and original puzzles that LLMs can’t yet solve $300K salary

Mechanize understands that my readership is highly selected. There is a VERY GOOD CHANCE you will be interviewed if you apply via the link above.

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