Macro Musings with David Beckworth

Latest Episodes:

BONUS: George Selgin on *False Dawn: The New Deal and the Promise of Recovery* Oct 12, 2022

Show notes

George Selgin is a senior fellow and director emeritus of the Center for Monetary and Financial Alternatives at the Cato Institute and is also a long-time returning guest of Macro Musings. In this bonus segment from the previous conversation, George rejoins the podcast to talk about his new book project on the Great Depression titled, False Dawn: The New Deal and the Promise of Recovery. Specifically, David and George discuss the broad contours of the Great Depression, including its causes as well as the pros and cons of the New Deal solutions that followed.

Transcript for the episode can be found here.

George's Twitter: @GeorgeSelgin

George's Cato profile

David's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth

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Macro Musings: *Doug Irwin on the History of US Trade Policy*

Macro Musings: *Sebastian Edwards on FDR, Gold, and the Great Depression*

*American Default: The Untold Story of FDR, the Supreme Court, and the Battle over Gold* by Sebastian Edwards

Macro Lit Review 2: Highlights from Late 2022 with George Selgin Oct 10, 2022

Show notes

George Selgin is a senior fellow and director emeritus of the Center for Monetary and Financial Alternatives at the Cato Institute. George is also a frequent guest of the podcast, and he rejoins David on Macro Musings once again to discuss their top three articles from the past few weeks related to macroeconomics and monetary policy. Specifically, David and George talk about Jerome Powell's recent criticism of nominal GDP targeting, Lael Brainard's recent comments regarding FedNow and real-time payments, the debate surrounding the Fed's campaign against inflation, and a lot more.

Transcript for the episode can be found here.

George's Twitter: @GeorgeSelgin

George's Cato profile

David's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth

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*The Return of Inflation Makes Deficits More Dangerous* by Greg Ip

*Jerome Powell's Dilemma: What if the Drivers of Inflation Are Here to Stay?* by Nick Timiraos

*Primer: What is a Real-time Payments System, and Who Should Operate it?* by Thomas Wade

*Facts, Fears, and Functionality of NGDP Level Targeting* by David Beckworth

*Anchors Aweigh: The Transition from Commodity Money to Fiat Money in Western Economies* by Angela Redish

Bill English on the Effectiveness of QE and the Consequences of Fed Losses Oct 03, 2022

Show notes

Bill English is a professor at Yale University, a former senior Fed staffer, and a veteran of the Bank for International Settlements. Bill joins Macro Musings to talk about his time at the Federal Reserve, recent Fed developments, and a paper he co-authored titled, "What If the Federal Reserve Books Losses Because of Its Quantitative Easing?" David and Bill also discuss the Fed's recent low-inflation mandate, the QE effectiveness debate, and why we should and shouldn't be concerned about Fed balance sheet losses.

Transcript for the episode can be found here.

Bill's Yale profile

Bill's Federal Reserve profile

David's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth

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Related Links:

*What if the Federal Reserve Books Losses Because of its Quantitative Easing?* by William English and Donald Kohn

Macro Musings: *Donald Kohn on Fed Policy from the 1970s to Today*

*Think of Powell as Volcker's Wannabe Second Coming* by John Authers

Andrew Levin on the Costs and Benefits of QE4 and the Future of the Fed's Balance Sheet Sep 26, 2022

Show notes

Andrew Levin is a professor of economics at Dartmouth College and a former long-time Fed official. Andy is also a previous guest of Macro Musings and rejoins the podcast to talk about the costs and benefits of the Fed's QE4 program. David and Andy also discuss the Fed's recent record on inflation, QE4's impact on market functioning, the present and future of the Fed's balance sheet, and more.

Transcript for the episode can be found here.

Andrew's Dartmouth profile

Andrew's NBER archive

David's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth

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Related Links:

*Quantifying the Costs and Benefits of Quantitative Easing* by Andrew Levin, Brian Lu, and William Nelson

*Incorporating Scenario Analysis into the Federal Reserve's Policy Strategy and Communications* by Michael Bordo, Andrew Levin, and Mickey Levy

*What if the Federal Reserve Books Losses Because of its Quantitative Easing?* by William English and Donald Kohn

Steven Kelly on Crises, Stability, and the Fed's Role in Financial Markets Sep 19, 2022

Show notes

Steven Kelly is a senior research associate at the Yale Program on Financial Stability. Steven joins David on Macro Musings to discuss his work on financial stability and the role the Federal Reserve plays in it. Specifically, David and Steven discuss the Fed's evolving role in niche financial markets such as commodities and derivatives markets, what Section 13.3 of the Federal Reserve Act says about the Fed's basis to engage in financial markets, proposals to improve the Fed's Standing Repo Facility (SRF), the future of stablecoins and central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) in financial markets, and much more.

Transcript for the episode can be found here.

Steven's Twitter: @StevenKelly49

Steven's Substack: Without Warning

David's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth

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Related Links:

The Reserve (podcast) hosted by Kaleb Nygaard

New Bagehot Project, Yale Program on Financial Stability (YPFS)

"The Fed As Derivatives Dealer of Last Resort?" by Steven Kelly

"Could the Fed Rescue Commodities Markets?" by Steven Kelly

"Improving the Standing Repo Facility" by Steven Kelly

"Unappropriated Dollars: The Fed's Ad Hoc Lending Facilities and the Rules that Govern Them" by Lev Menand

The Fed Unbound: Central Banking in a Time of Crisis by Lev Menand

"Larry Ball on the Lehman Brothers Collapse and Its Role in the Great Recession", Macro Musings podcast episode (2018)

Scott Sumner on Alternative Approaches to Monetary Policy Sep 12, 2022

Show notes

Scott Sumner is the Ralph G. Hawtrey Chair of Monetary Policy at the Mercatus Center. Scott joins David on Macro Musings to look back on his contributions to monetary policy research with the Mercatus Center and elsewhere, as well as discuss his upcoming book, Alternative Approaches to Monetary Policy. In particular, Scott and David discuss how the Fed's monetary policy mistakes in 2008 impacted the direction of Scott's research, the theory and prospects for a nominal GDP futures contract, the future of monetary policy in the Eurozone and whether the ECB has gotten more hawkish, how changing macroeconomic conditions across history help explain the changing popularity of particular policy models, and much more.

Transcript for the episode can be found here.

Scott's Twitter: @ScottSumnerTMI

Scott's blog

Scott's Mercatus profile

David's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth

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Related Links:

"Nominal GDP futures targeting" by Scott Sumner

"A Market-Driven Nominal GDP Targeting Regime" by Scott Sumner

"Using Futures Instrument Prices To Target Nominal Income" by Scott Sumner

"The Impact of Futures Price Targeting on the Precision and Credibility of Monetary Policy" by Scott Sumner

Hanno Lustig on Fiscal Dominance, Inflation, and the Effects of Long-term Interest Rate Decline Sep 05, 2022

Show notes

Hanno Lustig is a professor of finance at Stanford University and a senior fellow at the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research. Hanno is also a former guest on Macro Musings and rejoins the podcast to talk about fiscal dominance, global inflation, interest rates, wealth and equality, and Eurozone challenges. David and Hanno also discuss how to reconcile Treasury yield movements with impending fiscal dominance, why we're seeing a long-term decline in real interest rates, the early trends in post-pandemic inflation, and more.

Transcript for the episode can be found here.

Hanno's Twitter: @HannoLustig

Hanno's Stanford profile

David's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth

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Related Links:

*What Drives Variation in the U.S. Debt/Output Ratio? The Dogs that Didn't Bark* by Hanno Lustig, Zhengyang Jiang, Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, and Mindy Xiaolan

*US Government Debt Valuation Puzzle* by Hanno Lustig, Zhengyang Jiang, Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, and Mindy Xiaolan

*Monetary Science, Fiscal Alchemy* by Eric Leeper

Joshua Younger on the Treasury Market: Structure, Stressors, and Potential Reforms Aug 29, 2022

Show notes

Josh Younger is currently a managing director and global head of ALM research and strategy at JP Morgan, and previously spent over a decade as a senior market strategist focused on interest rate and money markets. Josh joins David on Macro Musings to discuss the current state of the Treasury market and various reforms that have recently been proposed for it. Specifically, Josh and David discuss the history and evolving structure of the Treasury market, the emergence of high frequency trading firms over the past decade, the factors behind the 2020 dash for cash, current stresses on the Treasury market, as well as potential reforms for the market going forward.

Transcript for the episode can be found here.

David's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth

Click here for the latest Macro Musings episodes sent straight to your inbox!

Carola Binder on the Importance of Inflation Expectations and How Policymakers Should Respond Aug 22, 2022

Show notes

Carola Binder is an associate professor of economics at Haverford College and is currently a visiting scholar in the Monetary Policy Program at the Mercatus Center. She is also an associate editor at the Review of Economics and Statistics and the Journal of Money Credit and Banking. Carola rejoins Macro Musings to talk about inflation expectations and uncertainty. Specifically, David and Carola discuss why we should care about inflation expectations, which survey measures are most important, how policymakers should respond, and more.

Transcript for the episode can be found here.

Carola's Twitter: @cconces

Carola's Haverford site

Carola's Mercatus profile

David's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth

Click here for the latest Macro Musings episodes sent straight to your inbox!

*Stuck in the Seventies: Gas Prices and Consumer Sentiment* by Carola Binder and Christos Makridis

*Inflation Expectations and Consumption: Evidence from 1951* by Carola Binder and Gillian Brunet

*How Do Americans View Higher Inflation?* by Frank Newport

*Inflation Expectations and Consumer Spending: The Role of Household Balance Sheets* by Lenard Lieb and Johannes Schuffels

*Inflation Expectations and Readiness to Spend: Cross-Sectional Evidence* by Rudiger Bachmann, Tim Berg, and Eric Sims

*A New Measure of Monetary Shocks: Derivation and Implications* by Christina Romer and David Romer

Jeffrey Lacker on the Past, Present, and Future of Federal Reserve Policy Aug 15, 2022

Show notes

Jeffrey Lacker is a former president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, where he served as its head from 2004 to 2017, and more recently served as a distinguished professor of economics at the Virginia Commonwealth University School of Business through 2022. Currently, Jeff serves on the Shadow Open Market Committee. He joins David on Macro Musings to discuss the traditions of the Richmond Fed, the history of the Federal Reserve's implicit inflation target prior to 2012, the two percent inflation target the Fed formalized in 2012, the more recent transition to an average inflation target, what the Fed should consider during its next comprehensive framework review, and much more.

Transcript for the episode can be found here.

Jeffrey's website

Jeffrey's Richmond Fed profile

David's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth

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Related Links:

*A Look Back at the Consensus Statement* By Jeffrey Lacker

*Money Market Fund Reform: Dealing with the Fundamental Problem* by Jeffrey Lacker