Macro Musings with David Beckworth

Latest Episodes:

Christine McDaniel on the Russia Sanctions and Their Impact on Globalization and the Russian Economy Jun 06, 2022

Show notes

Christine McDaniel is a senior research fellow at the Mercatus Center where she focuses on trade and intellectual property rights issues. Christine previously held several positions in the US government, including deputy assistant secretary at the Treasury Department and senior trade economist in the White House Council of Economic Advisors. She has also worked in the economic offices of the US Department of Commerce, US Trade Representative, and the US International Trade Commission. Christine rejoins Macro Musings to talk about the economic sanctions applied to Russia, and their implication for the Russian economy and globalization more generally. Specifically, David and Christine also discuss the structure and effectiveness of the Russia sanctions, the war's heavy impact on food shortages, the role of dollar dominance in geopolitics, and more.

Transcript for the episode can be found here.

Christine's Twitter: @christinemcdan

Christine's Mercatus profile: https://www.mercatus.org/scholars/christine-mcdaniel

Related Links:

*We've Never Seen a Country Go Backwards as Quickly as Russia* by Christine McDaniel

https://thehill.com/opinion/international/3487291-weve-never-seen-a-country-go-backwards-as-quickly-as-russia/

*Estimating the Economic Effects of Sanctions on Russia: An Allied Trade Embargo* by Kornel Mahlstein, Christine McDaniel, Simon Schropp, and Marinos Tsigas

https://cadmus.eui.eu/bitstream/handle/1814/74493/RSC_WP_2022_36.pdf?sequence=1&isAllowed=y

*Potential Economic Effects of Sanctions on Russia: An Allied Trade Embargo* by Kornel Mahlstein, Christine McDaniel, Simon Schropp, and Marinos Tsigas

https://voxeu.org/article/potential-economic-effects-allied-trade-embargo-russia

*US Sanctions Reinforce the Dollar's Dominance* by Michael P. Dooley, David Folkerts-Landau, and Peter M. Garber

https://www.nber.org/papers/w29943#:~:text=Recent%20sanctions%20on%20the%20use,shock%20absorber%E2%80%9D%20for%20international%20payments.

David's blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com David's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth

Manmohan Singh on the Role and Structure of Stablecoins and the Impact of Collateral in the Financial System May 30, 2022

Show notes

Manmohan Singh is a senior economist at the International Monetary Fund and works on rehypothecation, shadow banking, the plumbing of the monetary system, and more. Manmohan joins Macro Musings to talk about stablecoins, central bank balance sheets, central bank digital currencies, and their broader implication for central banks. David and Manmohan specifically discuss the role and structure of stablecoins, the impact of collateral within the financial system, how the Fed have looked to address plumbing issues within this system, and more.

Take the Macro Musings listener survey here.

Transcript for the episode can be found here.

Manmohan's VoxEU profile: https://voxeu.org/users/manmohansingh0

Manmohan's Risk.net archive: https://www.risk.net/author/manmohan-singh

Related Links:

*Interoperability of Stablecoins* by Manmohan Singh, Caitlin Long, and Charles Kahn

https://www.centralbanking.com/fintech/7892256/interoperability-of-stablecoins

*How to Stop Stablecoins from Hoarding Precious Collateral* by Manmohan Singh and Caitlin Long

https://www.risk.net/comment/7948696/how-to-stop-stablecoins-from-hoarding-precious-collateral

*Money is Privacy* by Charles Kahn, James McAndrews, and William Roberds

https://www.jstor.org/stable/3663561

*Investors Withdraw Over $7 Billion from Tether, Raising Fresh Fears About Stablecoin's Backing* by Ryan Browne

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/17/tether-usdt-redemptions-fuel-fears-about-stablecoins-backing.html

David's blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com David's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth

Bill Nelson on How the Fed Fell Behind the Curve May 23, 2022

Show notes

Bill Nelson is the Chief Economist and an Executive Vice President at the Bank Policy Institute. Bill previously was a deputy director at the Division of Monetary Affairs at the Federal Reserve Board where his responsibilities included monetary policy analysis, discount window policy analysis, and financial institution supervision. He also worked closely with the BIS on the design of liquidity regulation. Bill joins David on Macro Musings to discuss the Fed's balance sheet, its reduction plans and how the Fed fell behind the curve. Specifically, David and Bill get into whether the Fed regretted its premature tightening period from 2015 to 2018, how the Fed's focus on the baseline outlook left it not resilient to alternative developments, how concerns over another taper tantrum impacted the Fed's decision-making, the Fed's handling of its FAIT framework, and much more.

Take the Macro Musings listener survey here.

Transcript for the episode can be found here.

Bill's Bank Policy Institute profile: https://bpi.com/people/bill-nelson/

Bill's American Banker archive: https://www.americanbanker.com/author/william-nelson-ab3618

Related Links:

"Plane Crashes and Falling Behind the Curve" by Bill Nelson

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/plane-crashes-falling-behind-curve-bill-nelson/?trk=articles_directory

"Guest post: A former Fed insider explains the internal debate over QE3" by Bill Nelson

https://www.ft.com/content/254befb7-10f8-3f2c-a9a8-bc6226a6f1db

"The Potential Ineffectiveness of Policy at the Zero Bound" (Memo to the Federal Reserve Board of Governors) by Bill Nelson and Brian Sack

https://www.dropbox.com/s/fv21og7vpx1izml/BillNelsonMemo.pdf?dl=0

"Interpreting the Significance of the Lagged Interest Rate in Estimated Monetary Policy Rules" by William B. English, William R. Nelson, and Brian P. Sack

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=314425

David's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth

David's blog: http://macromarketmusings.blogspot.com/

Josh Hendrickson on Economic Growth, National Defense, and US Monetary Policy May 16, 2022

Show notes

Josh Hendrickson is Associate Professor of Economics at the University of Mississippi and Chair of the Economics Department. Josh joins David on Macro Musings to discuss US monetary policy and US defense policy. Specifically, Josh and David discuss the coordination of fiscal and monetary policy and what Milton Friedman would think of it today, the Fed's responsibility for modern inflation trends, state capacity and how it impacts economic growth, the role of national defense in the context of state capacity and economic growth, and much more.

Take the Macro Musings listener survey here.

Transcript for the episode can be found here.

Josh's Twitter: @RebelEconProf

Josh's Ole Miss profile: https://economics.olemiss.edu/joshua-hendrickson/

Related Links:

*Central Banks are Inflation Creators, Not Inflation Fighters* by Joshua R. Hendrickson

https://www.mercatus.org/publications/monetary-policy/central-banks-are-inflation-creators-not-inflation-fighters

*Evolution, Uncertainty, and the Asymptotic Efficiency of Policy* by Brian C. Albrecht, Joshua R. Hendrickson, and Alexander William Salter

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3251917

*The Coronavirus and Lessons for Preparedness* by Josh Hendrickson

https://www.mercatus.org/publications/covid-19-crisis-response/coronavirus-and-lessons-preparedness

*Preventing Plunder, Military Technology, Capital Accumulation and Economic Growth* by Brian C. Albrecht, Joshua R. Hendrickson, and Alexander William Salter

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3025548

David's blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com David's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth

Peter Ireland on the Fed's Pandemic Performance and the Path Forward for Monetary Policy May 09, 2022

Show notes

Peter Ireland is a professor of economics at Boston College, a research associate at the National Bureau of Economic Research, and a member of the Shadow Open Market Committee. Peter has also been a visiting scholar at numerous Federal Reserve Banks and is a returning guest to the podcast. He rejoins Macro Musings to talk about U.S. monetary policy during the pandemic and what the path forward looks like for the Fed and the policy landscape. David and Peter also discuss the current state of macroeconomics, including the most influential and popular business cycle theories, the present direction of policy macro, and whether or not the Fed's current framework should shoulder blame for its pandemic policy missteps.

Take the Macro Musings listener survey here.

Transcript for the episode can be found here.

Peter's Twitter: @PIrelandEcon

Peter's Boston College profile: https://www.bc.edu/bc-web/schools/mcas/departments/economics/people/faculty-directory/peter-ireland.html

Related Links:

*The Continuing Case for Nominal GDP Level Targeting* by Peter Ireland

http://irelandp.com/papers/somc202204.pdf

*Targeting Nominal Income Under the Zero Lower Bound: The Case of the Bank of England* by Michael Belongia and Peter Ireland

https://centerforfinancialstability.org/amfm/studies/ukngdp2021.pdf

*Strengthening the Second Pillar: A Greater Role for Money in the ECB's Strategy* by Michael Belongia and Peter Ireland

http://irelandp.com/papers/eurongdp.pdf

*Facts, Fears, and Functionality of NGDP Level Targeting: A Guide to a Popular Framework for Monetary Policy* by David Beckworth

https://www.mercatus.org/system/files/beckworth-ngdp-targeting-mercatus-special-study-v2.pdf

*How to Ensure That Inflation Will Remain at the Federal Reserve's 2 Percent Target* by Robert Hetzel

https://www.mercatus.org/publications/monetary-policy/how-ensure-inflation-will-remain-federal-reserve%E2%80%99s-2-percent-target

David's blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com David's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth

Jens van 't Klooster on Recent ECB Policy: A Paradigm Shift Without Legislative Change May 02, 2022

Show notes

Jens van 't Klooster is a political economist at the University of Amsterdam's Department of Political Science. Jens rejoins David on Macro Musings to discuss the changes taking place at the European Central Bank. Specifically, Jens and David talk about the ECB's recent commitment to a gradual process of monetary tightening, the prospect and limitations of market neutrality in setting monetary policy, the rise of technocratic Keynesianism and questions surrounding the political legitimacy of the ECB's recent policy decisions, as well as the politics surrounding the ECB's approach to government debt.

Take our listener survey here.

Transcript for the episode can be found here.

Jens's Twitter: @jvklooster

Jens's website: https://jensvantklooster.com/

Related Links:

*The Myth of Market Neutrality: A Comparative Study of the European Central Bank's and the Swiss National Bank's Corporate Security Purchases* by Jens van 't Klooster and Clément Fontan

https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/13563467.2019.1657077

*Technocratic Keynesianism: A Paradigm Shift Without Legislative Change* by Jens van 't Klooster

https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/13563467.2021.2013791

*The Politics of the ECB's Market-Based Approach to Government Debt* by Jens van 't Klooster

https://academic.oup.com/ser/advance-article/doi/10.1093/ser/mwac014/6554757

David's blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com David's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth

Colin Grabow on Current Trends in US Trade Policy and the Adverse Impact of the Jones Act Apr 25, 2022

Show notes

Colin Grabow is a policy analyst at the Cato Institute's Center for Trade Policy Studies, and he joins Macro Musings to talk about US trade policies, the Jones Act, and the consequences of this harmful maritime statute. Specifically, David and Colin also discuss the counterfactual world of TPP, the future of international trade, and how to fix the myriad of problems caused by the Jones Act.

Transcript for the episode can be found here.

Colin's Twitter: @cpgrabow

Colin's Cato Institute profile: https://www.cato.org/people/colin-grabow

Related Links:

Cato's Project on Jones Act Reform: https://www.cato.org/project-jones-act-reform

*The Jones Act: A Burden America Can No Longer Bear* by Colin Grabow, Inu Manak, and Daniel Ikenson

https://www.cato.org/publications/policy-analysis/jones-act-burden-america-can-no-longer-bear

*Rust Buckets: How the Jones Act Undermines U.S. Shipbuilding and National Security* by Colin Grabow

https://www.cato.org/policy-analysis/rust-buckets-how-jones-act-undermines-us-shipbuilding-national-security

*The Progressive Case for Jones Act Reform* by Colin Grabow

https://www.cato.org/study/progressive-case-jones-act-reform#:~:text=The%20Jones%20Act%20is%20unwise,repeal%2C%20of%20this%20odious%20law

*Candy-Coated Cartel: Time to Kill the U.S. Sugar Program* by Colin Grabow

https://www.cato.org/policy-analysis/candy-coated-cartel-time-kill-us-sugar-program

*5 Years Later and the United States is Still Paying for Its TPP Blunder* by Colin Grabow

https://www.cato.org/blog/5-years-later-united-states-still-paying-tpp-blunder

*The Cato Trade Team's 2022 Policy Wish List* by Scott Lincicome, Inu Manak, Gabriella Beaumont-Smith & Colin Grabow

https://www.cato.org/blog/cato-trade-teams-2022-policy-wish-list

*For Inflation Relief, the United States Should Look to Trade Liberalization* by Gary Clyde Hufbauer, Megan Hogan, & Yilin Wang

https://www.piie.com/publications/policy-briefs/inflation-relief-united-states-should-look-trade-liberalization#:~:text=For%20inflation%20relief%2C%20the%20United%20States%20should%20look%20to%20trade%20liberalization,-Gary%20Clyde%20Hufbauer&text=With%20US%20inflation%20running%20at,calls%20anticompetitive%20behavior%20by%20corporations

*Biden's Frozen Trade Policy* by Anne Krueger

https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/trump-trade-policy-frozen-in-place-under-biden-by-anne-o-krueger-2022-02?barrier=accesspaylog

*Clashing over Commerce: A History of US Trade Policy* by Douglas Irwin

https://press.uchicago.edu/ucp/books/book/chicago/C/bo24475328.html

David's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth

David's blog: http://macromarketmusings.blogspot.com/

Nick Timiraos on Jerome Powell's Tenure as Fed Chair Apr 18, 2022

Show notes

Nick Timiraos is a Chief Economics Correspondent for the Wall Street Journal and rejoins Macro Musings to discuss his new book titled, *Trillion Dollar Triage: How Jay Powell and the Fed Battled the President and a Pandemic and Prevented Economic Disaster.* Specifically, David and Nick discuss Jay Powell's background and early career in law and finance, his unique path to being nominated as Fed Chair, how Powell's character has aided him in his eventful tenure as Fed Chair, how he was uniquely suited to usher in the change to the Fed's operating framework, and much more.

Check out the Conversations with Tyler episode featuring David Rubenstein.

Transcript for the episode can be found here.

Nick's Twitter: @NickTimiraos

Nick's Wall Street Journal profile: https://www.wsj.com/news/author/nick-timiraos

Related Links:

Check out the Conversations with Tyler episode featuring David Rubenstein: https://conversationswithtyler.com/episodes/david-rubenstein/

*Trillion Dollar Triage: How Jay Powell and the Fed Battle the President and a Pandemic and Prevented Economic Disaster* by Nick Timiraos

https://www.littlebrown.com/titles/nick-timiraos/trillion-dollar-triage/9780316272810/

David's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth

David's blog: http://macromarketmusings.blogspot.com/

Joey Politano on Recent Inflationary Trends and the Future Outlook for Monetary Policy Apr 11, 2022

Show notes

Joey Politano is an economist and a commentator who writes and publishes on a Substack newsletter named, "Apricitas Economics," where he covers a wide range of subjects on a number of economic topics. Joey joins Macro Musings to talk about inflation, monetary policy, and the issues surround them. Specifically, David and Joey discuss the outlook for services and durable goods inflation, the indicators of tightening financial conditions, lessons learned from monetary policy over the past decade, and more.

Transcript for the episode can be found here.

Joey's Twitter: @JosephPolitano

Joey's Substack: https://apricitas.substack.com/

Related Links:

*Inflation Hits 7.9%, and Things are Likely to Get Worse Before They Get Better* by Joseph Politano

https://apricitas.substack.com/p/inflation-hits-79-and-things-are?s=r

*Financial Conditions are Tightening as the Fed Raises Rates* by Joseph Politano

https://apricitas.substack.com/p/financial-conditions-are-tightening?s=r

*Understanding the Fed's Hawkish Pivot* by Joseph Politano

https://apricitas.substack.com/p/understanding-the-feds-hawkish-pivot?s=r

*Biden's Deep State is on Substack* by Alex Thompson, Tina Sfondeles, and Max Tani

https://www.politico.com/newsletters/west-wing-playbook/2022/01/10/bidens-deep-state-is-on-substack-495668

*Powell Says 'Inflation is Much Too High' and the Fed Will Take 'Necessary Steps' to Address* by Jeff Cox

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/21/powell-says-inflation-is-much-too-high-and-the-fed-will-take-necessary-steps-to-address.html

David's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth

David's blog: http://macromarketmusings.blogspot.com/

Eric Leeper on the Interactions of Fiscal and Monetary Policy Apr 04, 2022

Show notes

Eric Leeper is a professor of economics at the University of Virginia, an advisor to the Swedish and German central banks and a former Fed economist. Eric has written widely on the links between monetary policy and fiscal policy and joins David on Macro Musings to discuss these links and their implication for the price level. Specifically, Eric and David discuss the relationship between fiscal authorities and monetary authorities as it relates to fiscal dominance and monetary dominance, how the fiscal theory of the price level (FTPL) enhances our understanding of these relationships, how the FTLP can be applied to contemporary economies, what our expectations of fiscal policy should be moving forward, and much more.

Transcript for the episode can be found here.

Eric's UVA profile: https://economics.virginia.edu/people/profile/eml3jf

Eric's NBER archive: https://www.nber.org/people/eric_leeper?page=1&perPage=50

Related Links:

*Some Unpleasant Monetarist Arithmetic* by Neil Wallace and Thomas J. Sargent

https://www.minneapolisfed.org/research/quarterly-review/some-unpleasant-monetarist-arithmetic

*Equilibria under 'Active' and 'Passive' Monetary and Fiscal Policies* by Eric M. Leeper

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/4907434_Equilibria_Under_'Active'_and_'Passive'_Monetary_Policies

*Monetary Science, Fiscal Alchemy* by Eric M. Leeper

https://www.nber.org/papers/w16510

*The Fiscal Theory of Price Level with a Bubble* by Markus K. Brunnermeier, Sebastian A. Merkel, and Yuliy Sannikov

https://www.nber.org/papers/w27116