Macro Musings with David Beckworth

Latest Episodes:

David Wilcox on the Debt Ceiling Crisis and the Crippling Costs of Default Feb 20, 2023

Show notes

David Wilcox is a non-resident senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics and is the Director of Economic Research at Bloomberg Economics. Previously, David served for many years on the staff of the Federal Reserve Board, as deputy director from 2001 to 2011 and as director from 2011 to 2018 of the Division of Research and Statistics. In the latter role, he functioned as the chief economist of the division, a senior advisor to three successive chairs of the board, and the division leader for strategic direction as well as chief manager. David joins Macro Musings to talk about a recent article he wrote titled, *The Cost of the US Going Over the Fiscal Cliff is Trauma, Then Unending Pain.* David and David also discuss the debt ceiling issue more broadly, including the severity and timing of a technical default, the two big economic shocks that would result from a default, the possible solutions to pursue in the face of the this debacle, and more.

Transcript for the episode can be found here.

David Wilcox's Twitter: @D_W_Wilcox

David Wilcox's PIIE profile

David Beckworth's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth

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*Fiscal Policy Under Low Interest Rates* by Olivier Blanchard

*Mint the Coin? Buy Back Bonds? 7 'Gimmicks' for Dodging the Debt Limit* by Jeff Stein

Julie Hill on the History and Recent Developments of Fed Master Accounts Feb 13, 2023

Show notes

Julie Hill is a professor of law at the University of Alabama's School of Law and she specializes in the study of the regulation of financial institutions. Julie also has a new paper out titled, *Opening a Federal Reserve Account,* and she joins Macro Musings to talk about the history and recent developments surrounding Fed master accounts. David and Julie also discuss the legal basis for these accounts and the numerous case studies surrounding them, including the Narrow Bank, Reserve Trust, Custodia, and more.

Transcript for the episode can be found here.

Julie's Twitter: @ProfJulieHill

Julie's Alabama Law profile

David's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth

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Macro Lit Review 3: Highlights from Early 2023 with George Selgin Feb 06, 2023

Show notes

George Selgin is a senior fellow and director emeritus of the Center for Monetary and Financial Alternatives at the Cato Institute. George is also a frequent guest on Macro Musings and he rejoins the podcast to talk about some recent developments in the monetary and fiscal policy space. Specifically, David and George discuss new narratives around shadow banking and the financial crisis, the fiscal cost of large central bank balance sheets, the return of secular stagnation, and a lot more.

Transcript for the episode can be found here.

George's Twitter: @GeorgeSelgin

George's Cato profile

David's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth

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Related Links:

*A Monetary Policy Primer: Parts 1-12* by George Selgin

*Why Shadow Banking Didn't Cause the Financial Crisis* by Norbert Michel

*The Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet: Costs to Taxpayers of Quantitative Easing* by Andy Levin and Bill Nelson

*The Monetary Executive* by Christina Parajon Skinner

*Secular Stagnation is Not Over* by Olivier Blanchard

*The Hard Road to a Soft Landing: Evidence from a (Modestly) Nonlinear Structural Model* by Randal Verbrugge and Saeed Zaman

*Brazil and Argentina to Start Preparations for a Common Currency* by Michael Stott and Lucinda Elliott

*Floor Systems for Implementing Monetary Policy: Some Unpleasant Fiscal Arithmetic* by Aleksander Berentsen, Christopher Waller, and Alessandro Marchesiani

*Fallen Heroes: Central Banks Face Credibility Crisis as Losses Pile Up* by Johanna Treeck

*SNB Will Shrink Balance Sheet After Record Loss, Citigroup Says* by Bastian Benrath

*George Selgin on False Dawn: The New Deal and the Promise of Recovery* by Macro Musings

Michael Strain on Averting the Looming Debt Ceiling Disaster Jan 30, 2023

Show notes

Michael Strain is the Director of Economic Policy Studies and the Arthur F. Burns Scholar in Political Economy at the American Enterprise Institute and is a returning guest to Macro Musings. Michael rejoins the podcast to talk about the looming debt ceiling crisis and his recent article on the issue titled, *Averting a Debt-Ceiling Disaster.* David and Michael specifically discuss the background, history and recent events leading up to the current crisis, how to impose fiscal discipline in a low interest rate world, solutions the US government could pursue, and more.

Transcript for the episode can be found here.

Michael's Twitter: @MichaelRStrain

Michael's website

Michael's AEI profile

David's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth

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Related Links:

*Averting a Debt-Ceiling Disaster* by Michael Strain

*House Republicans Prepare Emergency Plan for Breaching Debt Limit* by Jeff Stein, Leigh Ann Caldwell, and Theodoric Meyer

*Extraordinary Measures* by the Bipartisan Policy Center

John Roberts on Macroeconomic Modeling at the Fed, Makeup Policy, and the Future of FAIT Jan 23, 2023

Show notes

John Roberts is a 36-year veteran of the Federal Reserve Board and mostly recently was the Deputy Associate Director in the Division of Research and Statistics, overseeing the board's domestic macroeconomic modeling efforts. From 2017-2019, John also served as a special advisor to Federal Reserve Governor Lael Brainard, where his responsibilities includes preparation of speeches, providing advice on monetary policy, macroeconomic forecasting, and regulatory attending FOMC meetings. John joins Macro Musings to talk about his time at the Fed, macroeconomic modeling at the institution, his work on the zero lower bound, and current Fed policy. Specifically, David and John also discuss the art of interpreting the Fed's Summary of Economic Projections, the future of modeling for policymakers at the Fed, the state of FAIT at the central bank, and a lot more.

Transcript for the episode can be found here.

John's blog

John's paper archive

David's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth

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Related Links:

*Monetary Policy in a Low Interest Rate World* by Michael Kiley and John Roberts

*Monetary Policy Strategies for a Low-Rate Environment* by Ben Bernanke, Michael Kiley, and John Roberts

*Unconventional Monetary Policy According to HANK* by Eric Sims, Jing Cynthia Wu, & Ji Zhang

Paul Tucker on *Global Discord: Values and Power in a Fractured World Order* Jan 16, 2023

Show notes

Paul Tucker is a 33-year veteran of the Bank of England, where among other positions, he served as both a member and deputy governor of the Monetary Policy Committee. Currently, Paul is a research fellow at the Mossavar-Rahmani Center for Business and Government at Harvard. He is also a returning guest to the podcast, and rejoins Macro Musings to talk about his new book, *Global Discord: Values and Power in a Fractured World.* Specifically, David and Paul also discuss China's push for reserve currency status, how to sell international legitimacy to the general public, the geopolitical advantage of trade deals, and much more.

Transcript for the episode can be found here.

Paul's Harvard profile

Paul's website

David's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth

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*Unelected Power: The Quest for Legitimacy in Central Banking and the Regulatory State* by Paul Tucker

*Quantitative Easing, Monetary Policy Implementation, and the Public Finances* by Paul Tucker

*Biden Needs Allies to Keep China and Russia in Check. Here's How to Do it.* by Sebastian Mallaby

Victoria Guida on Developments at the Federal Reserve and in Financial Regulation Jan 09, 2023

Show notes

Victoria Guida is an economics reporter for Politico where she covers monetary policy and financial regulatory policy. Victoria is also a returning guest to Macro Musings, and she rejoins the podcast to talk about the big developments at the Fed and in the financial regulatory policy space in 2022 and what we can expect in 2023. Specifically, David and Victoria discuss personnel changes and trading scandals at the Fed, the debate surrounding Fed Master Accounts, how to improve the liquidity of the Treasury market, and a lot more.

Transcript for the episode can be found here.

Victoria's Politico profile

Victoria's Twitter: @vtg2

David's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth

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Related Links:

*Victoria Guida on the Politics of Monetary Policy* by the Macro Musings podcast

Martin Chorzempa on China's Cashless Revolution and the Rise of Super Apps Jan 02, 2023

Show notes

Martin Chorzempa is a senior fellow with the Peterson Institute for International Economics and is the author of a new book titled, *The Cashless Revolution: China's Reinvention of Money and the End of America's Domination of Finance and Technology.* Martin joins Macro Musings to talk about this book as well as the history of Chinese fintech development, the basics of super apps in China, challenges to the Chinese fintech revolution, and more.

Transcript for the episode can be found here.

Martin's PIIE profile

Martin's Twitter: @ChorzempaMartin

David's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth

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*Letter From Apple Supplier Foxconn's Founder Prodded China to Ease Zero-Covid Rules* by Keith Zhai and Yang Jie

Heather Long, Ryan Avent, and Cardiff Garcia on Pandemic Reflections and Economic Predictions for the Future Dec 26, 2022

Show notes

For this special end of the year edition of Macro Musings, Heather Long, Ryan Avent, and Cardiff Garcia rejoin the podcast to reflect on the biggest economic surprises and stories of the past few years, while giving their outlook and predictions for the future. Heather Long is an editorial writer and columnist for the Washington Post, Ryan Avent is the trade and international economic editor for the Economist Magazine, and Cardiff Garcia is a veteran journalist for the Financial Times and NPR as well as the host of the New Bazaar podcast and the co-founder of Bazaar Audio. Specifically, this returning panel of guests discuss the major economic themes throughout the pandemic, the most overrated and underreported stories that have dominated the headlines over the past few years, what issues are primed for prominence within the next decade, and a lot more.

Transcript for the episode can be found here.

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Heather's Washington Post profile

Heather's Twitter: @byHeatherLong

Ryan's Economist profile

Ryan's Twitter: @ryanavent

Cardiff's Twitter: @CardiffGarcia

Bazaar Audio's website

David's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth

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Related Links:

*Measuring Monetary Policy: the NGDP Gap* by David Beckworth

*Danger Zone: The Coming Conflict with China* by Hal Brands and Michael Beckley

*David Beckworth on the Facts, Fears, and Functionality of NGDP Level Targeting* by the Macro Musings Podcast

*Ryan Avent, Cardiff Garcia, and Heather Long on Lessons from the Great Recession* by the Macro Musings Podcast

Tomas Hirst on the State of ECB Policy and the Eurozone Economy Dec 19, 2022

Show notes

Tomas Hirst is a macro analyst in the Strategy and Allocation division at LMI and formerly worked at Credit Sights, an independent fixed income research company, where he led the European strategy team covering Euro and sterling credit markets. Prior to that, he also worked at Bloomberg and the World Economic Forum in Geneva. Tomas joins David on Macro Musings to talk about the Eurozone economy, the ECB, and the future of the Euro project. Specifically, David and Tomas discuss the macroeconomic state of post-pandemic Europe, the rationale behind the ECB's rate hikes, the inflation expectations conundrum within the Eurozone, and more.

Transcript for the episode can be found here.

Support the podcast by making a donation during this holiday season!

Tomas's blog

Tomas's Twitter: @tomashirstecon

David's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth

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Related Links:

*The ECB's New Inflation Target One Year On* by Ursel Baumann, Christophe Kamps, and Manfred Kremer