Macro Musings with David Beckworth

Latest Episodes:

Tim Lee on the Present and Future of AI and its Implications for Policy Jul 03, 2023

Show notes

Tim Lee is an independent journalist who formerly worked for the Washington Post, Vox, and Ars Technica, where he covered tech policy, blockchain issues, the future of transportation, and the economy. Tim currently produces the newsletter, Understanding AI, and is also a returning guest to Macro Musings. He rejoins the podcast to talk about AI, automation, and its implications for the macroeconomy and policy. Specifically, David and Tim also discuss the singularism vs physicalism debate, the possible threats posed by AI, how the regulatory landscape will be affected by AI, and a lot more.

Transcript for this week's episode.

Tim's Twitter: @binarybits

Tim's newsletter: Understanding AI

David Beckworth's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth

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*Congress Shouldn't Rush Into Regulating AI* by Tim Lee

*The Death of Self-Driving Cars is Greatly Exaggerated* by Tim Lee

*I Ordered Robot Takeout on Two Campuses with Wildly Different Results* by Tim Lee

*Why I'm Not Worried About AI Causing Mass Unemployment* by Tim Lee

*US Air Force Says it Did Not Run Simulation in Which AI Drone 'Killed its Operator'* by Tom Vanden Brook and Kim Hjelmgaard

*Power and Progress: Our Thousand-Year Struggle Over Technology and Prosperity* by Daron Acemoglu and Simon Johnson

Steven Kamin on the Global Influence of Fed Policy and the U.S. Dollar Jun 26, 2023

Show notes

Steven Kamin is a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute and previously was the director of the Division of International Finance at the Federal Reserve Board. Steve joins David on Macro Musings to talk about the US dollar and its implications for policy and the economy. Specifically, David and Steven discuss the effects of Fed policy on emerging markets, the factors that are driving a higher global equilibrium real interest rate, how to reconcile the domestic and international impacts of Fed policy, and more.

Transcript for this week's episode.

Steven's Twitter: @steven_kamin

Steven's AEI profile

David Beckworth's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth

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*How Do Rising US Interest Rates Affect Emerging and Developing Economies? It Depends* by Steven Kamin, Carlos Arteta, and Franz Ulrich

*Are Higher US Interest Rates Always Bad News for Emerging Markets?* by Steven Kamin, Jasper Hoek, and Emre Yoldas

Chris Hughes on the Legacy of Arthur Burns and its Implications for Macro Policy Today Jun 19, 2023

Show notes

Chris Hughes is a senior fellow at the Institute on Race, Power, and Political Economy at The New School, and he is also the co-founder of the Economic Security Project and a senior advisor at the Roosevelt Institute. Previously, he was also the publisher of The New Republic and is a co-founder of Facebook. Chris joins Macro Musings to talk about his work on Arthur Burns' tenure as Fed Chair and the lessons we can learn from it as applied to today's inflation experience. Specifically, David and Chris also discuss Arthur Burns' view of the economy and inflation, how his perspective on business psychology impacted these views, Burns' view of fiscal and industrial policy as a tool for combating inflation, and a lot more.

Transcript for this week's episode.

Chris's Twitter: @chrishughes

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*Digital Dollars: Critical Design Choices and Effects of a Central Bank Digital Currency* by Chris Hughes

Peter Stella on the Quasi-Fiscal Implications of Central Bank Crisis Intervention Jun 12, 2023

Show notes

Peter Stella is the former head of the IMF's Central Banking Division and has researched and written extensively on safe assets, collateral, and central bank operations. He now hosts the website, Central Banking Archaeology and continues to consult with the IMF on central bank balance sheet issues. Peter is also a returning guest to the podcast, and he rejoins Macro Musings to talk about the quasi-fiscal implications of central bank crisis intervention over the past few years. David and Peter also discuss the losses on the Fed's balance sheet, using market value versus the par value of debt, the Fed's debt management issues with mortgage backed securities, and more.

Transcript for this week's episode.

Peter's Twitter: @Stellar_Consult

Peter's website

David Beckworth's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth

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Related Links:

*Quasi-Fiscal Implications of Central Bank Crisis Interventions: Case Studies* by Peter Stella, John Hooley, and Claney Lattie

*Do Central Banks Need Capital?* by Peter Stella

*Exiting Well* by Peter Stella

Christina Skinner on Central Bank Digital Currency as New Public Money Jun 05, 2023

Show notes

Christina Skinner is a legal scholar at the Wharton Business School at the University of Pennsylvania and was formerly legal counsel to the Bank of England. Christina is also a returning guest to the podcast, and she rejoins Macro Musings to talk about central bank digital currency and its legal implications for the state, individuals, and the Fed itself. David and Christina also discuss recent developments in CBDC policy rhetoric, the privacy issues surrounding CBDC, the potential interest bearing nature of CBDC, and a lot more.

Transcript for this week's episode

Christina's Twitter: @CParaSkinner

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David Beckworth's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth

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Related Links:

*Central Bank Digital Currency as New Public Money* by Christina Parajon Skinner

*A New Coin of the Realm? Central Bank Digital Currency as New Public Money* by Christina Parajon Skinner

Gianluca Benigno on the Basics and Policy Functionality of R** and the Dollar's Imperial Circle May 29, 2023

Show notes

Gianluca Benigno is a professor of economics at the University of Lausanne and was formerly a senior staffer and economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, an economist at the Bank of England, and worked at the London School of Economics. Gianluca joins Macro Musings to talk about financial conditions in r**, his work on *The Dollar's Imperial Circle,* and more. David and Gianluca also discuss the importance of liquidity in a New Keynesian framework, the origins and purpose of the Global Supply Chain Pressure Index, the "Global Financial Resource Curse," and a lot more.

Transcript for this week's episode

Gianluca's Twitter: @BenignoGianluca

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David Beckworth's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth

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Related Links:

*The Dollar's Imperial Circle* by Gianluca Benigno, Ozge Akinci, Serra Pelin, and Jon Turek

*The Financial (In)Stability Real Interest Rate, R*** by Gianluca Benigno, Ozge Akinci, Marco Del Negro, and Albert Queralto

*Interest, Reserves, and Prices* by Gianluca Benigno and Pierpaolo Benigno

*The Financial Resource Curse* by Gianluca Benigno and Luca Fornaro

*The Global Financial Resource Curse* by Gianluca Benigno, Luca Fornaro and Martin Wolf

Dan McDowell on *Bucking the Buck: US Financial Sanctions and the International Backlash Against the Dollar* May 22, 2023

Show notes

Dan McDowell is an associate professor of political science at Syracuse University, and he is the author of a new book titled, *Bucking the Buck: US Financial Sanctions and the International Backlash Against the Dollar.* Dan joins Macro Musings to talk about this new book and the prospects for de-dollarization around the world. David and Dan also discuss the mechanics and effectiveness of financial sanctions, the renminbi as a rival to the dollar, Russia and Turkey as case studies, and more.

Transcript for this week's episode

Dan's Twitter: @daniel_mcdowell

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*What's Driving Dollar Doomsaying?* by Paul Krugman

*Renminbi's Share of Trade Finance Doubles Since Start of Ukraine War* by Hudson Lockett and Cheng Leng

Jeanna Smialek on *Limitless: The Federal Reserve Takes on a New Age of Crisis* May 15, 2023

Show notes

Jeanna Smialek is a reporter who covers the Federal Reserve and the economy for the New York Times, and is the author of a new book titled, *Limitless: The Federal Reserve Takes On a New Age of Crisis.* Jeanna is also a returning guest to Macro Musings and rejoins the podcast to talk about her book and its implications for the future of the Federal Reserve system. David and Jeanna also discuss the credit allocation vs. liquidity support debate, the Fed's definition of price stability, the Bank Term Funding Program, and a lot more.

Transcript for this week's episode

Jeanna's Twitter: @jeannasmialek

Jeanna's New York Times profile

David Beckworth's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth

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Nathan Tankus on the Future of MMT and How to Avoid U.S. Debt Default May 08, 2023

Show notes

Nathan Tankus is a popular writer for a newsletter titled, *Notes on the Crises* and is the research director of the Modern Money Network. Nathan is also a returning guest to Macro Musings, and he rejoins the podcast to talk about modern monetary theory and the debt ceiling. Specifically, David and Nathan discuss the future of MMT, the case for minting the trillion dollar coin, the prospects of issuing Federal Reserve securities, the history of the Fed's operating procedures, and a lot more.

Transcript for this week's episode

Nathan's Twitter: @NathanTankus

Nathan's Substack, Notes on the Crises

Nathan's Modern Money Network profile

David Beckworth's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth

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*Federal Reserve Issued Securities: Not Such A Crazy Idea After All* by Nathan Tankus

*The Federal Reserve's Monetary Policy Operating Procedures Have Come Full Circle: What Does That Mean for the Post-SVB FOMC Meeting?* by Nathan Tankus

*An MMT Response on What Causes Inflation* by Nathan Tankus, Rohan Grey, and Scott Fulwiler

*Issues Raised by the Credit Crunch and Global Recession* by Janet Yellen

Brian Sack on the Fed's Balance Sheet and How to Improve the Floor Operating System May 01, 2023

Show notes

Brian Sack was recently the Director of Global Economics at the D.E. Shaw Group, and prior to that, he was the manager of the System Open Market Account or SOMA and the head of the Markets Group at the New York Federal Reserve bank, where he managed the Fed's balance sheet. Brian joins Macro Musings to talk about the central bank's balance sheet, its operating system, and his work at the Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee. Specifically, David and Brian discuss the current state of the Fed's balance sheet, Brian's theory of QE, how to improve the effectiveness of the floor system, and a lot more.

Transcript for the episode can be found here.

Brian's LinkedIn profile

Brian's Google Scholar archive

David Beckworth's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth

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*Monetary Policy Alternatives at the Zero Lower Bound: An Empirical Assessment* by Ben Bernanke, Vincent Reinhart, and Brian Sack