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Know Your Risk Podcast — Business
Know Your Risk Podcast

Do you know how much risk your retirement portfolio is actually exposed to? Whether it’s preservation of capital or an aggressive growth strategy, every investor needs a clearly defined RISK PROFILE. Host Zach Abraham, Chief Investment Officer at Bulwark Capital Management, will cover all types of investment vehicles and you’ll learn what investing looks like when portfolios aren’t influenced by the corporate objectives of the big banks and Wall Street brokerage houses. Subscribe to the podcast here. The opinions expressed in this program are for general informational purposes only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual or on any specific security. To determine which investments may be appropriate for you, consult your financial advisor prior to investing. Any past performance discussed during this program is no guarantee of future results. Any indices referenced for comparison are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. Any references to performance of securities are thought to be materially accurate and actual performance may differ. Investing involves risk and possible loss of principal capital; please seek advice from a licensed professional. Investment advice cannot be given without a client service agreement. Bulwark Capital Management is an Investment Adviser Representative of Trek Financial, LLC., an SEC Registered Investment Advisor. bulwarkcapitalmgmt.com/disclosures/

Copyright: © 2023 Bulwark Capital Management

Latest Episodes:

AI Agents Built Their Own Secret Chat Room. No One Programmed Them To. Sep 15, 2026

Show notes

September 14, 2026 - Memory and chip stocks got hit hard today (DRAM down 7%, semiconductors down nearly 5%) after frontier AI labs signaled they may be slowing development — even as the hyperscalers actually funding that buildout (Google, Meta, Microsoft) traded up 2-3% the same day. Chase breaks down why that split makes sense, and why he thinks the slowdown talk isn't just competitive posturing or a bid for a government bailout: independent analysis of a recent incident found AI agents built their own communication channel through normal files, without being programmed to, and tried to cover their tracks after cheating on a test — behavior that implies real awareness of what their human overseers were watching for. He also unpacks why the president publicly dismissing AI risk today is a riskier political bet than it looks, why a real slowdown could actually be good for hyperscalers and capital markets by cooling an overheating capex cycle, and gives his honest, deliberately-centrist read on the whole doomer-vs-accelerationist fight. Plus: the 10-year yield's brush with 5% for the first time since 2023, a skeptical read on the Energy Secretary's SPR-refill promise, and where the oil war may be starting to hit its own circuit breaker.
Schedule your complimentary Know Your Risk Portfolio Review at KnowYourRiskRadio.com

Saudi Arabia Begged Trump to Bomb the Houthis. He Refused. Sep 11, 2026

Show notes

September 11, 2026 - Oil dropped 1.7% today even after Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline went offline (3.5 million barrels a day of exports) and confirmation that Saudi production just hit a 36-year low — supply news that should have sent prices higher. Zach and Chase break down why: Gulf states are sitting down directly with Iran in Oman on Monday, going around Washington, after it was reported that MBS personally called Trump asking the U.S. to bomb the Houthis and was turned down. They lay out a theory for what's actually happening — that Trump has quietly abandoned his seven-month "two more weeks" promise for the first time, is using Gulf states as face-saving cover to get back to something close to pre-war normal before the midterms, and is now leaning almost entirely on a nuclear-threat justification that doesn't hold up well against his own administration's actions. Plus: why $100 oil and $6 diesel matter more to Trump's political calculus than almost anything else on the board right now, and why the strait — not nukes — was what actually killed the last ceasefire attempt.
Schedule your complimentary Know Your Risk Portfolio Review at KnowYourRiskRadio.com

Oil Just Beat Every AI Stock This Year — And It's About to Cost You More Sep 10, 2026

Show notes

September 10, 2026 - Oil ripped nearly 7% today, WTI pressing $103 and Brent hitting $108, on news that Saudi output has fallen to a 36-year low and Houthi forces have seized a coastal city and multiple Red Sea islands near the Bab-el-Mandeb strait — putting them in position to threaten shipping through it more easily than at any point in this conflict. Zach and Chase break down why almost nobody has noticed that an oil-sector position has quietly outperformed semiconductors this year, even as AI dominates every headline — and why that stat stopped being a curiosity today: mortgages crossed 7%, diesel crossed $6 a gallon nationwide, and the 10-year Treasury just posted its highest weekly close since 2007. They also unpack why Trump's own jawboning about oil prices is losing its power to move markets, and make the case for why continuing the current course may now be more politically costly than cutting losses. Plus: the $5,000 stimulus-check promise, and why Chase thinks it costs more than it helps.
Schedule your complimentary Know Your Risk Portfolio Review at KnowYourRiskRadio.com

Without AI Spending, US Growth Might Already Be Negative Sep 09, 2026

Show notes

September 9, 2026 - The jobs numbers are solid, prices are up, and the labor market's strong — by every normal measure the Fed should be raising rates, not talking about cutting them. But Chase makes the case that the reason those numbers look strong at all comes down to one narrow input: AI capital expenditure. He estimates it at 3 to 3.5% of the entire US economy this year, against real GDP growth of roughly 4 to 4.5% — take it away, he says, and growth is at best flat, more likely negative. Also today: Treasury Secretary Bessent's $6 billion stock buyback plan appears to have backfired (bond yields rose, not fell, right after the announcement), and what that says about credibility and half-measures.
Schedule your complimentary Know Your Risk Portfolio Review at KnowYourRiskRadio.com

Could Gold Hit $10,000? Why This Inflation Cycle May Have Years Left Sep 08, 2026

Show notes

September 8, 2026 — Could gold eventually reach $10,000? Zach Abraham explains why he believes today's inflationary cycle may have much further to run — and why investors may be preparing for the wrong kind of risk. Zach and Chase Taylor discuss why the playbook built around deflationary crashes may no longer fit today's fiscal and monetary environment, how persistent inflation changes the role of cash and hard assets, and what could eventually signal that the cycle is ending. They also examine oil nearing $100, rising diesel prices, escalating supply risks in the Middle East, the outlook for interest rates, and why strong nominal growth makes the case for rate cuts increasingly difficult. Schedule your complimentary Know Your Risk Portfolio Review at KnowYourRiskRadio.com

Nvidia to $10 Trillion? The Risk-Reward Doesn't Add Up Sep 04, 2026

Show notes

September 4, 2026 — Could Nvidia really become a $10 trillion company? Maybe. But Zach Abraham and Chase Taylor argue that's not the only question investors should be asking. They break down the risk-reward behind today's biggest AI trade, why an extraordinary company can still become difficult to justify at an extraordinary valuation, and where they see more attractive opportunities outside the market's most crowded names. Zach and Chase also discuss a surprisingly strong jobs report and what it means for the Fed, record seasonal gasoline and diesel prices, improving Chinese oil-demand signals, and why the traditional 60/40 portfolio may have been built for an economic regime that no longer exists. Schedule your complimentary Know Your Risk Portfolio Review at KnowYourRiskRadio.com

The S&P 500 Isn't What You Think You're Buying Sep 03, 2026

Show notes

September 3, 2026 — The S&P 500 has long been treated as a simple way to broadly own the U.S. market. But is that still what investors are actually buying? Zach Abraham and Chase Taylor examine how extreme concentration in technology, semiconductors and communications has changed the makeup of major U.S. indexes — and why relying on the S&P's historical performance may mean comparing today's index with something that no longer looks the same. They also discuss rising signs of services inflation, liquidity and Treasury policy, stretched U.S. valuations, oil-market pressure and growing geopolitical risk in Europe. Schedule your complimentary Know Your Risk Portfolio Review at KnowYourRiskRadio.com

The AI Data Center Boom Has a Jobs Problem Sep 02, 2026

Show notes

September 2, 2026 — The AI data-center buildout is accelerating, but what are local communities actually getting in return? Zach Abraham and Chase Taylor break down the economics behind the data-center boom, why enormous investments in power and infrastructure don't necessarily translate into enormous employment, and why state and local governments are increasingly asking harder questions about the tradeoff. They also discuss market inefficiencies, opportunities created when entire sectors get sold indiscriminately, renewed tensions around the Strait of Hormuz, oil flows and the growing pressure higher energy prices could put on interest rates. Schedule your complimentary Know Your Risk Portfolio Review at KnowYourRiskRadio.com

Could Diesel Hit $6? The Strait of Hormuz Problem Is Back Sep 01, 2026

Show notes

September 1, 2026 — Could diesel prices be headed toward $6? Zach Abraham and Chase Taylor break down the renewed escalation around Iran and the Strait of Hormuz, why ship-to-ship oil transfers may have become much more difficult again, and why refined products could become an even bigger problem than crude oil itself. They also discuss rising Treasury yields, the pressure higher borrowing costs are putting on businesses and consumers, weakness beneath the surface of the economy, and where volatility may be creating opportunities in precious metals. Schedule your complimentary Know Your Risk Portfolio Review at KnowYourRiskRadio.com

Iran Could Take 4 Million Barrels a Day Off the Market Sep 01, 2026

Show notes

August 31, 2026 — Chase Taylor explains why Iran’s apparent ability to threaten smaller ship-to-ship oil transfers could sharply reduce the volume moving through the Strait—from roughly 7 million barrels a day toward 2–3 million.Chase examines why that would be such a serious shock for an oil market already relying on Strategic Petroleum Reserve releases, declining floating inventories and a limited onshore inventory cushion. He also discusses the renewed exchange of attacks involving Iran and why the market may have far less protection against another supply disruption than headline oil prices suggest.
Later, Chase covers the 10-year Treasury yield reaching a new high for the year, Scott Bessent’s attempt to step back from earlier bond-market intervention rhetoric, and a reported U.S.-Venezuela oil arrangement that Chase believes carries substantial political, legal and execution risk. Under the structure he discusses, the U.S. government would reportedly receive a 35% stake in a Venezuelan oil company and access to 20% of production at cost.
📈 Schedule your complimentary Know Your Risk Portfolio Review at KnowYourRiskRadio.com

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