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Know Your Risk Podcast — Business
Know Your Risk Podcast

Do you know how much risk your retirement portfolio is actually exposed to? Whether it’s preservation of capital or an aggressive growth strategy, every investor needs a clearly defined RISK PROFILE. Host Zach Abraham, Chief Investment Officer at Bulwark Capital Management, will cover all types of investment vehicles and you’ll learn what investing looks like when portfolios aren’t influenced by the corporate objectives of the big banks and Wall Street brokerage houses. Subscribe to the podcast here. The opinions expressed in this program are for general informational purposes only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual or on any specific security. To determine which investments may be appropriate for you, consult your financial advisor prior to investing. Any past performance discussed during this program is no guarantee of future results. Any indices referenced for comparison are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. Any references to performance of securities are thought to be materially accurate and actual performance may differ. Investing involves risk and possible loss of principal capital; please seek advice from a licensed professional. Investment advice cannot be given without a client service agreement. Bulwark Capital Management is an Investment Adviser Representative of Trek Financial, LLC., an SEC Registered Investment Advisor. bulwarkcapitalmgmt.com/disclosures/

Copyright: © 2023 Bulwark Capital Management

Latest Episodes:

Higher Rates Are Already Doing Damage. Stocks Haven’t Reacted Yet Sep 29, 2026

Show notes

September 29, 2026 — Interest rates have moved sharply higher, but the stock market still appears remarkably calm. Zach Abraham argues that underneath the headline indexes, the damage from higher borrowing costs is already showing up.
Zach breaks down why higher rates matter far beyond the bond market — from housing and commercial real estate to refinancing costs, private equity, private credit and corporate cash flows. His concern isn’t that every one of those areas is about to collapse. It’s that higher financing costs mechanically reduce asset values and put pressure on businesses even when the stock market doesn’t immediately reflect it.
He also discusses weak market breadth, volatility, precious metals, energy and why he believes today’s markets may be taking much longer than usual to incorporate major changes in the macro environment.
FREE LIVE WEBINAR — THE GAME PLAN
Join Zach Abraham live October 1 at 3:30 PM Pacific for The Game Plan — a free webinar on inflation, interest rates, energy, AI spending and the market risks investors should be watching next.
Register free at KnowYourRiskPodcast.com
Schedule your complimentary Know Your Risk Portfolio Review at KnowYourRiskRadio.com

Why the AI Winners May Not Be Big Tech Sep 28, 2026

Show notes

September 28, 2026 — Big Tech is pouring extraordinary amounts of capital into artificial intelligence. But does spending the most money mean capturing the most value?Zach Abraham looks at the AI boom through a different lens after a conversation with the founder of a fast-growing AI startup. Zach argues that smaller, more focused companies may have advantages the hyperscalers don't: greater agility, clearer economics, products built directly around consumer needs, and dramatically less capital required to reach profitability.The founder shared private growth projections with Zach that he uses as one data point — not proof — in his broader argument that the eventual winners in AI may look very different from the companies currently spending the most money. Zach explicitly describes the startup example as only one piece of evidence and says his view could change as new information emerges.Zach also breaks down the continued surge in Treasury yields, weakness in gold and precious metals, the dollar, oil markets, and the latest developments surrounding the Strait.
FREE LIVE WEBINAR — THE GAME PLAN
Join Zach Abraham live October 1 at 3:30 PM Pacific for The Game Plan — a free webinar on the market risks shaping the rest of 2026, including inflation, energy, interest rates, AI spending, and what investors should be watching next.
Register free at KnowYourRiskPodcast.com
Schedule your complimentary Know Your Risk Portfolio Review at KnowYourRiskRadio.com

Stocks Stayed Flat as Bond Yields Exploded. Something Doesn't Add Up Sep 24, 2026

Show notes

September 24, 2026 — Stocks finished roughly flat even as Treasury yields surged, oil climbed and the dollar strengthened. Zach Abraham breaks down one of the strangest market sessions he's seen lately — and explains why he puts more weight on the bond market when stocks and bonds start telling completely different stories. Zach examines why equity markets appeared willing to look through worsening macro conditions, what today's moves may say about expectations surrounding the Middle East, and why weak market breadth continues to concern him even when the headline indexes look resilient. He also discusses Meta's continued strength, why he's putting much of Big Tech in the “too hard” pile, opportunities he's finding in energy and precious metals, and a speculative setup developing in natural gas.
FREE LIVE WEBINAR — THE GAME PLAN
Join Zach Abraham live October 1 at 3:30 PM Pacific for The Game Plan — a free webinar on the market risks shaping the rest of 2026, including inflation, energy, interest rates, AI spending and what investors should be watching next.
Register free at KnowYourRiskPodcast.com
Schedule your complimentary Know Your Risk Portfolio Review at KnowYourRiskRadio.com

The Market Took a Week to React to the Fed Sep 23, 2026

Show notes

September 23, 2026 — The Federal Reserve raised rates last week, but some of the biggest market reactions may only now be showing up. The 10-year Treasury yield surged above 5.1% today to its highest level since 2007 as stocks moved lower. Zach Abraham explains why he believes markets have become slower and stranger at digesting major Fed decisions — often producing an initial reaction, settling down, and then making the more consequential move days later. He breaks down the jump in Treasury yields, the strengthening dollar, what those moves could mean for equities, and why he thinks investors should be cautious about trusting the first market reaction to major policy news. Zach also discusses oil-market volatility, the debate around a potential U.S. export restriction, international markets, precious metals, and the possibility that increasingly extreme monetary-policy ideas become part of the conversation if financial stress rises.
FREE LIVE WEBINAR — THE GAME PLAN
Join Zach Abraham live October 1 at 3:30 PM Pacific for The Game Plan — a free webinar on the market risks shaping the rest of 2026, including inflation, energy, interest rates, AI spending, and what investors should be watching next.
Register free at KnowYourRiskPodcast.com
Schedule your complimentary Know Your Risk Portfolio Review at KnowYourRiskRadio.com

AI Is Turning Big Tech Into a Commodity Business Sep 22, 2026

Show notes

September 22, 2026 — Big Tech built some of the most profitable businesses in history on network effects, enormous margins and powerful competitive moats. Zach Abraham argues the AI arms race may be changing that economic model. As Meta, Google, Amazon, Microsoft and others pour extraordinary amounts of capital into AI, they're increasingly competing directly with one another for the same customers, compute and products. Zach explains why that could mean more spending, less pricing power and a business model that begins to look surprisingly similar to a commodity producer. He also discusses today's market action, international valuations, the latest moves in oil and the dollar, Bitcoin's improving technical setup, and why today's markets continue to reward looking beyond the headline indexes.
FREE LIVE WEBINAR — THE GAME PLAN
Join Zach Abraham live October 1 at 3:30 PM Pacific for The Game Plan — a free webinar on the market risks shaping the rest of 2026, including inflation, energy, interest rates, AI spending, and what investors should be watching next.
Register free at KnowYourRiskPodcast.com
Schedule your complimentary Know Your Risk Portfolio Review at KnowYourRiskRadio.com'

Nasdaq Hits a Record High—But More Stocks Are Hitting New Lows Sep 21, 2026

Show notes

September 21, 2026 — The Nasdaq closed at a record high today, helped by a huge rally in Meta. But underneath the headline index, something much less bullish was happening: more Nasdaq stocks were hitting 52-week lows than 52-week highs. Meta finished up roughly 11%, while the Nasdaq gained about 2.3% to a record close. Zach Abraham breaks down what that divergence says about market breadth, concentration, and the extraordinary influence of a small group of mega-cap technology companies. He also explains why the warning deserves attention without automatically treating it as proof that a crash is coming. Zach also discusses the latest moves in oil, interest rates, international markets, and why the current environment continues to make simple market narratives unusually difficult to trust.
FREE LIVE WEBINAR — THE GAME PLAN
Join Zach Abraham live October 1 at 3:30 PM Pacific for The Game Plan — a free webinar on the market risks shaping the rest of 2026, including inflation, energy, interest rates, AI spending, and what investors should be watching next.
Register free at KnowYourRiskPodcast.com
Schedule your complimentary Know Your Risk Portfolio Review at KnowYourRiskRadio.com

Why a Middle-Class Life Costs So Much More Now Sep 18, 2026

Show notes

September 18, 2026 — A normal middle-class life has become dramatically more expensive. Zach Abraham looks beyond the latest inflation print and asks a bigger question: what happened to the relationship between wages and the cost of housing, education, everyday life, and asset ownership? Zach argues that the affordability problem is much deeper than one bad year of inflation. He connects stagnant wages, housing affordability, asset-price inflation, wealth concentration, and the policy decisions that shaped the post-financial-crisis economy. The result, in his view, is an economy where rising costs hit people without assets hardest while those who already own assets have far more ability to absorb the shock. He also breaks down the latest market action, interest rates, oil, and why investors may be making things more complicated than they need to be.
FREE LIVE WEBINAR — THE GAME PLAN
Join Zach Abraham live October 1 at 3:30 PM Pacific for The Game Plan — a free webinar on the market risks shaping the rest of 2026, including inflation, energy, interest rates, AI spending, and what investors should be watching next. Register free at KnowYourRiskPodcast.com
Schedule your complimentary Know Your Risk Portfolio Review at KnowYourRiskRadio.com

Oil Is Falling While the War Continues. What Is the Market Pricing In? Sep 17, 2026

Show notes

September 17, 2026 — Oil prices are pulling back even as geopolitical uncertainty remains elevated. Zach Abraham explains why the market’s surprisingly calm reaction may be sending an important signal about what investors expect next. Zach breaks down the latest moves in oil and interest rates, why crude may be looking through the headlines toward some kind of resolution, and why the downside could become just as violent as the upside if the geopolitical picture changes quickly. He also discusses the Federal Reserve’s latest rate hike, why he remains skeptical that long-term yields have peaked, and where he sees the more attractive risk-reward if rates and the dollar eventually reverse.
FREE LIVE WEBINAR — THE GAME PLAN
Join Zach Abraham live October 1 at 3:30 PM Pacific for The Game Plan — a free webinar on the market risks shaping the rest of 2026, including inflation, energy, interest rates, AI spending, and what investors should be watching next. Register free at KnowYourRiskPodcast.com
Schedule your complimentary Know Your Risk Portfolio Review at KnowYourRiskRadio.com

The Fed Just Hiked. The Refinancing Pain Is Just Starting Sep 16, 2026

Show notes

September 16, 2026 — The Federal Reserve raised rates again today. But Zach Abraham and Chase Taylor argue the bigger story may be the borrowing costs businesses still haven’t had to refinance into yet. They examine the coming refinancing cycle, why loans written in the cheap-money era may reset at dramatically higher rates, and where that pressure could begin showing up in construction, housing, small businesses and corporate credit. Zach and Chase also break down the Fed’s new economic projections, the outlook for additional rate hikes, why the historical small-cap playbook may be changing, and the latest developments in global oil flows.
FREE LIVE WEBINAR — THE GAME PLAN
Join Zach Abraham live October 1 at 3:30 PM Pacific for The Game Plan — a free webinar on the market risks shaping the rest of 2026, including inflation, energy, interest rates, AI spending, and what investors should be watching next. Register free at KnowYourRiskPodcast.com
Schedule your complimentary Know Your Risk Portfolio Review at KnowYourRiskRadio.com

The 10-Year Just Hit 5%. What Breaks First? Sep 15, 2026

Show notes

September 15, 2026 — The 10-year Treasury is back around 5%, borrowing costs are at levels not seen in nearly two decades, and Zach Abraham and Chase Taylor are asking the question that usually follows: what breaks first? They examine where higher rates are already creating stress — from housing and commercial real estate to indebted small caps and AI infrastructure companies — and why a higher cost of capital may expose weaknesses that were much easier to hide when money was cheap. Zach and Chase also discuss rapidly tightening oil markets, rising diesel prices, geopolitical supply disruptions and the increasingly difficult choice facing the Federal Reserve as inflation remains elevated.
Schedule your complimentary Know Your Risk Portfolio Review at KnowYourRiskRadio.com

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