Grain Markets and Other Stuff

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USDA "Balance Sheet Fudgery?" - Are the World Corn Numbers Being Manipulated? Feb 12, 2025

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0:00 US Corn and Soybean Numbers
3:01 Global Corn Numbers in Question?
7:01 Argentina Rains
8:31 Mexico Tariff Talk
9:27 The Fed
USDA Keeps Corn and Soybean Estimates Unchanged 🌽
USDA left its corn and soybean balance sheets unchanged on Tuesday, causing the markets to dip. Many traders were hoping for increased demand projections for corn. Minor adjustments were made to the wheat balance sheet, with a 4 million bushel increase in demand. 📉
USDA Lowers Argentina's Corn & Soybean Crop Estimates 🌾
USDA has reduced its estimates for Argentina's corn and soybean crops due to hot and dry weather conditions. The corn crop is now projected at 50mmt, and soybeans at 49mmt. Recent rainfall helped but wasn't enough to fully recover the damage. 🌧️
Rain Brings Relief to Argentina's Crops 🌦️
Rainfall in Argentina this week has provided crucial moisture for the corn and soybean crops, which were struggling in the heat. With temperatures hitting around 104°F on Monday, the rain was a welcome relief, though more is needed for long-term recovery. ☔
Mexico Criticizes US Tariffs on Steel & Aluminum ⚖️
Mexico is set to discuss President Trump's 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum imports with the U.S. The tariffs are slated to take effect on March 12. Mexico imports more steel and aluminum from the U.S. than it exports, making these tariffs potentially harmful to both economies. 🇲🇽🔨
Federal Reserve Holds Off on Interest Rate Cuts 💵
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell stated that the economy is stable and inflation still needs to cool, so there’s no rush to cut interest rates. The trade expects only two rate cuts this year, with inflation well above the Fed's 2% target. 📉

USDA Will Probably Confirm Friendly Corn Situation, Bearish Soybean Situation Feb 11, 2025

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USDA Report Due Today 📊
USDA's monthly Crop Production and WASDE report will be released today at 11am CST, with slight reductions expected in US corn and soybean ending stocks. Global estimates for corn and soybeans, as well as Brazil and Argentina crop forecasts, are also anticipated to be adjusted. This is the old crop report; the first official 25/26 balance sheets will come in May. 🌾📉
Brazil’s Soybean Harvest Lags 🌱
Brazil's soybean harvest is behind last year’s pace, with only 15% of the crop harvested compared to 23% last year. The delay could affect the planting of Brazil’s second corn crop, with planting in the south-central region at only 20%. 🚜
Brazil’s Inflation Hits 6% 📈
Brazil’s inflation forecast for the coming year has been revised up to nearly 6%, marking the 18th consecutive upward revision. High inflation is linked to elevated government spending and low unemployment. Analysts predict interest rates may reach 15.25% by June. 💸
Russia Cuts Wheat Forecast 🥖
Russian consulting group IKAR lowered its wheat production and export estimates due to freezing temperatures. Wheat exports are projected at 43mmt, down from a previous forecast of 43.5mmt. The decline reflects adverse weather and low stock levels. 🌾❄️
Trump’s Tariffs on Steel & Aluminum ⚒️
President Trump imposed 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum imports, affecting all U.S. trading partners. These tariffs will impact various sectors, including automobiles and construction. Trump cites trade deficits and revenue generation as reasons for the move. 🇺🇸🔨
USDA Flash Sale of Corn 🌽
US exporters sold 365,000mt (14mil bushels) of corn to Mexico for delivery during the 2024/2025 marketing year. This brings accumulated corn sales up by 28% compared to last year. 🌽🇲🇽
Record Number of H-2A Visas for South African Workers 🌍
The U.S. issued a record number of H-2A visas to South African farm workers last year, with 15,159 permits granted. This marks a 19% increase from the previous year. Mexico remains the top recipient of these visas. 🛂
Strong US Corn Shipments 🚢
US corn exports were strong last week, with 1.3mmt (53mil bushels) inspected for export, up 49% from the previous year. Wheat shipments exceeded expectations, rising by 112%. However, soybean shipments were down 22% from the same week last year. 📦

Farm Income UP, Crop Receipts DOWN (Government Assistance to the Rescue) Feb 10, 2025

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US Farmer Income Soars With Government Aid 🌾💰
US net farm income is projected to rise by 30% this year, reaching $180.1 billion. This increase is largely driven by government disaster payments, which will contribute over 80% of the growth. While total crop receipts are expected to decline by 2.3%, the overall farm income is still higher than the 20-year average. However, it remains 8.9% lower than the record earnings of 2022. 📉
Trump Announces 25% Tariffs on Steel & Aluminum 🛠️📈
President Trump declared a 25% tariff on all imports of steel and aluminum, with reciprocal tariffs set to take effect this week. This follows recent announcements of a temporary suspension of universal tariffs on Canada and Mexico. The steel and aluminum tariffs target major suppliers like Canada, China, and Mexico. 💥
USDA Freezes Funding for Conservation Programs 🌱💵
The USDA has paused funding for agricultural conservation programs as part of the Trump administration's review of federal spending. Although farmer aid is supposed to remain unaffected, this freeze impacts conservation initiatives tied to the Inflation Reduction Act. Legal challenges are ongoing regarding the funding freeze. ⚖️
Rain Brings Relief to Argentina’s Soybean Crop 🌧️🌱
Rainfall across Argentina last week offered much-needed relief to the soybean crop. The Rosario grains exchange lowered the percentage of early-planted soybeans in poor condition from 50% to 30%. However, some areas in northeastern Argentina still need rain. 🌍
Funds Boost Corn Position 🌽📈
Large money managers increased their net-long position in corn futures last week. The net long of 362k contracts is the highest since April 2022, indicating strong bullish sentiment in the corn market. The funds were also net buyers of SRW wheat. 🌾
USDA Crop Production & WASDE Report Coming Soon 📊🌾
The USDA will release its monthly Crop Production and WASDE reports on Tuesday, with traders expecting small revisions to US corn and soybean ending stocks, as well as global crop estimates. The official 2025/2026 balance sheets will be released later in May. 🗓️
Trump Discusses Peace Talks with Putin 🇷🇺🤝🇺🇸
President Trump and Vladimir Putin have discussed ending the war between Russia and Ukraine. Trump claims Putin is interested in stopping the conflict, and a meeting with Ukrainian President Zelenskiy is expected to occur soon to discuss efforts for peace. 🕊️

Wheat Rallies to Multi-Month Highs on Crop Damage Concerns Feb 07, 2025

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Wheat Futures Surge Amid Cold Weather Concerns 🌾❄️
All three classes of US wheat futures hit multi-month highs overnight, driven by concerns over potential crop damage from cold weather in the Black Sea region. The rise was also fueled by short covering by funds. Corn and soybean futures saw gains as well, supported by President Trump’s temporary suspension of tariffs on Canada and Mexico. China’s mild counter-tariffs, excluding crops, also provided market support. 🌍
Greer Defends Trump's Trade Policies 💼📉
Trump's nominee for US trade representative, Jamieson Greer, defended the administration’s tariff policies during his confirmation hearing. Greer emphasized the need to reform international trade and expand markets for US farmers, while assessing whether trade agreements with China, Mexico, and Canada were upheld. Some senators expressed concerns about tariffs potentially raising costs for farmers. ⚖️
Mexico Eases GMO Corn Import Restrictions 🌽🇲🇽
Mexico has lifted its restrictions on genetically modified (GMO) corn imports, now limiting restrictions only to human consumption. This move follows a ruling by a USMCA panel that determined that the prior restrictions violated the trade agreement. The decision alleviates concerns among US farmers, as Mexico has been a major importer of US GMO corn for livestock feed and industrial use. 🌱
Strong US Corn Export Sales 🌽📦
US corn export sales remained robust last week, totaling 1.5 million metric tons (58 million bushels). This was a 9% increase from the previous week and a 32% rise compared to the prior 4-week average. Mexico was the largest buyer. In contrast, soybean sales were weaker, falling by 12% from the previous week, with China being the largest buyer. 🌍
US Drought Conditions Update 🌾🌧️
USDA’s weekly drought monitor showed scattered rainfall across the Corn Belt, leading to slight improvements in drought conditions in western Missouri, eastern Iowa, and northwest Illinois. However, drought conditions worsened in northwest Indiana, and minimal precipitation was recorded in the High Plains. The drought remains widespread in areas like corn and soybean production. 🌾

Argentina Rains + China Files WTO Complaint Against the US Feb 06, 2025

Show notes

0:00 Argentina Rainfall
2:00 China WTO Complaint
3:06 China Wheat Situation
6:15 End to Russia/Ukraine War?
7:41 US Dollar and Brazil Currency
9:11 Bunge Profits Drop
9:59 Ethanol Production
10:54 Corn Flash to Mexico
Rainfall Brings Relief to Argentina's Soybean Crop 🌧️🌱
Argentina’s key farming areas received beneficial rainfall this week, especially helping the soybean crop that had been struggling with hot, dry conditions. Some areas saw more than 3 inches of rain. Continued rainfall will be needed to prevent further crop losses. 🌾
China Files WTO Complaint Against US Tariffs ⚖️🇨🇳
China has filed a complaint with the WTO over Trump's new 10% tariffs, claiming they are based on unfounded allegations. This move follows China's retaliation with its own tariffs on US imports, including energy products and agricultural equipment. 🛢️⚙️
China Delays Wheat Imports Due to Ample Domestic Supply 🌾🇨🇳
China has postponed imports of 600,000mt of wheat due to an abundant domestic supply from last year’s bumper crop. As domestic wheat prices have dropped, China has redirected imports, potentially adding pressure to the already struggling wheat market. ⏳
Trump Administration to Reveal Ukraine Peace Plan 🕊️🇺🇦
The Trump administration is expected to unveil a plan to end the war in Ukraine next week. The plan proposes security guarantees for Ukraine and access to its rare earth minerals in exchange for US support. Long-term, Ukraine hopes for NATO membership. 🤝
US Dollar Declines Amid Trade War Uncertainty 💵
The US dollar fell 0.4% yesterday as concerns about a trade war subsided. The shift came after Trump's tariff delay on Canada and Mexico and weaker-than-expected US job data, which increased speculation about potential interest rate cuts. 📉
Bunge's Profits Expected to Decline 📉
Bunge anticipates a profit drop to the lowest level since 2019 due to tariff concerns, abundant soybean supplies, and uncertainty over renewable diesel tax credits. The news caused a nearly 7% drop in the company’s shares, but its acquisition of Viterra could help mitigate trade disruptions. 📊
US Ethanol Production Surges 🚗🌾
US ethanol production reached 1.1 million barrels per day last week, up 9.6% from the previous week and 12% year-over-year. Ethanol stocks also rose, and gasoline demand was up slightly compared to last year. ⛽
Flash Sale of Corn to Mexico 🌽🇲🇽
US exporters sold 330,000mt of corn to Mexico for the 2025/2026 marketing year, shortly after Mexico agreed to a temporary suspension of tariffs with President Trump. 🌽

US/China Trade Deal Phase TWO?? Could You Imagine?? Feb 05, 2025

Show notes

0:00 19k Subs!
0:44 Another US/China Trade Deal?
3:38 Argentina Crop Problems
5:12 Wheat Exports and Russia
8:37 Farmer Sentiment Improves
9:45 More ADM Problems
10:46 Stock Market Bounces
11:51 Corn Flash
China May Revive Phase One Trade Deal with Trump 🇨🇳🤝🇺🇸
China could be looking to renegotiate the Phase One trade deal from 2020, which aimed to increase purchases of US agricultural products like corn and soybeans. Trump’s recent 10% tariff on Chinese imports has sparked speculation about a new deal, encouraging buying in the markets. China is expected to fulfill its commitment to increase US agricultural purchases if an agreement is reached. 🌽
Argentina’s Crop Outlook Turns Bleaker 🌾☀️
Drought conditions in Argentina have caused concerns about corn and soybean crop yields. Forecasts have been reduced, with yields potentially falling to 40mmt if dry weather persists. Farmers remain hopeful for rain in the coming weeks, but the extent and timing are uncertain. 🌧️
Sovecon Raises Russia’s Wheat Export Outlook 🌾🇷🇺
Sovecon has increased its forecast for Russia's wheat exports to 38.3mmt, a 5.2% rise from its previous estimate. Despite a mixed outlook on crop conditions, Russia's winter grains are performing better than expected after tough weather last year. ❄️
US Farmer Sentiment Improves Despite Trade Concerns 🚜📈
US farmer sentiment improved in January, with the Purdue/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer Index rising to 141. While concerns about trade wars remain, 42% of farmers believe trade policy will be crucial to their operations over the next five years. 🌱
ADM Plans to Cut Costs After Profit Decline 💼📉
Agricultural giant ADM is planning to cut costs by $750 million over the next three to five years, including job cuts and selling off underperforming sectors. This comes after a poor fourth-quarter profit and a financial scandal. 💔
Stock Market Recovers After Tariff Suspension 📈💵
The stock market bounced back, with the Dow Jones up 0.3%, the S&P 500 increasing 0.7%, and the Nasdaq rising 1.4%. The market was buoyed by Trump’s suspension of tariffs on Canada and Mexico, along with a strong performance from Palantir. 📊
USDA Reports Flash Sale of Corn 🌽🚢
US exporters sold 132,000mt of corn to South Korea, continuing strong export sales. Year-to-date corn sales are up 28% compared to last year. 🚜

Mexico Doesn't Want a Trade War, Corn Prices Surge Feb 04, 2025

Show notes

Trump Temporarily Suspends Tariffs on Mexico 🇲🇽💼
President Trump agreed to delay the planned 25% tariffs on Mexico for 30 days. 🇺🇸🤝🇲🇽 In return, Mexico committed to sending 10,000 National Guard officers to the border to curb fentanyl and migrant flows. As a result, the Mexican peso strengthened, and corn futures recovered, easing concerns over unshipped US corn sales to Mexico. 🌽💰
Trump Suspends Tariffs on Canadian Imports 🇨🇦💼
President Trump also delayed tariffs on Canadian imports for 30 days after negotiations with Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. Canada agreed to spend $1.3 billion to strengthen its border, appoint a fentanyl czar, and list Mexican cartels as terrorist groups. 📈
China Announces Retaliatory Tariffs 🇨🇳⚔️
China imposed retaliatory tariffs on some US imports, including a 15% tariff on $5 billion worth of energy imports like oil and natural gas. ⛽ A 10% tariff on agricultural equipment was also announced. China refrained from targeting soybeans, but tensions remain. ⚖️
Brazilian Real Climbs Against the Dollar 💰📈
The Brazilian real rose for the 11th consecutive day, hitting its highest level since November, following Trump’s tariff suspension on Mexico. 📊 It has gained roughly 6% year-to-date, reflecting optimism about Brazil’s economic outlook.
Brazil’s Soybean Crop Estimates Vary 🌱
Brazil’s soybean crop estimates differ among analysts. Celeres raised its forecast to 174mmt due to favorable weather, while StoneX cut its estimate to 170.9mmt due to dry conditions. 🌾 AgRural reported that Brazil's soybean harvest is 9% complete, trailing behind last year's pace. 📉
US Corn Shipments Surge 🌽🚢
US corn exports remained strong, with 1.3mmt (49 million bushels) inspected for export, up 94% from last year. 🌾 Soybean exports were also up by 37% compared to the prior week. However, wheat shipments declined. 📉

Live from Nashville! Tariff Talk, Unshipped Bushels, The Funds, and More! Feb 03, 2025

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Joe's Premium Subscription: https://standardgrain.com/
Apple Podcasts https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/grain-markets-and-other-stuff/id1494161095
Spotify https://open.spotify.com/show/4NJ9AZcSQBrLXFLCcPrGGG
Trump Imposes Tariffs on Mexico, Canada, and China 💥
President Trump followed through on his threat, imposing 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada, and a 10% tariff on China, effective Tuesday. 🌎 These tariffs are set to stay until illegal immigration and fentanyl influx stop. Additional tariffs on steel, aluminum, chips, and pharmaceuticals are expected. Traders seem concerned, as grain markets are trading lower despite the news being telegraphed. 📉
Retaliation Plans from Mexico and Canada 🇲🇽🇨🇦
Both Canada and Mexico are preparing counter-tariffs. Canada plans 25% tariffs on $106 billion worth of U.S. goods, starting with a quarter on Tuesday. Mexico is considering retaliatory tariffs, though specifics aren't out yet. China, facing a 10% tariff, will take legal action via the WTO. 🌾 Corn and soybean retaliation remains a possibility. 🌽
Funds Increase Net-Long Position in Corn and Soybeans 📊
Large money managers increased their net-long position in both corn and soybeans last week, with the net-long corn position hitting a record high. 📈 The funds were net buyers of 22k corn contracts and 7k soybean contracts, signaling optimism about crop potential despite market volatility. 🐂
Argentina's Soybean Crop Outlook Deteriorates 🌱
Argentina’s soybean crop may be worse than expected, with satellite imagery estimating it at just 45mmt, much lower than earlier projections. 🌧️ Harvesting is behind, and rain forecasted for the coming days is expected to be light, offering little relief. 🌾
U.S. Resumes Mexican Cattle Imports Amid Tight Supply 🐄
The U.S. is set to resume Mexican cattle imports after a suspension due to the New World screwworm. The tight cattle supply has driven U.S. cattle prices to record highs, further reinforced by USDA's report showing the smallest U.S. cattle herd since 1951. 📉

Corn Gaps Lower After Trump Confirms Tariff Plan Jan 31, 2025

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Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
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Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
Trump's Tariff Plans Unfold 💥
President Trump plans to impose 25% tariffs on Canadian and Mexican imports starting tomorrow, citing issues like fentanyl trafficking and trade deficits. 🌎 The tariffs could increase over time, with China also being targeted. The situation remains fluid, with Trump aides seeking last-minute deals. ⚖️
Mexico Prepares Retaliation 🇲🇽
Mexico is ready to retaliate with tariffs of up to 20% on U.S. products like produce, cheese, pork, and bourbon. 🍋🧀 The proposed 25% tariff on Mexican imports could cost 400,000 U.S. jobs, but for now, Mexican corn purchases remain unaffected. 🌽
Brazil's Corn Planting Delays Impact Supply 🌾
Delayed planting in Brazil’s top corn-producing state, Mato Grosso, could further restrict global corn supply. 🌧️ Despite the delay, planting progress is expected to pick up this week, with two-thirds of Brazil's second corn crop coming from Mato Grosso and Paraná. 📅
US Corn Export Sales Strong 🚢
US corn export sales were solid last week, with Japan leading the purchases. 🌍 Soybean sales fell short of expectations, while wheat exports surged. 🌾
US Drought Conditions Update 🌵
Drought conditions in the Corn Belt remained steady last week, with expansion in western Missouri. 🌾 29% of the region is experiencing drought, with soybeans and spring wheat also impacted. 🌱

ROCKET SHIP: Spot Corn Trades 14-Month High Jan 30, 2025

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Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
0:00 Wednesday's Rally
4:00 Mexico Tariff Comments
6:41 Lutnick Comments
7:56 Russia Wheat Situation
9:02 Fed Holds Rates Steady
Corn and Soybean Futures Surge 🌾
Corn and soybean futures saw a strong rally on Wednesday, with corn reaching a 7-month high at $4.97. 🌽 The tightening U.S. supply-demand situation continues to support these markets, and wheat futures also gained. 📈
Mexico Prepared for Potential Tariffs 🇲🇽
Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum isn’t expecting immediate tariffs but has a plan in place if they are implemented. 🚨 A potential trade war could impact the $800 billion annual trade between the U.S. and Mexico, with Mexico being the top buyer of U.S. corn this year. 🌽
Trump’s Commerce Secretary on Tariffs 💼
President Trump's nominee for Commerce Secretary emphasized that tariffs could be avoided if Mexico and Canada curb fentanyl flows. He also discussed potential restrictions on China’s access to technology due to recent AI developments. ⚖️
Russian Grain Exports Expected to Decline 🌾
Russia’s grain exports are projected to drop significantly this season, falling to 57mmt from 72mmt last year, due to extreme weather conditions. 🌧️ Despite this, 82% of the country's grain crop is reportedly in good condition. 🌾
Fed Holds Interest Rates Steady 💵
The Federal Reserve kept interest rates steady, noting that inflation remains high and the job market is solid. President Trump criticized the Fed for allowing inflation to rise and promised to stabilize prices through energy production and better trade deals. 📉

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