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Ethanol Stocks BALLOON: Corn Demand at Risk?? Feb 27, 2025

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0:00 Intro
0:44 Ethanol Stocks SURGE
3:41 Wheat Selloff
5:11 Trump Tariff Update
7:34 USDA Egg Price Plan
9:33 Argentina Strike
10:50 Podcasts on YouTube
Ethanol Stocks Surge 📈
US ethanol stocks spiked to near-record levels last week, reaching 27.6 million barrels, a 5.2% increase on the week. This was the highest level seen since the early stages of the COVID lockdown, when driving was at a standstill. While weekly ethanol output dipped slightly, the data raises questions about accuracy, as the EIA has been known for "bad data" in the past. 🛢️💥
Wheat Futures Fall Amid Weather Forecasts 🌾
Wheat futures have fallen sharply in the past three sessions, with the May25 HRW wheat contract losing more than 23 cents. Much of the U.S. winter wheat country will receive rain, benefiting SRW areas in the Midwest, while HRW areas will see more scattered rainfall. Meanwhile, recent snowfall in Russian winter wheat areas has led to more optimism for their crop prospects. 🌧️❄️
Uncertainty Surrounding Tariffs 📊
The timing of President Trump's proposed 25% tariffs on Canadian, Mexican, and EU imports remains uncertain. Initially set to take effect on March 4, Trump now says the tariffs may begin on April 2. This has caused confusion, with a White House official suggesting that tariffs would be implemented next week but with no final decision yet. The EU is prepared for retaliatory tariffs. 💥🌍
USDA's $1B Plan to Combat Bird Flu 🐔💰
The USDA will allocate up to $1 billion to tackle the bird flu outbreak and help reduce egg prices. The funds will focus on improving biosecurity, assisting farmers, and developing vaccines. Over the past four years, egg prices have surged by 237%, reaching $4.95 per dozen. The USDA is also working to eliminate unnecessary regulations on egg producers. 🍳💸
Argentina Faces Oilseed Strike 🌱💥
Argentina's main oilseed union is threatening a nationwide strike after agribusiness giant Vicentin failed to pay wages. The company is facing legal challenges, and the court ruling may cause Vicentin to default, leading to a halt in operations. This could affect Argentina's already struggling oilseed industry. 🇦🇷⚠️
YouTube Dominates the Podcast Market 🎙️
More than one billion people tune into podcasts on YouTube every month, surpassing Spotify as the top podcast platform since October 2024. YouTube users streamed over 400 million hours of podcasts on living room devices alone. In response to competition from Spotify, YouTube is offering up to $300,000 to podcasters for video versions of their shows.

Rep Massie Bashes Ethanol: Tone Deaf and Clueless?? Feb 26, 2025

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0:00 Massie Hates Ethanol
4:34 Corn Holds Support
6:15 Russian Wheat Exports
8:58 Mex/US Negotiations
10:00 Gold Selloff
11:00 Stock Market Selloff
Massie's Controversial Comment on Ethanol 🛢️
U.S. Representative Thomas Massie posted a controversial comment on X, arguing that ethanol subsidies and mandates should be excluded from the Republican reconciliation plan. He claims that using corn for fuel increases food prices. As a farmer, Massie has a long history of advocating for reforms in agriculture, health, and food policy. This sparked a response from the Renewable Fuels Association. 🌽⚡
Corn Futures Bounce After Hitting Support 📉🔼
Corn futures bounced on Tuesday after hitting technical support near $4.88 per bushel. The May25 contract ended the day near $4.94, marking its third consecutive lower close. Traders are speculating about an increase in U.S. corn acreage ahead of the USDA Ag Outlook Forum data, which will be released tomorrow. The Prospective Plantings report comes out March 31st. 🌾📈
Russian Wheat Exports Revised Downward 🌾
Sovecon revised Russia’s wheat export forecast down to 42.2mmt, a slight decrease from the previous estimate of 42.8mmt. Analysts are concerned about limited snow cover leaving the crop vulnerable to frosts. However, the 2025/2026 export forecast was slightly increased. Russia continues to face challenges with its wheat exports this season. 🌍📉
Mexico-U.S. Trade Talks Heat Up 🇲🇽🤝🇺🇸
Mexican officials are meeting with U.S. representatives this week to discuss trade policy ahead of next week’s tariff deadline. Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum stated a deal is likely to avoid a trade war, but retaliatory tariffs are on the table if an agreement isn't reached. Canada has also warned of tariffs on U.S. exports. The 25% tariffs on Canadian and Mexican imports are set to proceed as planned. 🌎💸
Gold Prices Drop After Hitting Record High 💰📉
Gold prices plunged by 1.4% on Tuesday, following an all-time high reached the previous day. The decline came amid uncertainty over President Trump’s proposed tariffs and weak economic data. Speculators reduced their net long positions in gold, signaling that its upward trend may be stalling. 📉💎
Stock Market Struggles 📉
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq experienced their fourth consecutive day of losses on Tuesday, with declines of about 3.8% and 4.5%, respectively. The drop was fueled by the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index, which showed a third consecutive monthly decline. Concerns over President Trump’s tariffs and inflation fears have contributed to the market's struggles. 📉📊

Corn Selloff + China Pork Problems Feb 25, 2025

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Grain Markets Fall Sharply 📉
The grain markets saw a significant decline on Monday, with the May25 corn contract losing 8 cents, soybean futures dropping by 10 cents, and wheat futures falling 10-12 cents per bushel. The selloff is likely linked to a shift in Argentina's weather, as key corn and soybean areas saw beneficial rainfall, with more forecasted across the country. 🌽🌧️
China's Pork Consumption Stalls 🐖
China's pork consumption has slowed due to oversupply and economic struggles, which has led to a surplus and suppressed prices. The government is considering overseeing hog slaughter and regulating production capacity, which could impact global soybean prices, as China is the largest importer of soybeans for livestock feed. 🐷📉
Brazil's Soybean Forecast Lowered 🌾
AgRural reduced its forecast for Brazil's soybean crop to 168.2mmt, down from 171mmt due to dry conditions in the southern region. While soybean harvest progress is on track, Brazil's second corn crop planting remains behind last year's pace, with only 64% planted as of last Thursday. 🇧🇷🌱
Tariffs on Canada and Mexico to Proceed 🇲🇽🇨🇦
President Trump confirmed that 25% tariffs on Canadian and Mexican imports will move forward, despite some uncertainty surrounding the details. The tariffs are aimed at securing stronger borders, and Trump has also warned of additional tariffs on steel and aluminum in March. ⚒️💵
Mexico Considers Tariffs on China 🇲🇽🇨🇳
Mexico is weighing the possibility of implementing tariffs on China while working to avoid the 25% tariff threat from the US. This comes amid ongoing negotiations on stronger action against migrants and fentanyl, which could trigger tariffs in March. 💣🔻
US Corn Shipments Decline 📉
US corn shipments declined last week, with only 1.1mmt (45mil bushels) inspected for export, down 30% from the previous week. Soybean shipments showed a slight increase, but wheat shipments were also lower than expected, down 22% from last year. 🚜📦

Corn Correction, Acreage Talk, Argy Rains Feb 24, 2025

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Corn Futures Correct Lower 📉
CME Group corn futures saw a correction lower after reaching $5.04 last week, trading below $4.90 overnight. The strong rally may have made a correction overdue. Forecasts of rainfall in Argentina's corn country and discussions of increased US corn acreage have added selling pressure ahead of USDA's Ag Outlook Forum data later this week. 🌽🌧️
Brazil Soybean Harvest Progressing 🌱
Brazil's soybean harvest continues to mirror last year's pace, with 37.6% of the crop harvested compared to 38% last year. Conab forecasts Brazil's crop at 166 MMT, while the USDA estimates 169 MMT. Dry conditions are expected in some regions over the next two weeks, though rainfall in Argentina may ease row crop weakness. 🇧🇷🌾
Funds Increase Net-Long Position 💼
CFTC data shows "The Funds" increased their net-long position in corn and wheat markets last week. Large money managers bought 33k corn contracts, bringing the net long to 360k contracts—the second largest since April 2022. Wheat contracts also saw increased buying, while soybean contracts experienced net selling. 💰📊
US Corn Export Sales Decline 🌍
US corn export sales dropped last week to 1.5mmt (67mil bushels), down 12% from the previous week. However, sales remain strong, with Mexico being the largest buyer. Soybean sales also saw a decline, while wheat sales remained robust, rising 31% from the prior 4-week average. 🚜🌽
Stock Market Tumbles 📉
The stock market fell sharply on Friday, with the Dow Jones and S&P 500 down by 1.7%, and the Nasdaq declining by 2.2%. The losses came amid concerns of slowing economic growth, persistent inflation, and geopolitical tensions. Disappointing economic data and consumer inflation expectations fueled the declines. 📊💥
Cattle on Feed Report Neutral to Slightly Bullish 🐄
The February 1st Cattle on Feed report showed 11.7 million head on feed, a slight decrease from pre-report estimates and 1% lower than last year. January placements were lower than expected, which may be viewed as slightly bullish by the market. The report suggests tighter cattle numbers for the coming months. 🐄📉

Trump Talks Trade Deal + Corn Spread Chat Feb 21, 2025

Show notes

Potential US-China Trade Deal 🌐
Despite rising tensions, President Trump hinted at the possibility of a new trade deal with China. This follows his announcement of a 10% tariff on Chinese imports, which prompted China to retaliate with tariffs on U.S. coal, LNG, oil, machinery, and vehicles. Although China failed to meet its Phase One commitments, Trump remains optimistic about renegotiating terms. 🤝📉
Corn Futures Near $5 💰
The Mar25 corn contract hovers near the $5 mark as option expiration approaches. A large amount of open interest at this strike price may influence market behavior today. Additionally, the Mar25-May25 spread reached record-wide levels, hinting at volatility ahead. 🌽💥
Concerns Over Canadian Tariffs and Fertilizer Costs 💸
Nutrien warns that President Trump's proposed 25% tariffs on Canadian imports could raise U.S. farmers' fertilizer costs, particularly for potash, which is mostly sourced from Canada. The price increase could exceed $100 per ton, affecting farmers after the spring planting season. 🌱⚠️
USDA Releases Frozen Funds 💵
The USDA is releasing $20 million in funds for approved contracts under programs like the Environmental Quality Incentive Program and Conservation Stewardship Program. This follows a review prompted by President Trump's executive order freezing funding. More funds are expected to be released soon. 💼🔓
Gold Prices Surge to Record High 🏆
Gold prices reached a new high of $2,954.69 per ounce, driven by fears of a global trade war amid President Trump's tariff plans. Some analysts predict gold could exceed $3,000, though a potential Russia-Ukraine peace deal might limit further price increases. 🛑💰
Drought Conditions Improving Slightly 🌾
The USDA’s drought monitor shows slight improvements in drought conditions across the Corn Belt, particularly in Ohio, Indiana, and Illinois. However, challenges remain in the High Plains and some areas of the Midwest. 🌧️🌾
US Ethanol Production Holds Steady 🔋
Ethanol production was stable last week, with output holding steady compared to last year. Ethanol stocks saw a 2% increase, and gasoline demand showed a slight uptick year-over-year, despite a weekly dip in demand. ⛽📊

Another Argentina HEAT WAVE - Crops at Risk?? Feb 20, 2025

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Warm Temperatures in Argentina 🌡️
Argentina's key farming areas are set to experience temperatures as high as 95°F in the coming days. While the heat could stress crops, the Buenos Aires grains exchange forecasts beneficial rainfall early next week, with some areas receiving up to an inch of rain. The soybean crop is estimated at 49.6mmt, and the corn crop at 49mmt. 🌱🌞
Brazil's Soybean Crop Estimate Reduced 🌾
Agroconsult has revised Brazil's soybean crop estimate to 171.3mmt, down from 172.4mmt in January, mainly due to drought in southern Brazil. However, strong crops in other areas, like Mato Grosso, are expected to offset the losses. Despite the cut, Brazil's soybean crop is still expected to be 10% larger than last season. 🇧🇷🌾
Tensions Between Trump and Zelensky ⚡
Tensions have escalated between President Trump and Ukrainian President Zelensky. Trump recently labeled Zelensky a dictator and blamed Ukraine for the war with Russia. Zelensky rejected the claims, calling Trump’s statements Russian propaganda. Meanwhile, Russia launched a drone strike on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, causing power outages. ⚔️⚡
USDA Mistakenly Fired Bird Flu Response Workers 🦠
The USDA mistakenly laid off several employees working on the bird flu response, including veterinarians and health technicians. These staff members are now being rehired to continue their critical work. The bird flu outbreak has devastated flocks, causing egg prices to hit a record high. 🥚💸
Federal Reserve Maintains Cautious Approach on Rates 💵
The Federal Reserve plans to keep interest rates steady for now, awaiting further signs of inflation improvement. While one rate cut is expected this year, concerns remain over inflation, trade policies, and geopolitical tensions. The current benchmark rate sits at 4.25%-4.5%. 📉

Corn Trades 16-Month Highs + DOGE Tackles Checkoff Programs Feb 19, 2025

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CME Corn Futures Surge 🚀
CME corn futures hit their best trade since October 2023, with the Mar25 contract breaking the $5 per bushel mark. US export sales remain a key factor, running 28% ahead of last year’s pace, surpassing USDA's projected 7% increase. "The funds" remain active buyers, holding a net long of 360k contracts. Wheat futures also rose, supported by Black Sea headlines and weather concerns in the US and Russia. Soybean futures closed higher as well. 🌽📈
DOGE Evaluates Agricultural Checkoff Programs 💡
The Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) is reviewing USDA’s 22 checkoff programs as part of a broader effort to reduce federal spending. This review could potentially lead to restructuring or regular voting by producers on whether these programs should continue. The checkoff programs, designed for marketing, research, and education, have faced criticism over transparency and fairness. 🧐
January Soybean Crush Data Released 📊
NOPA's January soybean crush data showed a slight decline from December’s all-time high but was still the second-largest on record for the month. The crush totaled 200.4 million bushels, up 7.9% from last year. Soybean oil stocks climbed to a six-month high of 1.27 billion pounds, though they fell short of trade estimates. 🌱
Trump’s Proposed Tariffs on Automobiles, Semiconductors, and Pharmaceuticals 💰
President Trump announced plans to implement 25% tariffs on automobile, semiconductor, and pharmaceutical imports, with an increase over the next year. The specifics are expected by April, but it's unclear whether the tariffs will target specific countries or all imports. This would have significant effects on U.S. vehicle imports, which make up about half of all vehicle sales in the country. 🚗💥
EU to Ban Pesticide-Treated Crop Imports 🚫
The European Union plans to implement a ban on imports of crops treated with pesticides that are prohibited in Europe for health and environmental reasons. This policy could impact U.S. soybean exports, as the EU is a key buyer of U.S. agricultural products. President Trump has expressed concern, suggesting that such restrictions would harm European markets. 🌍🌾
US Corn Shipments Exceed Expectations 📦
US corn shipments for the week ending February 13 totaled 1.6mmt (63 million bushels), up 19% from the prior week and 53% higher than last year. However, soybean and wheat shipments were below expectations, with soybean exports down 34% and wheat shipments down 56%. 🌾🚢

What is DOGE Doing at USDA?? Feb 18, 2025

Show notes

0:00 Rollins Confirmed
2:05 DOGE and USDA
3:53 Corn and Wheat Rally
5:24 Black Sea Tensions
8:28 Year-Round E15?
10:00 The Funds
11:06 Brazil Update
12:26 US Corn is Competitive
Brooke Rollins Confirmed as US Secretary of Agriculture 🌾
Brooke Rollins was confirmed as US Secretary of Agriculture with a 72-28 vote. She plans to speed up disaster farm aid and address animal diseases. Rollins emphasized the importance of fairness in agriculture and the USDA's efforts to reduce costs, fraud, and waste. Thousands of probationary employees were fired last week as part of the USDA's efforts to improve efficiency. 🚜
Corn & Wheat Futures Soar 🌽🌾
Corn and wheat futures reached multi-month highs on Friday, with the Mar25 corn contract peaking just below $5.00 per bushel. HRW wheat also posted its highest trade since June, boosted by Black Sea concerns, weather worries in the US and Russia, and short-covering. Soybean futures closed higher but have trended lower since earlier this month. 📉
Ukraine and Europe Concerned About Exclusion from Peace Talks 🇺🇦
Ukraine and European officials are worried about being excluded from US-Russia peace talks. US officials are meeting with Russian leaders to discuss ending the war in Ukraine. While President Trump has mentioned including Ukrainian President Zelenskyy in the talks, the situation remains uncertain. A recent drone attack on Ukraine’s Chernobyl plant has added to tensions. ⚔️
E15 Sales Legislation Reintroduced 🛢️
Bipartisan legislation to allow year-round sales of E15 fuel was reintroduced in the House and Senate. The measure aims to streamline regulations and remove restrictions on E15 availability. The American Petroleum Institute supports the legislation, but new demand could be offset by exports. E15 fuel requires new infrastructure at gas stations. ⛽
Funds Trim Positions in Corn & Soybeans 💹
Large money managers trimmed their net-long positions in both the corn and soybean markets last week. Corn saw a reduction of 35k contracts, while soybean contracts saw a cut of 31k. The funds were net buyers of SRW wheat on the week. 📊
Brazil’s Soybean Harvest Lags 🌱
Brazil's soybean harvest continues to lag behind last year’s pace, with only 23% of the crop harvested so far, compared to 32% last year. The delay in harvest has affected the planting of Brazil's second corn crop, with some areas experiencing hot and dry weather. 🌾
US Corn Flash Sale 🚚
US exporters sold 100,000mt of corn to Colombia for the 2024/2025 marketing year. Corn sales for this marketing year are the second highest in the past decade, and US corn is expected to remain competitive on the global market through at least June. 🌍

Trump LOVES U.S. Ethanol, Will Tariff Imports Feb 14, 2025

Show notes

Trump’s Reciprocal Tariffs Proposal 💸
President Trump plans to implement reciprocal tariffs aimed at eliminating trade imbalances, with tailored tariffs for each country to spark new trade negotiations. These tariffs, designed to offset the projected $1.9 trillion budget deficit, have raised concerns about potential retaliation and inflation. Critics worry that they could increase costs for consumers and manufacturers, while Trump believes they will lead to fairer trade deals in the long run. ⚖️
Corn Futures Hold Strong 🌽
Corn futures traded near their recent highs, with the Mar25 contract peaking in the $4.90s but still unable to break the $5 mark. The market shrugged off neutral supply/demand data from USDA on Tuesday. Speculators estimate that large money managers ("the funds") were net long around 350k contracts at Thursday’s close. 📉
Brazil’s Corn Production Outlook 📈
Brazil’s Conab raised its forecast for the nation’s corn production by 2.1%, now pegging it at 122mmt. However, corn planting is lagging behind last year’s pace, with only 5.3% of the crop planted so far. The agency also slightly reduced its soybean crop estimate due to dry conditions affecting the southern regions. 🌾
John Deere Faces Challenges 🚜
John Deere reported a 35% drop in first-quarter revenue, missing analysts' expectations. The company warned that President Trump’s tariffs on steel and aluminum could further harm profitability, as the price of industrial metals rises. Deere expects a decline in sales of large tractors and combines this year. 📉
Strong US Corn & Wheat Export Sales 🌍
US corn and wheat export sales showed strong numbers last week. Corn sales were up 12% compared to the previous week, with Japan as the largest buyer. Wheat sales were also strong, up 30%, with Mexico as the top buyer. Soybean sales, however, were disappointing, falling 52% from the previous week. 🌾
Drought Conditions in the US 🌞
Drought conditions across the Corn Belt remained mostly unchanged, with some expansion in central Missouri to west-central Ohio. Currently, 32% of the region is experiencing some level of drought, compared to 56% three months ago. The High Plains also saw some worsening conditions, particularly in parts of Nebraska and Kansas. 🌾
Wholesale Prices Rise Unexpectedly 📊
US wholesale prices rose 3.5% in January, higher than the expected 3.2% increase. The rise was driven by higher food and energy costs, which has diminished expectations for multiple interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year. Some traders now expect no rate cuts at all in 2024 due to the economic impact of tariffs. 💵

Why Did Soybeans TANK on Wednesday? Feb 13, 2025

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Today is THURSDAY! We all make mistakes!

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Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
Soybean Futures Drop 🚜📉
Soybean futures fell sharply on Wednesday, with the Mar25 contract losing nearly 16 cents per bushel, hitting its lowest close since January 16th. Reports of large yields in Brazil, rainfall in Argentina, and a bearish global supply-demand situation have been weighing on prices. Analysts believe that large money managers were net sellers but likely remain net long. 📊
Argentina's Rain Brings Relief 🌧️
Heavy rains in key corn and soybean areas of Argentina on Wednesday brought much-needed moisture to drought-affected regions. The Buenos Aires Grains Exchange noted that the rains reached areas that had missed previous precipitation, helping crops recover. USDA has lowered its projection for Argentina’s corn and soybean crops due to the dry conditions. 🌱
Trump and Putin Discuss Ukraine Conflict ☎️
President Trump and Russian President Putin discussed efforts to end the Ukraine war. The move could mark a significant shift in US policy. While some believe an end to the war would be bearish for wheat, the ongoing conflict has not supported prices for the past two years. 🌍
Trump Approves SAF Plant Expansion 🌱
The Trump administration has approved a loan for the expansion of a biofuel plant in Montana. This expansion is aimed at boosting U.S. energy dominance, aligning with Trump's goals despite concerns within the biofuel industry. 🔋
Inflation Higher Than Expected 💸
January's consumer inflation was hotter than anticipated, with a 3.0% rise compared to last year. Housing costs continue to drive inflation, with food and energy also showing increases. The Federal Reserve is expected to keep the key benchmark rate steady in March. 📉
Ethanol Production Declines 📉
US ethanol production fell last week, marking a -2.7% decline from the prior week and a modest drop from the previous year. With rising corn prices, ethanol production margins have trended lower, and the market is currently seeing negative margins. 🌽

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