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    Business

    Grain Markets and Other Stuff

    Joe Vaclavik and Mackenzie Johnston discuss the grain markets, the business of farming, news related to agriculture, and a variety of other topics.

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    Copyright: ยฉ 2023 Grain Markets and Other Stuff

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    Latest Episodes:
    How Will EU Tariffs Impact Demand for US Grains?? Mar 13, 2025
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    EU Tariffs Could Impact U.S. Agricultural Exports ๐ŸŒพ
    President Trump's 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum prompted the European Union to announce retaliatory tariffs on up to $28 billion worth of U.S. imports, including agricultural products like corn, soybeans, beef, and poultry. These tariffs could hurt the EU livestock industry, but the EU remains open to negotiations, with feed grains possibly playing a role in easing tensions. ๐Ÿšœ
    Canadian Farmers Shifting Crops Due to Tariff Threats ๐Ÿ๐ŸŒพ
    Canadian farmers are expected to plant more wheat (+2.6%) and less canola (-1.7%) this year. However, the tariff threats from the U.S. and China have led to uncertainty in planting intentions. China announced a 100% tariff on Canadian canola oil and meal, while Trumpโ€™s 25% tariff on Canadian goods will start in April, adding further pressure on the market. ๐ŸŒฑ
    Hedge Funds Cut Market Exposure Amid Trade and Economic Concerns ๐Ÿ“‰
    Concerns about tariffs and a slowing economy prompted hedge funds to reduce their market exposure. The S&P 500 dropped nearly 9% from its peak, with a significant reduction in positions from industrial stocks. This sharp de-grossing follows fears of lower consumer spending, corporate profit declines, and a potential recession. ๐Ÿ“‰
    U.S. Ethanol Stocks Remain High Amid Steady Production โ›ฝ
    U.S. ethanol stocks rose slightly to 27.4 million barrels, remaining at historically high levels. Despite a minor week-over-week drop in production, ethanol output remains above last year's levels. Gasoline demand showed a slight increase, with ethanol stocks still reflective of early COVID-era levels. โ›ฝ๐Ÿ“Š
    US Consumer Prices Rise at Slowest Pace in Four Months ๐Ÿ“‰๐Ÿ’ต
    Inflation increased by 0.2% in February, slower than Januaryโ€™s 0.5% rise and below expectations. On an annual basis, inflation reached 2.8%, a decrease from Januaryโ€™s 3%. Despite this moderation, there are concerns that tariffs could drive prices higher in the coming months. The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain interest rates as policymakers monitor inflation. ๐Ÿ“Š


    USDA Refuses to Acknowledge STRONG Corn Exports Mar 12, 2025
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    USDA Keeps Corn and Soybean Balance Sheets Unchanged ๐Ÿ“Š๐ŸŒฝ
    The USDA left its corn and soybean balance sheets unchanged, despite expectations for reductions in corn ending stocks due to strong export demand. Soybean stock estimates were also left the same, though some analysts had hoped for a slight decrease. The USDA refrained from making any changes as they await developments regarding US tariffs and global reactions. The wheat balance sheet saw a minor adjustment, with stock levels rising more than expected. Markets responded negatively, driven by lower-than-expected demand estimates for corn and increased wheat inventories. ๐ŸŒพ
    President Trump Softens Tariff Threat Against Canada ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ“‰
    After a conversation between Ontarioโ€™s Premier and US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, President Trump decided to scale back his initial threat of doubling tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum. The pause on Ontarioโ€™s 25% electricity tax led to the reversal, with Trump sticking to a 25% tariff on Canadian metals instead. This came alongside Trumpโ€™s assertion that the US economy will experience a strong boom rather than a recession, despite ongoing tariff tensions. ๐Ÿ’ผ
    Soybean Production in Rio Grande do Sul Drops ๐Ÿ“‰
    The soybean outlook in Rio Grande do Sul, Brazilโ€™s key soybean-producing state, has worsened. Local crop agency Emater reported a 30% reduction in the stateโ€™s crop estimate due to prolonged hot and dry conditions. However, Brazilโ€™s national crop agency, Conab, still projects a record-high national soybean crop of 166mmt, despite these regional reductions. ๐ŸŒฑ
    Russian Missile Attack in Odesa Hits Grain Vessel โš”๏ธ๐ŸŒพ
    A Russian missile struck the Black Sea port of Odesa, damaging a grain vessel and killing four crew members and a port employee. The attack occurred while the vessel was loading wheat destined for Algeria. Both Russia and Ukraine have intensified their military actions, while the Trump administration continues to push for peace talks. ๐Ÿšข๐Ÿ’ฅ
    Stock Market Losses Extend Amid Tariff Uncertainty ๐Ÿ“‰๐Ÿ’ฐ
    The stock market saw further losses on Tuesday, primarily due to concerns about President Trumpโ€™s tariff threats against Canada. The S&P 500 dropped 0.8%, entering correction territory, while the Dow Jones lost 1.1% and the Nasdaq fell by 0.2%. The volatility was fueled by shifting trade policy decisions and unsettled consumer confidence. Investors are awaiting the February CPI report, with projections indicating a slight decrease in inflation compared to January. ๐Ÿ“‰๐Ÿ“Š


    Corn Exports Continue to be a WOW! Mar 11, 2025
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    00:00 Export Inspections
    3:03 Canola Market
    5:20 Brazilian Soybean Harvest
    7:19 USDA Report
    8:59 Stock Market
    10:50 Flash Sales

    ๐ŸŒฝ Strong US Corn Shipments, Mixed Results for Other Grains
    US corn shipments surged last week, with USDA reporting 1.8 million metric tons (72 million bushels) shipped for the week ending March 6. This exceeded expectations, rising 35% from the prior week and 56% from the same period last year. Soybean shipments also increased, reaching 844,218 metric tons (31 million bushels), up 21% from the previous week and 7.5% year-over-year. Meanwhile, wheat shipments fell short of expectations at 216,173 metric tons (8 million bushels), marking a 45% decline from the prior week and a 55% drop compared to last year.

    ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ฆ Canola Market Hit by Chinaโ€™s Tariffs
    Canola prices tumbled after China imposed a 100% tariff on canola oil and meal in retaliation for Canadaโ€™s tariffs on Chinese EVs. While Canadian farmers faced significant losses on Monday, prices stabilized somewhat today. Notably, canola seed exports remain unaffected for now. With 95% of canola exports heading to the US, Canadian producers are in a tough spot.

    ๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ท Brazilโ€™s Soybean Harvest Progressing, Weather Concerns Persist
    Brazilโ€™s soybean harvest is moving faster than last year, with 61% of the crop harvested as of last Thursday, compared to 55% at the same time in 2023. However, concerns remain over soybean yields in Rio Grande do Sul due to hot and dry conditions. Brazilโ€™s second corn crop planting is nearly complete, with 92% finishedโ€”just shy of last yearโ€™s 93%.

    ๐Ÿ“Š USDA Crop Production & WASDE Report Due Today
    The USDA will release its monthly Crop Production and WASDE report at 11 AM CST. While the report is usually uneventful, traders will be watching for any adjustments related to trade policies. No major changes are anticipated for South American crops.

    ๐Ÿ“‰ Stock Market Slumps Amid Recession Fears
    The stock market took a hit on Monday due to growing recession concerns. The Dow Jones fell 2.1%, the S&P 500 dropped 2.7%, and the Nasdaq plunged 4%, marking its worst session since September 2022. Tech stocks saw steep losses as investors worried about the economic impact of President Trumpโ€™s proposed tariffs, spending cuts, and geopolitical shifts. Adding to concerns, Trump refused to rule out a US recession over the weekend, calling the current economic situation a "transition period." Economic fears also led to a sharp decline in the 10-year Treasury yield, which dropped to 4.2% from its recent 4.8% peak.

    ๐Ÿš€ USDA Reports Two Flash Sales

    • 126,000 metric tons (5 million bushels) of corn sold to Japan for the 2024/2025 marketing year.
    • 195,000 metric tons (7 million bushels) of soybeans sold to unknown destinations for the 2024/2025 marketing year. ๐ŸŒŽ๐Ÿ“ฆ

    Tariff Uncertainty and Funds Crashing Mar 10, 2025
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    ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ณ China Imposes $2.6 Billion in Tariffs on Canada

    China has placed $2.6 billion in tariffs on Canadian agricultural and food products, starting March 20. This includes a 100% levy on $1 billion worth of canola oil, oil cakes, and pea imports. ๐ŸŒพ๐Ÿฅœ Additionally, a 25% tariff will be applied to $1.6 billion worth of aquatic products and pork. ๐ŸŸ๐Ÿ– The move is in retaliation for Canada's 2023 tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles, steel, and aluminum. Interestingly, canola seeds were excluded, signaling Chinaโ€™s openness to negotiations. Some analysts see this as a warning to Canada, discouraging it from aligning too closely with U.S. trade policies. โš–๏ธ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ฆ

    ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ Trump on Possible Recession & Tariffs

    In a Fox News interview on Sunday, Trump declined to rule out a potential recession or higher inflation. ๐Ÿ“‰๐Ÿ’ฐ He admitted that his tariffs might cause a transition period but emphasized their long-term benefits. Trump particularly highlighted the advantages for U.S. agriculture but provided no specific details. ๐ŸŒพ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ He also reinforced his vision of a business-driven economy, rather than one reliant on government intervention. Meanwhile, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick dismissed recession concerns, instead predicting strong U.S. economic growth in the next two years. ๐Ÿ“ˆ๐Ÿ’ผ

    ๐ŸŒฝ Funds Dump Corn & Soybean Holdings

    "The Funds" cut their net-long positions in the corn market last week, according to CFTC's Commitment of Traders report released Friday. During the week ending March 4, large money managers were net sellers of 127k corn contracts, marking the biggest weekly selloff since February 2023. ๐Ÿ“‰๐ŸŒฝ Additionally, they sold off 48k soybean contracts and 18k contracts of SRW wheat. ๐ŸŒพ๐Ÿ’ฐ

    ๐Ÿฅš DOJ Investigates Surging Egg Prices

    The DOJ has launched an antitrust investigation into soaring egg prices, probing whether major producers colluded to inflate prices or restrict supply for higher profits. ๐Ÿ“Šโš–๏ธ Egg prices have surged over 50% year-over-year, with consumers paying about $5 per dozen. ๐Ÿฅš๐Ÿ’ต The egg industry blames the price hike on the worst bird flu outbreak in U.S. history, which has led to the destruction of 150+ million chickens, turkeys, and egg-laying hens. To address the crisis, the USDA has allocated $1 billion to fight bird flu and stabilize egg prices. ๐Ÿ›๏ธ๐Ÿ”

    ๐Ÿ“‰ US Job Growth Misses Expectations

    The U.S. economy added 151,000 jobs in February, falling short of the 170,000 projection despite being higher than Januaryโ€™s revised 125,000. ๐Ÿ‘ท๐Ÿ“Š The unemployment rate ticked up to 4.1% from 4%, while average hourly wages increased 0.3%, as expected. However, the annual wage growth of 4% was slightly below the expected 4.2%. Meanwhile, the number of part-time workers for economic reasons jumped to 4.9 million, the highest since October 2021. The Department of Government Efficiency also cut 5,000 federal jobs in Januaryโ€”the first decline in federal employment since June 2022. ๐Ÿ›๏ธ๐Ÿ“‰


    How Bad Does Mexico Really Need US Corn? Mar 07, 2025
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    Trade & Market Updates ๐ŸŒ๐Ÿ“‰

    President Trump has temporarily paused tariffs on Mexican imports under the USMCA agreement, exempting them from his recently imposed 25% tariff until April 2. The decision came after a conversation with Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum, who reported a 41% drop in fentanyl seizures at the border from January to February. Later, Trump extended the same exemption to Canadian imports under the trade deal. His shifting stance on tariffs has created market uncertainty, weakening consumer confidence and causing financial markets to plunge on Thursdayโ€”Dow -1%, S&P 500 -1.8%, Nasdaq -2.6%.๐Ÿ“‰

    The U.S. is moving to impose docking fees on Chinese-linked vessels and pressuring allies to follow suit or risk retaliation. This effort aims to strengthen domestic shipbuilding and reduce Chinaโ€™s influence in global shipping. The draft order also includes tariffs on Chinese cargo-handling equipment. Last month, the U.S. Trade Representative's office recommended fees of up to $1.5 million on Chinese-built ships entering U.S. ports following an investigation into Chinaโ€™s dominance in global shipping. ๐Ÿšขโš–๏ธ

    Amid escalating U.S.-China trade tensions, Brazil ๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ท is poised to increase its agricultural exports to China. Earlier this week, Trump raised tariffs on China by 10%, prompting China to retaliate with 15% tariffs on $21 billion worth of U.S. agricultural products, including meat and soybeans. Chinese importers may now favor tariff-free grains & protein from Brazil. A similar shift occurred during Trump's first term, when the U.S.-China trade war led to a major decline in U.S. soybean exports to China, a market share the U.S. never fully recovered. These new tariffs, though lower than before, may accelerate Chinaโ€™s move away from U.S. agricultural supplies. ๐ŸŒพ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ณ

    U.S. corn exports increased last week, with 909,100 MT (36 million bushels) soldโ€”up 15% from the previous week but down 32% vs. the 4-week average. Japan was the largest buyer. Soybean sales reached 352,900 MT (13 million bushels), down 14% weekly but stable vs. the 4-week average, with China as the top buyer. Wheat sales hit 338,700 MT (12 million bushels), up 26% weekly but down 25% vs. the 4-week average, with Mexico leading purchases. ๐Ÿ“Š๐ŸŒฝ๐Ÿซ˜

    The USDA's latest drought monitor reveals worsening drought in Indiana, Illinois, and Missouri, with below-average snowfall in Minnesota raising concerns. Currently, 43% of the Corn Belt is experiencing drought, up from 32% in January. The High Plains remained mostly dry, with drought expanding in Kansas & Oklahoma. ๐Ÿ”ฅ๐ŸŒพ

    • Drought Impact by Crop:
      • ๐ŸŒฝ Corn: 60%
      • ๐Ÿซ˜ Soybeans: 50%
      • ๐ŸŒพ Winter Wheat: 24% | Spring Wheat: 39%
      • ๐Ÿ„ Cattle: 38%

    The USDA reported a flash sale of 20,000 MT of soybean oil on Thursday for delivery in 2024/2025, mirroring a similar sale on Tuesday. ๐Ÿš€


    How Many Unshipped US Corn and Soybean Bushels are at Risk?? (Tariffs) Mar 06, 2025
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    Temporary Tariff Exemption for Canadian and Mexican Auto Imports ๐Ÿš—๐Ÿ“ˆ
    On Wednesday, President Trump announced a one-month exemption from the 25% tariffs on automotive imports from Canada and Mexico. The pause, which responds to requests from automakers, has boosted stock markets. The exemption applies to manufacturers under the USMCA trade agreement. Despite this, Trump plans to continue using tariffs as leverage to address fentanyl smuggling concerns. Last year, automotive trade between the US, Canada, and Mexico totaled $345 billion, with a surplus for the US with Canada and a deficit with Mexico. ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡ฒ๐Ÿ‡ฝ
    Potential Agricultural Product Exemptions from Tariffs ๐ŸŒพ๐Ÿ’ก
    Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins hinted at possible relief for agricultural sectors, suggesting that potash and fertilizer could be exempt from the recent tariffs on Canada and Mexico. This comes after Trumpโ€™s 25% tariffs on both countries and an additional 10% on China. Retaliatory tariffs have already been implemented by Canada and China, with Mexico expected to follow suit soon. ๐ŸŒฑ
    Risk of Export Cancellations Due to Tariffs ๐Ÿ“‰
    US farmers are facing the risk of significant export cancellations due to rising tariffs and trade uncertainty. About 12 million tons of US crops, particularly corn and soybeans, could be at risk. Mexico, the largest importer of US corn, still has 7.8 million tons of corn unshipped. Additionally, soybean sales to China may be deferred or canceled, although the impact on soybeans is expected to be smaller. ๐ŸŒฝ๐ŸŒฑ
    President Trump Urges Farmers to Remain Patient Amid Tariff Challenges ๐Ÿ’ผ๐ŸŒพ
    In his address to Congress, President Trump urged farmers to stay patient as tariffs take a toll on the agricultural industry. Despite some early gains in corn and soybean markets, retaliatory tariffs have caused significant losses. However, the initial portion of the $30 billion in federal farm aid is set to be distributed soon, offering some relief. ๐Ÿ’ธ
    Russia's Wheat Crop in Better Condition than Expected ๐ŸŒพโ„๏ธ
    Russia's wheat crop is reported to be in better condition than initially expected, following a mild winter with warmer temperatures and reduced snowfall. In December, over 37% of Russia's winter crops were in poor condition, but the cropโ€™s improved status has led to fewer production and export concerns. ๐ŸŒพ
    US Dollar Drops Amid Tariff Concerns ๐Ÿ’ต๐Ÿ“‰
    The US dollar dropped to a three-month low on Wednesday, following the imposition of tariffs on Mexico and Canada. This decline, which saw a 1% fall in the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index, signals growing concerns over a potential global trade war and its effect on economic growth. The dollarโ€™s status as a safe-haven currency is also under scrutiny due to shifting global political landscapes. ๐ŸŒ
    US Ethanol Stocks Near Record Levels ๐Ÿ“Š
    Ethanol stocks in the US remain near historically high levels, with a slight decrease from the previous week but still up 4.8% compared to last year. Weekly ethanol output increased by 1.1%, with gasoline demand rising 5% for the week, though still lower than last year. Ethanol production continues to play a significant role in the US biofuel industry. โ›ฝ


    Grains Recover + Lutnick Talks "Scaled Back" Tariffs Mar 05, 2025
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    US Corn and Soybean Futures Drop Amid Trade Tensions ๐Ÿšœ๐Ÿ’ฅ
    Corn and soybean futures plummeted on Tuesday as trade tensions intensified. Corn futures hit their lowest levels of the year, while soybean prices fell below $10 per bushel. The drop was fueled by the US imposing steep tariffs on Mexico, Canada, and China, triggering swift retaliations from Ottawa and Beijing. Thereโ€™s concern that rising trade tensions could push the global economy toward a recession, reducing demand for commodities. Corn prices have dropped 14% since mid-February, compounded by better crop prospects from South America. ๐Ÿ“‰
    Potential Tariff Relief for Canada and Mexico ๐Ÿค
    Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick has signaled that President Trump might offer tariff relief for Canada and Mexico, provided they comply with the USMCA trade agreement. While a full tariff removal is unlikely, adjustments may be on the table. Both sides are in talks, with a potential deal expected soon. Bipartisan pressure is mounting on Trump to reconsider these tariffs due to their potential impact on consumer prices and the agricultural sector. ๐ŸŒพ
    Mexico to Announce Retaliatory Tariffs on Sunday ๐Ÿ‡ฒ๐Ÿ‡ฝ
    Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum has confirmed that Mexico will impose retaliatory tariffs in response to Trumpโ€™s 25% tariffs on Mexican imports. The delay in the announcement reflects Mexico's efforts to avoid a trade war. Mexico's retaliatory measures are expected to hurt U.S. consumers and businesses, particularly since 80% of Mexico's exports go to the U.S., which accounted for over $800 billion in trade last year. ๐ŸŒŽ
    US Economic Activity Could Plunge Due to Trade War ๐Ÿ“‰
    The Atlanta Fedโ€™s GDPNow model has revised its first-quarter growth forecast down to a 2.8% decline, a sharp shift from a previous estimate of 2.3% growth. This marks a drastic change from the 4% growth forecast just one month ago. These gloomy projections reflect growing concerns over the economic impact of the escalating trade war, and the US stock market has taken a hit, erasing post-inauguration gains. ๐Ÿ“‰
    US Farmer Sentiment Rises Despite Trade War Concerns ๐ŸŒพ๐Ÿ’ก
    US farmer sentiment increased in February, with Purdue University's Ag Economy Barometer Index rising to 152. This boost was driven by higher crop and livestock prices and anticipation of federal farm aid payments. Despite optimism about the future, trade policy remains a major concern, with nearly half of farmers believing a trade war is likely or very likely. ๐ŸŒฑ
    USDA Reports Flash Sales of Wheat and Soybean Oil ๐ŸŒพ๐Ÿ’ฐ
    US exporters secured two flash sales on Tuesday: 130,000mt (5 million bushels) of white wheat to South Korea for the 2024/2025 marketing year, and 20,000mt of soybean oil to unknown destinations. These sales reflect continued demand for US agricultural products despite the ongoing trade tensions. ๐Ÿ“ฆ


    Grain Market Bloodbath: China Tariffs US Soybeans Mar 04, 2025
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    0:00 Trump Confirms Tariffs
    1:28 China Tariffs US Soybean Imports
    4:51 US Ag Import Tariffs?
    8:31 Brazil / Argentina Update
    9:47 India Wheat Problems
    11:07 Grain Shipments
    12:11 Flash Sale
    Tariffs Take Effect Today: Canada, Mexico, and China Impacted ๐ŸŒŽ
    Tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico are now in place, with President Trump announcing a 25% tariff on both countries. These tariffs, along with a 10% increase in tariffs on Chinese imports, have sparked concerns, sending the stock market down. The S&P 500 dropped 1.8%, Nasdaq fell 2.6%, and Dow Jones slid 1.5%. The grain markets also saw selling pressure in response. ๐Ÿ“‰
    China Announces Tariffs on US Agricultural Products ๐ŸŒพ
    China has imposed 10-15% tariffs on a range of US agricultural products, including chicken, wheat, corn, cotton, soybeans, sorghum, pork, beef, fruits, vegetables, and dairy. The new tariffs will take effect on March 10th, further escalating trade tensions. Canada has also announced retaliatory tariffs, while Mexico has signaled patience without formal retaliation yet. ๐Ÿ„๐ŸŒฝ
    Trump's Agricultural Tariffs Starting April 2nd ๐Ÿ…
    President Trump plans to implement tariffs on agricultural imports starting April 2nd as part of reciprocal tariffs targeting US trading partners. These tariffs could impact fruits, vegetables, and nuts, as well as used cooking oil from China for biofuel production. The USDA has forecasted a record agricultural trade deficit of $49 billion for the year. ๐Ÿ‹
    Brazilโ€™s Soybean Harvest Ahead of Last Yearโ€™s Pace ๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ท
    Brazil's soybean harvest is slightly ahead of last year, with 50% of the crop harvested as of last Thursday. However, concerns persist in states like Rio Grande do Sul, where hot and dry conditions are causing crop losses. AgRural has reduced its soybean outlook for the season to 168.2mmt, down from 171mmt. ๐ŸŒพ
    India Seeks Relief on Wheat Import Tax ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ณ
    Indiaโ€™s wheat millers are pushing for the removal or reduction of a 40% import tax as the nationโ€™s stockpiles have fallen to the lowest levels in almost 16 years. Reduced domestic production and the governmentโ€™s release of reserves have contributed to the shortage, with hot and dry weather forecasts adding further concerns about this seasonโ€™s crop. ๐ŸŒพ๐Ÿ”ฅ
    US Corn Shipments Strong Despite Tariff Concerns ๐ŸŒฝ
    US corn shipments were near the upper end of expectations last week, with 1.4mmt (53mil bushels) inspected for export. Soybean shipments were lower than expected, while wheat shipments showed a slight increase. Despite ongoing tariff threats, Mexico continues to be a top buyer of US corn this season. ๐Ÿšข
    Flash Sale of Corn to Mexico ๐Ÿ’ฅ
    US exporters sold 114,000mt (4mil bushels) of corn to Mexico for delivery during the 2024/2025 marketing year. Mexico remains one of the top buyers of US corn, even amidst the threat of tariffs. ๐ŸŒฝ


    China Targets US Ag Imports + Rollins Confirms Direct Payments Mar 03, 2025
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    China's Potential Retaliation Against US Agricultural Imports ๐ŸŒพ
    China is reportedly considering targeting US agricultural imports, including soybeans, in response to President Trumpโ€™s 10% tariff threat. China has been the largest buyer of US soybeans, accounting for 47% of US export commitments. With most of this year's sales already shipped, unshipped sales and new crop sales could be at risk. ๐Ÿ“‰
    $30 Billion in Federal Farm Assistance Coming Soon ๐Ÿ’ฐ
    The USDA is preparing to release the first portion of the $30 billion in farm assistance, with the first $10 billion expected in the coming weeks. This support is designed to help offset poor markets and provide disaster relief. Secretary Brooke Rollins emphasized the urgency of delivering these funds efficiently, with a hard deadline of March 21st for payments. โณ
    Improved Crop Insurance for Corn ๐ŸŒฝ, Higher Risk for Soybeans ๐ŸŒฑ
    The USDA's crop insurance for 2025 offers improved coverage for corn, with a spring price of $4.70 per bushel, up 4 cents from last year. Soybean coverage is more at risk, with a projected price drop to $10.54, down $1.01. Cornโ€™s stronger coverage could lead to a significant increase in corn planting this season. ๐Ÿ“Š
    Funds Trim Net-Long Position in Corn ๐Ÿ›‘
    CFTC data shows that large money managers reduced their net-long position in the corn market by 26k contracts last week. This selling trend is reflected in soybean and wheat markets as well, signaling a possible shift in market sentiment. The funds are now estimated to hold a net-long position of only 250-260k contracts in corn. ๐Ÿ’น
    China Tightens Grain Regulations ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ณ
    China plans to strengthen regulations around grain purchases and storage to prevent volatility and ensure price stability. This move is aimed at further bolstering stockpiles of both corn and wheat, possibly through increased imports or purchases of domestic supplies. ๐Ÿ“‰
    Russian Attack on Odesa Port โš”๏ธ
    A Russian missile strike on the Black Sea port of Odesa damaged a civilian vessel and port infrastructure, injuring workers. This follows President Trumpโ€™s recent criticisms of Ukrainian President Zelenskyy. The attack occurred just before the expected signing of a minerals agreement, which was ultimately not finalized. ๐Ÿ”ฅ
    Flash Sale of Soybean Oil ๐Ÿ›’
    US exporters sold 20,000mt of soybean oil for delivery in 2024/2025, marking the first flash sale of soybean oil for 2025. This signals strong export interest in US soybean oil amidst global market uncertainty. ๐Ÿ›ข๏ธ


    94 Million Acres of Corn: Fair or Foul?? Feb 28, 2025
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    0:00 94mil Corn Acres?
    7:34 New Tariff Update
    9:34 Southwest Airlines Ditches SAF Plans
    13:30 Drought Update
    16:07 Export Sales
    USDA Projects Record Corn Crop ๐ŸŒฝ
    The USDA anticipates a significant increase in corn acreage this season, with farmers expected to plant 94 million acres, up 3.8% from last year. Cornโ€™s favorable prices are a key driver of this increase, and the total corn production is projected to hit a record 15.6 billion bushels. However, soybean acreage is expected to decline by 3.6%, with 84 million acres planted, resulting in the fourth-largest soybean crop on record at 4.4 billion bushels. Wheat acreage is expected to rise by 2%, reaching 47 million acres. ๐Ÿ“Š
    Trump's Tariff Plan Escalates ๐Ÿ’ฅ
    President Trump announced an additional 10% tariff on China and confirmed that the previously planned 25% tariffs on Canadian and Mexican imports will go into effect on March 4. These tariffs are aimed at addressing trade imbalances and the flow of fentanyl into the US. While the tariffs are set to hit a range of imports, including steel, itโ€™s still unclear whether corn and soybeans will be directly impacted by retaliatory measures from Canada or Mexico. ๐Ÿ›‘๐ŸŒ
    Southwest Airlines Scales Back on SAF ๐ŸŒฑโœˆ๏ธ
    Southwest Airlines is cutting back its commitment to sustainable aviation fuel (SAF). The airline laid off employees and terminated its newly-formed team focused on cleaner fuels. SAF, which is derived from feedstocks like corn husks, has become an important part of efforts to reduce climate pollution, but it represents less than 0.1% of Southwest's total jet fuel use. The airline had previously committed to using 10% SAF by 2030, but its decision signals challenges in reaching that goal. ๐Ÿšซ๐ŸŒ
    Drought Conditions Worsen Across US ๐ŸŒž
    The USDA's weekly drought monitor shows worsening conditions across much of the Corn Belt, with 40% of the region affected by drought. In particular, the percentage of US corn areas impacted by drought rose by 11%, while soybean areas saw a 10% increase in drought conditions. The High Plains also experienced drought expansion, notably in southern Kansas and western Oklahoma. ๐ŸŒพ๐Ÿ’ง
    Corn Export Sales Fall Short ๐Ÿ“‰
    US corn export sales were disappointing last week, coming in at 794,700mt (31 million bushels), down 45% from the previous week. This is the lowest sales number in weeks, with Mexico being the largest buyer. Similarly, wheat export sales were also below expectations, while soybean sales saw a slight uptick. These weak sales could impact the overall US agricultural market in the coming weeks. ๐Ÿ“ฆ๐Ÿšซ


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