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    Business

    Forward Guidance

    The laws of macro investing are being re-written, and investors who fail to adapt to the rapidly changing monetary environment will struggle to keep pace. Felix Jauvin interviews the brightest minds in finance about which asset classes they think will thrive in the financial future that they envision.

    Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc
    Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance 
    Subscribe on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@ForwardGuidanceBW
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    Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance
    Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+nSVVTQITWSdiYTIx

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    Copyright: © 384141 Blockworks 2021

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    Latest Episodes:
    The Banking System's Guardian Angel You've Never Heard Of | Michael Ericson & Dan Siciliano on Federal Home Loan Banks Aug 18, 2023
    Show notes

    Few outside the banking world grasp the true importance of the Federal Home Loan Banks (FHLBs), whose collective loans to U.S. banks outpace the Federal Reserve’s by more than 10 to 1 as of summer 2023. Today Jack speaks to Michael Ericson, President of the Chicago Federal Home Loan Bank, and Dan Siciliano, chair of the Council of FHLBs and independent director of the San Francisco FHLB, about the FHLB’s mission, capitalization, and implicit government guarantee. Ericson and Siciliano argue that the declining advances from FHLBs to U.S. banks since May 2023 may indicate an easing of liquidity pressures in the U.S. banking system. Filmed on August 15, 2023.


    Today’s interview is brought to you by YCharts. For a free trial and 15% discount on new memberships, visit https://go.ycharts.com/forward-guidance


    Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96

    Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance

    Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_

    ____

    Timecodes:

    (00:00) Introduction

    (00:21) About Federal Home Loan Bank (FHLB) System

    (21:08) FHLB Is Much, Much Less Centralized Than The Federal Reserve

    (25:47) San Francisco FHLB Advances To Now-Defunct West Coast Banks

    (34:48) FHLB & Affordable Housing

    (38:07) What Caused Banks' Scramble For Cash in March 2023?

    (46:21) FHLB Implict Government Guarantee

    (57:24) How Have FHLBs Never Lost Any Money On Advances To Banks?

    (01:06:58) Interest Rate Hedging

    (01:08:31) Liquidity Issues In U.S. Banking System Have "Calmed Down Quite A Bit"

    (01:15:16) Capital Stock Of Federal Home Loan Banks

    (01:24:40) Will Regulators Attempt To Curb FHLB Lending To Non-Mission-Oriented Institutions?

    (01:28:00) Potential New FHFA Regulation of FHLB

    ____

    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.




    Ivy Zelman: Housing Market Downturn Isn't Over Aug 15, 2023
    Show notes

    Ivy Zelman, founder and CEO of Zelman & Associates, joins Forward Guidance to share her outlook on the U.S. housing market. Filmed on August 8, 2023.

    Today’s interview is sponsored by Blockfills, a crypto trading solutions and financial technology firm.

    ____

    To learn more about Zelman & Associates, email ted@zelmanassociates.com

    Follow Ivy Zelman on Twitter https://twitter.com/Ivy_Zelman

    Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96

    Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance

    Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_

    ____

    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.


    Zelman & Associates 2023 Virtual Housing Summit:

    Our 16th Annual Housing Summit continues to provide rich market content, lively panel discussions and fresh perspectives on the housing ecosystem that is unique to Zelman & Associates. Our panel discussions have C-Suite executives moderated by our elite team. We break down content, providing you with actionable insights that will help navigate the current market uncertainty and on into 2024. Zelman's ultimate goal (as always) was to provide you with the most accurate, in-depth and differentiated data and information to help you be successful in your endeavors.

    Registration Cost: $850.00

    Special Discount: Email Kim Gray – kim@zelmanassociates.com to register and mention this podcast for a 25% discount!

    Housing Summit Event Page:

    https://www.meetmax.com/sched/event_96353/conference_home.html?bank_access=0&event_id=96353

    Housing Summit Agenda:

    https://www.meetmax.com/sched/event_96353/__agenda_cp.html

    Why Attend Our Housing Summit:

    • Deemed The Best Housing-Related Conference of Year
    • Attended by over 1,000 Institutional Investors and Industry Executives
    • Thought-Provoking Panels Across The Housing Mosaic
    • Corporate Access for Investors and Unique Networking Opportunities
    • A Who’s Who of Housing with all of the major public and private prevailing thought leaders in attendance

    About Zelman & Associates:

    Extensive macro, sector and company-specific equity research, exclusive industry surveys, stock recommendations, and insights leveraging our constant flow of real-time data. Our insights help connect the dots between all aspects of the housing mosaic to inform strategies and decisions rooted in confidence. Serving institutional investors, corporations, private equity, fixed income, private investors, RIAs and more.

    https://www.zelmanassociates.com/

    Timecodes:

    (00:00) Introduction

    (00:28) Resilience Of The U.S. Housing Market

    (09:28) Comparing the 2020 Housing Boom to the Early 2000s Housing Boom

    (13:43) Commercial Real Estate: Multifamily Housing (Apartment Buildings)

    (20:58) Shelter's Contribution To Overall Consumer Price Inflation

    (22:35) Housing's Impact On Banking System

    (25:53) Forecasts For Single-Family Housing

    (32:20) Supply of Housing

    (38:53) Outlook on Homebuilding Industry

    (43:42) Negative Outlook On Home Improvement Industry

    (48:22) Market For Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS)

    (51:06) The Fed Was Supporting The Market With Free Money

    (52:37) Macro Outlook


    Fitch's U.S Debt Downgrade Was Justified | Danielle DiMartino Booth Aug 13, 2023
    Show notes

    Danielle DiMartino Booth CEO & Chief Strategist, QI Research joins Forward Guidance for a special episode from Camp Kotok.


    We discuss the past 3 years in both the economy and markets, Fitch's recent AAA downgrade on U.S debt & the lingering stress in commercial real estate. To hear all this & more, you'll have to tune in!

    --

    Today’s interview is brought to you by YCharts. For a free trial and 15% discount on new memberships, visit https://go.ycharts.com/forward-guidance

    --

    Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96

    Follow Danielle on Twitter https://twitter.com/DiMartinoBooth

    Follow Cumberland Advisors on Twitter https://twitter.com/CumberlandADV

    Follow Global Interdependence Center on Twitter https://twitter.com/Interdependence

    Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance

    Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_

    --

    Timecodes:

    (00:00) Introduction

    (00:51) Fitch's AAA Debt Downgrade

    (07:00) S&P's Debt Downgrade vs Fitch's Debt Downgrade

    (11:41) We Took MMT On A Test Drive & It Crashed Into The Wall

    (15:06) The Path Ahead For U.S Debt Issuance

    (19:58) Commercial Real Estate

    (23:19) Where Are We In The Cycle?

    (26:25) Oppenheimer Or Barbie?

    --

    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.


    Rate Cuts May Not End Fed's Quantitative Tightening | Former Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart Aug 12, 2023
    Show notes

    Dennis Lockhart, Former President and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, joins Forward Guidance for a special interview to discuss one of the most important topics of the past 3 years... inflation.

    Lockhart outlines how the Fed decided on their 2% inflation target, the impact of higher interest rates in the Fed's current inflation fight & why the Fed has now shifted to their quantitative tightening policy stance after years of quantitative easing. To hear all this & more, you'll have to tune in!

    --

    Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96

    Follow Cumberland Advisors on Twitter https://twitter.com/CumberlandADV

    Follow Global Interdependence Center on Twitter https://twitter.com/Interdependence

    Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance

    Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_

    --

    Timecodes:

    (00:00) Introduction

    (00:23) Inflation

    (05:08) The Impact Of Higher Interest Rates

    (08:00) The Fed Cannot Influence Fiscal Policy

    (10:58) How The Fed Reached Their 2% Target

    (16:55) Could Secular Inflation Forces Change The Fed's 2% Target?

    (21:11) The Shift From Quantitative Easing To Quantitative Tightening

    --

    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.


    Inside Camp Kotok | David Kotok on “Disastrous and Debilitating” Effect Of Debt Ceiling on Bond Markets Aug 11, 2023
    Show notes

    David Kotok, chief investment officer and co-founder of Cumberland Advisors, welcomes Jack Farley to “Camp Kotok” with an interview. Kotok explains the origins of “Camp Kotok” and makes the case that, contrary to popular understanding, Fitch’s recent downgrading of U.S. debt is, in fact, a big deal. Filmed on August 5, 2023.


    David Kotok's analysis on the debt ceiling: https://www.cumber.com/market-commentary/cost-debt-ceiling-crisis


    About Camp Kotok: https://www.cumber.com/about/camp-kotok

    Follow David Kotok on Twitter https://twitter.com/DavidKotokGIC

    Follow Cumberland Advisors on Twitter https://twitter.com/CumberlandADV

    Follow Global Interdependence Center on Twitter https://twitter.com/Interdependence

    Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96

    Follow Dave Nadig on Twitter https://twitter.com/DaveNadig

    Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance

    Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_


    Big thank you to David Nadig of VettaFi for supplying the drone footage: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wT1H7or-sHo

    ___

    Timecodes:

    (00:00) Introduction

    (00:10) The History Of Camp Kotok

    (11:11) Fitch's Downgrade Of U.S. Treasury Debt

    (20:56) 2023 Debt Ceiling Drama Imposed Real Cost On Borrowing Rates

    (28:58) Alternatives To The Global Dollar System

    (31:29) Anecdote From Municipal Bond Market

    (35:46) Will Interests Rates Go Even Higher?

    (38:32) The Federal Reserve's Assistance To The U.S. Banking Sector In 2023


    Rumors Of The Death of Chinese Economy’s Have Been Greatly Exaggerated | Leland Miller Aug 11, 2023
    Show notes

    Leland Miller, founder of China Beige Book, sits down with Jack Farley at Camp Kotok to give a brief update on the state of the Chinese economy. Miller argues that, cyclically, Chinese growth is actually better than many economists believe. However, he reiterates his view that from a secular point of view, he expects Chinese growth to continue to encounter major headwinds. Recorded on August 5, 2023.

    Follow Leland Miller on Twitter https://twitter.com/ChinaBeigeBook

    Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96

    Follow Dave Nadig on Twitter https://twitter.com/DaveNadig

    Follow David Kotok on Twitter https://twitter.com/DavidKotokGIC

    Follow Cumberland Advisors on Twitter https://twitter.com/CumberlandADV

    Follow Global Interdependence Center on Twitter https://twitter.com/Interdependence

    Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance

    Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_

    Big thank you to David Nadig of VettaFi for supplying the drone footage: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wT1H7or-sHo

    ___

    Timecodes:

    (04:32) Chinese Real Estate Is An Absolute Mess

    (06:09) China's Economic Growth Model Has Changed

    (09:11) China's Economic Is Cyclically Better, But Securlarly Worse, Than Many Expect


    The Fed’s Inflation Fight Isn’t Over | Jim Bianco & Samuel Rines (Camp Kotok) Aug 10, 2023
    Show notes

    Jim Bianco, founder and CEO of Bianco Research, and Samuel Rines, managing director at Corbu LLC, join Jack Farley on beautiful Leen’s Lodge for the first week of “Camp Kotok.”

    Follow Jim Bianco on Twitter https://twitter.com/biancoresearch

    Follow Samuel Rines on Twitter https://twitter.com/SamuelRines

    Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96

    Follow Dave Nadig on Twitter https://twitter.com/DaveNadig

    Follow David Kotok on Twitter https://twitter.com/DavidKotokGIC

    Follow Cumberland Advisors on Twitter https://twitter.com/CumberlandADV

    Follow Global Interdependence Center on Twitter https://twitter.com/Interdependence

    Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance

    Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_

    Big thank you to David Nadig of VettaFi for supplying the drone footage: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wT1H7or-sHo

    ___

    Timecodes:

    (00:00) Introduction

    (08:22) The Bond Market

    (12:45) I'm In The No-Landing Camp - Jim Bianco

    (17:40) Most Of The Effects Of The Fed's Hikes Have Already Been Felt

    (18:55) Forward Guidance Is A Problem - Samuel Rines


    The Sovereign Debt Spiral | James Lavish Aug 01, 2023
    Show notes

    James Lavish, hedge fund veteran, managing director of the Bitcoin Opportunity Fund, and author of “The Informationist” newsletter, joins Forward Guidance to share his vision for the future of money.

    Today’s interview is sponsored by Blockfills, a crypto trading solutions and financial technology firm.

    ____

    Follow James Lavish on Twitter https://twitter.com/jameslavish

    Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96

    Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance

    Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_

    ____

    Timestamps:

    (00:00) Introduction

    (03:52) The "Disease" Of Debt

    (16:03) The Fiscal Debt Spiral

    (28:25) Hard Assets As A Standard For Global Money

    (42:25) Valuing Bitcoin As A Call Option

    (49:22) Imagining A Deflationary Monetary System

    (58:36) Why Just Bitcoin?

    (01:03:51) Lavish's Bitcoin Opportunity Fund

    (01:09:47) Lavish: A Lot of Crypto Projects Are, In Fact, Securities

    (01:11:44) The Economy & The Federal Reserve

    (01:15:04) Tether

    (01:17:15) Optimal Macro Environment For Bitcoin

    ____

    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.


    The Great Liquidity Debate | Michael Howell & Andy Constan Jul 27, 2023
    Show notes

    Michael Howell of Crossborder Capital and Andy Constan of Damped Spring Advisors join Forward Guidance to discuss and debate all things liquidity.

    Today’s interview is brought to you by YCharts. For a free trial and 15% discount on new memberships, visit https://go.ycharts.com/forward-guidanceFollow Michael Howell on Twitter https://twitter.com/crossbordercap

    ___

    Follow Andy Constan on Twitter https://twitter.com/dampedspring

    Follow 2 Gray Beards on Twitter https://twitter.com/2GrayBeards

    Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96

    Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance

    Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_More info on Damped Spring Advisors: https://dampedspring.com/

    More info on Crossborder Capital: http://www.crossbordercapital.com/

    Michael Howell’s Substack: https://capitalwars.substack.com/

    ____

    Timecodes:

    (00:00) // Defining Global Liquidity

    (04:07) // Only Looking At Federal Reserve Liquidity Is A Big, Big Mistake

    (11:23) // Why Has Michael Howell's Global Liquidity Index (GLI) Been Rising?

    (18:49) // The U.S. Treasury's Issuance Composition Has Been A Huge Factor For Liquidity

    (31:36) // Is This "Shadow Quantitative Easing (QE)"?

    (44:06) // Inverted Yield Curve & Repo

    (53:19) // Michael Howell's Bull Case For Stocks

    (59:10) // The "Short All Assets" Trade

    (01:07:43) // Will The Fed Return To Outright Quantitative Easing (QE)?

    (01:11:41) // Is Liquidity Going To Expand? Yes, It Is - Michael Howell

    (01:17:44) // Final Points On Term Premia, Fiscal Arithmatic, And The Dollar

    ____

    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.




    Julian Brigden: Markets "On A Knife's Edge" After July Fed Meeting Jul 26, 2023
    Show notes

    Julian Brigden, co-founder of MI2 Partners, joins Forward Guidance to share his outlook for the challenges facing the Federal Reserve. Brigden argues that nominal economic growth in the U.S. remains too high, and that inflation is at risk of re-accelerating after its steady fall over the past year.

    Brigden expects that the rally in the U.S. stock market is fueling economic growth and in particular is preventing the increase in unemployment that normally accompanies the Fed’s interest rate hikes. As such, Brigden argues that markets are perched on a “knife’s edge” and that either stocks must halt their advance and start to decline, or bond must sell off drastically and the Federal Reserve must continue to hike interest rates.

    Filmed on July 26, 2023, shortly after Fed Chair Jay Powell’s press conference at the close of the meeting of the Fed’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Brigden is also co-host of “Insider Talks” on Real Vision Pro.

    Today’s interview is sponsored by Blockfills, a crypto trading solutions and financial technology firm.

    Follow Julian Brigden on Twitter https://twitter.com/JulianMI2

    Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96

    Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance

    Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_

    --

    Timecodes:

    (00:00) Introduction

    (00:30) Something Has To Crack

    (11:01) Hyperfinancialization Means Employment Will Stay High As Long As Stocks Keep Going Up

    (22:09) Recession Risk

    (26:41) What's More Likely, A Fall in Stocks Or A Fall In Bonds?

    (32:34) Commercial Real Estate (CRE) Comparison To Subprime Mortgages In 2007

    (36:17) Is The Bond Market Still The "Smart Money"?

    (40:30) Is Liquidity Rising Or Falling?

    (43:26) Inverted Yield Curves Predict Recessions... Right? (Maybe No Longer!)

    (45:40) U.S. Housing Market

    (49:32) Julian's Bear Case For The U.S. Dollar

    (01:06:47) German Economy Is Very Sluggish

    (01:08:34) China

    (01:14:41) Will Japanese Interest Rates Be At Zero Forever?

    ____

    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.


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