Forward Guidance

Latest Episodes:

Just How Interest Rate Sensitive Is The U.S. Economy? | Jeremy Schwartz & Professor Jeremy Seigel (Jack’s Guest Appearance On Behind The Markets Podcast) Sep 12, 2023

Show notes

This is Jack’s guest appearance on the Behind The Markets Podcast with Jeremy Schwartz, Chief Investment Officer of WisdomTree, and Jeremy Siegel, renowned finance professor at Wharton and senior economist to WisdomTree. The trio tackle the labor market, the stock market, the interest rate sensitivity of the three segments of the U.S. economy (households, businesses, and the government), as well as the banking system, which Jack shares his thoughts on in some depth. Recorded on September 1st, 2023.

Original episode on Behind The Markets: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/behind-the-markets-podcast-jack-farley/id1194707802?i=1000626532544

Jeremy Siegel’s book, “Stocks for the Long Run 5/E: The Definitive Guide to Financial Market Returns & Long-Term Investment Strategies”: https://www.amazon.com/Stocks-Long-Run-Definitive-Investment/dp/0071800514

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Timecodes:

(00:00) Introduction

(04:58) Money Supply & Other Monetary Aggregates

(07:21) Bond Market

(08:42) Jack's Question For Professor Siegel About Non-Farm Payrolls

(12:30) Professor Siegel's Short-Term Modestly Bullish View On Stocks

(15:29) Stocks And The Economy

(19:39) Interest Rate Sensitivity Of American Households

(28:24) Jack's Views On Banking System

Milton Berg: The Stock Market Is In Trouble Sep 08, 2023

Show notes

When quiet legend of technical analysis Milton Berg first appeared on Forward Guidance in January 2023, he predicted a scorching stock bull market. Now that his call has aged very well, he returns to the program urging caution. Although his model portfolio is 100% long based on short-term indicators, he expects that any move higher will be temporary and that the bull market will end soon. Filmed on September 5, 2023.

Today’s interview is brought to you by YCharts. For a free trial and 15% discount on new memberships, visit https://go.ycharts.com/forward-guidanceFollow Milton Berg on Twitter https://twitter.com/BergMilton

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Timecodes:

(00:00) Introduction

(00:09) Reviewing Milton Berg's Successful Bullish Call in January 2023

(07:23) Market Outlook Now

(20:00) "This Market Is In A Lot Of Trouble

(22:16) Eight Reasons To Doubt That This Bull Market Will Continue

(28:05) Banking Index Often Bottoms Before General Stock Market Bull Move

(30:14) High Interest Rates Are A Deflationary Force

(36:26) Stock Market Not As Healthy As It Seems

(56:16) Market Cycle Dates

(01:05:54) Milton Berg No Longer Bullish On China

(01:08:17) Anticipating the End Of This Rally

(01:18:35) Bullish Call On Bank Index

(01:24:13) Stocks Will Likely Decline Below Low Of October 2022, Argues Berg

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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Wave of U.S. Treasury Issuance Puts Pressure On Bond Market | Prometheus Macro Sep 06, 2023

Show notes

On todays episode, Aahan Menon Founder of Prometheus Research joins the show for a discussion on his current macro outlook looking at the economy, growth, markets & liquidity.

With a wave of U.S Treasury issuance on the horizon, Aahan explains why he now sees a perfect opportunity to be short stocks & bonds and he expects further headwinds for assets in this environment. To hear Aahan explain why, and much more, you'll have to tune in!

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Use code GUIDANCE30 to get 30% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023

Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/

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Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos

Timecodes:

(00:00) Introduction

(00:27) Progressing Through A Tightening Cycle

(07:57) How To Measure Liquidity

(15:51) A Wave Of U.S Treasury Issuance Is On The Horizon

(24:09) Is The Fed Behind The Curve?

(29:10) Inflation

(38:25) Credit Is Contracting, Just Not Enough... Yet

(43:17) When To Shift From Short Stocks & Bonds

(50:44) Private vs Public Sector Liquidity

(59:41) Prometheus Research

"Credit Shock" In Commercial Real Estate | John Toohig, Victor Calanog, and Thomas LaSalvia Sep 05, 2023

Show notes

Today’s interview is a deep-dive into commercial real estate (CRE), an asset class which includes office, multifamily housing (apartments), hotels, data centers, malls, and more.

Jack welcomes John Toohig, Head of Whole Loan Trading at Raymond James, Thomas LaSalvia, Head of Commercial Real Estate Economics at Moody's Analytics, and Victor Calanog, Manulife’s Managing Director & Global Head of Research and Strategy, Real Estate Private Markets, for a wide-ranging discussions on the challenges and opportunities within CRE, with a focus on how the recent interest rate shock has impacted property values, cash flows, interest expense, and other key metrics in the CRE world. Filmed on August 30, 2023.

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Follow Moody’s CRE Insights: https://cre.moodysanalytics.com/insights/

Moody’s CRE piece on CMBS Office Loan Maturity: https://cre.moodysanalytics.com/insights/cre-news/ma-cre-office-loan-maturity-monitor-office-payoffs-significantly-lag-other-property-types/

Timecodes:

(00:00) Introduction

(08:15) Payment Shock For Real Estate Funded With Debt Before The Fed Raised Rates

(11:02 Maturity Defaults Are On The Rise

(13:25) Office Sector Is By Far Facing The Biggest Challenges Vs. Other CRE Compenents

(19:22) Who Owns The Equity In These CRE Deals?

(22:25) Gap Between Private Valuations and Public Valuations

(25:51) Higher For Longer Is Exponentially Increasing Debt Costs For Real Estate

(30:03) State Of The Secondary Market For Real Estate Loans

(35:14) Cash Flows Matter More Than "Loan-To-Value"

(40:08) There's A Hesitation Right Now For Institutions To Take Losses

(42:27) Odds Of A True Recessions vs. A "Slow-Cession" (and Soft Landing & No Landing)

(45:35) How Common Is Interest Rate Hedging Among Leveraged Real Estate Investors?

(48:01) Slowdown In New Originations For CRE Loans

(52:46) Fundamnetals Of Multifamily (Apartment Buildings)

(01:01:05) Negative Leverage In The MultiFamily Market

(01:07:31) Insurance Costs Are Skyrocketing

(01:10:54) Retail (example: Malls) And Hospitality (example: Hotels)

(01:16:45) China

(01:20:28) Closing Thoughts On U.S. Banking System

(01:22:52) Conclusion

David Rosenberg: A Recession Is Coming In The Next 6 Months Aug 31, 2023

Show notes

On today's episode of Forward Guidance, David Rosenberg Founder and President of Rosenberg Research & Associates joins the show to discuss the continuing recessionary pressures he sees building in the economy.

Preparing for a recession within the next six months, David walks through prior Fed tightening cycles, the lagged effects of fiscal stimulus that are now dwindling and the incoming credit crunch that will materialize towards the end of 2023 into 2024. To hear all this & more, you'll have to tune in!

Today’s interview is brought to you by YCharts. For a free trial and 15% discount on new memberships, visit https://go.ycharts.com/forward-guidance

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Timecodes:

(00:00) Introduction

(00:37) The Big Story Is What Happens Next Year

(09:27) Questioning The Higher For Longer Narrative

(20:20) What Causes A Recession?

(24:56) How Sensitive Is The Economy To Higher Interest Rates?

(35:34) We Haven't Felt The Full Impact Of Higher Interest Rates Yet

(42:02) The Politics Of Deficit Spending

(47:01) There Are Three Stages To Every Bear Market

(59:37) How Deep Will The Credit Crunch Be?

(01:06:56) Fitch's AAA Downgrade

(01:09:41) The Fed Has Overtightened

(01:14:12) The Manufacturing Cycle & Unemployment

(01:16:00) Where Will The Unemployment Rate Peak?

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Vincent Deluard: The “Magic Money” That Prevented Recession Is About To Disappear Aug 29, 2023

Show notes

In fall 2022 when most economists were anticipating an imminent recession, Vincent Deluard made the bold call that several forms of “stealth stimulus” would prevent the U.S. from entering a recession in 2023. Now Deluard, director of Global Macro at StoneX, returns to Forward Guidance to share why these hidden forms of government stimulus (social security cost of living adjustment, tax-bracket adjustment, etc.) will be less of a factor in 2024, and as such, Deluard expects the U.S. economy to slow. Deluard reaffirms his long-term inflationary view and explains why he is bearish U.S. stocks, and prefers international stocks. Filmed on August 21, 2023.

Today’s interview is sponsored by Blockfills, a crypto trading solutions and financial technology firm.

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Timecodes:

(00:00) Introduction

(00:47) The "Stealth Stimulus" Is Over

(13:15) How Much Tightening Effect Of Higher Rates Has Already Been Felt?

(18:55) Making Sense of 2023 Stock Market Rally

(20:59) The Second Wave Of Inflation

(26:40) Is Central Banks' Inflation Target Unnecessary?

(41:13) Vincent's Bull Case For Non-U.S. Assets

(46:49) China

(49:52) Europe

(53:29) Japan

(55:35) Sector Analysis: Healthcare, Tech, Energy, Financials

(59:14) Bearish View On U.S. Stocks

(01:02:25) Bank Outlook After Collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB)

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Business Cycle Slowdown Will Intensify Into Recession | Mike Singleton Aug 28, 2023

Show notes

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Use code GUIDANCE30 to get 30% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin:

https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/

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Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter:

https://rb.gy/5weeywMarket commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos

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Timecodes:

(00:00) Introduction

(00:19) Singleton's Macro Process

(12:47) The Excess Savings Debate

(17:06) U.S. Economy Headed For Severe Recession In 2023

(19:19) The Best Time To Buy Bonds

(24:06) Unemployment Rate To Go As High As 7%

(48:52) The Spending Boom

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ESG: The 40 Trillion Dollar Bubble | Mark Neuman Aug 25, 2023

Show notes

On todays episode, Mark Neuman Founder & CIO of Constrained Capital joins the show for a discussion on environmental, social & corporate governance's (ESG's) role in the financial industry. To hear all about the origins of ESG, accurately measuring returns & some of the issues prevalent underneath the ESG label, you'll have to tune in!

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Use code GUIDANCE30 to get 30% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin:vhttps://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023

Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw

Timecodes:

(00:00) Introduction

(00:55) The Origins Of ESG

(04:32) Measuring ESG Investing

(16:47) What Stocks Are Underowned Within The Indices?

(24:00) Silicon Valley Bank

(26:21) Show Me The Incentive & I'll Show You the Outcome

(32:50) ExxonMobil, Tesla & FTX

(43:59) Weighting Within ESG Funds

(49:06) Did 2022 Mark A Turning Point For ESG Investing?

(54:38) HERO: Healing The Environment Regenerating Ourselves

The Next Chapter in Emerging Markets Investing | Marshall Stocker, Co-Head of Emerging Markets, Morgan Stanley Aug 24, 2023

Show notes

Marshall Stocker, co-Head of Emerging Markets at Morgan Stanley, shares his insight why country selection has a greater effect on excess returns than company selection, and shares his view on investment opportunities and challenges in China, Greece, India, South Africa, and other countries. Filmed at Camp Kotok in August 2023.

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Timecodes:

(00:00) Introduction

(00:26) Country Allocation Is Greater Source of Excess Returns Than Company Selection

(03:55) Greatest Country Overweight: Greece

(07:32) Underweight South Africa and India

(08:33) Can Governments Default On Debt Denominated In Currencies They Can Print? The Answer May Surprise You!

(10:54) Could The U.S. Ever Have An "Emerging Market Debt Crisis"?

(12:31) Chinese Equities

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Government Debt Crisis Has Hit U.S. Banks | Bill Isaac, Former FDIC Chair Aug 22, 2023

Show notes

Today Jack interviews William “Bill” Isaac, who served as Chair of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) from 1981 to 1985. Isaac recounts his handling of large bank failures in the 1970s and 1980s, including the collapse of Continental Illinois, which was the largest FDIC takeover until Washington Mutual in 2008. Isaac argues that at the core of banking issues is fiscal imprudence by the U.S. Congress which has caused inflation and rate volatility. Filmed on August 16, 2023.

Today’s interview is sponsored by Blockfills, a crypto trading solutions and financial technology firm.

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William "Bill" Isaac is Chairman of Secura/Isaac Group, a global advisory firm serving the financial services industry. Bill has an unparalleled career in the financial industry and public service, spanning over 50 years. He served as Chairman of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) from 1978 through 1985, working to maintain stability during the banking and thrift crises of the 1980s, when over 3,000 banks and thrifts failed. He also served as Chairman of Fifth Third Bancorp. For more information on Bill's past and current work, visit securaisaac.com

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Timecodes:

(00:00) Introduction

(00:31) Bill's Early Journey To The FDIC

(03:23) Anatomy Of A Bank Failure

(12:40) Does Technology Hasten Bank Runs?

(21:30) Impact of High Interest Rates On Banking System

(31:01) Fiscal Policy Is Out Of Control

(40:48) Federal Reserve Should Play A Role In Fiscal Matters, Says Former FDIC Chair

(49:07) Is Inflation Itself, And Not Debt, The True Problem? (Modern Monetary Theory)

(56:10) Two Reasons Why Banks Fall (On Asset Side): Credit & Duration

(01:08:28) Are Banking Issues In The U.S. Systemic?