Forward Guidance

Latest Episodes:

Banks Are Cleaning House Of Their Bad Assets | Chris Whalen Jul 22, 2024

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Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at https://vaneck.com/MOATFG.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(00:44) Overview of Chris' Banking Outlook

(04:59) Bank of America

(12:54) VanEck Ad

(15:39) Charles Schwab

(20:27) Credit Cards and Auto

(27:21) Permissionless Ad

(28:24) Commercial Real Estate (CRE)

(35:51) Smaller Banks Are Leading The Larger Banks

(40:34) Capital Markets Activity Is Picking Back Up

(44:43) Private Credit & Private Equity

(47:21) Synthetic Risk Transfers

(56:42) Basel III Endgame Might Be Shelved If Trump Gets Re-Elected

(01:18:58) What About The Chinese Shadow Banking System?

(01:21:13) How Pettis Sees This All Playing Out

(01:25:09) How Falling Real Estate Prices (And Stock Markets) Impact Sentiment In China

Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

China Is Exporting Unemployment | Michael Pettis on Global Trade Imbalances, American Capital Controls, and the End of The Chinese Growth Miracle Jul 18, 2024

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Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at https://vaneck.com/MOATFG.

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Recent writings by Michael Pettis:

“Which Country Should Design U.S. Industrial Policy?”: https://carnegieendowment.org/china-financial-markets/2024/07/which-country-should-design-us-industrial-policy?lang=en

“Trade and the Manufacturing Share”: https://www.phenomenalworld.org/analysis/trade-and-the-manufacturing-share/

“Trade Wars Are Class Wars: How Rising Inequality Distorts the Global Economy and Threatens International Peace”: https://www.amazon.com/Trade-Wars-Are-Class-International/dp/0300244177

Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(01:18) The Problem With China's Investment-Driven Growth Model

(09:52) Why Increasing China's Consumption Is So Hard

(17:36) China's Plan To Reignite Economic Growth In China

(20:43) Why China Will Follow Similar Path To Japan In Its Economic Decline In 1990s

(24:03) Impact That Trade Surplus Countries (China, Germany, etc.) Have on Trade Deficit Countries (U.S., U.K., etc.)

(28:06) VanEck Ad

(28:46) Interview Continues

(36:59) The Fall of The "Trade Is Always Good" Consensus Among Economists

(49:58) Permissionless Ad

(50:57) Is China "Cheating At Trade"?

(57:19) The Three Things The U.S. Can Do To Respond To Its Role As "Global Consumer Of Last Resort"

(01:01:53) Why U.S. Capital Controls Are Necessary To Truly Fix The American Trade Deficit

(01:06:35) Both Trump and Biden Factions Are Determined To Resolve U.S.' Trade Imbalances

(01:08:36) China's Move From Real Estate To Manufacturing Is Exacerbating Its Trade Surplus With The Rest Of The World

(01:14:53) Chinese Real Estate Crisis Unlikely To Imperil The Chinese Banking System, Argues Pettis (Because The Government Is In Control)

(01:18:58) What About The Chinese Shadow Banking System?

(01:21:13) How Pettis Sees This All Playing Out

(01:25:09) How Falling Real Estate Prices (And Stock Markets) Impact Sentiment In China

Peter Boockvar on an Overheated Stock Market, China’s Green Shoots, and the Private Credit Bezzle Jul 15, 2024

Show notes

Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at https://vaneck.com/MOATFG.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(00:48) Peter's Economic Worries: That Lower-End Consumers Are Already In A Recession

(12:26) VanEck Ad

(13:06) Interview Continues

(21:12) Is The AI Narrative That's Fueling The Stock Market Rally Real?

(48:07) Japan

(54:36) China

(01:09:19) 2024 U.S. Presidential Election

(01:11:42) Is The Boom In Private Credit & Private Equity Going To End Badly?

Airline Revenues Are Soaring. Their Profits Are Not | Planes And Trains Expert Jay Shabat on Depressed Railroad Volumes And Global Air Traffic Jul 11, 2024

Show notes

Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at https://vaneck.com/MOATFG.

Skift Airline Weekly https://airlineweekly.skift.com/

Jay Shabat’s Railroad Weekly https://railroadweekly.substack.com/

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Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(01:10) Railroads

(19:50) VanEck Ad

(20:30) Airlines

Why The Chinese Real Estate Downturn Won’t Sink The Chinese Economy | Ben Harburg Jul 08, 2024

Show notes

Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at https://vaneck.com/MOATFG.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(01:18) Has The Bearish Narrative On China's Collapse Gone Too Far?

(05:50) Collapse Of Evergrande Was NOT A "Lehman Moment," Argues Harburg

(10:21) Current State of Chinese Real Estate Market

(15:56) Is Economic Stimulus From The Chinese Government On Its Way?

(19:28) Are Chinese Policymakers Worried About Deflation?

(21:16) Western Goods Are Being "Slaughtered" By Chinese Consumption of Domestically-Produced Goods

(24:35) VanEck Ad

(25:29) Spending Is "Definitely Weak" As "People Are Losing Their Jobs"

(26:42) Not In DNA of Chinese Government To Enact a "Major Stimulus Package"

(28:59) India Is A "Mirage" Where Corruption Is Actually Higher Than In China, Argues Harburg

(36:46) Delisting of DiDi Was "Justified" But The Chinese Government Often Does Not Provide Sufficient Detail On Rationale Behind Policies

(41:01) The Chinese Labor Market

(43:09) Permissionless Ad

(44:15) The Chinese Stock Market

(49:28) Chinese Electric Vehicles

(54:19) Tariffs Against China: Why Chinese Leaders Would Prefer Trump Over Biden

(01:00:49) Does Beijing Look Fondly Upon Bank Credit Being Directed Away From Real Estate And Into Consumer Lending?

(01:06:21) Private Markets In China Are "Very Challenged"

(01:12:17) China's Central Bank (The People's Bank of China)

(01:14:11) Chinese Yuan

BCG Chief Economist: Artificial Intelligence Will Displace Labor | Philipp Carlsson-Szlezak on Economic False Alarms and Solar Flare Black Swans Jul 02, 2024

Show notes

Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at https://vaneck.com/MOATFG.

Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96

Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance

Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_

Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(00:46) Economic False Alarms Over Past 5 Years

(05:44) The False Recession Signal of 2022

(19:36) VanEck Ad

(20:17) What Is The Cause Of So Much Economic Pessimism?

(26:26) Are Sovereign Debt Levels A Threat To Economy?

(39:56) Permissionless III Ad

(40:54) AI And Labor Productivity

(54:04) How To Prepare For Actual Material Economic Threats

(01:00:52) What Are The False Signals Of 2024?

(01:06:25) Geopolitical Risks

(01:13:10) U.S. / China Tensions

(01:17:22) Black Swan: Solar Flare

“Accident Brewing” | Neil Dutta on Rising Slowdown Risks And Why He Thinks The Fed Will Cut Sooner Rather Than Later Jun 27, 2024

Show notes

Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at https://vaneck.com/MOATFG.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(00:56) Is There An "Economic Accident" Brewing?

(10:26) Why Neil Thinks The Fed Should Cut Before The Election

(21:54) VanEck Ad

(22:36) Odds Of A Recession

(29:33) Is The Nonfarm Payroll (NFP) Data From Establishment Survey Overstating How Rosy U.S. Job Market Is?

(48:25) Dutta Prefers Bonds Over Stocks

(58:42) The Fiscal Deficit In 2025 And Beyond

Oil & Crypto Trader Jonah van Bourg: Altcoins Going to Zero, Bitcoin Bull Move Is Just Getting Started, and Oil Vol Is Overpriced Jun 25, 2024

Show notes

Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at https://vaneck.com/MOATFG.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(00:34) Jonah's Background At Lehman, Goldman, Vitol, and Cumberland

(04:18) Jonah on Crypto: "I'm So Bullish I Can't See Straight"

(06:18) Why Jonah Thinks Bitcoin Will Stay In A Range ("Proper Chop") Before Shooting Higher

(09:11) Jonah: Bitcoin Is Better At Conducting Large Scale Commodity Transactions Than Most Non-Reserve Fiat Currencies

(22:01) VanEck Ad

(28:20) Has Saudi Arabia Moved Off The Petrodollar?

(30:09) Is Mt. Gox Unlock of Bitcoin A Big Deal?

(34:25) Jonah on The Real Reason Crypto Is Going Down: "Most Altcoins Are Worthless": You "Shitcoin of Choice" Is Probably Dead

(45:19) The Rise of Stablecoins

(48:26) The "AI" Crypto Coins

(50:40) Jonah on Oil: There's A Lot Of Spare Capacity, Hard To See A Big Move Higher

(58:09) The Best Trade of 2024 In Oil Has Been Selling Options

(01:06:34) Why Jonah Is Bullish Distillates

(01:10:15) Jonah on Oil Refineries

(01:13:34) Natural Gas

(01:20:25) Uranium and Gold

(01:22:58) Fiat Debasement and Bitcoin

The Next Big Thing In Capital Markets | David Goone Jun 24, 2024

Show notes

Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at https://vaneck.com/MOATFG.

This week, David Goone CEO of tZERO joins the show for a discussion on the next big trend he is seeing within capital markets. We discuss David's time at the ICE exchange, acquisition as a growth strategy, the development of online trading, how to unlock liquidity for alternative assets & more. Enjoy!

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Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(08:20) The Shift From LIBOR To SOFR

(16:05) VanEck Ad

(16:45) Acquisition As A Growth Strategy

(22:16) The Growth Of Electronic Trading

(24:57) What Is tZERO?

(36:43) What Is A Security?

(38:47) Providing Liquidity For Venture Capital & Private Equity

(48:53) Aspen Hotel Resort Offering

(56:20) Building A Brand & Reputation As An Alternative Exchange

Venture Capitalist Who Called 2021 “Everything Bubble” Thinks VC Valuations Are “Reasonable” | Fabrice Grinda, Super Angel Investor, on Geopolitical Threats, AI, and Yield-Bearing Stablecoins Jun 20, 2024

Show notes

Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at https://vaneck.com/MOATFG.

Midas’ website: https://midas.app/

Follow Midas on Twitter https://x.com/midasrwa

Fabrice Grinda’s website: https://fabricegrinda.com/

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Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(00:54) How Fabrice Grinda Thinks About Macro

(05:19) Fabrice's Early Journey In VC During The Venture Capital Bust of 2000

(07:06) The VC Boom of 2020 & 2021

(11:24) Why Raising Too Much Money At Too High A Valuation Can Be A Big Problem (For Real)

(16:38) Layoffs In Tech While The Overall U.S. Job Market Has Been Strong In 2023 & 2024: How To Square This?

(19:18) The Biggest Risk Now Is Not Macroeconomic In Nature: It Is Geopolitical

(21:19) VanEck Ad

(21:59) Palantir and Anduril

(26:48) Why An Increasing Percentage of Grinda's Investments Are Now In The U.S.

(30:42) VC Tourists Who Got Smoked In 2022

(33:15) Have VC Valuations Bottomed? A Tale of Two Cities (AI & Non-AI)

(36:02) Fabrice's Journey Into Crypto

(39:29) Midas: Yield-Bearing Stablecoin That Can Actually Do Stuff On-Chain

(44:13) The Crypto Basis Trade & mBasis

(47:50) Tether and Circle

(49:41) Midas' Decision To Be Regulatory Compliant In Europe (And Not The U.S.)

(51:44) The U.S. Regulatory Crackdown on Crypto Has Been Hardcore

(53:17) Bankruptcy Remoteness In Crypto Is Rare

(57:27) Are Onchain Treasury Bills Still Zero Coupon?

(58:32) Fabrice's Longer-Term Vision For Midas

(59:49) Fabrice's Views On Payment Rails Such as MasterCard, Visa, etc.

(01:04:27) FedNow

(01:07:29) How Did The Fall of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) Impact The Venture Capital (VC) Ecosystem?

(01:14:35) Additional Thoughts On Macro and Recession Risk

(01:17:45) State of AI VC Market In 2024

(01:24:50) Self-Driving Tech

(01:27:12) Who Will Be The Biggest Long-Term Winners From AI?

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