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    Business

    Forward Guidance

    The laws of macro investing are being re-written, and investors who fail to adapt to the rapidly changing monetary environment will struggle to keep pace. Felix Jauvin interviews the brightest minds in finance about which asset classes they think will thrive in the financial future that they envision.

    Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc
    Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance 
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    Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance
    Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+nSVVTQITWSdiYTIx

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    Copyright: © 384141 Blockworks 2021

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    Latest Episodes:
    Richard Koo: China’s “Balance Sheet Recession” Has Already Started | (Jack’s Final Episode) Sep 13, 2024
    Show notes

    Important news: this will be Jack’s last episode as the host of Forward Guidance. He is transitioning to host a new podcast called Monetary Matters: https://www.youtube.com/@Monetary-Matters


    Felix Jauvin, macro trader and current host of “On The Margin,” will be the new host of Forward Guidance going forward: https://x.com/fejau_inc


    Richard Koo, senior adviser at CSIS, chief economist at Nomura Research Institute, and pioneer of the “balance sheet recession” phenomenon, explains why he thinks China’s balance sheet recession has already begun.


    Richard Koo’s latest book, “Pursued Economy: Understanding and Overcoming the Challenging New Realities for Advanced Economies”: https://www.amazon.com/Pursued-Economy-Understanding-Overcoming-Challenging/dp/1119984270


    Richard Koo’s classic book, “The Holy Grail of Macroeconomics: Lessons from Japan's Great Recession”: https://www.amazon.com/Holy-Grail-Macroeconomics-Lessons-Recession/dp/0470824948


    __

    Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96

    Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance

    Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_

    __


    Timestamps:

    (00:00) Introduction

    (01:08) What Is A Balance Sheet Recession?

    (08:56) Balance Sheet Recession In Europe & U.S. After The Great Financial Crisis of 2008

    (15:46) China's Balance Sheet Recession

    (25:43) Savings And Bank Credit In China

    (33:26) Permissionless Ad

    (34:25) China's Trade Surplus

    (38:20) China Likely Can't Export Its Way Out Of Its Balance Sheet Recession Because The Rest of the World Won't Let It

    (45:33) The Currency Adjustment Mechanism To Correct Trade Imbalances Has Been Severely Impaired, Argues Koo

    (01:01:58) Is The U.S. in a Balance Sheet Expansion?

    __

    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.


    CDO Whisperer Brett Jefferson on Securitization Markets and TruPS CDO Relics Sep 12, 2024
    Show notes

    This interview with Brett Jefferson discusses trust preferred CDOs, why they can provide such great opportunities, and how Brett’s fund capitalizes on this niche market. Brett and Jack also discuss the private credit market, the risks and benefits of securitization, the performance of the collateralized loan market, and much more. Recorded on September 10, 2024.


    Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96

    Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance

    Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_

    Follow the new host of Forward Guidance, Felix Jauvin https://x.com/fejau_inc

    Jack’s upcoming podcast, Monetary Matters: https://www.youtube.com/@Monetary-Matters

    __


    Timestamps:

    (00:00) Introduction

    (00:59) Trust Preferred CDOs

    (08:44) Starting Hildene Capital Management

    (10:44) Buying Trust Preferred CDOs

    (13:22) Deferred Payments

    (20:13) Trust Preferreds Regulated Out

    (23:15) Philadelphia Fed Paper

    (27:38) Taking Advantage Of Inefficient Markets

    (34:33) Private Credit

    (37:55) Hildene's Market Niche

    (44:11) The Structured Credit Market

    (51:44) Structured Security Correlations

    (55:20) Credit Market Risks

    (01:00:00) The Realities Of Private Credit

    (01:08:27) TruPS CDOs

    (01:11:03) Private Credit CLO Market

    (01:14:48) Risks & Rewards

    (01:18:58) Collateralized Loan Market Performance

    (01:25:28) Closing

    __

    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.



    Structured Credit Maven Laila Kollmorgen on CLO’s Rally and Opportunity To Differentiate As Fundamentals Soften and Prices Climb | VanEck Fireside Chat #6 Sep 11, 2024
    Show notes

    Laila Kollmorgen, Portfolio Manager, CLO Tranche for Pinebridge Investments, joins Jack for a Fireside Chat on Forward Guidance to discuss why collateralized loan obligations (CLOs) have rallied so much over the past two years as most of the fixed-income world has suffered enormously. Laila explains why she likes the structure of CLOs and why she thinks there will be an opportunity to be selective going forward as credit fundamentals begin to soften and valuations have increased. This interview is a Fireside Chat and paid sponsorship on behalf of the VanEck Associates Corporation.

    __

    Follow VanEck on Twitter https://x.com/vaneck_us

    Laila Kollmorgen’s articles on Pinebridge:

    https://www.pinebridge.com/en/insights/after-the-clo-rally-selectivity-will-be-key-as-fundamentals-shift

    https://www.pinebridge.com/en/insights/after-the-clo-rally-selectivity-will-be-key-as-fundamentals-shift

    https://www.pinebridge.com/en/insights/leveraged-finance-asset-allocation-insights-issuer-selection-is-key-as-loans

    Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96

    Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance

    Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_

    __


    Timestamps:

    (00:00) Introduction

    (01:15) What Is A Collateralized Loan Obligation (CLO)?

    (05:37) CLOs (Collateralized Loan Obligations) vs. CDOs (Collateralized Debt Obligations): How CLOs Fared Much Better Than CDOs During The Great Financial Crisis

    (13:13) Market Value CDOs and CLO Reinvestment Periods

    (19:45) Why CLOs Have Performed So Well

    (24:54) If Silicon Valley Bank Had Invested In CLOs Instead of Long-Duration Paper (Agency MBS & Treasurys), Perhaps They Would Still Be Around!

    (35:26) CLO Valuations And Laila's Base Case For CLOs As Interest Rate Cutting Cycle Is About To Begin

    (41:21) Have Economic Fundamentals Begun To Soften?

    (43:37) Refinancing Risk (i.e. if CLO Manager Pays Off Tranche Liabilities At Par To Refinance At Tighter Spread)

    (46:32) Some CLO Investors Were Buying Callable Paper Above Part (>100)! (That's "Crazy" Says Kollmorgen)

    (51:59) The Maturity Wall For High Yield and Corporate Credit Has Been Extended

    (56:13) How Might Various Tranches Of CLO Asset Class Perform In A Recession?

    (59:41) Risk of Default and Risk of Distressed Sales

    (01:03:53) Views On Liquidity and Volatility

    (01:09:04) Not A Huge Fan of Private Credit CLOs

    (01:13:37) Thoughts on "Creditor on Creditor Violence"

    (01:17:10) Red Flags to Avoid In CLO World


    __

    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor befor



    Bitcoin's Path To $3 Million Dollars | Matthew Sigel Sep 10, 2024
    Show notes

    This interview with Matthew Sigel explores the bull case for bitcoin, its future as a reserve asset, and the economics of bitcoin miners. We also discuss miners pivoting to data centers, stablecoins, crypto regulation and much more. This interview is paid sponsorship on behalf of the VanEck corporation. Recorded on September 4, 2024.


    Sigel's piece, "Bitcoin Miners' AI Arbitrage Play to Boost Revenue": https://www.vaneck.com/us/en/blogs/digital-assets/matthew-sigel-bitcoin-miners-ai-arbitrage-play-to-boost-revenue/

    Sigel's piece, "Bitcoin 2050 Valuation Scenarios: Global Medium of Exchange and Reserve Asset": https://www.vaneck.com/us/en/blogs/digital-assets/matthew-sigel-bitcoin-2050-valuation-scenarios-global-medium-of-exchange-and-reserve-asset/

    __

    Follow Matthew Sigel on Twitter https://x.com/matthew_sigel

    Follow VanEck on Twitter https://x.com/vaneck_us

    Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96

    Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance

    Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_

    __


    Timestamps:

    (00:00) Introduction

    (00:53) How Matthew Got Into Crypto

    (05:10) Fake & Bias News In Finance

    (07:51) The Case For Bitcoin

    (10:48) Bitcoin As A Reserve Asset

    (18:33) Nation States Leveraging Bitcoin

    (22:40) Profitability Of Bitcoin Mining

    (24:22) Catalysts For Bitcoin Adoption

    (26:52) Bitcoin As A Medium Of Exchange

    (28:42) Bitcoin Risks

    (33:34) Is The Bitcoin Supply Flexible?

    (35:08) Bitcoin Miner Economics

    (41:02) Bitcoin Miners Repurposing Their Energy

    (46:31) Bitcoin Vs Altcoins

    (53:53) Biggest Crypto Overweights & Underweights

    (58:09) Stablecoins

    (01:05:19) Crypto Politics & Regulation

    (01:07:40) NFTs


    __

    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets



    Gold Stocks Are Undervalued | Imaru Casanova (VanEck Fireside Chat #4) Sep 06, 2024
    Show notes

    Imaru Casanova, Portfolio Manager, Gold and Precious Metals at VanEck, joins to share her views on how to value gold stocks such as gold miners and gold royalty companies. Casanova argues that with the recent run up in gold, gold stocks could be undervalued and are poised to deliver strong results and returns. This interview is a Fireside Chat and paid sponsorship on behalf of the VanEck Associates Corporation.

    __

    Follow VanEck on Twitter https://x.com/vaneck_us

    Imaru Casanova on VanEck website: https://www.vaneck.com.au/news-and-insights/thought-leaders/imaru-casanova/

    Casanova’s latest piece on Gold Miners: https://www.vaneck.com/us/en/blogs/gold-investing/ima-casanova-miners-margins-grow-as-gold-soars-to-fresh-highs/

    Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96

    Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance

    Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_

    __

    Timestamps:

    (00:00) Introduction

    (00:24) The New Bull Market In Gold

    (06:32) Investing In Gold Companies

    (09:14) How To Value A Gold Company

    (16:38) Cash Flow vs. Earnings?

    (19:25) Gold Miners Are ~20% Discounted Relative To Gold Prices

    (22:51) Specific Gold Mining Stocks

    (25:36) Managing Jurisdictional Risk

    (36:54) Thinking About Depreciation

    (40:04) Common Mistakes When Analyzing Gold Companies

    (44:38) Gold Royalty Companies

    (52:06) Greenfield vs. Brownfield Projects

    (58:32) Closing Thoughts on Gold Miners

    __

    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.


    There Will Be No Recession | Jonny Mathews Sep 05, 2024
    Show notes

    This interview with Jonny Mathews explores why he believes we aren’t headed for a recession, how real consumption will likely drive Q3 GDP higher, and why he thinks unemployment will moderate. We also discuss the market opportunities he’s seeing, hitting home run trades, and much more.

    __

    Follow Jonny Mathews on Twitter https://x.com/super_macro

    Subscribe to Super Macro at https://super-macro.com/

    Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96

    Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance

    Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_

    __

    Timestamps:

    (00:00) Introduction

    (00:45) Are We Headed For A Recession?

    (03:09) Income Growth Is Driving Consumption

    (05:45) Household Savings

    (07:44) Unemployment Will Moderate

    (15:40) Credit Markets

    (19:48) Permissionless Ad

    (20:48) Job Market Revisions

    (23:47) Opportunities In Fixed Income

    (27:32) Trading Interest Rates

    (30:53) Will Inflation Continue To Fall?

    (35:42) Labor Market Data

    (39:31) Opportunities In The UK

    (50:30) Home Run Trades

    (52:55) The Gold Market

    (55:33) China Outlook

    (01:01:24) S&P 500 Earnings

    (01:05:29) AI & Productivity

    (01:09:29) Super Macro Note

    (01:12:05) Jonny's Trading Experience

    (01:18:13) Stocks Over Bonds

    (01:20:27) Cumulative Personal Savings


    __

    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets


    The Labor Market Is Cooling | Talmon Smith & Jack Farley (Driving Back from Camp Kotok) Sep 05, 2024
    Show notes

    This interview was recorded on a drive down from Leen’s Lodge in rural Maine, as Talmon and Jack returned from “Camp Kotok,” the renowned retreat for prominent economists, wealth managers, traders, heads of research, and financial journalists. Talmon and Jack talk about the cooling labor market, modern monetary theory (MMT), private credit, and more.

    __

    Follow Talmon Smith on Twitter https://x.com/talmonsmith

    Latest articles by Talmon Smith for The New York Times: https://www.nytimes.com/by/talmon-joseph-smith

    About Camp Kotok https://www.cumber.com/about/camp-kotok

    Leen’s Lodge: https://leenslodge.com/

    Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96

    Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance

    Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_

    __

    Timestamps:

    (00:00) Introduction

    (00:33) The Soft Landing Is In View

    (08:28) Companies Actually Do Pay Attention To Interest Rates When Hiring, Believe It Or Not

    (17:26) Jack & Tal Rant About The Virtues Of A Flexible Centralized Currency

    (18:53) Permissionless Ad

    (19:51) Interview Continues

    (26:42) The Sahm Rule Was Created To Inspire Action In Order to Prove Itself Wrong

    (37:00) Outside of Banking Crisis of 2023, The Fed's "Pain" Has Yet To Show Itself

    (42:37) The Treasury Market: How Much Does Supply Affect Yields?

    (49:48) Modern Monetary Theory: Who Really Prints The Money?

    (01:27:10) Jack's Personal Thoughts On Private Credit

    __

    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.



    India Is The Most Promising Emerging Market | Angus Shillington Aug 29, 2024
    Show notes

    This interview with Angus Shillington explores why India is the most promising emerging market, why it has outperformed the S&P 500, and the country’s favorable demographics. We also discuss the risks & rewards of investing in China, how Chinese equities compare to Indian equities, and the booming semiconductor market. This interview is paid sponsorship on behalf of the VanEck corporation. Recorded on August 22, 2024.

    __

    Follow Angus Shillington on Twitter: https://x.com/angusshillingto

    Follow VanEck on Twitter https://x.com/vaneck_us

    Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96

    Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance

    Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_

    __

    Timestamps:

    (00:00) Introduction

    (00:18) Emerging Vs Developed Market Investing

    (01:19) GDP Vs Equity Performance

    (06:16) Risks & Rewards In Chinese Equities

    (10:14) Chinese Real Estate Market

    (11:54) Most Promising Emerging Market

    (18:28) How India's Market Improved

    (22:57) How India Companies Fund Themselves

    (24:29) India's Favorable Demographics

    (30:01) Best Performing Industries In India

    (33:09) India Inflation

    (35:31) India's Imports & Exports

    (36:50) Indian Vs Chinese Equity Valuations

    (45:58) Indian Investment Goals

    (49:00) Indian Vs Chinese Financial Sector

    (53:54) TSMC, NVIDIA, & The Semiconductor Market

    (01:10:01) Does ASML Have A Monopoly

    (01:12:26) Most & Least Favorable EMs



    __

    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets


    Markets Will Get A Deficit President No Matter What | Jim Bianco & Jeremy Schwartz Aug 27, 2024
    Show notes

    This interview with Jim Bianco and Jeremy Schwartz discusses the Federal Reserve’s policy path, whether inflation will actually come down, and if the economy is headed for a no landing. We also delve into the neutral rate, the key election issues for markets, and whether stocks will outperform bonds.

    __

    Follow Jim Bianco on Twitter https://x.com/biancoresearch

    Follow Jeremy Schwartz on Twitter https://x.com/JeremyDSchwartz

    Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96

    Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance

    Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_

    __

    Timestamps:

    (00:00) Introduction

    (00:48) Jim & Jack's Assessment Of The Economy

    (02:58) The Fed & Interest Rates

    (03:55) Unemployment & The Sahm Rule

    (06:57) Is Inflation Coming Down?

    (08:33) Real Interest Rates

    (11:05) What Is The Neutral Rate?

    (14:21) The Pace Of The Cutting Cycle

    (18:41) Election Insights

    (20:55) Deficits Are The Key Issue

    (23:11) Will Stocks Outperform Bonds?

    __

    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets


    Michael Drury on China's Trillion Dollar Secret and Why The U.S. Is Not Headed Imminently Into A Recession Aug 26, 2024
    Show notes

    This interview with Michael Drury explores how China’s problems affect the global economy, its economic advantages, and where it spends its trillion-dollar surplus. We also discuss the US economy’s resilience, why Michael doesn’t see a recession, and much more.

    –

    Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96

    Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance

    Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_

    __


    Timestamps:

    (00:00) Introduction

    (00:31) The Risks Of Financialization

    (02:07) Financial Market Signals

    (05:37) China & The Global Economy

    (09:44) China's Problems Are The World's Problem

    (15:15) US Economic Resilience

    (21:07) How Good Is The US Economy?

    (27:11) Fed Vs Wall St. Priorities

    (30:28) Comparing Major Economies

    (37:18) China's Economic Advantages

    (40:44) Where China Spends Its Money

    (49:44) China's Growing Influence

    (53:01) The US Economy & Inflation

    (01:10:31) European Economy

    (01:11:58) Asian Economies

    (01:14:48) Camp Kotok

    __

    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets


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