Forward Guidance

Latest Episodes:

Exercising Caution Amid Market Euphoria | Weekly Roundup Nov 16, 2024

Show notes

This week we discuss the Fed’s cutting path, Powell’s speech, and managing crypto market euphoria. We also delve into whether we’ve seen the peak in the dollar and yields, the factors driving the Fed, and much more. Enjoy!

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Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/15P0IaQJQajBm35qCu4e564YWueVRbV5B/view?usp=sharing

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Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(01:37) Revisiting View Of The Economy

(03:42) Fed Cuts & Powell Speech

(09:55) Peak In Dollar & Yields

(13:38) Government Spending & DOGE

(19:02) China, Japan, & The Dollar

(22:23) Small Caps Vs Large Caps

(24:56) Ads

(26:29) Managing Crypto Euphoria

(33:24) Bullish Market Signals

(37:41) Stifling Volatility

(40:41) Tactical Outlook For Bitcoin

(43:35) Long-Term Bitcoin Outlook

(48:16) Inflation & Potential For Recession

(53:34) Differentiating Assets

Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Breaking Down Trump's Potential Trade & Economic Policies | Stephen Miran Nov 13, 2024

Show notes

In this episode, Stephen Miran joins the show to discuss Trump’s potential economic policies, the current economic imbalances in global trade, and the economics of tariffs. We also delve into how currency moves can offset tariffs, a potential Mar-a-Lago Accord to weaken the dollar, and much more. Enjoy!

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Stephan’s New Paper: https://www.hudsonbaycapital.com/our_research

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Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(01:27) Stephen's Background

(02:34) Context Behind The Paper

(04:51) Economic Imbalances In Global Trade

(09:15) Consequences Of Having The Reserve Currency

(11:26) Consequences Of US Share Of Global GDP Declining

(14:21) Financial Extraterritoriality & Tariffs

(17:28) Economics Of Tariffs

(25:37) Currency Offsetting

(32:25) Ads

(33:58) Trump's Economic Policies

(45:46) Varied Application Of Tariffs

(49:18) Dollar Devaluation

(55:35) The Role Of The Fed & Treasury

(01:01:46) The Big Picture

(01:03:43) Trump's Impact On Markets

(01:06:43) Closing Remarks

The Stock Market Melt Up Is About To Accelerate | George Robertson Nov 12, 2024

Show notes

In this episode, George Robertson joins the show to discuss why he thinks there is no monetary policy, the changing reaction function of the Fed, and how fiscal is driving nominal GDP. We also delve into the implications of an absent Fed, the real risk-free rate, and much more. Enjoy!

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Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(02:11) The Fed Doesn't Exist

(06:58) Neo Wicksell Policy Shift

(14:14) Forward Guidance

(15:54) Summarizing George's Position

(17:50) Normalizing Fed Funds

(21:03) There Is No Monetary Policy

(33:28) Ads

(35:00) There Is No Monetary Policy (Continued)

(37:18) What Is Driving The Economy?

(45:09) Implications Of An Absent Fed

(49:51) What Stage Are We In?

(53:01) The Real Risk-Free Rate

(01:01:23) Economic Outlook

(01:06:10) Learn More About George's Work

Positioning For The New Post-Election Market Regime | Weekly Roundup Nov 09, 2024

Show notes

This week we discuss the impact of the election, the Fed’s interest rate decision, and the post-election trading themes. We also delve into shorting gold, Bitcoin’s all-time high, and much more. Enjoy!

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Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp

Follow Tyler: https://twitter.com/Tyler_Neville_

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Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance

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Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1GXSr4CfY6aBPYd0z5UqZCIco0MBmMaVb/view?usp=sharing

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Timestamps:

00:00 Introduction

01:27 Election Outcome

04:43 The Shift In Media & Polling

09:09 Unity Or More Fracturing?

15:53 Market Impact Of Election

23:04 Ads

24:18 Market Impact Of Election (Continued)

25:35 Offsides Hedging

30:40 Powell & The Fed

36:37 December FOMC Meeting

40:47 2025 Themes To Watch

44:39 Short Gold?

46:46 Crypto & Bitcoin All-Time Highs

52:19 New Market Regime

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Biggest Takeaways From The Fed Interest Rate Decision | Bob Elliot Nov 08, 2024

Show notes

In this episode, Bob Elliot joins the show to discuss the Fed’s latest interest rate decision, the ongoing "over easy" monetary policy, and the election’s impact on the Fed and markets. We also delve into the labor market, fiscal deficits, and much more. Enjoy!

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Follow: https://x.com/BobEUnlimited

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Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_

Buy now on Ledger.com.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(01:31) FOMC Takeaways

(02:48) Is Policy Restrictive?

(07:20) Are Cuts Fairly Priced?

(09:54) Cuts Are Coming No Matter What

(12:39) Over Easy Monetary Policy

(15:40) Quantitative Tightening

(18:24) What The Fed SHOULD Do

(22:20) Ledger Ad

(23:05) The Labor Market

(26:33) Election Impact On The Fed

(31:40) Can The Fed Tame Inflation?

(35:22) Fiscal Deficits

(42:51) Asset Allocation

(44:42) Credit Spreads

(46:39) Foreign Markets & Monetary Policy

(49:58) F*ck Valuations

(52:11) Follow Bob's Work

Unpacking The Election’s Impact On Markets | Cem Karsan Nov 06, 2024

Show notes

In this episode, Cem Karsan joins the show to discuss the election’s impact on markets, the new era of populism, and the post-election volatility smash. We also delve into Trump’s impact on the Federal Reserve, the annual re-leveraging effect in markets, and much more. Enjoy!

Follow Cem Karsan: https://x.com/jam_croissant

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Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_

Buy now on Ledger.com.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(10:11) Pollster Miscalculations

(12:03) Societal Impact Of Election

(19:49) Secular Vs Cyclical Impact

(27:52) Ledger Ad

(28:37) How Will The Fed React?

(33:03) Money Printing & The Dollar

(35:38) Volatility & Market Structure

(43:39) The Re-leveraging Effect

(52:06) Market Outlook

(56:32) Learn More About Cem's Work

Why The Macro Is Still Bullish Liquidity | Weekly Roundup Nov 02, 2024

Show notes

This week we discuss the latest NFP report, the Treasury's Quarterly Refunding Announcement, and whether the Trump trade is unwinding. We also delve into the moves in yields, MicroStrategy, and much more. Enjoy!

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Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp

Follow Tyler: https://twitter.com/Tyler_Neville_

Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc

Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance

Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance

Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.co/G7Ljv4x5Dp

Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_

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Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1Z6tgjtMhnVnGc9PLqwxAMd3TB2Gmx0Qu/view?usp=sharing

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Buy now on Ledger.com.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(01:47) NFP Report Takeaways

(14:50) Quant Corner

(24:31) Ledger Ad

(25:16) Is The Trump Trade Unwinding?

(37:31) QRA

(48:16) Microstrategy: The Big Long

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Where Are We In The Bull Market? | Jurrien Timmer Oct 29, 2024

Show notes

In this episode, Jurrien Timmer joins the show to discuss where we are in the current bull market, the push & pull between earnings and valuations, and the various influences on interest rates. We also delve into when the US debt level becomes a real problem, monetary hedges, and much more. Enjoy!

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Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(01:14) Where Are We in the Bull Market?

(04:22) Is this Bull Market Unique?

(07:07) Economic Resilience to Short Rates

(09:12) Quantitative Tightening & Liquidity

(12:39) Election Impact on Markets

(15:54) Unpacking the Move in Yields

(22:20) Outlook for Risk Assets

(26:39) Earnings vs Valuation

(34:52) Ledger Ad

(35:37) Did We Achieve A Soft Landing?

(37:32) Inflation Reacceleration Risk

(42:02) Gold, Bitcoin & Monetary Hedges

(45:40) Path To Negative Real Rates

(49:07) When Does The US Level Debt Actually Matter?

(56:42) Learn More About Jurrien

Is It Too Late To Buy Election Hedges? | Weekly Roundup Oct 26, 2024

Show notes

This week we discuss the short bond trade, volatility and excessive hedging, and the election probabilities. We also delve into MicroStrategy’s Bitcoin strategy, unrealized bond loss FUD, and much more. Enjoy!

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Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp

Follow Tyler: https://twitter.com/Tyler_Neville_

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Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance

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Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1S9PUsLK1G_mqZxzYWrQ1tbEsrgTlecF7/view?usp=drive_link

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Buy now on Ledger.com.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(02:33) Path of Interest Rates

(08:01) Is the Short Long Bond Trade Overdone?

(10:46) Overdone Currency Moves

(12:53) Implied Volatility vs Realized Volatility

(16:48) The MOVE Index & Election Hedging

(20:29) Election Probability Distribution

(27:17) Ledger Ad

(28:02) Yellen & Real Interest Rates

(31:10) Inflation Resurgence

(33:18) Global Coordination

(36:01) Macro Trading vs Ideas & the Bond Trade

(39:04) The Reality of a Trump Presidency

(47:04) Bitcoin & MicroStrategy

(52:19) Tesla & The Convert Market

(55:56) Unrealized Bond Losses FUD

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Breaking Down The Current Business Cycle | Eric Basmajian Oct 22, 2024

Show notes

In this episode, Eric Basmajian joins the show to break down the business cycle, how the cyclical economy impacts the broader economy, and the housing sector’s role in the business cycle. We also delve into the strong GDP numbers, how to measure the labor market and interpret revisions, and much more. Enjoy!

Follow Eric Basmajian: https://x.com/epbresearch?lang=en

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Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(00:34) Breaking Down the Business Cycle

(09:24) Is this Cycle Different?

(12:24) Durable Goods Manufacturing & Motor Vehicles