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    Business

    Forward Guidance

    The laws of macro investing are being re-written, and investors who fail to adapt to the rapidly changing monetary environment will struggle to keep pace. Felix Jauvin interviews the brightest minds in finance about which asset classes they think will thrive in the financial future that they envision.

    Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc
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    Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance
    Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+nSVVTQITWSdiYTIx

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    Copyright: © 384141 Blockworks 2021

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    Latest Episodes:
    Jack Ryan on The Housing Cartel That's Stifling The American Economy May 30, 2024
    Show notes

    Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at https://vaneck.com/MOATFG.

    Jack Ryan’s book: https://www.simonandschuster.com/books/Bringing-Adam-Smith-into-the-American-Home/Jack-Ryan/9798888451946

    Follow VanEck on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneck_us

    Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96

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    __


    Timestamps:

    (00:00) Introduction

    (01:01) The Residential Agency Brokerage Business Is “The Largest Cartel In The U.S.” Argues Jack Ryan

    (18:01) Is This Legal?

    (23:24) Role of Multiple Listing Services (MLSs)

    (28:32) Zillow’s Business Model

    (35:24) VanEck Ad

    (36:04) Rex’s Plans To Go Public Disintegrated After Material Slowdown In Business Upon Zillow Change

    (39:39) Long And Short Ideas If Brokerage Fees Were To Go Down

    (44:26) If Brokerage Is Such A Good Business, Where Are All The Excess Profits?

    (48:40) How Zillow’s Business Decision May Have Impacted Rex Homes

    (54:11) Rex’s Lawsuit Against Zillow, NAR, and Trulia

    (01:05:55) National Association of Realtors (NAR) Has A Grip On Washington DC

    (01:11:59) Closing Thoughts On Strength Of U.S. Housing Market

    __

    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.


    In This Economy? | Kyla Scanlon May 30, 2024
    Show notes

    Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at https://vaneck.com/MOATFG.

    Kyla Scanlon’s Book, “In This Economy?” https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/737854/in-this-economy-by-kyla-scanlon/

    Follow Kyla Scanlon on Twitter https://x.com/kylascan

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    Kyla Scanlon’s website https://kylascanlon.com/

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    Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96

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    __

    Timestamps:

    (00:00) Introduction

    (00:19) In This Economy?

    (07:44) How Are The Vibes Right Now

    (11:43) Does The U.S. Have A Housing Crisis?

    (14:21) VanEck Ad

    (15:02) Does The U.S. Have A Housing Crisis? (continued)

    (19:45) Declinism & Doomerism

    (27:23) Wealth & Income Inequality In The U.S.

    (32:46) Political Polarization

    (34:16) The Origin Of Money

    (36:10) MMT & Debt

    (40:48) Elder Care & Child Care Costs

    __

    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.



    James Fishback: Inside The “Head Of Macro” Dispute That Has Captivated The Hedge Fund World May 23, 2024
    Show notes

    Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at https://vaneck.com/MOATFG.

    __

    Views expressed by James Fishback in this interview are solely his own and do not necessarily reflect the views of Jack Farley, Forward Guidance, Blockworks, or any other associated parties.

    Although the title “head of macro” plays a central role in this ongoing legal dispute, James Fishback notes in this interview that his complaint also concerns his role in Greenlight’s macro returns during his employment. Recorded the evening of May 22, 2024.

    James Fishback vs. Greenlight Capital: https://assets.bwbx.io/documents/users/iqjWHBFdfxIU/rGPZD1CfIoZE/v0

    Greenlight Capital vs. James Fishback:

    https://assets.bwbx.io/documents/users/iqjWHBFdfxIU/r61keEZ5nJ1k/v0

    Follow James Fishback on Twitter https://x.com/j_fishback

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    __

    Timestamps:

    (00:00) Introduction

    (06:08) Job Offer And Title

    (12:31) When Did James First Consider Himself To Be The Head of Macro?

    (20:21) Greenlight's Two Loans To Fishback (Totaling $337,346.12 Before Accrued Interest, Totaling $345,698.65 After Accrued Interest)

    (23:48) Van Eck Ad

    (24:28) How To Define "Running Macro Investing"

    (31:04) Written Evidence Of Greenlight Employees Referring To James As The "Head Of Macro"

    (50:15) James Considers David Einhorn's "Tweet Heard Round The World" an "Insult" And "A Lie"

    (56:52) Fishback: "I've Always Had The Itch To Be Entrepreneurial"

    (58:04) James' Resignation From Greenlight In Early August 2023

    (01:02:23) Fishback: A Billionaire Demanding That A Public University Take Down Content From A Student Organization Is A "Flagrant Violation Of The First Amendment"

    (01:03:23) Political Differences Between James Fishback And David Einhorn

    (01:10:17) James Fishback's Market Views: The Fed's "Lemonhead Problem"

    (01:14:07) Fishback: Fixed-Rate Liabilities And Floating-Rate Assets Means Fed's Interest Rate Hikes Have Actually Been Net Stimulative

    (01:19:17) Higher For Longer

    (01:27:05) Why James Thinks Donald Trump Will Win The 2024 Presidential Election

    (01:35:08) James' Bullish View On USD / JPY (Taking Advantage of Forward Curve)

    (01:42:12) Fishback's View Of U.S. Stock Market, AI, And Microsoft

    (01:46:37) Options & Path Dependency

    (01:48:29) View On Long-Term Bonds (Duration)

    __

    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.


    Mel Mattison: Asset Bubble Crescendo Until 2027 Collapse When U.S. Treasury Market Implodes May 20, 2024
    Show notes

    Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at https://vaneck.com/MOATFG.

    __

    Follow Mel Mattison on Twitter https://x.com/MelMattison1

    Mel Mattison’s book https://www.melmattison.com/quoz

    Follow VanEck on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneck_us

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    Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_

    __

    Timestamps:

    (00:00) Introduction

    (00:37) Mel’s Background

    (04:13) The More Debt Is Created, The More Investors Want It (Story of Past 50 Years)

    (06:59) Mel On Gold And Stock Market

    (11:31) Inflating The Debt Away: The 1940s Playbook

    (14:30) The Pre-Bretton Woods “Sterling Standard”

    (17:36) Offshore Dollars (“Eurodollars”)

    (24:23) The Debt Spiral: Comparison to 1920s

    (27:56) VanEck Ad

    (28:38) Why Now?

    (37:01) Great Depression

    (43:24) Social Security = Ticking Time Bomb, Mel Argues

    (48:30) Isn’t There A Self-Regulating Cycle Where Rising Bond Yields Slow Down The Economy (Which In Turn Creates Demand For Duration & Cash)?

    (59:14) Timing: 2027

    (01:04:52) Social Security Funding

    (01:17:01) Gold and Inflation

    (01:28:22) Mel’s Book, QUOZ

    __

    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.



    Nick Givanovic: Treasury Bonds Are “Historically Unattractive” To Leveraged Investors May 16, 2024
    Show notes

    Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck.

    Learn more about VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) http://vaneck.com/HODLFG.

    VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) Prospectus: https://vaneck.com/us/hodlprospectus.

    __

    Follow Nick Givanovic on Twitter https://twitter.com/nickgiva1

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    __

    Timestamps:

    (00:00) Introduction

    (00:30) Nick Favors Stocks Over Bonds Until He Sees Data That Say Otherwise

    (05:25) Potential For An Bond Auction Failure

    (06:44) U.S Government Borrowing: Treasury Bills vs. Treasury Coupons

    (21:49) Conditions At Recent Treasury Market Auctions

    (25:13) Short Bonds, But Not Wildly Bearish

    (26:13) VanEck Ad

    (27:14) Is Yield Curve Steepener Trade Positive Carry or Negative Carry?

    (28:43) Inflation Volatility Is Bad For Term Premia

    (33:13) Bull Steepener vs. Bear Steepener: How Will The Yield Curve Uninvert?

    (39:10) Bull Steepeners Usually Occur Faster Than Bear Steepeners (Nick Thinks Bull Steepener Could Be More Likely)

    (54:24) Volatility In The Bond Market

    (01:02:21) Relative to Bonds, Nick Is Bullish On Stocks

    (01:07:49) The Labor Market

    (01:09:53) GameStop and the Return of Meme Stocks

    __

    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.


    Why The Dollar Will Be The “Last Man Standing” Of Fiat Currencies | Keith Dicker May 14, 2024
    Show notes

    Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck.

    Learn more about VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) http://vaneck.com/HODLFG.

    VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) Prospectus: https://vaneck.com/us/hodlprospectus.

    __

    Follow Keith Dicker on Twitter https://twitter.com/IceCapGlobal

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    Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_

    __

    Timestamps

    (00:00) Introduction

    (01:07) An Overview Of Currencies

    (09:19) The U.S. Dollar As A Hedge

    (20:14) The Bond Market Is Not Safe

    (25:41) Economic Outlook

    (29:27) VanEck Ad

    (30:28)

    (34:02) Central Banks Management Of Currencies

    (36:23) Emerging Market Currencies

    (42:12) U.S. Trade Deficit And Fiscal Deficit

    (45:08) Looking Back At Dollar Bear Market of 2000-2007

    (49:05) China Is Screwed: Dicker on Chinese Yuan (CNY)

    (01:00:27) View On Stock Market

    (01:02:42) Which Are You More Bearish On, The Euro Or The Yen?

    __


    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.


    Alfonso Peccatiello: The Fed Put Is Back, Bull Steepener Base Case May 09, 2024
    Show notes

    Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck.

    Learn more about VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) http://vaneck.com/HODLFG.

    VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) Prospectus: https://vaneck.com/us/hodlprospectus.

    __

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    Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_

    __

    Timestamps:

    (00:00) Introduction

    (00:24) Debt Service Ratio In U.S. Means Higher Interest Rates Haven't Caused Interest Expense To Skyrocket

    (02:37) The "Higher Interest Rates Are Stimulative" Argument Has Gone War Too Far

    (06:45) Outside Of The U.S., Higher Interest Rates Already HAVE Had A Big Effect

    (08:46) Private Debt, Not Public Debt, Is The Cause Of Most Modern Financial Crises

    (11:23) Eurozone Countries Can't Print Their Own Currency The Way A Monetary Sovereign Can

    (14:04) Is Government Deficit The Surplus Of The Private Sector?

    (21:43) VanEck ad

    (22:50) Making Money And Being Right Are Often Different Things

    (25:13) Is Private Sector Investment "Crowded Out" By Government Borrowing?

    (26:51) The Four Factors That Impact Interest Rate Sensitivity Of An Economy

    (29:53) U.S. Recession Risk Is Underpriced By Interest Rate Futures Market

    (32:28) If Nominal GDP Comes In Below Consensus, Stocks Could Rally (Rather Than Sell-off)

    (37:16) Macro Carry Strategies

    (42:52) The Case For A Bull Steepener (Short-Term Yields Fall More Than Long-Term Yields)

    (44:45) Weighing Probabilities Of Soft Landing vs. Recession vs. No Landing

    __

    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.




    Andy Constan: The Bond Market Will Take The Stock Market Down With It May 06, 2024
    Show notes

    Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck.

    Learn more about VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) http://vaneck.com/HODLFG.

    VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) Prospectus: https://vaneck.com/us/hodlprospectus.

    __

    Follow Andy Constan on Twitter https://twitter.com/dampedspring

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    __

    Timestamps:

    (00:00) Introduction

    (00:16) The Script

    (02:49) Andy's Current View: Bearish On Stocks And Bonds, Bullish on Two-Year Notes

    (04:17) Bond Market Might Be Underpricing The Chance Of A Recession

    (07:29) Treasury Plumbing (Quarterly Refunding Announcement)

    (13:10) At What Point Will Buyers Return To The Treasury Market?

    (17:13) VaEck Ad

    (18:15) How To Trade Something That Has So Many Drivers (Such As S&P 500)

    (22:35) Stock Bond Correlation

    (30:17) May Fed Meeting

    (31:36) Odds That The Fed Hikes In 2024 (Rather Than Cuts)

    (33:28) Andy Likes Two Year Notes Even Though He Thinks The Fed Could Not Cut At All This Year

    (34:59) Andy Gets In-The-Weeds On Options-Implied Path of Fed Policy

    (39:05) What Would It Take For Andy To Become Bullish On Stocks?

    (41:24) Gold's Sudden Rise

    (44:53) The Japanese Yen

    (46:54) The Pressures On Interest Rates Will Emanate From The United States

    (47:37) Chinese Equity Market

    (49:35) Fed's Decision To Taper Quantitative Tightening (QT)


    __

    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.


    Investing For A Recession-Free Future | Vincent Deluard on Secularly-High Inflation, China’s Currency Crisis, and The Long-Term Debt Cycle May 02, 2024
    Show notes

    Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck.

    Learn more about VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) http://vaneck.com/HODLFG.

    VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) Prospectus: https://vaneck.com/us/hodlprospectus.

    __

    Follow Vincent Deluard on Twitter https://twitter.com/VincentDeluard

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    __

    Timestamps:

    (00:00) Introduction

    (12:50) Does China Face A Choice Between Deflation And Devaluation?

    (19:38) VanEck Ad

    (20:39) The Long-Term Debt Cycle

    (29:30) How To Invest For A Recession Free Future

    (34:40) Lags In Healthcare And Shelter Measures of Inflation

    (42:03) The Fed

    (55:20) Age Of Secularly High Inflation

    (01:04:20) The Japanese Yen

    (01:17:20) Asset Allocation Within Equity Space


    __

    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.



    Powell’s Last Stand | Danielle DiMartino Booth on May Fed Meeting 2024 May 01, 2024
    Show notes

    For access to 20% discount to annual subscription of Danielle DiMartino Booth’s “Daily Feather”: https://dimartinobooth.substack.com/forward

    Or use code “FORWARD” at checkout. Deal expires on May 23, 2024. 20% discount applies to first year subscription.

    __

    Follow Danielle DiMartino Booth on Twitter https://twitter.com/DiMartinoBooth

    Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96

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    Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_

    __

    Timestamps:

    (00:00) Introduction

    (01:46) The QT Taper

    (05:25) Was The May FOMC Meeting A Dovish or a Hawkish Meeting?

    (09:01) The Fed Is Now Focusing On The Softening Labor Market, Argues Danielle DiMartino Booth

    (22:53) U.S. Economy Entered Recession In October, Argues Danielle DiMartino Booth

    (29:53) Consumer Spending

    (33:11) Layoffs in 2024

    (36:22) New Neutral Rate Of Interest

    (38:32) Private Equity & Private Credit

    (47:07) The Bernanke Doctrine

    (51:24) Basel III Endgame

    (56:33) Dissents

    __

    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.



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