Stay ConnectedFed Watch is a weekly podcast with Bitcoin Magazine’s Podcast Editor CK and Historian/Economist Ansel Lindner of Bitcoinand Markets.com.
Ck and Ansel interview the best analysts, traders, and thinks in both Macro economics and Bitcoin as well as give the audience their takes of important news and press conferences in the macro space.
This is the perfect podcast to learn about and stay on top of Bitcoin, Macro Economics, and the world at large.
This podcast episode was recorded as a primer for Greg’s appearance at the B21 The Bitcoin Macro Landscape Panel. If you couldn’t make the conference, make sure to catch the Bitcoin 2021 YouTube live stream for day one and for day two.
In this podcast recorded on May 25th, Bitcoin Magazine’s Head of Research Dylan LeClair had a discussion with credit market expert Greg Foss to discuss the macro landscape surrounding bitcoin.
Greg holds over 30 years of experience in credit markets, and his breadth of knowledge was put on full display during the podcast as the two discussed leverage in the financial system, investment strategies and hedging optionality using a small long VOL allocation with a majority bitcoin position, and bitcoin as the ultimate solution to the fiat ponzi. The two also discussed the recent event of legendary macro investor Ray Dalio saying he would rather own Bitcoin than a bond, and what it means for the investment community.
This discussion is not one you want to miss. For more of Greg’s work, checkout his report tilted, Why Every Fixed Income Investor Needs To Consider Bitcoin As Portfolio Insurance, as well as tune in to his panel discussion with Preston Pysh, Jeff Booth Mark Yusko, and Trey Lockerbie on the Nakamoto Stage at 9:10am EST ( livestream link: here).
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In this episode of Bitcoin Magazine’s “Fed Watch” podcast, hosts Christian Keroles and Ansel Lindner welcome on to the show Parker Lewis, Head of Business Development at Unchained Capital. The main topic of this episode is supply chains, the importance of a pricing mechanism within supply chains, and of course, bitcoin’s superior ability to act as that pricing mechanism.
Parker tells the story of how central banks distort price signals, which is very important because price signals are the root of all economic activity. It is the breakdown in a valid pricing mechanism that forms a competitive environment in which a new money can emerge.
Next, we get into the important topic of how a new money incentivizes convergence away from the existing money toward a new money. We will have to have Parker back on soon because we didn’t have time to fully explore these ideas. New money is volatile and will initially not act as a good pricing mechanism. So if it is competing on that ground, it is not clear how the new money breaks into its role without a total collapse in the previous medium of exchange.
Also in this episode, Parker comments quite a bit on the incompetence of the Fed. He eloquently points out how central bankers are wrong every step of the way and how the market will route around the damage with bitcoin. I bring the thought experiment that, perhaps the Fed is always wrong because they have already been routed around and are not in control of anything. The only control they have is illusory and contained in mantras like, “don’t fight the Fed.” That idea didn’t get far with Parker but we had a nice conversation about it.
We end the episode with getting Parker’s thoughts on the bitcoin business climate. Fundamentals are extremely strong and we are all excited about coming price increases and growth in the bitcoin ecosystem. All that is well covered, so we wanted to ask Parker about any weaknesses he sees out there in bitcoin and where he thinks the bitcoin industry will improve the most in the coming 12-24 months. You’ll have to listen to get his insider’s take.
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Do not forget to subscribe to the new Fed Watch: Bitcoin and Macro new feed. Search for “Fed Watch - Bitcoin and Macro” on your podcast app.
In this episode of Bitcoin Magazine’s “Fed Watch” podcast, hosts Christian Keroles and Ansel Lindner welcome back to the show Jeff Snider, Head of Global Research at Alhambra Partners. Jeff writes a great blog at Alhambra, is syndicated elsewhere, and creates a very thought provoking podcast with Emil Kalinowski called Making Sense: Eurodollar University.
Jeff is the foremost expert on the Eurodollar system, the large global financial system based around the off-shore dollar. The history and data he marshals to back his analysis of the monetary system is second to none. There is no other guest with his extensive and recallable knowledge of the Federal Reserve, so he is the perfect guest for Fed Watch.
That being said, in this episode we start off by getting an update on the world of high-powered monetary plumbing, specifically we want to know if we are in a reflationary cycle. Other pundits out there in macro will use terms like K-shaped or L-shaped recovery when speaking about a reflationary cycle. Some things look K-shaped, meaning certain populations have recovered while remaining very bad for others, namely the poorest among us. An L-shaped recovery means there has been no discernible bounce in the recovery at all. Jeff navigates through these distinctions and gives a great breakdown of the situation out there.
Next, we move right into a discussion on CBDCs (Central Bank Digital Currencies). These are new forms of digital currency provided by the central domestic regulator of each currency, the central bank. Jeff has been covering these developments more in his content recently. It is a large topic and here we only scratch the surface. One aspect I bring up specifically is the fact that the dollar has a vibrant private issuance of a stablecoin digital dollar, while other currencies cannot claim the same. It is those other central banks, particularly the ECB and the Euro, that are pursuing a CBDC the most aggressively. The market is providing roughly $100bn in “digital dollars”, no one seems to want digital euros badly enough to produce them privately. We get Jeff’s opinion on the fact that the central banks most scared about losing market share of their currency in the next 5-10 years to a private digital dollar, are those central banks pursuing CBDCs the most aggressively.
In the rest of our wide-ranging conversation we cover the interest rate fallacy, very important to understanding the monetary system as it is, and we try to dissect “asset price inflation”. It is currently the case that any increase in price will be called inflation by the inflationists while ignoring all the hidden wealth destruction and deflation. You really have to listen to this one. It is short but very dense.
The common theme to much of Jeff’s content emphasizes how little we know about the functioning of the dollar system, and claims of inflation versus deflation often gloss over the obvious reality that growth is nowhere to be found. We are trapped in a low-growth environment with pressure
Do not forget to subscribe to the new Fed Watch: Bitcoin and Macro new feed. Search for Fed Watch - Bitcoin and Macro” on your podcast app.
In this episode of Bitcoin Magazine’s “Fed Watch” podcast, hosts Christian Keroles and Ansel Lindner sit down with Alex Gladstein, Chief Strategy Officer at the Human Rights Foundation. We dive deeply into the Petrodollar, its history, implications for the future, and lessons that we can apply to thinking about bitcoin’s growing role in the global financial system. Read Alex’s great Petrodollar post on Bitcoin Magazine, Uncovering the Hidden Costs of the Petrodollar.
The Petrodollar reentered the alternative financial discussion in 2003 with the invasion of Iraq. We were told the invasion was due to the presence of weapons of mass destruction (WMDs) and the funding of terrorism by Saddam Hussein. However, as it turned out, Saddam was also beginning to sell oil for Euros. That was a major break of international protocol, since the US-Saudi oil deal in 1974, where oil was to be priced in and sold for dollars.
This special US-Saudi relationship became known as the petrodollar and replaced the gold dollar ended a few years before in 1971 by President Nixon.
There is so much to unpack about this event and the era in which it happened. Alex walks us through some of the basics also found in his piece, and then we start to ask some more systemic questions. Instead of rehashing all the details, we focus on broad macroeconomic effects.
Of course, we cover the many negative impacts of the petrodollar system mainly through US military involvement to maintain the agreement, but people rarely stop to think about it from a monetary angle. A single currency is extremely efficient for global trade, it is also extremely beneficial to emerging markets to be able to borrow in US dollars which the international system can print.
Alex digs into some of those negatives and the hosts push back slightly, saying it wasn’t all negative. One question you won’t hear anywhere else is when Ansel asks about the very real threat at the time, in 1974, of the Soviets signing a similar deal with Saudi instead of the Americans. Saudi did not like the US at all, a deal with the Soviets was more obvious. All the evils of the petrodollar would have been magnified if the communists, who killed millions of their own people, would have been able to set up a “petro-ruble”. You have to listen to hear Alex Gladstein’s response to that one.
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iTunes: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/fed-watch-bitcoin-and-macro/id1543640492
Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCtOV5M-T3GcsJAq8QKaf0lg
Bitcoin
Do not forget to subscribe to the new Fed Watch: Bitcoin and Macro new feed. Search for “Fed Watch - Bitcoin and Macro” on your podcast app.
In this episode of Bitcoin Magazine’s “Fed Watch” podcast, hosts Christian Keroles and Ansel Lindner sit down with Dylan Leclair from Bitcoin Magazine. Dylan is the writer of, “The Conclusion of the Long-Term Debt Cycle and the Rise of Bitcoin,” an article on Bitcoin Magazine using Ray Dalio’s long-term debt cycle to look at the current system and how bitcoin fits in. Dylan is a great example of the growing Bitcoin Magazine community; spreading valuable content to beginners, who in turn become the valuable content producers.
After some introductions, Dylan begins by walking through short-term versus long-term debt cycles. Most people will be familiar with the idea of business cycles. These are periods of seven to ten years, where the economy expands and contracts, recovery and recession. Those are the short-term cycles. We all live through several of them in our lifetimes.
However, the long-term debt cycles can be anywhere between 75 to 100 years in length. These cycles are due to each individual short-term cycle not completely clearing the bad debts and misallocations of capital out of the system. Every 75 to 100 years a larger bust finally resets the economy more deeply. It happens so infrequently, no one personally remembers the last cycle, so no one other than economic historians are around to warn everyone.
Do not forget to subscribe to the new Fed Watch: Bitcoin and Macro new feed. Search for “Fed Watch - Bitcoin and Macro” on your podcast app.
In this episode of Bitcoin Magazine’s Fed Watch podcast, hosts Christian Keroles and Ansel Lindner listen and react to several clips from the Jerome Powell 60 Minutes interview. All audio is used under Fair Use and we add our commentary to it. You can get the full interview here and the Youtube playlist of clips here.
Jay Powell, Chairman of the Federal Reserve, appeared on 60 Minutes this week. The interview seemed to be a public relations attempt by the Fed. It fell one year after the Corona Crash of 2020.
Ansel and Christian take three clips and break them down in unapologetic fashion. The first clip is amazing because Powell says they see the same persistent issues today which were present back during the Great Financial Crisis, and if they keep coming up they might as well fix them. This comment got our blood boiling. It was not as if they did not try their best to fix it back after the GFC. What makes them think they’ll be able to fix it this time?
China Digital Yuan Will Co-Exist With Alipay, WeChat, PBOC Says https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-03-25/china-digital-yuan-will-co-exist-with-alipay-wechat-pboc-says
China Asks Banks to Curtail Credit for Rest of Year https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-04-06/china-is-said-to-ask-banks-to-curtail-credit-for-rest-of-year
ECB tries to dispel myths about CBDC https://www.finextra.com/newsarticle/37744/ecb-bids-to-bust-cbdc-myths
Lagarde Says Market Can Test ECB Resolve as Much as It Wants https://archive.ph/SyLZK
Treasury General Account balance https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WTREGEN
In this episode of Bitcoin Magazine’s Fed Watch podcast, Christian Keroles and Ansel Lindner reminisce about the year on the podcast so far and cover recent developments from the major central banks of the world.
There have been so many great guests on Fed Watch this year so far that span a unique swath of bitcoin and macro. If you haven’t listened to these past episodes, subscribe and check out the back catalog. This year’s list of guests includes Max Kaiser, Nik Bhatia, Michael Lebowitz, Elliot Johnson, Mark Moss, Greg Foss, and Daniel Prince.
Fed Watch has established itself as the bitcoin podcast which goes past the surface arguments about the monetary system, uncovering uncomfortable topics and diving deeply into how bitcoin will reshape that system. The main part of this episode is summarizing central bank related news for the last month, particularly the People’s Bank of China (PBOC), the European Central Bank (ECB), and the Federal Reserve.
Thanks for listening. Make sure to visit our Sponsor b.tc/conference and find our new RSS feed!
Written by Ansel Lindner
Economist, author and bitcoin specialist. Find more from Ansel at the Bitcoin & Markets podcast (bitcoinandmarkets.com), the BitcoinDictionary.cc, and macro blog Bitcoin & Markets Research (BTCM.co).
Do not forget to subscribe to the new Fed Watch: Bitcoin and Macro new feed. Search for “Fed Watch - Bitcoin and Macro” on your podcast app.
iTunes: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/fed-watch-bitcoin-and-macro/id1543640492
Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCtOV5M-T3GcsJAq8QKaf0lg
Bitcoin Magazine: https://bitcoinmagazine.com
Once Bitten Podcast w/ Daniel Prince https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/once-bitten/id1497540130
In this episode of Bitcoin Magazine’s Fed Watch podcast, Christian Keroles and Ansel Lindner sit down with Daniel Prince, host of the Once Bitten podcast. Daniel offers a perspective from his unique experience, starting from a successful career in global Forex and trading, to traveling the world for years with four kids, and now host of a bitcoin maximalist podcast interviewing many great bitcoiners.
This episode discusses a wide range of macroeconomic topics at a high level using bitcoin as the central force. Daniel represents the demographic of people entering bitcoin, professionals with experience with money markets and a concern about the current system and its effects.
Fifteen years in Singapore enabled Daniel to meet influential macro experts and be exposed to a sound money culture, being that gold is more respected in the Far East. He relates his experience getting red-pilled about fiat money, fiat education, and fiat food. It seems that fiat delusions are infecting all aspects of society and culture. The conversation takes a dark turn when discussing what a collapse of the fiat Ponzi looks like when the topic of depopulation comes up, but we quickly turn this back to the positive by discussing how bitcoin will help the world.
Mr. Prince brings up Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDC) in the latter half of the episode and that brings us back to Fed Watch’s bread and butter. We all agreed that CBDCs are a central bank attack on banks, and in that event, banks will win. They have the opportunity to wield the new weapon of bitcoin against the central banks. This is a much different way to answer the Fear Uncertainty and Doubt (FUD) spread by nocoiners about bitcoin being attacked by governments.
Fed Watch has established itself as the bitcoin podcast which goes past the surface arguments about the monetary system, uncovering uncomfortable topics and diving deeply into how bitcoin will reshape that system. It brings on exciting guests from all corners of macro to discuss the most important topic in finance today.
Thanks for listening. Make sure to visit our Sponsor b.tc/conference and find our new RSS feed!
Written by Ansel Lindner
Economis
Do not forget to subscribe to the new Fed Watch: Bitcoin and Macro new feed. Search for “Fed Watch - Bitcoin and Macro” on your podcast app.
iTunes: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/fed-watch-bitcoin-and-macro/id1543640492
Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCtOV5M-T3GcsJAq8QKaf0lg
Bitcoin Magazine: https://bitcoinmagazine.com
Greg Foss Bitcoin Valuation Thesis as Portfolio Insurance https://rockstarinnercircle.com/foss/
LinkedIn https://www.linkedin.com/in/greg-foss-a553ab32/
In this episode of Bitcoin Magazine’s Fed Watch podcast, Christian Keroles and Ansel Lindner speak with Greg Foss, who “has a 30-year history in banks, bonds and the credit markets as a whole. His insights around Bitcoin and the state of the banking industry and the global economy are amazing.” The second Canadian in 3 episodes, Fed Watch is bringing great North American bitcoiners with unique perspectives on to discuss all aspects of how bitcoin is meeting the challenges of entering the central bank dominated financial world.
In this conversation, we first learn a little bit about Greg’s background in banking. He began his career in 1988 working for the Royal Bank of Canada (RBC) where he quickly realized it was insolvent due to their exposure to the Latin American Financial Crisis. He went on to work for and found many influential financial firms in Canada over the next 30 years, until he found bitcoin in 2016.
The reason Fed Watch wanted to speak with Greg Foss is his interesting valuation thesis for bitcoin which you can find on his website linked above. It centers around bitcoin as portfolio insurance for fixed income investors. In this episode, the listener will get a master class on Credit Default Swap (CDS) spreads and pricing.
Today, the CDS market is the way the financial industry prices risk in the credit market in the attempt to make homogeneous investable products for fixed income investors. The problem is when financial conditions change, which they very often do, these prices move, forcing investors to react and kicking off a downward spiral in prices. It is a very unstable framework. Foss highlights that bitcoin is a perfect fit in this market to reduce risk and act as a hedge during the inevitable periods of market instability.
Another aspect Greg concentrates on is the unworkable mathematics of global debt. He uses an example that the global economy, which has stayed under 5% per year since 1976, must get to levels approaching growth of 12% simply to service the current debt. In this world, there will be defaults, the system will have to readjust, and that readjustment will be painful.
In the second half of this episode, we touch on Central Bank D
Do not forget to subscribe to the new Fed Watch: Bitcoin and Macro new feed. Search for “Fed Watch - Bitcoin and Macro” on your podcast app.
iTunes: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/fed-watch-bitcoin-and-macro/id1543640492
In this episode of Bitcoin Magazine’s Fed Watch podcast, Christian Keroles and Ansel Lindner speak with Mark Moss who is a serial entrepreneur with a specialty in real estate and investing. We picked his brain about bitcoin as an asset class, monetary and fiscal policy in the US, and what the future 12-24 months has in store.
Mark Moss says he sees high inflation and a systemic breakdown coming soon due to several factors. Ansel and Christian press him for more clarity. Is there a tipping point we will unmistakably notice in the future? What if velocity never picks up and inflation in most of the economy is muted for an extended period?
Ansel, Christian and Mark spend the next 15 minutes going back and forth, trying to get to a more concrete view of just how the next 12-24 months will proceed.
Thanks for listening. Make sure to visit our Sponsor stacks2.com and find our new RSS feed!
Written by Ansel Lindner
Economist, author and bitcoin specialist. Find more from Ansel at the Bitcoin & Markets podcast (bitcoinandmarkets.com), the BitcoinDictionary.cc, and macro blog Bitcoin & Markets Research (BTCM.co).
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