Stay ConnectedFed Watch is a weekly podcast with Bitcoin Magazine’s Podcast Editor CK and Historian/Economist Ansel Lindner of Bitcoinand Markets.com.
Ck and Ansel interview the best analysts, traders, and thinks in both Macro economics and Bitcoin as well as give the audience their takes of important news and press conferences in the macro space.
This is the perfect podcast to learn about and stay on top of Bitcoin, Macro Economics, and the world at large.
In this episode of Bitcoin Magazine’s “Fed Watch'' podcast, Christian Keroles and I sit down with Dylan LeClair to go over on-chain data from his popular Deep Dive newsletter. We also tied it into some macro topics involving bitcoin and central banking. Once again, this was recorded LIVE on the Bitcoin Magazine YouTube channel. If you’d like to watch live, subscribe there and follow us on Twitter to get updates of times we will be on. As we get a hang of Livestreaming the show, we will be able to answer live questions from the chat for audience interaction.
In this episode of Bitcoin Magazine’s “Fed Watch'' podcast, Christian Keroles and I sit down for our first ever livestream as part of the new Bitcoin Magazine livestream. Going forward, we will be recording live at approximately 2pm eastern time every Tuesday. Come join us and as we get a hang of it, we might be able to answer live questions from the chat.
This week we go on a whirlwind tour of macro. First, we listen and respond to three clips of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s testimony in front of Congress where he retired the term “transitory”. Next, we do a quick reading from an IMF blog post on the debt crisis in low-income countries. Third, we discuss the central bank of China, the PBoC, cutting their reserve requirement ratio (RRR) by 50 bps and the default of Evergrande. Lastly, we riff on bitcoin and cover several of our ongoing thesis about macro and geopolitics, why we are bullish on the US and bearish on Europe. Huge live show, I think you all will really enjoy this one.
We have three clips of Powell that we listen to. Each allows us to discuss different aspects of the Fed, their monetary policy, and perhaps tease out their inner thoughts. So many pundits and analysts of the Fed don’t even watch the actual testimony. They get riled up by headlines or some journalist’s take of what Powell said. The general, sound-money oriented public has a bias of thinking these people are evil. We think central bankers are misguided and partial, but we actually watch the testimony to form our own opinions, and take you along with us.
Our discussion includes parts on transitory or not, a global low interest rate environment, inflation forecasting problems based on non-linear supply side effects, and whether the taper will be accelerated or not.
In a blog post on December 2nd, IMF President Kristalina Georgieva, says, “We may see economic collapse in some countries unless G20 creditors agree to accelerate debt restructurings and suspend debt service while the restructurings are being negotiated.”
This is very worrying. These countries have had 12-18 months of deferment on their international loans, yet they still cannot pay them? If they are unable to pay them after a year-long deferment, what makes anyone think that restructuring will help?
These countries are in real trouble, and that fits with our thesis that emerging markets benefitted over the last 50 years of an easy credit environment. Now that the easy credit environment is over, they are going to face extreme burdens in continuing their previous level of economic activity.
Our last stop is China. We covered the Fed, we brought Europe into our discussion, and now we cover the People’s Bank of China. This week they announced a 50 bps cut to their Reserve Requirement Ratio (RRR) freeing up ¥1.2 trillion in the hopes that banks will go out and lend.
This follows a similar cut
In this episode of Bitcoin Magazine’s “Fed Watch'' podcast, Christian Keroles and I sit down with Tom Luongo of Gold Goats & Guns to talk about Europe and central bank politics. We go into the weeds, what’s happening behind closed doors as it were, in a discussion you won’t find on any other show. Tom’s theories revolve around his idea of the primarily European/Western elites which he sums up as Davos man. It’s a wide-ranging discussion which I outline below.
You can find all of Tom’s content on his website. I recommend going back to episode 75-77 to get a summary of Davos man and his geopolitical framework. Tom is a long time bitcoin advocate, so of course, we discuss what bitcoin means geopolitically in this time of great change.
I read a post from Tom Luongo that was syndicated to Zerohedge several months ago. In that post he was calling the European elites “Davos man”. I was struck by this framing, because it perfectly sums up the elites of the declining world order in my general geopolitical framework. Tom describes them as, “all the people who think they run the world.” Their calling cards are globalization, international institutions (like NATO, the EU and the UN), climate change, and a global tax regime. He sums it up as “communists”, I’d add to that that they are global communists.
The goal of Davos is to reverse WWII, where European economies were destroyed and capital fled to the US. This time, they want to cause global chaos outside of Europe, and make the EU the center for capital flight in the coming decades.
Tom frames the current struggle as a battle between Davos man and Wall St. Powell is not Janet Yellen; he is loyal to US money interests in a way that contradicts Davos’ full court press against the world.
Tom filled in our blanks on why Powell is different. For the last year, Christian and I, on FedWatch have been saying Powell is a “straight shooter”. We sensed he was different than the typical central bank elite. Now I see that this central banking elite is part of the Davos world order.
Powell has stiff-armed Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) and provided monetary facilities that have maintained US dollar dominance in the global financial system. Tom goes into why his renomination is so important, because it is like drawing a red line, the US will not play Davos’ game anymore. Cinderella favorite Lael Brainard, who was passed up for Chairman because her appointment by the Senate was questionable, and her deep connections to the CCP through her husband have surfaced.
In the second half of the show, our conversation gets into the weeds on specific hotspots around the world. We and Tom are in agreement that Europe is in a lot of trouble. But where I am concerned about Russia’s natural geopolitical drive for strategic depth and their waning demographic time bomb, Luongo is not as worried because Russia does not want to be dragged into a war. To give you an idea of the ground we cover quickly at the end of the podcast, we brought in Afghanistan and why that was such a pivotal event,
After a week off due to illness, we’re back with a new episode of Bitcoin Magazine’s “Fed Watch'' podcast. In this one, Christian Keroles and I sit down to talk about the mysterious competitive world of central banking. Topics include Powell’s reappointment and, funnily enough, what it means for the ECB. There is an epic pivot in loyalties happening right now, as the Fed takes to heart its role as the US central bank and distances itself from a responsibility to Europe.
0:00 Welcome to Fed Watch #71
1:30 Comparing US Inflation to the ECB and BOJ
2:55 Tom Luongo the next Fed Watch Guest
3:38 Reappointing Jerome Powell as Federal Reserve Chairman
7:33 Central Banks Adressen Stabl eCoins, Bitcoin And Crypto Assets
12:37 The ECB and Central Bank digital Currencies
13:07 Europe is under Pressure
16:53 Bitcoin can Benefit from The current Situation in the EU
18:28 Speculative Attacks with Bitcoin
22:36 Europe in the weakest Makro Position
23:45 The Current Bitcoin Price Action
28:51 Go Follow: @AnselLindner & @Ck_Snarks
We start the episode with our first trivia winner. I wanted people to answer the question, if central bank balance sheets matter, why are the ECB and BOJ’s inflation rates lower and balance sheets higher relative to GDP than the US’s? Mitch (@wittyusername30) had the best answer. Congratulations. To paraphrase: central banks don’t print money, they swap inert reserves for useful collateral. This has a deflationary pressure on the economy. Powell gets renominated as Chairman Powell was renominated by Biden for Fed Chairman, winning out over his competition, Lael Brainard. Several reasons were cited, like Powell's path through Senate confirmation is much easier, while Lael might meet with a split vote along partisan lines in a 50/50 Senate. Also, officials said Powell was being “rewarded” with another term for successfully shepherding the economy through the 2020 Covid recession. I view this appointment as having a deeper meaning.
1) We’ve talked at length on this show about Powell’s refusal to go along with the Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) hype. Other central banks are pushing hard for CBDC, and Powell continuously splashes cold water on that idea. This symbolizes a break with globalist interests in favor of American banking interests.
2) Powell has faced rising Progressive opposition from Congress. Crazies, like Sen. Elizabeth Warren, have attacked him because he is not dovish enough and not buying into the Fed’s role in climate policy. His reappointment is a repudiation of sorts against Progressives and their toxic ESG initiatives.
3) Lael is the more globalist-friendly choice. Powell symbolizes a break with globalists to a more America-centric policy. ECB Regulation and Panic Next, we jump right into ECB news. This week they released a new regulatory framework for electronic payments. The Eurosystem will use the new framework to oversee companies enabling or supporting the use of payment cards, credit transfers, direct debits, e-money transfers and digital payment tokens, including electronic wallets. The PISA framework will also cover crypto-asset-related services, such as the acceptance of crypto-assets by merchants within a card payment scheme and the option to send, receive or pay with crypto-assets via an electronic wallet. ECB Press Release This stands in stark contrast to the US, where the White House and Treasury tried to carve out a bitcoin exception in the recent Infrastructure Bill, which ironically was thwarted by altcoiners wanting to protect scams that are Decentralized In Name Only (DINOs). The ECB is scared that the Euro will lose market share in the years to come, whittling away their “monetary sovereignty”. They want to block competition from dollar stablecoins and bitcoin, while at the same time provide the market with a digital Euro. A digital Euro the market hasn’t
In this episode of Bitcoin Magazine’s “Fed Watch'' podcast, Christian Keroles and I sat down to give an update on Fed news and central bank activity around the world. Topics in this episode include, people at the Federal Reserve and their positions, the Fed Stability Report, Treasury curve update and inversions, the inflation narrative, ECB and BoJ updates, and of course, bitcoin.
First, Christian and I debriefed the recent Bitcoin Day event in Kansas City where I spoke about the end of the dollar system as we know it. It was a great event, with another one coming up in Sacramento early next year. I might try getting one down in Jacksonville next year as well, so be watching out for that.
Next, we jump right into Fed news, starting with the resignation of Quarles. This was kind of a surprise since he had over 10 years left in his term. He has recently faced some backlash from progressive members of Congress, along with Powell, as slightly more hawkish members of the Fed who ignore MMT (modern monetary theory) nut-jobs.
This resignation has a chess move aspect to it. Brainard, who has recently been threatening to take Powell’s job as Chairman, was first favored for Quarles’ position as Head of Supervision. With him gone, Brainard now has an easy path to simply fill that role, leaving Powell basically uncontested for the Chairman reappointment.
These moves might seem insignificant to those who are unaware of the shifting tide within the central bank elite. Most central bankers around the world are looking to MMT and CBDCs (central bank digital currencies) as a way to break out of the debt trap and deflationary environment which the world finds itself in. Powell has the most important central bank job in the world. He has been standing in the way of that dangerous agenda. In a similar fashion to a geopolitical realignment, from NATO to AUKUS, Powell appears to represent the same division, from global concerns to national, within the central bank elites.
This week the Federal Reserve published their biannual Stability Report. This report is meant to increase transparency of the Fed, to show the public what they are paying attention to, and what could possibly affect their monetary policy going forward. The main highlights from the report is the Fed’s warning about a rising risk to risk assets. Of course, the mainstream financial press is going to hop on that with their usual gusto.
Another interest warning from the report was about Evergrande and the rising risk of contagion out of China. We’ve been way ahead on this, talking about this very situation for months now. We all know the horrible shape that the Chinese economy is in, and that is slowly working its way into the mainstream investor consciousness.
In this episode of Bitcoin Magazine’s “Fed Watch'' podcast, Christian Keroles and I sat down with Dylan LeClair of Bitcoin Magazine’s Deep Dive once again. Dylan is one of the most familiar people with the niche between market technicals and bitcoin fundamentals. It was great to pick his brain over the current Federal Reserve taper and environment in which they are cutting rates. I include as many of the charts we talk about below, but you can also check out the episode on YouTube to see our screen shares.
Dylan was nice enough to share the link directly to his slides here, or check below in the LINKS section.
If you are in the Kansas City area, come out to Bitcoin Day to meet some bitcoiners, listen to some great talks, and network in the bitcoin space. Check out Bitcoinday.io.
Bank of Canada ends QE bond buying program, a sign that higher rates are coming https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/bank-of-canada-decision-1.6226796
Bank of England: Four scenarios for the November meeting https://think.ing.com/articles/bank-of-england-four-scenarios-for-the-november-meeting
Economic growth rate slows to 2% on a sharp slowdown in consumer spending https://www.cnbc.com/2021/10/28/us-gross-domestic-product-increases-at-2point0percent-annualized-pace-in-q3-vs-2point8percent-estimate.html
Predictit.org for Fed Chairman https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7398/Whom-will-the-Senate-next-confirm-as-Chair-of-the-Federal-Reserve
Dylan’s Slides
https://docs.google.com/presentation/d/1zsFh4dn3_RgCa2rvH7gE82nPiM_Z48NT2sjfcpqK4FM/edit?usp=sharing
---------------------------------------------
Bitcoin Magazine is back in print!
Get Bitcoin Magazine shipped directly to your front door!
Get 21% off
In this episode of Bitcoin Magazine’s “Fed Watch'' podcast, Christian Keroles and I sit down with Sam Rule for the first time. Sam is a new addition to the Bitcoin Magazine team, researching and writing on their Deep Dive letters and series. His areas of interest are macro and long-term debt cycles, so, we tackle topics like monetary vs fiscal policy, Federal Reserve taper, inflation vs deflation, CPI, labor market, and bond market. He provided a great slide deck of charts where we focus much of the discussion, you can find those here or at the link below, or watch along on YouTube.
---------------------------------------------
Bitcoin Magazine is back in print!
Get Bitcoin Magazine shipped directly to your front door!
Get 21% off with promo code: MAG21
https://store.bitcoinmagazine.com/discount/MAG21?redirect=%2Fproducts%2Fbitcoin-magazine-annual-subscription
"The Deep Dive" delivers the latest Bitcoin on-chain market intelligence directly to your inbox!
Get 1 Month free with promo code: PODCAST
https://deepdivebtc.substack.com/01e06e79
Bitcoin 2022 will be the biggest Bitcoin conference ever! Miami, FL from April 6–9, 2022
Get 15% off tickets with promo code: MAG21
https://b.tc/conference/
In this episode of Bitcoin Magazine’s “Fed Watch'' podcast, Christian Keroles and I get you up-to-speed on Jerome Powell’s reappointment as Chairman of the Federal Reserve, the recent leaks as an attempt to sabotage that reappointment, and news and the current state of monetary policy at the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of Japan (BoJ). Next, we have a lengthy conversation about the geopolitical developments as they pertain to the US, Europe, and the shift to the Pacific, tying in bitcoin as part of the coming great game. Of course, we cover the Bitcoin ETF (BITO) that launched this week. It’s a little bit of a different episode, kind of a “this is where we are in the world of central banking” discussion.
---------------------------------------------
Bitcoin Magazine is back in print!
Get Bitcoin Magazine shipped directly to your front door!
Get 21% off with promo code: MAG21
https://store.bitcoinmagazine.com/discount/MAG21?redirect=%2Fproducts%2Fbitcoin-magazine-annual-subscription
"The Deep Dive" delivers the latest Bitcoin on-chain market intelligence directly to your inbox!
Get 1 Month free with promo code: PODCAST
https://deepdivebtc.substack.com/01e06e79
Bitcoin 2022 will be the biggest Bitcoin conference ever! Miami, FL from April 6–9, 2022
Get 15% off tickets with promo code: MAG21
https://b.tc/conference/
In this episode of Bitcoin Magazine’s “Fed Watch'' podcast, Christian and I welcome back Greg Foss to the show to discuss his new articles he’s written on Bitcoin Magazine about Evergrande from a professional in the high yield credit space. We get to know Greg a little better in this one and discuss, not only the facts of the matter on Evergrande and high yield, but also his beloved Canada and some predictions of the future.
---------------------------------------------
Bitcoin Magazine is back in print!
Get Bitcoin Magazine shipped directly to your front door!
Get 21% off with promo code: MAG21
https://store.bitcoinmagazine.com/discount/MAG21?redirect=%2Fproducts%2Fbitcoin-magazine-annual-subscription
"The Deep Dive" delivers the latest Bitcoin on-chain market intelligence directly to your inbox!
Get 1 Month free with promo code: PODCAST
https://deepdivebtc.substack.com/01e06e79
Bitcoin 2022 will be the biggest Bitcoin conference ever! Miami, FL from April 6–9, 2022
Get 15% off tickets with promo code: MAG21
https://b.tc/conference/
In today's episode of Bitcoin Magazine’s FEDWATCH Podcast, Christian Keroles (CK) and Ansel Lindner are talking the Fed’s impending taper, global supply chains on the brink of collapse, China’s trade war with Australia, widespread blackouts, and so much more! Tuning in, you’ll hear our takes on the stories making headlines as we reflect on expectation management as a policy tool, inflation versus deglobalization, and the ripple effects that increased demand on the retail sector during COVID will have on the global energy crisis. We also touch on how Bitcoin could alleviate the manipulation of monetary policy, the dramatic consequences that a change in behavior can have on the market, and our predictions for bitcoin over the next few months as we continue our wild and bumpy ride, so make sure to tune in today!
---------------------------------------------
Bitcoin Magazine is back in print!
Get Bitcoin Magazine shipped directly to your front door!
Get 21% off with promo code: MAG21
https://store.bitcoinmagazine.com/discount/MAG21?redirect=%2Fproducts%2Fbitcoin-magazine-annual-subscription
"The Deep Dive" delivers the latest Bitcoin on-chain market intelligence directly to your inbox!
Get 1 Month free with promo code: PODCAST
https://deepdivebtc.substack.com/01e06e79
Bitcoin 2022 will be the biggest Bitcoin conference ever! Miami, FL from April 6–9, 2022
Get 15% off tickets with promo code: MAG21
https://b.tc/conference/
Our TOPPODCAST Picks 
