Excess Returns

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An In Depth Look at Asset Allocation with Jim Masturzo of Research Affiliates May 13, 2021

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We are currently in a very challenging time for building multi-asset portfolios. The 60-40 portfolios is coming off one of its best decades ever, but the expected future returns on both stocks and bonds are very low. And unprecedented monetary and fiscal stimulus have added additional variables into the equation. This week we talk to Jim Masturzo, who is a partner and head of multi-asset at Research Affiliates and also helped create their popular Asset Allocation Interactive tool, to try to make sense of all of this. We discuss their process for projecting expected returns and the challenge of building multi-asset portfolios in this environment, the role that potential future inflation plays in their process, and his thought process when looking at a new asset like Bitcoin. We hope you enjoy the discussion.

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Strategy Focus: Low Volatility Investing and the Conservative Formula May 09, 2021

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The success of of the low volatility factor can be challenging to explain. Investing theory teaches us that to get an additional return, we need to take additional risk and if we reduce risk, our return should come down with it. But low volatility seems to defy that rule. In this episode, we look at the low volatility factor, how it is defined, and why it works. We also look at how the returns of low volatility can be enhanced by combining it with other factors, and take an in depth look at our Multi-Factor Investor strategy on Validea, which is based on the paper The Conservative Formula by Pim van Vliet, and how it puts that idea into action.

We hope you enjoy the discussion.

ABOUT THE PODCAST

Excess Returns is an investing podcast hosted by Jack Forehand (@practicalquant) and Justin Carbonneau (@jjcarbonneau), partners at Validea. Justin and Jack discuss a wide range of investing topics including factor investing, value investing, momentum investing, multi-factor investing, trend following, market valuation and more with the goal of helping those who watch and listen become better long term investors.

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Six Potential Metrics to Help Limit Value Traps May 03, 2021

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Deep value investing is about buying companies that other investors don’t want. It is about investing in companies where the current situation doesn’t look great – actually in many cases it looks horrible. On average, investors tend to overestimate the problems in these types of businesses and as a result, stocks of these companies get cheap. But for some of these cheap companies, the situation is actually worse than what the market has priced in. These types of stocks are typically referred to as value traps. Although value traps come with the territory in value investing, the ability to limit them can have a positive impact on a value strategy. In this episode, we discuss some of the metrics we use to try to do that.

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Investing in Freedom in Emerging Markets with Perth Tolle, Founder of Life + Liberty Indexes Apr 29, 2021

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The emerging market universe includes a very diverse set of countries, many of which are sorely lacking in the types of freedom enjoyed by their people. Some of the biggest countries in emerging market indexes like China are also some of the worst offenders in this regard. It has been commonly accepted by many that investing in these types of companies is unavoidable for investors who want emerging market exposure and so most investors just ignore the behaviors of the regimes that run the countries within the space.

But what if you could invest in only the countries that are the most free within the space, and potentially boost your returns at the same time? We discuss this idea with Perth Tolle, the founder of Life + Liberty Indexes. Perth has developed a scoring system that ranks all emerging market countries based on their levels of freedom and has constructed an index that includes the highest scorers.

We discuss the story of how she came to create this index, the criteria that go into it and its potential to improve the world of emerging market investing.

We hope you enjoy the discussion.

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Academic Research Spotlight: Migration by Eugene Fama and Kenneth French Apr 25, 2021

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This week, we look at some interesting research that took a unique approach to explaining the value and size premiums. We examine the paper "Migration" by Eugene Fama and Kenneth French. The paper grouped stocks into categories based on their size and valuation and then looked at how the migration between those groups impacted both the value and size premiums. We take a look at what they found as well as the lessons investors can take from it.

We hope you enjoy the discussion.

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The Three Keys to Understanding Investing Bubbles Apr 18, 2021

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With the stock market at all-time highs and returns over the past year some of the best in history, the word "bubble" is getting thrown around more and more by investors. But before we jump to conclusions, it is first important to understand what a bubble is and what the term means from a practical standpoint for investors.

In this episode, we look at bubbles through a framework based on the three questions that we think are most important for investors to ask.

1. What is a Bubble?

2. Can a Bubble Be Identified in Advance?

3. If We Are in a Bubble, What Can I Do About It?

We hope you enjoy the discussion.

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A Detailed Look at All Weather Investing with Eric Crittenden Apr 15, 2021

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The last 40 years have been an exceptionally strong period for a portfolio of stocks and bonds. With stocks performing well and bonds benefitting from a tailwind of constantly falling interest rates, a portfolio consisting of only the two asset classes has been all investors have needed.

But a deeper look at market history reveals that there were significant periods where a standard stock and bond mix didn't serve investors well.

In this episode, we take a deep dive into the concept of all weather investing with Eric Crittenden of Standpoint Funds. All weather investing seeks to hold a diverse portfolio of assets that have the potential to perform well across a wide range of economic environments, including the inflationary environments that have tripped up the standard 60/40 portfolio in the past. We discuss the benefits of an all weather portfolio, the process of constructing a portfolio to stand up to a wide range of potential environments and the role of behavior in building an all weather strategy.

We hope you enjoy the discussion.

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The Changing Nature of Momentum Investing Apr 11, 2021

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Investors tend to associate momentum with growth stocks. If you try to name a typical momentum stock off the top of your head, you will probably think of names like Google or Facebook or Amazon. And that is especially true when we have gone through a growth dominated period like we have in the past decade.

But the reality is that momentum doesn't care about growth. It doesn't care about value either. It also doesn't care about quality. All it cares about is that a stock's price has gone up.

In this episode, we look at why momentum is a chameleon, and why that fact can make it challenging to follow for many investors.

We hope you enjoy the discussion.

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The Strengths and Weaknesses of the Major Value Metrics Apr 05, 2021

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Many investors think all value strategies are fairly similar to each other. And as a result they expect the value funds they invest in will all perform similarly over time. But the reality is that the behind the scenes details that go into building a value strategy can play a major role in how it performs and lead to major deviations in performance among value funds. In this episode, we take a look at one way that value strategies can differ - the metric they use to define value. We look at the major value metrics and the pros and cons of each of them. We also look at the construction of value composites and why their benefit might come from a different source than the one you think.

We hope you enjoy the discussion.

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