Excess Returns

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Rob Arnott on Inflation, Bubbles and the Future of Value Investing Jun 24, 2021

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Although the word unprecedented tends to be overused, we are seeing many things in the market currently that many of us haven't seen before. Fiscal stimulus has increased to levels that truly are unprecedented, inflation may become an issue for the first time in a long time, and many investors are arguing the fundamentals don't matter anymore

This week, we are fortunate to be joined by Research Affiliates founder Rob Arnott to help us work through all of it. We discuss the implications of government stimulus, how to identify bubbles in advance and the future of value investing, among many other topics.

We hope you enjoy the discussion.

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Some Quantitative Alternatives to the 60-40 Portfolio Jun 20, 2021

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In a world where inflation is not a threat, a standard 60-40 portfolio does an excellent job of providing growth, while also limiting downside when stocks get choppy. You don’t need anything more than the last 40 years, when the 60-40 portfolio had its best stretch ever, to illustrate that. The 60/40 has produced a 9.2% annualized return going back to 1988 – that is an impressive return for a portfolio that buys the overall market and aggregate bond index, rebalances once a year and calls it a day.

But with inflation potentially on the horizon, some argue that the 60-40 may not be enough anymore. In this episode, we look at some quantitative strategies that can offer alternatives to the 60-40 portfolio and discuss their pros and cons.

We hope you enjoy the discussion.

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A Deep Dive into Factor Investing and the Future Potential of China with Jason Hsu Jun 13, 2021

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We have had many experts in factor investing on the podcast. We have even had some who have published research in academic journals. But we haven't had anyone who has produced the volume of research that our guest this week has. Jason Hsu is the co-founder of Research Affiliates and founder of Rayliant. He is also an associate editor of the Journal of Investment Management and serves on the editorial board of the Financial Analysts Journal.

We discuss the current state of factor investing and get his take on all the major investing factors. We also discuss why he sees significant future potential in the Chinese market and the innovative approach he is taking to apply factor investing there.

We hope you enjoy the discussion.

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Rayliant Global Advisors

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Finding Quality Value Stocks With Joseph Piotroski's F Score Methodology Jun 06, 2021

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Research shows that value stocks can generate an excess return because the market tends to overestimate their problems, and value investors benefit when it realizes that. But despite that being true on average, many value stocks actually have even bigger problems than the market has priced in. This week, we look at one of the quantitative strategies we follow that attempts to separate the winners from the losers within the value investing space.

We discuss Joseph Piotroski's paper "Value Investing: The Use of Historical Financial Statement Information to Separate Winners from Losers". In the paper, Piotroski developed a series of nine fundamental tests (which he called the F Score) to identify value stocks that are more likely to generate an excess return going forward. He found that stocks with high F Scores showed significant improvements in performance relative to stocks with low F Scores. We examine the nine criteria used in this strategy in detail and talk about how it can be implemented in an investment strategy.

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Robert Hagstrom on Warren Buffett, Bill Miller and Finding High Quality Companies Jun 03, 2021

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There have been so many books written about Warren Buffett that it can be hard to keep track of them. But before all of that could happen, someone had to be the first. This week we are joined by Robert Hagstrom, whose book The Warren Buffett Way was the first book that took a detailed look at Buffett's investment strategy. And subsequent to that, he has also published The Warren Buffett Portfolio and Warren Buffett: Inside the Ultimate Money Mind, which looked at how Buffett constructs portfolios and the mental aspects on his investment process. Robert is also a Senior Portfolio Manager at EquityCompass and has a long record of taking the principles of Buffett and applying them in the real world.

In the interview, we look at the details of the investment process that has made Buffett successful and what Robert has learned managing money using Buffett's principles over his career. We also look at Robert's lessons from working with Bill Miller and how Miller has helped redefine the way investors define value investing.

We hope you enjoy the discussion.

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Could ARK Pose a Systemic Risk to the Market? A Look at How ETFs Work Can Help Us Find Out May 30, 2021

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The growth of ARK investments has been one of the biggest stories of the past decade in the ETF space. its flagship fund, the ARK Innovation ETF has seen its asset explode over the past year or so. In January of 2020 the fund had about $1.8B in assets and at the peak earlier this year the fund was at $27B.

But many in the investing community have worried that the firm's rapid growth and concentrated approach to investing could have a significant downside if investor sentiment turns against the stocks it owns and investors begin redeeming their shares in the fund. Some worry this could result in a cascading effect that could have major implications not only for ARK shareholders, but also for the market as a whole.

In this episode we take a behind the scenes look at the ETF structure and how the way ETFs work could both contribute to and mitigate the possibility of this type of event.

We hope you enjoy the discussion.

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Inside the First Hedge Fund to ETF Conversion and Finding Long-Term Compounders with Robert Cantwell May 27, 2021

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With the rapid growth in ETFs, it seems like almost every product idea possible has been tried. So it is rare to find something that is unique and hasn't been done before. This week, we talk to someone who has done not one, but two things that were never done before in the ETF space.

We speak with Robert Cantwell, the founder and CEO of Upholdings. Robert was not only the first person to convert a hedge fund into an ETF, but he also was the first to get approval to hold private companies within the ETF structure. In this interview, we take an in depth look at both of these and also discuss Robert's approach to finding stocks with the potential to compound capital over long periods of time.

We hope you enjoy the discussion.

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Upholdings Investments

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Retirement Researcher - by Wade Pfau, Ph.D. CFA & McLean Asset Management

What Valuation Can Tell You About the Market – And What it Can’t May 24, 2021

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There is no shortage of discussion in the media about the valuation of the market. And with the big market run we have had recently, valuations have once again become stretched. But what does market valuation tell us about the future returns of the market? And is there anything investors can do to adjust their portfolios based on market valuations? In this episode, we take an in depth look at the major ways to value the market, how they are calculated, and the different ways investors can use them. We also look at where the market currently stands from a valuation perspective and look at areas of relative value within it. We hope you enjoy the discussion. SEE LATEST EPISODES https://www.validea.com/excess-returns-podcast FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA https://www.validea.com FOLLOW OUR BLOG https://blog.validea.com FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL https://www.valideacapital.com FOLLOW JACK Twitter: https://twitter.com/practicalquant LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-forehand-8015094 FOLLOW JUSTIN Twitter: https://twitter.com/jjcarbonneau LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jcarbonneau

A Safety First Approach to Retirement Planning and the Problems with the 4% Rule with Wade Pfau May 20, 2021

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The 4% rule has become one of the cornerstones of retirement planning. And in many ways that makes sense because investors who have spent 4% of their portfolio annually have historically had a very high chance of making their money last. But with expected returns on both stocks and bonds at historical lows, the 4% rule may not work as well in the future as it has in the past.

This week, we explore this concept and look at a different approach to retirement planning with Dr. Wade Pfau, who is a Professor of Retirement Income at the American College and a principal at McLean Asset Management.

We cover a variety of topics including the safety first approach to retirement, the impact of expected returns on retirement planning and the role that home equity should play in a retirement plan.

We hope you enjoy the discussion.

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Wade Pfau (@WadePfau) / Twitter

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