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    Business

    Excess Returns

    Excess Returns is dedicated to making you a better long-term investor and making complex investing topics understandable. Join Jack Forehand, Justin Carbonneau and Matt Zeigler as they sit down with some of the most interesting names in finance to discuss topics like macroeconomics, value investing, factor investing, and more. Subscribe to learn along with us.

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    Latest Episodes:
    Stock Investors Fear an AI Bubble. Bond Investors Fear Inflation. How Can You Diversify Without Selling Them? Nov 12, 2026
    Show notes

    Corey Hoffstein and Adam Butler explore why diversification is hard to stick with and how return stacking changes what investors can hold alongside stocks and bonds. When stocks keep climbing, a strategy that trails them for years can feel like a mistake. When inflation pushes stocks and bonds down together, the reason for owning something different gets easier to see.


    Drawing on their Return Stacked symposium, the two join Matt Zeigler to discuss which risks are worth adding to a portfolio. Corey explains why even a strategy with little connection to the stock market can lose money on the day stocks fall. Adam revisits 2008, when some hedge funds suspended withdrawals just as investors needed cash to rebalance.


    They use managed futures to show how return stacking works. An investor can keep the stock and bond exposure of a 60/40 portfolio and use futures to add another strategy. That introduces leverage and makes two questions especially important. What will the portfolio need to hold as collateral, and can the investor stay with the strategy through a long drawdown?


    Topics covered:

    - What Corey Hoffstein took from Cliff Asness’s early experience running AQR

    - Why an inflation shock can hurt stocks and bonds at the same time

    - How Adam Butler adds managed futures while keeping a portfolio’s stock and bond exposure

    - Why the same leverage can produce very different outcomes depending on the strategy added

    - The difference between low correlation and protection during a stock market crash

    - What went wrong when institutions paired liquid futures with illiquid hedge funds in 2008

    - How holding both exposures in one fund changes collateral management and rebalancing

    - Why managed futures can fit alongside stocks, bonds or gold

    - How long a diversifier can disappoint before an investor gives up on it


    Return Stacked research

    https://www.returnstacked.com/


    Return Stacked ETFs

    https://www.returnstackedetfs.com/


    Seven Thoughts on Running Big Money for the Long-Term | Cliff Asness

    https://www.integrityia.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/Seven-Thoughts-on-Running-Big-Money-For-the-Long-Term-2009.pdf


    Corey Hoffstein’s Flirting with Models podcast

    https://www.flirtingwithmodels.com/episodes


    Corey Hoffstein on X

    https://x.com/choffstein


    Adam Butler on X

    https://x.com/gestaltu


    Return Stacked Portfolio Solutions on LinkedIn

    https://www.linkedin.com/company/return-stacked-portfolio-solutions


    Chapters:

    00:00 Corey Hoffstein on Cliff Asness and investing for the long run

    07:15 Adam Butler on AQR’s early years

    12:58 When inflation hurts both sides of a 60/40 portfolio

    17:21 How return stacking preserves stock and bond exposure

    23:02 Choosing which risks to add with leverage

    29:15 Why investors give up on diversifiers during drawdowns

    33:27 Portable alpha and the liquidity failures of 2008

    38:13 How a single fund manages collateral across both exposures

    43:26 What decades of managed futures returns can tell us

    50:37 Adam Butler on market timing and the case for spreading risk


    Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:

    https://excessreturns.co


    No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.



    Tech Is the Cheapest Since 2022. Walmart Is 46 Times Earnings. Where Is the Bubble? Nov 11, 2026
    Show notes

    Chris Mayer and Robert Hagstrom explain how they decide whether a falling stock price has exposed a mistake or given them a chance to buy a business they already know well.

    Subscribe to the 100 Year Thinkers of Spotify⁠⁠⁠

    ⁠⁠⁠Subscribe to the 100 Year Thinkers of Apple

    On 100 Year Thinkers, Matt Zeigler and Bogumil Baranowski ask both investors to put that judgment to work during a Nasdaq selloff. Robert starts with an unlikely pair: Nvidia and Walmart. What assumptions about growth and returns on capital would justify paying a higher earnings multiple for the retailer? Chris starts with free cash flow per share. He explains what he wants to know about a business before its stock drops 30% and he has to decide whether to buy more, hold on or sell.


    They give their winners the same scrutiny. Chris admits that a run of strong quarters can tempt him to spend all his research time on the companies that are struggling. Robert borrows a habit from Sherlock Holmes: look for the evidence that could overturn your favorite explanation. The conversation closes with a question for AI executives trying to win over a town that would host a data center. What does the community get in return for the power and water the facility will use?


    Topics covered:

    - Robert Hagstrom on why volatility rises when different investors start making the same trade

    - What the valuations of Nvidia and Walmart imply about their future earnings

    - Chris Mayer on free cash flow per share and Ben Graham’s voting machine and weighing machine

    - What readers of The Warren Buffett Way and 100 Baggers sometimes miss about their authors

    - How Robert Hagstrom uses detective work to test an investment thesis

    - Why Chris Mayer revisits companies that keep delivering strong results

    - What a concentrated portfolio asks of an investor and where indexing fits

    - How a watchlist helps both investors put a sharp price decline in context

    - When share buybacks make sense and what AI companies need to explain to local residents


    Robert Hagstrom’s research at EquityCompass

    https://www.equitycompass.com/author/robert


    Chris Mayer’s books at Woodlock House Family Capital

    https://www.woodlockhousefamilycapital.com/portfolio


    Chris Mayer on X

    https://x.com/chriswmayer


    Chapters:

    00:00 What a Nasdaq selloff tells long-term investors

    12:23 Ben Graham’s weighing machine and free cash flow per share

    17:58 Who sets the example for patient investors today?

    22:07 What readers miss about Robert Hagstrom and Chris Mayer

    26:07 Sherlock Holmes and the evidence against an investment thesis

    32:52 Studying winners as skeptically as mistakes

    39:05 The case for picking businesses in an indexed market

    44:36 Building a shopping list before prices fall

    49:12 When a falling price earns a closer look

    53:37 What shareholders need to hear from CEOs

    1:02:07 Why data centers are a hard sell for their neighbors


    Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:

    https://excessreturns.co


    No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.



    This $1.5 Trillion Manager Expects More Fed Hikes. So Why Is He Still Bullish? Nov 10, 2026
    Show notes

    Mike Hunstad, president of Northern Trust Asset Management, estimates that AI accounts for more than half the risk in the S&P 500. For an investor who sees real promise in AI, that poses a practical question. How much of the portfolio should depend on being right about it?


    Hunstad joins Jack Forehand and Justin Carbonneau to explain where he expects the payoff from AI to show up first. A company that uses AI to do the same work at a lower cost could see its margins rise well before the gains show up in GDP. He also explains how the stock market can move the economy in the other direction. If wealthy households have been spending some of their stock gains, a 20% equity decline could change what they buy.


    The conversation turns to what investors actually own. Hunstad uses the changing makeup of the Russell 1000 Value Index to show how a value fund can carry more technology exposure than its name suggests. He also shares the question he would ask an active manager after hearing their best stock picks. Which stocks did you underweight to pay for those bets, and do you have just as much conviction in those decisions?


    Topics covered:

    - What Treasury yields tell Mike Hunstad about inflation and the Fed’s choices

    - Why profit margins are his first test of whether AI spending is paying off

    - How the spending habits of wealthy households can turn a stock market decline into an economic slowdown

    - Where quality, value and low-volatility stocks fit in a portfolio with a large AI exposure

    - How much stock actually becomes available to investors when a large private company goes public

    - Why price-to-book can miss value in businesses built on intangible assets

    - How tracking a company’s suppliers, customers and peers changes the way investors measure momentum

    - When a factor looks cheap and why timing a shift into it is difficult

    - How the stocks a manager leaves out can overwhelm the gains from the ones they pick

    Chapters:

    00:00 What stock prices and economic headlines are saying

    06:45 The Fed, interest rates and the 10-year Treasury yield

    11:11 AI productivity and the case for a positive supply shock

    18:31 How a stock market decline could reach consumer spending

    22:51 AI capital spending and the lessons of the dot-com era

    28:54 Who captures the gains from AI, and how to measure them

    34:18 Mega-IPOs and how much stock comes to market

    38:36 What private markets add to a public equity portfolio

    44:11 Measuring value and momentum through investor behavior

    49:10 Can investors time their factor exposures?

    57:16 The portfolio risk in stocks you leave out


    Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:

    https://excessreturns.co


    No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.



    Peter Boockvar on AI, the Wealth Effect and the Two-Speed Economy Nov 09, 2026
    Show notes

    Peter Boockvar of OnePoint BFG Wealth Partners explains how AI demand can keep growing while the companies building data centers struggle to earn a return. CoreWeave has committed to years of lease payments. What happens if the price it can charge customers for computing power falls before those leases run out?


    The author of The Boock Report joins Matt Zeigler to trace who bears that risk. A lender, a chipmaker and an electrician building a data center all depend on the same project, but a slowdown reaches each of them differently. Boockvar draws on the history of the memory chip business to explain why a stock can look cheapest just as its earnings are peaking.


    They also look at the economy beyond AI. Boockvar compares what concert venues and hotel operators are hearing from customers, explains why reopening the Strait of Hormuz would still leave oil inventories to rebuild, and shares where he sees value in overseas stocks, healthcare and consumer staples.


    Topics covered:

    - How much hiring a data center supports during construction and after it opens

    - Why new memory chip supply matters to Micron shareholders even if demand keeps rising

    - How CoreWeave’s lease commitments and borrowing costs compare with IREN’s approach

    - Who could keep an existing data center running in a restructuring, and who loses orders if the next one never gets built

    - Why Peter Boockvar sees the Fed making smaller policy adjustments and watches the cost of financing AI projects

    - What sold-out concerts, travel bookings and hiring by industry reveal about the consumer

    - How depleted oil inventories could sustain demand for crude after shipping resumes

    - Where Peter Boockvar finds overlooked businesses outside the U.S. and in healthcare and consumer staples

    - What gold prices mean for miners’ margins and why refinancing matters for private credit


    Chapters:

    00:00 How much of the economy depends on the AI buildout?

    06:25 The workers who build data centers and the jobs that last

    11:14 Micron and the trap of buying peak earnings

    18:23 Who bears the losses if an AI infrastructure company defaults?

    23:19 How AI financing costs enter the Fed’s rate debate

    29:05 What concerts, hotels and hiring tell us about the consumer

    37:03 Oil supply and the long job of rebuilding inventories

    44:44 Looking overseas for overlooked stocks

    49:42 The case for consumer staples and healthcare

    56:52 Rush at Madison Square Garden and Peter Boockvar’s first concert


    Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:

    https://excessreturns.co


    No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.



    Last Call | Breaking Down the Post Election Decline Nov 08, 2026
    Show notes

    Brent Kochuba, Ben Hunt, Aahan Menon and Eric Pachman join Matt Zeigler and Jack Forehand on November’s Last Call to make sense of the post-election selloff and the pressures facing businesses and households.

    Follow Last Call on Spotify⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠

    ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Follow Last Call on Apple Podcasts⁠


    Brent Kochuba explains why the weakest AI cloud stocks caught his eye even while the Nasdaq was rallying. Ben Hunt argues the midterms changed what investors could take for granted about presidential power, with governors gaining a bigger say in where data centers get built.


    Aahan Menon traces how a decline in AI shares could reach the dinner table as households that grew wealthier on paper rethink their spending. Eric Pachman follows a different cost all the way to the grocery aisle. When diesel gets more expensive, a grocer has to decide how much of the freight bill to absorb and how much to pass on to shoppers.


    Topics covered:

    - Why Brent Kochuba watched the weakest AI cloud stocks for confirmation of the rally

    - How negative dealer gamma can amplify selling and why November options expiration matters

    - What Ben Hunt means by an election making the limits of presidential power “common knowledge”

    - Why governors, electricity bills and local jobs matter to the next data center permit

    - Why Aahan Menon sees little immediate change in federal spending after the midterms

    - How stock gains support consumer spending and data center investment feeds corporate profits

    - How Eric Pachman uses the Producer Price Index to see how many industries face unusual cost increases

    - Who borrowed oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve and what it will take to return those barrels


    Guest research and links:


    Brent Kochuba | SpotGamma

    https://spotgamma.com/

    SpotGamma on X

    https://x.com/spotgamma


    Ben Hunt | Perscient

    https://www.perscient.com/

    Epsilon Theory on X

    https://x.com/EpsilonTheory


    Aahan Menon | Prometheus Research

    https://www.prometheus-macro.com/

    Aahan Menon on X

    https://x.com/AahanPrometheus


    Eric Pachman | Data 4 The People

    https://www.data4thepeople.com/

    How the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) Works in 2026

    https://www.data4thepeople.com/p/spr-exchange


    Chapters:

    00:00 A post-election rally gives way to a Nasdaq selloff

    05:06 Brent Kochuba on unwinding election hedges

    12:05 The AI cloud stocks that missed the bounce

    16:38 Negative gamma and what could break the selling cycle

    26:28 Ben Hunt on what the election made common knowledge

    37:31 Aahan Menon on fiscal policy and the AI wealth effect

    43:03 What a slowdown in data center spending would mean for profits

    48:35 Eric Pachman on price pressure across industries

    57:31 Tanker traffic, freight costs and emergency oil loans

    1:05:10 Who gets a say when a data center comes to town?

    1:10:48 Political compromise and a Philadelphia sports story


    Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:

    https://excessreturns.co


    No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.



    Mike Green on Passive Flows, Market Concentration and What Could Change the Cycle Nov 06, 2026
    Show notes

    Mike Green explains how passive investing is reshaping stock prices, market concentration, and the way investors build portfolios. His argument: understanding which funds receive money—and how they allocate it—is increasingly essential to understanding the stocks those funds own.


    The founder of Tier1 Alpha Asset Management joins Matt Zeigler and Justin Carbonneau to connect retirement contributions, target-date funds, and index construction to the buying pressure behind the market's largest companies. He explains why he believes giant IPOs benefit from index mechanics, why liquidity does not keep pace with market capitalization, and how fund flows may help explain the behavior of value, size, and momentum.


    Green also walks through the investment framework he is building at Tier1: tracking thousands of funds, estimating their impact on individual securities, and making small portfolio tilts to account for those flows. The conversation explores what could interrupt retirement-driven buying, where fundamental analysis still matters, and how his planned strategies incorporate managed futures for diversification.


    Topics covered:

    - Why Mike Green thinks fund selection is increasingly shaping security prices

    - Why low-float index inclusions can create demand for giant IPOs

    - Why giant IPOs and smaller offerings can face very different sources of demand

    - Retirement contributions, target-date allocations, and the employment catalyst that could change flows

    - How passive flows may help explain value, size, and momentum-factor behavior

    - Why liquidity does not grow in proportion to market capitalization

    - Tier1's approach to tracking fund flows and making small portfolio tilts

    - Where discounted cash flow analysis fits in a market shaped by mechanical buying

    - Tracking error, managed futures, and Tier1's planned portfolio strategies

    - What employment trends could mean for the retirement contributions supporting passive flows


    Chapters:

    00:00 Mike Green on the election and giant IPOs

    05:44 IPO demand, passive buying, and weakening employment

    11:18 Valuation in a market shaped by flows

    16:46 Passive flows, value, and momentum

    21:27 Tracking fund flows and building portfolio tilts

    26:31 Inflation, energy bottlenecks, and pricing power

    30:50 AI investment returns and the fiber-optic analogy

    35:33 Fed policy, market rules, and Tier1's planned strategies

    43:18 The K-shaped economy, AI jobs, and gig work

    48:00 Political risks, optimism, and human agency

    53:32 Closing thoughts and where to follow Mike Green


    Tier1 Alpha Asset Management

    https://www.t1acapital.com/


    Mike Green on X

    https://x.com/profplum99


    Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:

    https://excessreturns.co


    No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.



    Spending Is Up 7%. Paychecks Are Up 3%. What Happens When Stocks Stop Paying the Difference? Nov 05, 2026
    Show notes

    Bob Elliott and Aahan Menon examine how stock-market wealth is helping consumers spend faster than their paychecks grow—and what that means for corporate profits if stocks stop rising.

    Elliott, co-founder of Unlimited, and Menon, founder of Prometheus Research, join Matt Zeigler to connect household spending, AI investment, and the earnings expectations built into markets. They discuss where their growth outlooks differ, why persistent inflation complicates the Fed's choices, and how bonds can look attractive against stocks while still looking unattractive against cash.

    The conversation also explores whether AI is producing the economy-wide gains needed to justify its investment boom, how forward spending commitments could reverse, and why both guests distinguish those risks from a repeat of the 2008 credit crisis.

    Topics covered:

    - What the midterm election could change for fiscal policy and data-center construction

    - Oil and AI as the competing forces behind inflation and growth expectations

    - Bob Elliott's distinction between peak growth and peak pricing of growth

    - How household wealth and drawing down savings support consumer spending

    - Aahan Menon on wages, workforce participation, immigration, and demographics

    - Why both guests think central banks are reluctant to deliver tighter policy

    - Bonds versus stocks, bonds versus cash, and Aahan Menon's inflation-nowcast rule

    - Bob Elliott's test for AI: accelerating productivity and revenue beyond the technology sector

    - How business investment and household spending feed corporate profits

    - Why AI commitments could weaken spending and earnings without a systemic credit crisis

    Chapters:

    00:00 Bob Elliott and Aahan Menon on the election

    04:25 Oil, AI, and the market's growth expectations

    09:25 Peak growth pricing and the consumer spending gap

    15:45 Household wealth, wages, and the labor market

    20:08 The Fed's response to persistent inflation

    24:12 Bonds versus stocks and bonds versus cash

    30:28 Inflation nowcasts and the test for AI productivity

    37:05 AI revenue expectations and the sources of profits

    43:38 Credit risks and AI's forward spending commitments

    50:38 Where Bob Elliott and Aahan Menon disagree


    Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:

    https://excessreturns.co


    No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.



    The Liquidity Cycle Has Turned | Michael Howell on What It Means for Investors Nov 04, 2026
    Show notes

    Michael Howell of CrossBorder Capital explains why slowing global liquidity could challenge stocks even as AI earnings remain strong. His concern is a growing competition for funding: money is flowing into real-world investment just as a huge wave of existing debt needs refinancing.


    With Jack Forehand and Justin Carbonneau, Howell walks through his liquidity cycle, the role of collateral and repo markets, and why he believes government bonds deserve another look. He also discusses the difference between declining liquidity growth and an outright contraction, the risks of financing the AI buildout, and how China's debt problems could shape the longer-term outlook for gold.


    Topics covered:

    - How Michael Howell measures global liquidity as the financial system's capacity to provide funding

    - Why a strong real economy can compete with financial markets for money

    - The four phases of the liquidity cycle and the shift from speculation toward turbulence

    - Why bank reserves, Treasury issuance, and collateral volatility matter beyond the Fed's policy rate

    - How AI earnings have given technology stocks an unusual second wind late in the cycle

    - The debt maturity wall and why Michael Howell watches debt relative to liquidity

    - How refinancing stress can spread through interconnected balance sheets

    - The case for government bonds as liquidity tightens and economic growth slows

    - Why Michael Howell distinguishes US Treasury yields from Europe's fiscal pressures

    - China's debt burden, potential monetary expansion, and the implications for gold and Bitcoin


    Chapters:

    00:00 Michael Howell on slowing global liquidity

    04:29 Why Main Street competes with Wall Street for funding

    09:12 The four phases of the liquidity cycle

    14:03 Repo markets, collateral, and the role of central banks

    18:15 Private credit creation and Fed-Treasury coordination

    22:25 Asset allocation through the liquidity cycle

    29:28 AI cyclicality and comparisons with past booms

    33:35 The debt maturity wall and refinancing demands

    41:23 Debt-to-liquidity stress and financial system fragility

    46:04 Refinancing risks and Europe's fiscal pressures

    50:19 Treasury yields, nominal growth, and China's economy

    55:43 The outlook for 2027, China's debt, and gold


    Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:

    https://excessreturns.co


    No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.



    Seven Stocks Are 41% of the S&P | John Davi on Building Portfolios Beyond the Mag 7 Bet Nov 03, 2026
    Show notes

    John Davi of Astoria Investment Management explains how he builds diversified portfolios in a tech dominated market. With Jack Forehand and Justin Carbonneau, Davi walks through an alternative approach. He also explains why he sees echoes of the 1970s in today's inflation, what he watches in credit markets for signs of stress in the AI buildout, and where real assets fit alongside stocks and bonds.


    Topics covered:

    - Why John Davi trimmed Astoria's equity overweight without trying to call a market top

    - What the 10-year Treasury yield looks like relative to nominal economic growth

    - How SPY and QQQ overlap, and what a conventional equal-weight index changes besides stock weights

    - The question facing the Magnificent Seven: can earnings grow fast enough to justify AI spending?

    - Where John Davi agrees with the passive investing feedback-loop argument and where it falls short

    - What goes in the 20% when a 60/40 portfolio becomes 50% stocks, 30% bonds, and 20% diversifiers

    - Why John Davi favors AI adopters and watches credit default swaps on the companies funding the buildout

    - How Astoria screens for quality at a reasonable price using profitability, dividends, and valuation

    - What trading floors taught John Davi about hedging before a drawdown


    Chapters:

    00:00 John Davi on earnings, rates, and trimming equity risk

    05:05 Is the 10-year Treasury yield high relative to growth?

    10:16 Seven stocks and the changing risk inside the S&P 500

    14:33 Diversifying around SPY and QQQ

    20:02 Equal stock weights without a big tech underweight

    24:46 Passive flows, prices, and buying the dip

    30:04 Higher rates, the 60/40 portfolio, and real assets

    37:08 From AI builders to companies using AI

    42:40 Credit spreads and cracks in the AI trade

    47:34 Adding a quality screen to growth stocks

    55:12 Why John Davi hedges and resists chasing past winners


    Research discussed:

    Rates Hit Multi-Decade Highs. Will Growth and Earnings Keep the Rally Going?

    https://www.astoriaim.com/single-post/rates-hit-multi-decade-highs-will-growth-and-earnings-keep-the-rally-going


    Astoria Investment Management

    https://www.astoriaim.com/


    Astoria on X

    https://x.com/AstoriaAdvisors


    Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:

    https://excessreturns.co


    No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.



    Chip Stocks Look Cheap. AI Spending Is Surging. So Why Is Cameron Dawson Watching for Peak Earnings? Nov 02, 2026
    Show notes

    Cameron Dawson and Dave Nadig join Matt Zeigler to examine what could break the market's resilience, from AI earnings expectations to the wealth effect supporting consumer spending. A healthy economy and continued data center investment may not be enough to keep stock prices rising if profit margins and investor expectations reset.


    In this episode of Click Beta, Matt, Cameron and Dave debate what the two-year Treasury yield is signaling, how the AI buildout is changing demand for capital, and why semiconductor stocks can look cheap just as earnings approach a peak. They also discuss the possibility of a prolonged sideways market, practical approaches to rebalancing, and separating near-term cash needs from long-term investments. Then the surprise topics take a Halloween turn, with homemade costumes, strange family heirlooms, horror movies, and a very specific Creed halftime-show tribute.


    Topics covered:

    - Cameron Dawson's question: what would have to break for the Fed to deliver fewer hikes than markets expect?

    - The wealth effect, consumer spending, and the divide between the top and bottom of the K-shaped economy

    - Dave Nadig's concerns about AI financing, IPO supply, and who will absorb new stock issuance

    - Why a low semiconductor P/E ratio can reflect concerns about peak earnings

    - Micron, margin normalization, and the risk of extrapolating unusually strong profitability

    - How a resilient economy could coexist with falling technology stocks or a sideways index

    - Market rotation, defensive leadership, and the challenge of countertrend rallies

    - Rebalancing rules, timing luck, and planning for cash needs over the next 12 months

    - Distinguishing long-term legacy assets from money needed soon

    - Halloween costumes, family traditions, Rocky Horror, and cult-film recommendations

    Chapters:

    00:00 Welcome to Click Beta: Limp Bizkit meets the Fed

    05:30 What would have to break for the Fed to change course?

    11:18 The K-shaped consumer and AI's demand for capital

    16:44 More expensive capital and semiconductor earnings risk

    22:30 Can chip margins stay this high?

    26:56 Market rotation and the risk of going sideways

    32:51 Diversification, rebalancing, and near-term cash needs

    37:40 Halloween costumes and family stories

    42:02 Holiday heirlooms and a Creed costume deep cut

    46:32 Halloween movies, music, and where to find the panel


    Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:

    https://excessreturns.co


    No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.



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