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Excess Returns

Excess Returns is dedicated to making you a better long-term investor and making complex investing topics understandable. Join Jack Forehand, Justin Carbonneau and Matt Zeigler as they sit down with some of the most interesting names in finance to discuss topics like macroeconomics, value investing, factor investing, and more. Subscribe to learn along with us.

Latest Episodes:

What Investors Can Learn from a Year-Long Trading Experiment | Brent Donnelly Sep 26, 2024

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In this episode, Matt sits down with Brent Donnelly, author of "50 Trades in 50 Weeks: One Year of Good Ideas, Dumb Mistakes, and Timeless Trading Lessons". Brent spent close to a year conducting a unique experiment where he created and executed one unique trade every week across a wide variety of markets and asset classes. We discuss what he learned from the experience. We also delve into the concept of edge in investing and the challenges of maintaining one in evolving markets, the importance of narrative, the challenges of transitioning from backtesting to live trading, the crucial role of adaptation in markets and a lot more.

What Regular Investors Need to Know About Options Flows | Brent Kochuba Sep 18, 2024

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In this episode, we dive deep into the world of options and their impact on market dynamics. We start with an "Options Dealer Flows 101" primer, explaining key concepts like delta hedging, gamma, charm, and vanna to help viewers understand how options flows can drive stock prices. We then analyze the current market situation heading into the September 2024 options expiration, one of the biggest of the year. We explore the outsized influence of Nvidia options activity, discuss potential outcomes from the upcoming FOMC meeting, and examine how bond-equity correlations are shifting. We break down why understanding options flows is crucial even for long-term investors who don't trade options themselves. Using real-world examples, we illustrate how options positioning can create market volatility and reversals around key dates. Whether you're an options trader or just want to better understand what's moving markets, this episode provides valuable insights into the hidden forces shaping stock prices. Join us as we unpack the complex world of options and their far-reaching effects on the broader market. SPOTGAMMA'S NEW PRODUCT - TRACE THE MARKET https://spotgamma.com/trace-the-market-excess-returns/?aff=Excess

The Case for a Roaring 2020s | Ed Yardeni Sep 12, 2024

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In this episode of Excess Returns, we sat down with Ed Yardeni, president of Yardeni Research and YardeniQuickTakes.com. Ed is one of the most accurate and respected Wall Street strategists, and we were excited to discuss his views on the economy, markets, and forecasting.

We covered a wide range of topics, including: Ed's outlook for inflation and the economy Why he believes we could be entering a "Roaring 20s" period for the stock market His thoughts on why we might see fewer Fed rate cuts than many expect The characteristics that make a good economic forecaster The potential impact of AI on the economy His views on the upcoming election and its market implications The long-term underperformance of value vs growth stocks Ed's approach to sector allocation and market breadth

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The Harsh Truth About Investing Edge with Adam Butler Sep 05, 2024

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In this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with our good friend Adam Butler, co-founder and Chief Investment Officer of ReSolve Asset Management. We cover a lot of ground, including: The challenge of distinguishing investment edge from noise over typical investing lifetimes The concept of return stacking and how it allows investors to increase portfolio diversification The process of determining sources of return to stack on top of stock and bond portfolios The impact of passive investing flows on market dynamics and fundamentals Perspectives on whether AI will significantly boost economic productivity and GDP growth As always, Adam offers thoughtful and sometimes contrarian views on these complex subjects, drawing on his extensive experience in quantitative investing and portfolio management.

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Value Investing in a Changing World with Aswath Damodaran Aug 29, 2024

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In this episode of Excess Returns, we sat down with NYU professor Aswath Damodaran to discuss his new book on the corporate life cycle and get his insights on a wide range of investing topics. We cover: - How companies age and why they struggle to act their age - The importance of storytelling in valuation - Aswath's thoughts on factor investing and its limitations - The rise of passive investing and its impact on markets - Market concentration and the dominance of big tech companies - How Aswath approaches his own investing decisions - The potential impact of AI on investing and valuation - Why Aswath has never attended the Berkshire Hathaway annual meeting Aswath shares his unique perspectives on these topics, blending academic rigor with practical insights. He also offers his advice for the average investor, emphasizing the importance of focusing on preserving and growing wealth rather than chasing outsized returns. Whether you're a seasoned investor or just getting started, this wide-ranging conversation offers valuable food for thought on navigating today's complex markets.

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Challenging "Stocks for the Long Run" with Jason Buck Aug 22, 2024

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In this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with Jason Buck of Mutiny Funds to examine the idea of stocks for the long run and some potential challenges to it. We discuss: - Why the impressive historical returns of the US stock market may be an outlier - The importance of looking at real returns vs nominal returns - How to build a diversified portfolio to handle different economic scenarios - The concept of "fractal diversification" in portfolio construction - Rethinking sustainable withdrawal rates in retirement - The pros and cons of using leverage in a diversified portfolio - Unconventional investing beliefs that go against the mainstream SEE LATEST EPISODES ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://excessreturnspod.com

The Mechanics of Deleveragings - And Where the Current One Fits In | Andy Constan Aug 15, 2024

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In this episode of Excess Returns, we welcome back Andy Constan, founder of DampedSpring . We cover a wide range of topics, including recent market volatility, the broader economic outlook, and Andy's perspectives on inflation and monetary policy. Andy shares his framework for analyzing deleveraging events, emphasizes the importance of thinking in probabilities for market outcomes, and discusses potential long-term impacts of factors like AI and deglobalization on the economy. We explore his views on different economic scenarios and the Federal Reserve's actions. As always, Andy provides nuanced insights into market analysis and investment decisions, making for a thought-provoking conversation.

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Challenging Conventional Investing Beliefs with Meb Faber Aug 08, 2024

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In this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with Meb Faber, founder of Cambria Investment Management, to discuss his unconventional views on investing that often go against mainstream opinions. We explore a wide range of topics, including the Federal Reserve's performance, dividend investing strategies, international diversification for U.S. investors, trend following, and the relationship between interest rates and stock market valuations. Throughout our conversation, Meb challenges common investing beliefs and provided evidence-based perspectives on various aspects of the market. We all can benefit from challenging our own strongly held investing beliefs and we hope this episode will help you do that as it did for us.

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A Safety First Retirement | The 4% Rule and Managing Sequence of Returns Risk with Wade Pfau Aug 01, 2024

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In this episode of Excess Returns, our good friend Matt Ziegler interviews retirement planning expert Wade Pfau. They discuss key concepts in retirement income planning, including the 4% rule, variable withdrawal strategies, and Pfau's "safety first" approach. They discuss Wade's work on retirement income styles and the RISA (Retirement Income Style Awareness) framework he developed to help retirees and advisors determine appropriate strategies. They also explore topics like the benefits of delaying Social Security, the role of annuities in retirement planning, and managing sequence of returns risk. Wade also shares insights on tax-efficient withdrawals, evolving retirement challenges, and balancing frugality with enjoying life in the present.

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Value Investing, the Mag 7 and Making Sense of a Changing Market with Tobias Carlisle Jul 25, 2024

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In this episode of Excess Returns, we take a deep dive into value investing with our good friend Tobias Carlisle. We discuss the recent outperformance of small cap and value stocks, tackle the challenges of long periods of underperformance for value strategies, and examine how Tobias constructs his portfolios. We delve into his process for selecting stocks, including his focus on companies trading at discounts using the Acquirer's multiple and his approach to portfolio diversification. Our conversation also touches on the dominance of large tech companies and whether their outsized returns can continue. Throughout our discussion, Tobias emphasizes the importance of patience, skepticism about growth projections, and prioritizing survival over maximizing returns when investing.

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