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Excess Returns

Excess Returns is dedicated to making you a better long-term investor and making complex investing topics understandable. Join Jack Forehand, Justin Carbonneau and Matt Zeigler as they sit down with some of the most interesting names in finance to discuss topics like macroeconomics, value investing, factor investing, and more. Subscribe to learn along with us.

Latest Episodes:

What the Rise of Passive Investing Means for Your Portfolio | Special Guest: Dave Nadig Dec 02, 2024

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In this episode, Jack Forehand and Matt Zeigler dive deep into one of the most debated topics in modern finance with special guest Dave Nadig. This episode explores how passive investing has transformed markets, featuring insights from leading experts including Mike Green, Aswath Damodaran, Rick Ferri, Rob Arnott, and Cliff Asness. Key discussions: Why active investing's poor performance led to passive's rise How index fund flows might affect market dynamics The difference between stocks in and out of major indices Whether passive investing could potentially destabilize markets What this means for individual investors Whether you're a market professional or retail investor, this conversation offers crucial insights into how passive investing is reshaping financial markets and what it means for your portfolio. Featured Guests' Clips: Aswath Damodaran on active management's track record Mike Green on passive investing mechanics Rick Ferri with the counterargument Rob Arnott on index inclusion effects Cem Karsan on why active may rise again Cliff Asness offering a balanced perspective

The Most Misunderstood Bull Market Ever | Jim Paulsen Nov 27, 2024

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In this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with veteran investment strategist Jim Paulsen to discuss the current market landscape and economic outlook. Paulsen, author of Paulson Perspectives on Substack, shares unique insights on why traditional recession indicators have failed, how Main Street sentiment impacts markets, and why he remains optimistic despite widespread pessimism. Key topics include: Why the Fed's recent approach differs from historical patterns The changing nature of market valuations The impact of technology on profit productivity Why consumer confidence remains surprisingly low The future of long-term bond yields Drawing from over 40 years of market experience, Paulsen offers a data-driven yet practical perspective on where markets may be heading and why many conventional indicators may need updating for today's economy.

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Bigger Extremes, Better Returns | Cliff Asness on the "Less Efficient Market Hypothesis" Nov 20, 2024

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In this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with AQR founder Cliff Asness for a fascinating discussion about market efficiency, behavioral finance, and the future of quantitative investing. In this wide-ranging conversation, we explore Cliff's recent paper "The Less Efficient Market Hypothesis" and discuss why markets might actually be becoming less efficient over time, despite advances in technology – a counterintuitive but compelling argument. We dig into how social media and constant connectivity might be making markets more prone to extremes, the real impact of passive investing, and why periods of market irrationality might last longer than ever before. Cliff shares his perspective on the current market concentration in the Magnificent Seven stocks and offers insights on high-volatility alternatives from his latest paper. The conversation also covers the role of intuition in factor investing, inflation's impact on markets, and ends with Cliff's essential advice for the average investor. Throughout the discussion, Cliff brings his characteristic mix of academic rigor and practical wisdom, peppered with his unique brand of humor. Whether you're a quant enthusiast, professional investor, or just interested in understanding today's markets better, this conversation offers valuable insights from one of the industry's most influential voices.

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Making Sense of Markets in a Post Election World | Grant Williams and Ben Hunt Nov 14, 2024

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In this episode of Excess Returns, Matt Zeigler is joined by Ben Hunt and Grant Williams for a candid discussion of the 2024 post-election landscape and its implications for markets. The guests explore how trust, or lack thereof, shapes both political and market narratives, examining the transformation of capital markets into what they describe as a "political utility" where "number go up" has become the prevailing faith. Key topics include: Analysis of shifting market dynamics and investment philosophies The challenges of maintaining long-term perspective in a speculation-driven environment How inflation and institutional trust impact market behavior The distinction between investment and speculation in modern markets Practical considerations for navigating uncertain economic conditions This wide-ranging conversation offers valuable insights for investors trying to understand the intersection of politics, markets, and human behavior in today's complex financial landscape.

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Making Money from Market Chaos | Inside the Volatility World with Kris Sidial Nov 07, 2024

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In this episode of Excess Returns, Jack Forehand and special guest host Brent Kochuba dive deep into the world of long volatility and tail risk strategies with Kris Sidial, founder of the Ambrus Group. Kris shares invaluable insights from his experience managing volatility-focused strategies and navigating major market events. 🔑 Key Topics Covered: How long volatility strategies work and their role in investment portfolios Behind-the-scenes look at managing vol strategies during market crashes The August 2023 volatility event and what really happened Evolution of the derivatives market and its impact on trading The truth about market liquidity and short volatility positioning How retail options trading has changed market dynamics Kris provides a fascinating glimpse into how vol traders operate during market stress events, explaining how these strategies aim to deliver explosive returns during market crashes while minimizing losses during normal conditions. He also discusses the psychological challenges of running these strategies and the importance of having both quantitative and discretionary elements in volatility trading. Whether you're an institutional investor, retail trader, or just interested in understanding market dynamics better, this episode offers valuable perspectives on an often misunderstood corner of the investment world.

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A Deep Dive into Micro-Cap Investing | Ian Cassel Oct 31, 2024

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In this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with Ian Cassel, founder of MicroCap Club and Intelligent Fanatics Capital Management. We explore the fascinating world of microcap investing, where Ian shares his expertise in finding and investing in ultra-small public companies. We dive deep into Ian's investment philosophy, discussing how he identifies promising microcap companies, the importance of finding exceptional management teams, and his approach to portfolio management. We cover: - What defines a microcap stock and the size of the microcap universe - The concept of "intelligent fanatics" and its importance in small company investing - Why profitability and management quality are crucial filters - How Ian approaches position sizing and portfolio concentration - The importance of setting proper capacity constraints in microcap investing - Why turnover can actually be beneficial in microcap portfolios - Red flags for individual investors to watch out for Whether you're an experienced investor or just getting started, this conversation offers valuable insights into an often overlooked corner of the market where significant opportunities can still be found.

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The Practical Implications of the Rise of Passive Investing | Mike Green Oct 24, 2024

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In this episode, we are joined by Simplify Asset Management's Mike Green. We build on our previous episodes with Mike where we discussed his research on the impact of passive investing on the market and focus on its practical implications and how it impacts how investors construct their portfolios. We discuss the types of equity strategies that would benefit the most from the rise of passive, whether a factor could be constructed based on Mike's research, different strategies that might hedge a potential market decline triggered by passive and a lot more.

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An Evidence-Based Look at the Struggles of Value Investing | Larry Swedroe Oct 17, 2024

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In this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with Larry Swedroe to tackle some of the most pressing issues in investing today. We dive deep into topics that are on many investors' minds, including: Is value investing still effective in today's market? How is the rise of passive investing impacting market efficiency? Should we be concerned about market concentration? Is international diversification still important? What role will artificial intelligence play in investing? Larry brings his decades of experience and research to bear, challenging common assumptions and offering nuanced perspectives that often go against conventional wisdom. We explore the importance of maintaining a long-term view, the dangers of recency bias, and why Larry believes hyper-diversification across multiple asset classes may be beneficial for investors. We also discuss factor investing, the increasing role of alternatives, and how individual investors can approach portfolio construction in our evolving market landscape.

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15 Ways to Lose Money in Markets | Ben Carlson Oct 10, 2024

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In this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with Ben Carlson, Director of Institutional Asset Management at Ritholtz Wealth and author of the popular investing blog "A Wealth of Common Sense." We discussed his insightful article "15 Ways to Lose Money in the Markets," which outlines major mistakes investors make and how to avoid them. We explore a variety of topics, including: - The dangers of market timing and why it's so difficult to get right - Why investors shouldn't blindly follow advice from billionaires or pundits - The importance of not overreacting to short-term market volatility - How to approach active vs. passive investing strategies - The pitfalls of trying to get rich overnight and the value of long-term investing - Why it's crucial to avoid selling during bear markets - The risks of being overly pessimistic about markets and the economy Ben provided valuable insights on each of these topics, emphasizing the importance of having a long-term perspective, avoiding big mistakes, and sticking to a well-thought-out investment plan. This conversation offers valuable lessons for investors at all levels, from beginners to seasoned professionals.

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Investing in a Flows Driven World | Cem Karsan Oct 03, 2024

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In this episode of Excess Returns, we welcome back Cem Karsan of Kai Volatility Advisors for an in-depth discussion on the current state of markets and the global economy. We explore: - How geopolitical events in the Middle East and Ukraine are impacting markets and risk - Cem's views on inflation, recent Fed actions, and market flows - The impact of options positioning and market structure on volatility - Cem's outlook for the remainder of 2023 and into 2024 - Historical patterns around elections and how they may apply today - Thoughts on the rise of passive investing and potential shifts ahead - Perspectives on AI as both a productivity driver and investment theme Cem shares his unique insights on how the current market backdrop compares to other periods of elevated populism and inflation, and what that could mean for returns and investor behavior going forward.

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