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Economic Take — Business
Economic Take

A weekly podcast dissecting the latest trends in the economy that businesses should know about, from trade dynamics to labor market fluctuations. All from JPMorgan Chase Commercial Banking’s Head Economist, Jim Glassman.

Copyright: © Copyright 2019 All rights reserved.

Latest Episodes:

A warming economic pot Jul 05, 2022

In the final episode of this podcast, Jim takes a look back at 50 years of economic transformation—and offers optimism about what the future holds for the economy and markets.

If you’re looking for more economic and market insights, subscribe to our weekly update or visit jpmorgan.com/cb. For your next podcast, consider the firm’s new “Making Sense” series.

The economic state of U.S. higher education Jun 28, 2022

Jim sits down with Kerry Jessani, Head of Healthcare, Higher Education and Nonprofit Banking for Commercial Banking, to explore the ways the current economic outlook affects colleges and universities, and even how technology has transformed the student experience.

Three cheers for fiscal activism Jun 21, 2022

A sluggish recovery from economic crises worsens outcomes for the government, disrupts people’s lives and erodes wealth. After a century of dealing with economic cycles, American leaders implicitly now understand the costs and benefits of policy activism.

CPI: The newest news that isn’t Jun 14, 2022

Though it’s generating buzz, the May CPI report reflects the same patterns we’ve seen for months: that our inflation issues are supply-side problems and not a result of too much demand.

Reconciling contradictory stories about inflation Jun 07, 2022

In the big picture, there are no signs the economy is overheated. But the evidence plain to see in certain sectors, likely a result of consumer shifts away from services and toward goods during the pandemic. Added together, the odds of a Fed-triggered recession are pretty slim.

Monetary conditions versus financial conditions May 31, 2022

Among a shifting market landscape, the interplay between monetary and financial conditions can be likened to that of conductors and musicians—one sets the tone while the other responds.

Keep sight of the fundamentals May 24, 2022

Stock market valuations have been high by historic norms, but is the standard way of valuing the stock market still applicable?

Nothing like the past May 17, 2022

Today’s Federal Reserve has a few tools at its disposal it didn’t have during the inflationary era of the 1970s: a game plan, time and flexibility.

Inflation and a more sober outlook on 2022 May 10, 2022

Despite the talk of inflation, bond investors still seem to agree with the Fed’s initial instinct that many of the current price pressures will prove to be transitory. Also: Why globalism is still kicking.

No easy fix to our inflation conundrum May 03, 2022

The Fed worked hard to prop up the economy during the pandemic. There’s no reason to assume its leaders are now willing to risk pushing the economy into a recession when long-term inflation expectations are still below 2%.

The consumer and globalization Apr 26, 2022

Many of us remember the price shocks of the 1970s, but there are not many parallels with that era in terms of the forces that currently drive inflation.

Find more market, economic and business insights at jpmorgan.com/CB.

The excess demand narrative doesn’t fit the facts Apr 19, 2022

There’s a widespread notion that the current spike in prices signals an overheated economy. But under close inspection, those details don’t add up.

Find more market, economic and business insights at jpmorgan.com/CB.

An ode to the Fed’s 2% inflation target Apr 12, 2022

The Fed’s activity now is a hallmark of its modern approach: Set investors’ expectations for steady, predictable long-term inflation — and avoid the temptation to hit the brakes.

Find more market, economic and business insights at jpmorgan.com/CB.

Job growth is approaching a demographic cliff Apr 05, 2022

Employment has grown by 887,000 monthly on average since April 2020 as the economy got back on its feet. Now that we’re back to pre-pandemic employment conditions, the pace of hiring will grind down very quickly.

Find more market, economic and business insights at jpmorgan.com/CB.

Don’t fear the Fed Mar 29, 2022

Will the Fed’s game plan pull the rug from under the recovery? The roller-coaster ride over the past two years seems less influenced by the Fed and more by non-monetary factors.

Find more market, economic and business insights at jpmorgan.com/CB.

A favorable forecast, no matter the chatter Mar 22, 2022

The Fed said last week it expects growth to settle down to a trend-like pace and that unemployment will stabilize. What explains all the concern out there where the Fed sees no issue?

Sticker shock: What will come of it? Mar 15, 2022

Will the recent spike in gas prices and other commodities set back the post-pandemic economic recovery? There’s good reason to think we’ll be able to ride this one out.

Seasonal adjustments confused by two years of pandemic Mar 08, 2022

The economic numbers we talk about are seasonally adjusted, smoothing out the natural ups and downs of a calendar year so we get a clearer picture. But since the pandemic, it’s getting tricker to tell what’s a standard seasonal swing or a COVID curveball.

Energy turmoil ahead: How will it affect the recovery? Mar 01, 2022

The current geopolitical crisis will slow growth by a couple percentage points. But the drag caused by rising energy prices will be heaviest for regions of the globe that depend on imported fuel.

Who’s on first: Wages, prices, productivity or margins? Feb 22, 2022

Concerns that rising labor costs could be inflationary are misplaced because wages move in concert with other factors—many of them decades in the making.

Think of the Fed as a Foghorn Feb 15, 2022

The Federal Reserve has clearly communicated its goals for months. So why hasn’t it changed course in the face of the latest inflation readings?

Moving the Goalposts On Employment Feb 08, 2022

A peculiar thing happened in January’s jobs report. The labor force grew by 1.4 million, but after an annual population adjustment, the labor force actually contracted. Why does BLS change the measurements, and how does that affect the way we look at trends?

Don’t Let the Fed’s Talk Give You Heartburn Feb 01, 2022

The upcoming rise in interest rates has the markets unsettled. But the Federal Reserve’s plans are colored by a bullish view of the economy’s growth, not a hawkish outlook wary of an economic downturn.

Why An Interest Shift Won’t Scare Housing Jan 25, 2022

With the Fed already starting to pull back from pandemic supports, interest rates are expected to climb in 2022. While that may dampen mortgages, enough other changes over the past few years should leave housing in a healthy place.

Inflation’s Most Useful Indicators Jan 18, 2022

When it comes to inflation, it takes two to tango—aggregate demand and aggregate supply. Comparing prices to the pre-pandemic world of 2019 tells a remarkably different story than a one-year lookback.

Business Leaders Feel Good About ’22 Jan 11, 2022

In our 2022 Business Leaders Outlook survey, we found that business leaders across the U.S. have a rosy view of the year ahead. While pandemic-driven challenges linger, they’re not really getting in the way of growth and profits.

A Round of Applause for 2021 Dec 21, 2021

It may not feel like it with the market trending down in the last month, but in 2021 we witnessed a remarkably fast economic recovery. And there’s good reason to be upbeat for 2022.

Why Car Sales Will Steer 2022’s Economic Growth Dec 14, 2021

The economy is expected to grow steadily in 2022, but there are a few reasons that shouldn’t worsen current pricing pressures.

Underneath the Surface of the Jobs Numbers Dec 07, 2021

The Fed’s ultimate goal of stable inflation requires aggregate demand to align with aggregate supply. That hinges on the supply of labor, and unemployment is the best measure of that alignment.

Looking for Blame in All the Wrong Places Nov 30, 2021

Even though we know the culprit behind inflation, we’re still susceptible to superstition. We tend to link inflation headlines with monetary and fiscal policy actions. Jim debunks a few popular misconceptions about recent Fed activity.

A Tailwind for the Travel Industry Nov 23, 2021

The air travel industry never shut down during the pandemic, but it certainly felt the effects. Airline trends offer us fast insight into business travel and tourism patterns. As COVID-19 cases dip and passenger counts rise, it looks like smoother skies are ahead.

Asset Prices and the Fed Nov 16, 2021

Though the Federal Reserve keeps an eye on asset prices, it won’t set targets. That’s because mandates on inflation and employment mean the Fed’s plate is plenty full. Plus, a look at historical norms and why they may not apply to modern asset valuations.

We want to hear from you! We’re looking to learn more about listeners of Economic Take to improve and evolve the podcast. jpmorgan.surveymonkey.com/r/economictake

Major Shifts in the Healthcare Sector Nov 09, 2021

Jim is joined by J.P. Morgan healthcare expert Lauren Ruane to discuss trends in the healthcare sector and what’s changed in the pandemic. Key themes include how technology and innovation are shaping the sector’s future. Lauren also covers patients as savvy consumers, remote care and behavioral health taking center stage, and why the sector’s labor shortage is likely to intensify.

Why Aren’t Consumers Seeing the Same Thing That Businesses Are Seeing? Nov 02, 2021

Though they’re both climbing, price increases on materials are outpacing hikes on retail shelves. That’s partially because labor costs matter more when it comes to consumer prices.

We want to hear from you! We’re looking to learn more about listeners of Economic Take to improve and evolve the podcast. jpmorgan.surveymonkey.com/r/economictake

The Fed’s New Inflation Mindset Oct 26, 2021

The Fed is focusing on the average rate of inflation over time, rather than responding to current volatility and price pressures. Why is this change a big deal? It can help lessen policy uncertainty, and it sets a more reasonable standard to judge the central bank’s intentions. The change may also bring an end to the decline in the nominal interest rate levels that has weakened central banks’ policy tools.

We want to hear from you! We’re looking to learn more about listeners of Economic Take to improve and evolve the podcast. jpmorgan.surveymonkey.com/r/economictake

The Odd Dip In Consumer Sentiment Oct 19, 2021

Consumer sentiment is in a rut since this summer—and that can help us forecast future trends in the U.S. With some added historical perspective, consumers right now have it pretty good.

We want to hear from you! We’re looking to learn more about listeners of Economic Take to improve and evolve the podcast. jpmorgan.surveymonkey.com/r/economictake

Foot’s Coming Off the Gas, But No Brakes Yet Oct 12, 2021

What we’re anticipating from the Fed for the next few years isn’t monetary tightening, but a gradual easing of monetary accommodation. And a few good reasons to downplay a slim September jobs report.

We want to hear from you! We’re looking to learn more about listeners of Economic Take to improve and evolve the podcast. jpmorgan.surveymonkey.com/r/economictake

Reading into the Latest on Jobs, Rates and Rents Oct 05, 2021

October’s jobs report and profit reports will tell us plenty about the momentum in the market. And a rise in mortgage rates from their pandemic lows could be a boost for landlords.

We want to hear from you! We’re looking to learn more about listeners of Economic Take to improve and evolve the podcast. It's just six short questions: jpmorgan.surveymonkey.com/r/economictake

The Fed’s Evolution, and Air Travel’s Indicators Sep 28, 2021

As the economy rebounds, the Fed’s not budging — a clear sign of the Fed’s rethinking since a decade ago. Also, a look at why air travel numbers are a signal for the broader economy.

Blue Skies for the Multifamily Sector Sep 21, 2021

This year’s surge in housing prices doesn’t have much in common with the crisis from a decade ago. Behind it is a positive change in household buying power driven by lower mortgage rates and higher incomes.

How Small Businesses Have Updated Their Playbook Sep 14, 2021

Small businesses saw both the challenges and opportunities of economic upheaval the last year. Chase for Business joined the Economic Take podcast to unpack how the economy and labor shortages are impacting small businesses—and how entrepreneurs are adapting.

Why the Gap Between GDP and Jobs Matters Sep 07, 2021

GDP is back to pre-pandemic levels, the economy is still short millions of jobs and businesses are struggling to fill job openings. The gap between national output and employment could lead to a few different scenarios, and each one looks different for growth and Fed policy in the years ahead.

What’s Driving the Current Earnings Bonanza Aug 31, 2021

The value of the U.S. stock market now is twice the size of the U.S. economy. What macroeconomic factors led to the market’s record highs, and what’s on the horizon?

A Lasting COVID Effect: Increased Labor Productivity Aug 24, 2021

Businesses finally took a long-needed leap toward automation. (It was a global pandemic that provided the shove.)

What the Fed Tunes Out from Inflation Measurements, and Why Aug 17, 2021

By focusing on the core and not the more volatile sectors like food and energy, the Fed gets a steadier look at the big economic picture. Still, economists are gravitating toward other gauges of inflation.

Two Areas Making the Bulk of the Jobs Shortfall Aug 10, 2021

Even with the economy rebounding, nonfarm employment is still several million below of its pre-pandemic mark. Schools and restaurants account for a big share, but signs point in the right direction.

Supply Chain Bottlenecks Are the Hangover After Hunkering Down Aug 03, 2021

The second-quarter GDP report reveals the culprit behind inventory shortages: A rare divergence between final demand and production. Jim explains how the situation will probably ease.

“Transitory” Tells the Full Inflation Story Jul 27, 2021

Inflation readings and price pressures all point toward pandemic bottlenecks. That’s why the Fed’s “transitory” explanation is the right idea.

Ready for the Challenge: Leaders Optimistic on Innovation Jul 20, 2021

A JPMorgan Chase survey of mid-sized businesses suggests leaders are confident as companies bounce back from the pandemic. They also give insight into how they navigated the last year, and, perhaps more importantly, how they plan to take on the next challenges and opportunities.

What’s Fueling Price Jumps at the Pump? Jul 13, 2021

We’re moving around again, and that’s giving a lift to industries slowed by the pandemic. Jim explains how the energy and aviation sectors offer a glimpse at what’s ahead.

How Much More GDP Will it Take to Fix the Job Market? Jul 06, 2021

The nation’s GDP has just about recovered to pre-pandemic levels. So why isn’t the job market catching up? Jim explains why the economy’s going to have to grow much faster to hit Fed targets.

Why Housing’s Outlook is Still Bright Jun 29, 2021

May home sales fell for the fourth straight month as tight inventories and rising prices put a drag on the market. Time to worry? Jim offers four reasons why he thinks housing will be favorable in the coming months.

Connecting the Dots on the Fed's Rate Move Jun 22, 2021

So it’s happened. On June 16, the Federal Reserve announced an earlier time line for when it might raise interest rates. With the markets still shifting in response, Jim takes a deeper look at what Fed policymakers said—and why watching the economy’s reopening in the coming weeks could tell us much more.

Why the Fed Thinks Price Increases are Temporary Jun 15, 2021

There’s plenty of continuing concern about inflation, but Jim notes that the Fed’s message about higher prices being “transitory” remains on point. He points out that supply chain bottlenecks forced by sudden, fast-returning demand in key industries are the more likely culprit in today’s rising prices, and could be temporary.

Why Taper Talk Shouldn’t Trigger a Market Tantrum Jun 08, 2021

Last week, the Fed reported its members discussed whether it’s time to start talking about adjusting asset purchases the central bank has used to steer the pandemic economy—triggering brief market volatility. Jim thinks the Fed won’t keep policy easy forever, but likely won’t rush to unwind either. Here’s why.

People, Productivity and the Pandemic Recovery Jun 01, 2021

Labor productivity is one of the toughest economic concepts to measure, yet a central storyline in every economic rebound. Jim looks at how demographic trends, technological advancements and policy changes could shape human productivity, hiring and economic growth during the pandemic recovery—and beyond.

What Do Inflationary Signals Mean Now? May 25, 2021

Inflation news continues to drive headlines—rising prices for cars, lumber, gasoline and basic materials will do that. But central banks—including the Fed—have called these pricing pressures “transitory.” Jim explains why there’s much more to the current inflation picture than what’s on the sales receipt.

Looking at the Challenge of Finding Workers May 18, 2021

With more than 10 million jobs needing to be filled to meet the Fed’s full employment targets, why are people still talking about worker shortages? Jim examines this stubborn hiring problem—how it likely started, why it could persist despite current pandemic policies and what actions could potentially address it.

About That April Jobs Report May 11, 2021

Last week’s perceived shortfall in April employment definitely had people talking. Jim sees more in the latest fundamentals that are likely moving the U.S. closer to the Federal Reserve’s “maximum employment” targets than most might think.

Watching the Next Big Economic Story May 04, 2021

This Friday’s April jobs report could be the economic headline of the week. But Jim reminds us there’s always more happening behind the data. How emerging demographic and migration patterns are likely shaping the U.S. economy’s post-pandemic narrative.

Looking at New Inflation Worries Apr 27, 2021

The Fed meets this week amid continued signs of economic recovery—and a rising chorus of inflation concerns. Jim takes a closer look at historic policy actions during recent financial emergencies and explains why current pricing worries could be short-lived.

A Wakeup Call for Business Loan Demand? Apr 20, 2021

A pickup in capital investment can explain a lot about the future expansion business leaders are planning. First-quarter business loan growth looked drowsy at best, but Jim thinks that’s not the full story. He looks at four economic developments that restricted credit needs in 2020 that are likely lifting now—meaning new business lending momentum may already be underway.

Where the Economic Conversation Might Go Next Apr 13, 2021

After a disruptive pandemic year, the nation’s economic discussion seems headed back to more familiar territory on expansion, markets and income equality. However, Jim examines key developments over the past year that could actually produce a brighter picture on these issues than seen even before last year’s lockdowns.

The Economy Gets a Spring Break Apr 06, 2021

The nation added 916,000 jobs in March amid continuing improvement in COVID-19 vaccinations and in key spending sectors like autos and travel. But Jim says this recovery road trip is likely far from over—and employment may have to pass some big mile markers to get home by year-end.

How ‘People in Motion’ Could Move Commercial Real Estate Mar 30, 2021

Whenever we return to the office, what will it look like—and where might it be? Jim examines recent economic, demographic and workplace cultural trends that could shape commercial real estate as employees consider where they want to work, live and retire post-pandemic.

3 Reasons the Fed’s So Relaxed About Inflation Mar 23, 2021

With last week’s positive Federal Reserve forecast, longtime Fed watchers might have sensed something missing—decades-old jitters about rising prices, perhaps? With the recovering U.S. economy likely headed for its strongest growth in almost 40 years, Jim takes a closer look at the central bank’s new world and why it’s sticking to current rate policy even if inflation begins to stir.

Watching the Fed’s Game Plan Mar 16, 2021

With the economy increasingly on the mend, could the Federal Reserve be closer to adjusting policy? Jim zeroes in on this week’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting for a closer look amid recent moves in the bond market and positive signals on jobs and economic growth.

Stocks Are From Mars and Bonds Are From Venus? Mar 09, 2021

Some people say stocks and bonds are from two different planets—why else have bond yields been so low this past year despite a bullish stock market? Jim explores a few potential answers, including the effects of central bank asset purchases and the relationship between interest rates and earnings expectations.

Tracking the Pace of Recovery Mar 02, 2021

Day by day, wider COVID-19 vaccination has business owners visualizing a recovery with real staying power. But the amount of time it takes for the hardest-hit sectors to rebound—including hospitality, air travel and services—will vary. Jim checks the data and offers a picture of how the recovery may progress this year and next.

Consumer Spending: Hungry for More? Feb 23, 2021

Consumer spending is now back to pre-pandemic levels, but it’s likely to take a lot more than home delivery to satisfy consumer appetites in the coming months. Jim takes a look at fresh economic signals that could make 2021 the year of the consumer.

Two Sectors to Watch in Manufacturing’s Recovery Feb 16, 2021

While some manufacturers benefited from the COVID-19 e-commerce boom in 2020, makers of aerospace and oil and gas products are still navigating significant challenges. Jim examines developments that could put these critical U.S. manufacturing sectors back to full capacity soon.

Cooling Concerns About an Overheating Economy Feb 09, 2021

With a third massive health and economic pandemic relief package moving through Congress, Jim examines concerns about overstimulating the economy and why a temperate outcome is more likely.

Tackling the Jobs Recovery Feb 02, 2021

As the Biden administration accelerates its COVID-19 vaccination rollout and Congress negotiates a new round of economic stimulus, Jim sees a game plan that could return the U.S. to full employment by year-end.

What’s Ahead for Biden’s Global Business Agenda Jan 26, 2021

In this special edition of Economic Take, Jim brings back JPMorgan Chase colleagues Mel Martinez, former U.S. Senator from Florida and Chairman of the Southeast U.S. and Latin America, and Morgan McGrath, Head of International Banking for the Commercial Bank. The three discuss potential moves by the Biden administration for new economic stimulus, infrastructure spending, immigration policy and global trade, particularly with China.

Discussing Biden’s Economic Agenda Jan 19, 2021

In this special pre-inauguration edition of Economic Take, Jim checks in with Heather Higginbottom, President of JPMorgan Chase PolicyCenter. With widespread economic, health and social challenges facing the new Biden Administration, what policies could emerge to improve economic equity and financial resiliency for workers, families and small businesses?

Why Disruptive News Isn’t Disrupting the Market Jan 12, 2021

Why are markets still flying so high despite surging pandemic cases and political unrest in Washington? Jim looks at a couple of possible causes, including recent developments in nationwide COVID-19 vaccination efforts and the possibility of more federal fiscal stimulus.

The Road Ahead: 2021 Business Leaders Outlook Jan 05, 2021

In this special edition of Economic Take, Jim unpacks major results from the 2021 Business Leaders Outlook with John Simmons, Head of Middle Market Banking & Specialized Industries at JPMorgan Chase Commercial Banking. In a business world changed virtually overnight by COVID-19, Jim and John discuss a big year-end swing in executive optimism and business performance, as well as factors that may shape 2021.

Watching the Economic Thermostat Dec 15, 2020

2020 closes on a hopeful note with the start of U.S. COVID-19 vaccinations—and not a moment too soon. With pandemic cases now surging, shutdowns could still happen. However, Jim looks at recent data in some of the hardest-hit industries and finds that our lockdown habits and continued consumer spending strength could still add economic warmth in the weeks ahead.

What’s Moving Markets Ahead Dec 08, 2020

Despite rising COVID-19 cases and November’s employment gains falling slightly below expectations, Jim looks at continuing signs of economic momentum that could accelerate with FDA vaccine approvals as early as this week.

Why Stocks Hit Record Highs During the Pandemic Dec 01, 2020

Even after the world receives an effective vaccine, the COVID-19 pandemic is likely to impact the global economy for some time. Yet just last week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average reached another record high. Jim looks at how this year’s impressive business performance numbers and rising market valuations are already driving confidence for 2021.

How an Effective Vaccine May Spur the Recovery Nov 24, 2020

It’s the holiday gift that everyone’s been waiting for—several potential COVID-19 vaccines that are nearly ready for distribution. Jim explains how an aggressive effort to vaccinate the public could build on the momentum created by business and consumer activity to help fuel the economic recovery.

How Workforce Demographics and Population Flows Could Shape the Recovery Nov 17, 2020

Successful COVID-19 vaccine trials and improving job numbers are potential bright spots for the economic recovery—but what about the office market outlook? Jim explains how shifts in workforce demographics and population flows may impact not just when, but where employees return to work.

Keeping an Eye on the Jobs Picture Nov 10, 2020

Jim looks beyond October’s solid job numbers to legislative and medical milestones that could return the U.S. to pre-COVID-19 unemployment levels by late 2021.

Why This Week’s Biggest Economic Event Isn’t the Election Nov 03, 2020

Jim looks past Election Day to Friday’s release of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics’ employment report. Significant recent drops in insured unemployment coupled with strong signs of pent-up consumer demand could beat the White House for the biggest economic story of the week.

A Pre-Election Conversation on Trade, Tax and Fiscal Policy Oct 27, 2020

In this special 2020 election edition of Economic Take, Jim speaks with JPMorgan Chase colleagues Mel Martinez, former U.S. Senator from Florida and the firm’s chairman of the Southeast U.S and Latin America, and Morgan McGrath, head of International Banking for the Commercial Bank. The three take a look at potential election outcomes in the White House and Congress and how spending, global trade, tax and fiscal policy could evolve under the next administration.

How the Expiration of Federal Unemployment Benefits Impacted Consumer Spending Oct 20, 2020

In this special edition of Economic Take, Jim checks in with Fiona Greig, Director of Consumer Research at the JPMorgan Chase Institute, on how the shutoff of federal pandemic unemployment assistance is affecting out-of-work consumers. It may be a worrisome spot in an otherwise brightening jobs picture.

Assessing the Inflation Risk of COVID-19 Deficit Spending Oct 13, 2020

The federal deficit was $3.1 trillion for the 2020 fiscal year. This record amount has some economists revisiting the popular theory that deficits may cause inflation. But is there any evidence that COVID-19 fiscal support could overstimulate the economy?

Why the Job Market Is Recovering Slower Than GDP Oct 06, 2020

U.S. GDP has regained nearly 86% of the ground it lost to COVID-19 disruptions at the beginning of the year. For the job market to match this pace of recovery, 7.5 million more people would need to be employed by now. What factors are contributing to the gap between national output and employment numbers? Hint: It’s not all due to the pandemic.

Why the Air Travel Industry Remains Grounded Sep 29, 2020

While the broader U.S. economy has nearly reached its cruising altitude since the start of the pandemic, the air travel industry is still struggling to take off. The mains reasons why may be more psychological than economic—can innovative measures and faster COVID-19 testing help reassure the public that it’s safe to fly again?

The Fed’s View to 2023 Sep 22, 2020

Our jobs picture keeps getting better, but last week, the Fed reported it’s keeping rates near zero through 2023. Is this part of the Fed’s new approach to managing inflation or something more nuanced?

Solving the Unemployment Riddle Sep 15, 2020

The number of Americans currently unemployed is now half of what it was back in April, but still far above the 3.5% rate in February. Yet, wage growth is pretty strong and recent surveys show businesses have nearly 7 million unfilled jobs. How has the pandemic affected the U.S. worker shortage and how may immigration reform play a role in solving it?

The Three Fates of the Recovery Sep 08, 2020

Don’t look to a typical business cycle to explain the economic recovery from COVID-19. Instead, this week, we look at three trends involving the stock market, the job market and consumer activity and what they mean for national output.

Two Key Takeaways from the Fed’s New Inflation Approach Sep 01, 2020

Last week, the Federal Reserve announced it would tolerate inflation “moderately” above its 2% target—why did the central bank do this now and what does it mean for financial markets? Also this week: signs of a consumer-driven Q3 GDP surge and a snapshot of the state of the job market.

What Awoke the Sleeping Real Estate Giant? Aug 25, 2020

After remaining dormant for more than a decade, the U.S. housing sector has roared back to life in the middle a pandemic and an economic crisis. This week we take a look at what may be contributing to this residential real estate tailwind, including: favorable aggregate income trends, low mortgage rates and demographic shifts.

COVID-19’s Impact on the Higher Education Economy Aug 18, 2020

Colleges and universities contribute up to 4% of U.S. GDP when you add up tuition costs, room and board, NCAA revenues and research dollars—virtual classrooms and cancelled sporting events will likely have a big impact on the higher education sector this fall. Also this week: a look at the strained finances of states and local communities due to COVID-19 disruptions.

3 Key Takeaways from the July Jobs Report Aug 11, 2020

What does the state of the job market in July tell us about the broader U.S. economy? Also this week: Why the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet is starting to shrink and how the Fed is changing the way it manages inflation.

Beyond the Headlines: What the GDP Report Tells Us Aug 04, 2020

Last week’s historic GDP report—showing a 32.9% annualized drop—drove a lot of news headlines, which at the surface-level, didn’t tell us much about where the economy is headed. Let’s dig a little deeper into the report and unearth four additional nuggets of data that may provide some answers about the months ahead.

Examining the Outsized Role of Unemployment Insurance in the COVID-19 Economy Jul 28, 2020

In this special edition of Economic Take, Jim speaks with Fiona Greig, Director of Consumer Research at the JPMorgan Chase Institute, about a new report on the impact unemployment insurance has had on consumer spending and the U.S. economy since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Are We Experiencing a Spring Quarantine Déjà Vu? Jul 21, 2020

Efforts to contain the latest flare-up of COVID-19 cases in the U.S. will probably not result in the same economic upheaval of March and April. Meanwhile, retail sales, the CPI, manufacturing output and housing starts in June all provide a favorable impression of the state of the recovery.

What Investors See As COVID-19 Cases Surge Jul 14, 2020

In the last couple of weeks, several populous states, including Florida, Texas and California, have experienced flare-ups in COVID-19 cases. Despite this, the stock market continues to rise and is once again near February’s historic highs. Is the market losing touch with economic reality or are investors seeing real silver linings?

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