Economic Take

Latest Episodes:

Think of the Fed as a Foghorn Feb 15, 2022

Show notes

The Federal Reserve has clearly communicated its goals for months. So why hasn’t it changed course in the face of the latest inflation readings?

Moving the Goalposts On Employment Feb 08, 2022

Show notes

A peculiar thing happened in January’s jobs report. The labor force grew by 1.4 million, but after an annual population adjustment, the labor force actually contracted. Why does BLS change the measurements, and how does that affect the way we look at trends?

Don’t Let the Fed’s Talk Give You Heartburn Feb 01, 2022

Show notes

The upcoming rise in interest rates has the markets unsettled. But the Federal Reserve’s plans are colored by a bullish view of the economy’s growth, not a hawkish outlook wary of an economic downturn.

Why An Interest Shift Won’t Scare Housing Jan 25, 2022

Show notes

With the Fed already starting to pull back from pandemic supports, interest rates are expected to climb in 2022. While that may dampen mortgages, enough other changes over the past few years should leave housing in a healthy place.

Inflation’s Most Useful Indicators Jan 18, 2022

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When it comes to inflation, it takes two to tango—aggregate demand and aggregate supply. Comparing prices to the pre-pandemic world of 2019 tells a remarkably different story than a one-year lookback.

Business Leaders Feel Good About ’22 Jan 11, 2022

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In our 2022 Business Leaders Outlook survey, we found that business leaders across the U.S. have a rosy view of the year ahead. While pandemic-driven challenges linger, they’re not really getting in the way of growth and profits.

A Round of Applause for 2021 Dec 21, 2021

Show notes

It may not feel like it with the market trending down in the last month, but in 2021 we witnessed a remarkably fast economic recovery. And there’s good reason to be upbeat for 2022.

Why Car Sales Will Steer 2022’s Economic Growth Dec 14, 2021

Show notes

The economy is expected to grow steadily in 2022, but there are a few reasons that shouldn’t worsen current pricing pressures.

Underneath the Surface of the Jobs Numbers Dec 07, 2021

Show notes

The Fed’s ultimate goal of stable inflation requires aggregate demand to align with aggregate supply. That hinges on the supply of labor, and unemployment is the best measure of that alignment.

Looking for Blame in All the Wrong Places Nov 30, 2021

Show notes

Even though we know the culprit behind inflation, we’re still susceptible to superstition. We tend to link inflation headlines with monetary and fiscal policy actions. Jim debunks a few popular misconceptions about recent Fed activity.

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