Beyond the Polls with Henry Olsen

Smash and Grab Politics with Amy Walter Mar 06, 2025

Henry and The Cook Political Report's Amy Walter reconvene after Donald Trump's address before Congress. They wonder how Tuesday's performance will play with the voters outside Trump's base who won him the election; consider the risks attendant to his coalition in making moves on Ukraine and tariffs; and think through partisan mandate strategy in a country with a teeter-totter electorate. Plus, they look to 2026 and beyond to speculate on who might help the flat-footed opposition regain its balance.

Kevin Roberts on the Permanent Things Feb 27, 2025

To have any attachment to conservatism since the Reagan renewal is to have at least a glancing acquaintanceship with the Heritage Foundation. Under its current president, Kevin Roberts, that pivotal institution is shifting gears to settle this century's conservative-populist synthesis. Kevin and Henry sit down to dive into Roberts' new book, Dawn's Early Light: Taking Back Washington to Save America. Along with making the serious case for the promised Golden Age, the two discuss the spiritual war that's facing the country, institutional control burns, and the debate over America the Idea versus America the Nation.

Tear Down This Firewall Feb 20, 2025

Germany's parliamentary elections will take place on Sunday, and for the first time since the fall of the Third Reich, a nationalist party is a major player. To start, Henry breaks down the rules of the game and assesses the polling for the many parties in the mix. Next, he's joined by Katja Hoyer to discuss the Alternative for Germany (AfD) party's stunning rise along with a deep dive into the factions within that will vie for control of Deutschland's now-second largest party.
And if you're looking for analysis as the returns come in on Sunday, be sure to check out Henry's live stream which you can watch on X! (You'll find it at @henryolsenEPPC.)
Music for this week:
Open: Beethoven – Symphony No. 9 (Finale ‘Ode to Joy’), via Spat Music
Close: America the Beautiful — Simon Armitage Music, via MotionArray

The Energetic Executive with John Yoo Feb 13, 2025

Despite the kerfuffle that President Trump is initiating a Constitutional crisis, the confusion and frustration surrounding his executive actions fit within a fairly common modern trend: Congress’s institutional inaction leaves a power vacuum which the president sets out to fill. In anticipation of the Supreme Court weighing in, Henry sits down with the inestimable John Yoo to discuss the larger constitutional questions that Trump’s test cases are likely to settle. Tune in for a refresher on the distinction between the separation of powers and checks and balances; an explanation of the unitary executive theory; and considerations on how justices may come down on the decisions that will be put before them.

Cooking with What's In the Kitchen Feb 06, 2025

Conventional wisdom has it that the Democratic Party lost in November after moving too far to the left on its social and economic stances. But these are hardly conventional times, so why not let an outsider have a say? Henry sits down with Maurice Mitchell, National Director of the Working Families Party, to discuss the WFP’s aim to win elections by offering a progressive alternative to the corporate-aligned Democratic Party. Maurice takes us through the WFP’s break with Democrats in 1998 and its 26-year history; he points out the attention they’ve achieved nationwide and the obstacles they’ve faced in a rigid two-party system. Further, he disputes the calls for centrism following Kamala Harris’s defeat and illustrates how the Working Families Party platform has a future in a country hungry for change.

Bopping with the Bobos, with David Brooks Jan 30, 2025

A quarter century after publishing his famous book about the ascendant bohemian bourgeoise ("Bobo") upper class, New York Times columnist David Brooks has found cause to reconsider the new elite. He and Henry sit down to discuss the vanities of that insular group, the incongruence of their public espousals and private behavior, and how some form of nationalist populism was the public's best available means of course correction.

Deciphering Our Political Matrix: Is America Red-Pilled? Jan 23, 2025

Sean Trende, RealClearPolitics' Senior Elections Analyst and author of The Lost Majority, returns to share his insights on America's versicolored electorate. He and Henry discuss the country's small-C conservative disposition that Donald Trump won over with his "revolution in common sense". They consider the profound difference between the start of Trump's second term, exemplified by his day one preparedness, along with the challenges he'll face in juggling his coalition's disparate priorities. On the other hand, they consider the great task before the Democratic Party — an uphill battle with a let's-rock-the-boat base whose preferred candidates don't appeal to the center.

Uniting Capital and Labor with Karl Rove Jan 17, 2025

If you wanna win an election, you gotta build a coalition—just don't expect it to last forever. As we enter the second quarter of this American century, Henry sits down with Karl Rove to discuss the coalition he helped forge at the millennium's beginning. But they don't stop there! Karl and Henry find valuable lessons in the Republican Party's working-class appeal during the McKinley era, on to the Compassionate Conservatism of the aughts, and finally to Donald Trump's assertive MAGA movement.

Shuffling Through the Bargaining Chips Jan 09, 2025

Beyond the Polls is back! This week, Henry sits down with the Washington Post's Jason Willick to go over Donald Trump's haul ahead of his second inauguration. The duo speculates on everything from the president-elect's comments about desired new territories, defense aspirations, and tariffs, before considering how all of this fits with the MAGA coalition and how his maneuvers will play with the judiciary that Trump helped build in term one.
Plus, Henry surveys the electorate's sentiments on presidents past and present as laid out in the latest Economist/YouGov poll.

Third Rail or Third Way? Dec 19, 2024

For our last journey beyond the polls of the year, we examine the Democratic Party's options post-2024. Jonathan Cowan, president of the centrist think tank Third Way, joins Henry to explain how the left wing took over the party vessel and how they ran it off the tracks. They consider whether Democrats will get the message in time to compete in 2028 and go over the playbook necessary for those center-left candidates who are serious about winning elections.
Henry's off for the holidays, but stay subscribed—or get started if you haven't already!—and we'll see you back in 2025.

Stumbling Blocks Dec 13, 2024

This week on Beyond the Polls, Henry sits down with Tim Goeglein of Focus on the Family to cover his new book, Stumbling Toward Utopia: How the 1960s Turned Into a National Nightmare and How We Can Revive the American Dream. They dive into the early roots of the midcentury's cultural upheaval and consider why Americans seem ready to turn back the tide.
Plus, Henry eschews Beltway insider opinions in favor of ordinary Americans' take on Trump and Harris post-election, along with Trump's cabinet selections, as shown in recent polling data.

By Popular Demand Dec 06, 2024

It's an all-rant episode this week as Henry breaks down the latest polling on Donald Trump's boosted favorability. (They like him. They really like him!) Plus, we go abroad to take a look at the populist movements that are sinking European establishmentarians who were meant to keep this global movement at bay.

Quo Vadis, Democrats? Nov 21, 2024

For years, Ruy Texiera has warned Democrats of the consequences of its moves away from the working-class voters who have held up the popular party since the days of FDR. Today, he and Henry work out a few answers to the question Ruy posed in his recent book, Where Have All the Democrats Gone? They go over the insularity that's led the elite leftward, consider the intra-party fights necessary to break up the club, and wonder how long it will take for such punchy liberal patriots to emerge.

Called It! Nov 07, 2024

Want a detailed analysis of Tuesday's red wave but don't know whose to take to the bank? Why not give a listen to the guy who boldly predicted the results? That's right, our own Henry Olsen got it about as right as could be! So this week's episode is an all-rant breakdown of who voted which way, why they went there, and what to expect from voters and the parties beyond 2024.
P.S. Henry's off next week, but be sure to stay subscribed to Beyond the Polls (or hop on if you haven't already), because we're taking this podcast to 2025!

Brit Hume on a Race Like No Other Oct 31, 2024

Henry’s guest for the final pre-election episode of the season has covered political campaigns for quite some time. But he’s never seen anything like the election we’re looking at today. Brit Hume and Henry discuss how the game has changed since they started: covering everything from the new media landscape, marked by a turn from the standard of neutrality to polling in the age of models, along with the fiercely divided electorate and these once-unimaginable candidates.
Plus, Henry rants his way through all the swing states to make as plain as possible the complicated rules and regulations, procedures and peculiarities that will affect the Election Day result rollout. And he does a lightning-fast ad roundup of the ultra-close House races in Colorado 8, Pennsylvania 10, Arizona 1, and Michigan 10 to consider whether they might push the needle just over the edge.
Happy Election Day, everyone!

The Switch in Time to Hold Rs to Nine? Oct 24, 2024

The Harris Campaign is pulling out all the stops to edge out Donald Trump in what looks set to be the closest election since 2000. Lately, these efforts have concentrated on energizing enthusiasm among black voters. To discuss the alleged inroads made by Republicans with this group and to consider whether Democrats can hold onto their usual 90+ percent hold, Henry is joined by his pal Eugene Robinson, Pulitzer Prize winning columnist of the Washington Post. They also take a couple of pit stops in the past to assess, on the one hand, Donald Trump's unique talents, and on the other, what Joe Biden might do to assist his vice president's bid.
Plus, Henry dives into the early vote returns and lays out what we can and can't know based on the models; and he takes a look at two dueling ads out of Florida that aim to sway voters for and against the state's abortion ballot initiative.

The Early Voting Forecast: From Storm Season to Election Season Oct 17, 2024

We may be three weeks from Election Day, but votes are already being cast. To get a handle on what's going on, Henry sits down with the foremost early voting expert, Michael McDonald of the University of Florida. They go into the history of the accommodation and the trends of both the methods' expansion, along with the changes in how Democrats and Republicans are using the available options. They also get into the rule differences among the swing states that will affect how the returns come in on November 5th.
Plus, Henry dives into the Harris campaign's concerns over her polling numbers with Black voters, and he zips through a lightning-round ad breakdown for key races in Pennsylvania, Arizona and New York.

Wisconsin Whiplash! Oct 10, 2024

Don’t count the Badger State out. It’s very much in play, but keeping up with moving parts and pieces can be downright dizzying. Craig Gilbert of Marquette Law School and the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel joins Henry to properly orient us to a state with Obama-Trump voters in the West, Anti-Trump Republicans in the suburbs, and one oh-so-narrow Senate race.
Plus, Mr. Olsen finally has some company to spread the news about the Republican Party’s novel voter identification edge. He breaks down what this best-kept non-secret means for strategists, and assesses how the Harris and Trump campaigns are responding.
And, as always, Henry’s got ads! This week he takes a look at the light touch approach taken by John Duarte of CA-13 to win over weary Independents, alongside Susan Wild’s ingenious ploy for young women in PA-7.

A Prevent Defense October? Oct 03, 2024

Wall Street Journal's Gerard Baker joins Henry to consider how J.D. Vance's debate performance might have given us a glimpse of post-Trump populism, and they discuss how Trump and Harris might win undecided voters by sticking to their (wildly different) campaigning guns.
Plus, Henry draws our attention to three far-flung disturbances that have the potential to form into great October surprises; and he takes a close look at two competing ads aimed at defining PA senatorial candidate Dave McCormick based on his time in the private sector.

Reports from the Middle of Somewhere, PA Sep 26, 2024

Selena Zito joins Henry today to talk about the all-important Keystone State. They discuss the voter sentiment shift that occurred between Obama's ten-point win in 2008 and Trump's narrow victory in 2016. They home in on the counties that will decide who takes Pennsylvania's 19 electoral votes, and consider how Kamala Harris's slight lead in the polls might be overstated.
Plus, Henry dives into the early voting numbers thus far. Is much ado being made about just a little? Tune in for big answers!

Toss Ups and Vanishing Ticket Splitters Sep 12, 2024

In the era of the perpetual campaign, debates don't move the polls like they used to. But Henry breaks down how, in a presidential race as tight as this, Kamala Harris' victory on Tuesday night may move the needle one or two points in a race where one or two points makes all the difference.
Then, Kyle Kondik of Sabato's Crystal Ball joins to give an update on the key House and Senate races. He and Henry play out hypothetical scenarios on how a narrow Trump or Harris win in toss-up districts might sway the chambers.
Finally, Henry takes a look at Angela Alsobrooks' latest ad, which tries to sway Independents and Democrat leaners from putting Larry Hogan on the national stage.

Has Harris’ Sugar Rush Faded? Sep 05, 2024

Upon gaining the Democratic Party's nomination, Kamala Harris's favorability rating surged from below her boss's historic low to nearly 50 percent today. But did the swell come too soon? Fox News Radio analyst and Editor-in-Chief of Jewish Insider Josh Kraushaar joins to discuss the post-convention slump, along with a review of how the lingering war in Gaza and unsettling chatter from extreme partisans might affect the Jewish vote in November.
Plus, Henry gives special attention to a recent piece by Patrick Rufini about overestimated margins in past elections that could help us spot potential polling errors. And he takes a look at a couple of ads out of Michigan 8: Kristen McDonald Rivet's quirky tax-cutter introduction ad and challenger Paul Junge's spot to define her on radical social positions.

Can American Elections Be Trusted? Aug 29, 2024

Since the 2020 election, American political observers have heard a great deal about voter fraud. But media coverage tends to either enthusiastically endorse or vehemently dismiss the accusations without parsing out the details of what’s being alleged. Today’s guest, Arizona elections analyst Garrett Archer, takes us through the process that occurs between your submitting a ballot and its tallying. He and Henry get into the weeds on everything from signature verification and speculation about machine hacking, to late-night swings and the canvassing process, along with why it takes so long to count the votes.
Plus, Henry delves into RFK Jr.’s withdrawal from the race and considers who stands to gain. And he takes a close look at two ads—one for Republican Rob Bresnahan of Northeastern Pennsylvania and another for Democrat Hillary Scholten of West Michigan—who both make deft appeals to swing voters in districts where the candidates’ party hardly enjoys a firm majority.

The Consultant’s Axiom Aug 22, 2024

Today’s guest, Jeff Roe—who’s been dubbed “the next Karl Rove”—grew up on a hog farm and is the founder of Axiom Strategies, a renowned Republican consulting firm. Guess which trade he thinks is dirtier? He joins Henry to give us the insider’s take on the practical realities of campaign strategy, past, present and future.
Plus, as the DNC comes to a close, Henry asks the multi-million dollar question: Does this show really matter anymore?

Decisions, Decisions: Ranked-Choice Voting in the Last Frontier Aug 15, 2024

In Alaska's 2022 special election, candidates as varied as Sarah Palin and Mary Peltola to Santa Claus were on the ballot. That year was also unique for offering ranked-choice voting, allowing conflicted residents to cast as many as four picks with descending weight. In November, both the incumbent Peltola and the ranked-choice repeal initiative are on the ballot, so Henry recruits the Alaska Beacon's James Brooks to give us a tour of the vast electoral wilderness.
Plus, Henry wonders about the staying power of Kamala-mania; and unpacks an Arizona attack ad that highlights the firebrand Kari Lake's baggage.

A Walz in the Park? Aug 08, 2024

The tickets are set, and Americans are looking at a stark choice between two very different futures. Henry is joined by Michael Podhorzer — former political director of the AFL-CIO and author of the Weekend Reading substack. The two dive into the campaign framing between a MAGA or normal election that past polling shows will all but guarantee the outcome in November.
Plus, Henry rants on what Tim Walz's selection tells us about the Harris campaign; and he takes a look at Ohio Democrat Sherrod Brown's border ad where he poses as... a Republican.

An Unconventional Convention Jul 31, 2024

With Joe Biden's decision to drop out from the presidential race, the Democratic Party has been forced to improvise. But there's a method to what looks like madness! Joining Henry today is the Brookings Institution's Elaine Kamarck — author of Primary Politics: Everything You Need to Know about How America Nominates Its Presidential Candidates. Tune in for an in-depth discussion on the process that will straighten out the party's predicament.
Plus, Henry considers how Kamala Harris's placement on the ticket affects the "double haters" that have simultaneously fascinated and flummoxed pollsters; and he takes us through Wesley Bell's latest ad to get the attention of Cori Bush's base.

Appraising Arizona Jul 24, 2024

The tectonic shakeup in American politics continues, as Joe Biden bows out and Kamala Harris appears positioned as Democratic heir apparent. Henry digs into the challenges she faces as a well-known figure with high unfavorability, and considers how she might attempt to expand her appeal. Next, Daniel Scarpinato joins to assess the key primaries in the ever-interesting Grand Canyon State. They break down the fight among Democrats to defeat David Schweikert in AZ 1, the Republican scrap to replace Debbie Lesko in AZ 8, and the race to replace Reuban Gallego in AZ 3. Finally, he takes a look at a moving abortion ad in Nevada that aims to keep Sam Brown out of the Senate.

Within the Polls at Pew Research Jul 18, 2024

It’s been a wicked googly of a week in American politics! To start, Henry appraises how the polls might be affected by both the attempt on Trump’s life and the announcement of an all-outsider ticket, with J.D. Vance in the VP slot. Next, he and Michael Dimock (president of the Pew Research Center) delve into the process of crafting public opinion polls that pin down the perplexing array of citizen sentiments. Lastly, he takes a look at another ad of the week — this time from a problem-solving newcomer running in Wisconsin’s 8th.

Pressing Matters with Dana Perino Jul 10, 2024

Washington's worst-kept secret is out: Joe Biden is not up to the job he's campaigning for. Today's guest is former White House Press Secretary and Fox News host Dana Perino. No stranger to balancing the priorities of the nation's inquiring minds with those of the administration, she joins Henry to discuss a presidential fiasco like no other we've ever seen.
Plus, Henry digs into the debate that finally got Democrats talking about Biden's decline; considers how down-ballot candidates will be affected; and speculates on how the party might clean up its mess. He also takes a look at Maggie Newlander's impressive introductory ad.

Get the Bloody Tories Out! Jul 02, 2024

After 14 years at the helm, the polls tell us the British Tories are facing a slaughter on Thursday. To get at the party’s collapse, Henry hops across the pond to discuss British politics with a couple of swell chaps. First up is The Times’ Tim Montgomerie, who covers the post-Brexit smashing victory and the subsequent failure to deliver to the new coalition. Then Matthew Goodwin joins to dig into the rise of Nigel Farage, UKIP, and the Reform Party’s challenge to the status quo.
And if you're new to the British parliamentary system, fret not! Henry's got a rant to get you up to speed.
- Music from this week's show: "Rule, Britannia" performed by the Prince's Military Band and "The Star Spangled Banner" performed by Frank C. Stanley (via the Library of Congress)

Money Talks Jun 27, 2024

If you want to win an election, you gotta campaign. And to campaign, you gotta get a lotta dough! This week Henry chats with R. Rebecca Donatelli, founder of Campaign Solutions, for a deep dive into the world of online political fundraising.
Plus, Henry rants ahead of a debate that (we're told) won't change anybody's mind. And he breaks down a big introduction ad for a newcomer candidate who hopes to take Kansas 2.

Utah’s GOP: Nice Guys Finish First? Jun 20, 2024

Chuck Warren of the Breaking Battlegrounds Podcast joins Henry for a close inspection of the ever-interesting state of Utah. They get into the characteristics that make it a red state like no other as they dig into the primaries for Mitt Romney's Senate seat and congressional districts 2 and 3.
Plus, Henry takes a look at Trump's sustained lead in the polls; later he compares the ad strategies of South Carolina CD 3 primary candidates Mark Burns and Sheri Biggs.

Crystal Ball of the Cavalier State Jun 13, 2024

J. Miles Coleman, Associate Editor of Sabato's Crystal Ball, returns to peer into the contested primaries in Virginia's 5th, 7th and 10th congressional districts. These deep dives into the respectively red, purple and blue territories, Coleman and Henry survey this microcosm of the national stage.
Plus, Henry unpacks Emmanuel Macron's snap election gamble to head off his populist archfoe Marine Le Pen; and he looks at two finely crafted ads for Democrat Mary Peltola's tough reelection bid in Alaska.

Organizing the Clown Car with Mollie Hemingway Jun 06, 2024

The verdict is in but it's still early to tell exactly what it means for Donald Trump's bid to take back the White House. To weigh the possibilities, The Federalist's Mollie Hemingway joins Henry. They also cover Joe Biden's innumerable vulnerabilities to an electorate whose minds may remain unchanged; they parse through the criteria Trump might consider for his VP pick; and appraise the conservative brand in the counter-revolutionary era.
Plus, Henry takes a close look at Josh Stein's ad attacking Mark Robinson's fervent anti-abortion statements in hopes of pulling ahead in the tight North Carolina Governor's race.

Amy Walter on the Devils We Know Too Well May 30, 2024

Cook Political Report's Amy Walter returns to the podcast to break down the latest findings from her 2024 Swing State Project. She explains voters' thoughts and expectations on the economy; provides analysis of the low Undecided/high third party numbers; and offers her take on the Democrats' scramble to keep its diverse base on the party premises.
Plus, Henry dives into a multi-decadal series of "Right Direction/Wrong Track" polling results to give us a sense of what it might mean for November; and he takes a look at John Avlon's deft pitch for partisan Ds and moderate Rs in New York's red 1st Congressional District.

Betting it All with Steve Kornacki May 23, 2024

As Donald Trump leads on the backstretch of the 2024 presidential race, Biden makes use of his whip, challenging his opponent to an unconventional debate. Henry takes a deep dive into this necessary bold strategy. Then he's joined by NBC's national political correspondent Steve Kornacki. The two discuss the president's failure to gain traction as Trump maintains momentum.
Plus, Henry takes a close look at two ads for Tony Gonzalez — one from his campaign, the other from the RCJ SuperPac — against challenger Brandon Herrera in Texas 23.

The Silly, the Sublime and the (Maybe Even) Serious May 16, 2024

Henry’s back after a brief hiatus as election season heats up! He's joined by National Review's Jim Geraghty to parse out the parties’ business-as-usual dysfunction from the special brand of it we've gotten used to recently. They consider whether the Republican Party even knows what it wants; what they’ll do if they pull off the trifecta in November; and what we should make of tight polls considering the Biden/Harris ticket’s historic unpopularity.
Plus, Henry delivers his first ever Bad Ad of the Week, in response to Don Blankenship's clunker spot; and he makes a quick stop in Maryland to explain why Angela Alsobrooks' personal touch won out over David Trone's big money.

Party of the People Apr 25, 2024

Patrick Ruffini of Echelon Insights joins to discuss his new book, The Party of the People: Inside the Multiracial Populist Coalition Remaking the GOP. He and Henry consider why the shift has occurred, why so few saw it coming, how sustainable a working class Republican Party really is, and what to make of it as a global phenomenon.
Plus, Henry brings back the dueling ads of the week, this time pitting Jon Tester against Sherrod Brown.

Drunk Parties Seeking Designated Normies Apr 18, 2024

What to make of the astounding, worldwide coalition shifts we've seen over the last decade? There are few better to pose the question to than Ruy Teixiera. He and Henry dive into the Democratic Party's abandonment of the white working class and the Republican Party's clumsy attempt to win them over.
Plus, Henry takes a look at a well-made ad from the Lauren Boebert team

The Mother of All Primaries Apr 11, 2024

Beyond the Polls listeners are all about the little details, and this week Henry's joined by Jacob Rubashkin, Deputy Editor at a premiere nonpartisan political analysis outfit, Inside Elections. They take us through a trip across the country to dig into the approaching Senate primaries in West Virginia & Maryland, along with House primaries in Pennsylvania’s 12th, Indiana 5, Maryland 3, Oregon 5, and the Republican runoff in Texas 23.
Plus, with the fight over abortion heating up, pushing politicians to take concrete positions, Henry takes us through the approaches partisans should consider to move the needle in their direction. And, boy oh boy, we have quite an ad to discuss this week!

Can't Do a Thing If You Ain't Got Them Swings Apr 04, 2024

We take a long look at both sides of the pond this week, accompanied by Director of polling firm JL Partners Scarlett Maguire. She takes us through her team's innovative polling methods which have made them among the standouts for accurate predictions. She also takes us through their latest efforts in following the Trump/Biden rematch in the States and the crisis facing the Tories in Britain.
Plus, Henry breaks down Donald Trump's favorable showing in the Wall Street Journal swing state poll; and for the first time ever, we've got dueling ads of the week!

Mind The Gap Mar 29, 2024

AEI's Senior Fellow Emeritus Karlyn Bowman returns to answer some questions and poses others on one of the essential political puzzles of the day: the growing separation between the sexes. Plus Henry speculates on how Donald Trump might blunt Joe Biden’s cash edge, and breaks down the latest attack ad against Mike Braun.

Whither Reaganism? Mar 21, 2024

Peter Robinson drops by for a detailed discussion with Henry about the road away from The Gipper's GOP. They consider the ways even acolytes misunderstood Reaganism and why that resulted in the extraordinary coalition shifts we're witnessing today.

The Buckeye of the GOP Storm Mar 14, 2024

The Ohio primaries are fast approaching, so we're off to the Buckeye State. Longtime Republican strategist Mark Weaver breaks down the top contests, including the tight, three-way race to take on incumbent Senate Democrat Sherrod Brown. Plus Henry covers Biden’s SOTU address. What does he make of this preview of Joe Biden’s 2024 campaign strategy, and how will the partisan messaging fare as the Democratic Party loses its popular vote edge? Tune in to find out!

General Concerns with Harry Enten Mar 07, 2024

The primary season is over; a second Trump/Biden presidential race is all but certain. Transitioning to the general, CNN psephologist Harry Enten joins to explain the notable demographic shifts and electoral patterns that have taken shape since 2020. Plus, Henry takes us through Donald Trump's unique success at building out from the party base; and we stop by purple Wisconsin to see how Tammy Baldwin goes about defining challenger Eric Hovde.

The Conservative Movement Moves On Feb 29, 2024

Those hoping for a sign that a 2020 presidential rematch could be averted will be disappointed by Tuesday's primaries in the Wolverine State. National Review's Rich Lowry joins to explore what Donald Trump's grip on the GOP means for the future of conservatism. Plus, Henry takes a look at the effectiveness of the Michigan Democratic Party's "Uncommitted" pressure campaign against Joe Biden.

Prepped for a Punchout in the Palmetto State Feb 22, 2024

Donald Trump is set for another smashing victory on Saturday, this time against his lone challenger in her own state of South Carolina. But Nikki Haley's announced that she won't stay down. Charleston Post and Courier Political Editor Schuyler Kropf joins to conduct a close examination of the campaigns. Plus, Henry considers Team Haley's post-South Carolina strategy, and he makes a quick trip up to North Carolina where a new candidate named Fred Von Canon is eager to introduce himself.

From Kennedy to Kardashian: An American Survey Feb 15, 2024

The days of landline polling are gone forever, the internet has changed everything. This week Henry is joined by Chief Scientist at YouGov and Hoover Institution Senior Fellow Douglas Rivers to discuss the innovative methodological approach he uses to find representative polling samples when much of the electorate is unwilling to respond to polls.
Henry also takes a closer look at Tuesday’s special election in New York’s 3rd Congressional District and explains how the good day for Democrats might signal an underlying general election problem for their party. And stay tuned to the end for his take on the Super Bowl ad that got everyone talking about a man named Kennedy.

Second to "None" Feb 08, 2024

Henry may be off in paradise to cover the Virgin Islands' Republican presidential caucuses, but he's back for another deep dive into American politics. He enjoys what looks at first glance like a nothingburger in Nevada, and lays out what it means for Joe Biden, Nikki Haley and the man who wasn't on the GOP primary ticket. He also breaks down Adam Schiff's tricks to face a Republican for California’s empty Senate seat. And you'll hear about the battle for the House with Sabato’s Crystal Ball managing editor Kyle Kondik.

Nate Cohn Threads the Needle Feb 01, 2024

To anyone who seriously follows electoral politics, today's guest will need no introduction. Nate Cohn joins Henry to cover the ins and outs of the polling world: everything from the voter file to polling aggregation; plus Nate's precinct analysis and the “Election Needle”. They also discuss the problems with issue polling and the demographic warning signs for the Democratic Party.
And Henry's got a rant for Joe Biden, whose failure to strike a deal with Mike Johnson means missing out on a political win at home and a policy win abroad.

Around the World with Henry and Hugh Hewitt Jan 25, 2024

Hugh Hewitt joins Beyond the Polls for a rousing discussion of politics at home and abroad. They search for common threads and draw distinctions among the nations seeing populist waves; and they dig in to the Trump-Haley race for the Republican nomination.
Plus, Henry reminds us that the Republican primary wasn’t the only contest held in New Hampshire. Listen to his rant about Joe Biden’s mediocre day in the Granite State and what it could mean for the general election.

All Eyes on N.H. Jan 18, 2024

Nikki Haley's trying to make a stand in New Hampshire. But she has her work cut out for her. Henry reconvenes with his Granite State pal Danta Scala to discuss the turnout Haley needs and the challenges she'll have trying to drive two messages—one to moderates, another to conservatives—in New Hampshire's paid media blizzard.
Plus Henry rants professorially this week to anatomize the Iowa results, and considers an effective Haley ad which utilizes a word we haven't heard much of from her campaign.

A Cold Night in Iowa Jan 11, 2024

One can’t help but wonder if Iowans are really going to go out in droves on a night with expected -35 degree wind chill to cast their votes for Donald Trump, Ron DeSantis, Nikki Haley or Vivek Ramaswamy? President of the Iowa Faith and Freedom Coalition Steve Scheffler joins to remind us that the Hawkeye State is made up of hardy people. He and Henry cover the remaining candidates and what they might reasonably hope for on Monday’s Caucus.
Henry also breaks down the keys to Trump’s successful campaign and Haley’s recent ad that highlights her talent for maximizing appeal to a broad base of voters.

Mischief and Mayhem in Campaign 2024 Jan 04, 2024

The election year has arrived and the quest to defeat Donald Trump continues, but there's a growing suspicion that this journey's heroes are living in a fantasy land. Henry sits down with Spectator Editor-in-Chief Ben Domenech to discuss these interesting times the country finds itself in—and be sure to stick around for Ben's placement of the candidates in the realm of Dungeons and Dragons and popular memes.
And even after last episode's Festivus rant, Henry still has a bone to pick with DeSantis; plus the Ad of the Week is back with Bernie Moreno's short but sweet Trump endorsement spot.

Airing Our (Political) Grievances: It's Festivus Time! Dec 21, 2023

It's our last episode of the year. Before we head into 2024, Henry airs his grievances with the wannabe heavyweights of this cycle. From Joe Biden’s dismal performance, Ron DeSantis' inept campaign, the perpetually grumpy Freedom Caucus that can’t execute on squat, and ambitious progressive Democrats who lack the chutzpah to challenge their party’s unpopular leader: Mr. Olsen's got a lot of problems with these people!
He also chats with Monmouth University Polling Institute's Patrick Murray about the data on the electorate’s dissatisfaction and on parsing through a respondent’s tribal filter. And he welcomes the University of New Hampshire's Dante Scala back to cover the race between Donald Trump and Nikki Haley, along with what the other candidates’ presence on the ballot could mean for the Granite State primary.
Merry Christmas, all. See you again in the election year!

A Snowball's Chance and a Path Through Heck Dec 14, 2023

While it would probably be unwise to bet on Ron DeSantis or Nikki Haley winning the Republican nomination, Henry's back to remind you that it ain't impossible. This week's rant will get you up to speed on what to look out for.
David Wasserman joins to break down a number of key tossups in the House and Senate, and to discuss whether last midterm’s resurgence of emphasis on regional candidate quality will hold up in congressional races during this presidential cycle.

How Many Tickets Out of Iowa? Dec 07, 2023

As promised, Beyond the Polls is back after just one week away! Henry sits down with RCP's Senior Elections Analyst Sean Trende to discuss the scenarios in the Iowa Caucus that could leave a path for Donald Trump's many Republican challengers. Then he and AEI's Senior Fellow Emerita Karlyn Bowman consider whether and how an extremely unpopular Joe Biden can overcome his grim numbers and win in November.
And since it's the season for gifts, Henry has a rant and an ad of the week for you! Get his take on last week's much touted Red State Blue State Debate, along with a review of a puzzling and highly risky ad from the Trump campaign.

Piñata Politics Nov 30, 2023

You’ve had your fill on turkey, now it’s time to get back to the races! In fact, we’re so eager to get back in that Beyond the Polls will be coming out weekly going forward.
This week Henry sits down with John Hood of the Pope Foundation for a tour of North Carolina, a state set for competetive elections for both GOP contenders and in the general. Then James Johnson, cofounder of JL Partners, takes us through his findings on an electorate which largely disapproves of the presidential rematch that’s likely to come in ’24.
And stay tuned for a jaunt around the Atlantic as Henry rants about the victorious Javier Milei and Geert Wilders, and what these smashing overseas elections mean for the USA.

GOP: Knocked Down, Not Out? Nov 09, 2023

We're hearing that voters prefer a "generic candidate." Today Henry and his polling buddies consider this ideal alongside the less popular incarnate candidates before us. Kristen Soltis Anderson covers interesting shifts in Trump voter demographics and the weak challenges by his primary opponents; Spencer Kimball joins to discuss Biden's waning support with key Democratic blocs and his trailing Republicans in swing states; and Craig Gilbert dives into one of the essential swing states, clueing us in on what to look for in the race for Wisconsin.
And stay tuned to the end for the first ever “Olsen Rants!” This time he freestyles on the GOP’s rough night on Tuesday. He'll set you straight on what happened in Virginia, Kentucky, Ohio, Pennsylvania and more. The good news? It ain't as bad as you think!

Countdown in the Commonwealth Oct 26, 2023

It's a triple state of play kind of day! Henry brings us along on a tour of key southern states. Rudy Bush of Texas breaks down Ted Cruz's fight with Colin Allred and Lone Star State's demographic changes. Then we move to pressing matters further East, where off year elections are underway. Al Cross takes us through the must-watch governor's race between Andy Beshear and Daniel Cameron in the Commonwealth of Kentucky; and J. Miles Coleman joins to pick apart campaigns in the political bellwether that is the Virginia General Assembly.
Plus Henry's Washington Post colleague Dan Balz assesses the fight between Nikki Haley and Ron DeSantis to be Donald Trump's final Republican challenger. And "Ad of the Week" returns with an introductory bio ad for prosecutor Bill Graham who hopes to be North Carolina's next governor.

Weighting For Dummies Oct 12, 2023

While a Trump/Biden rematch is looking more likely every day, Henry returns with another merry band of politicos to discuss many of the remaining unknowns left in this '24 election cycle.
Charles Franklin (Director of the Marquette Law School Poll) provides a profile of the 1 in 5 Americans who make up the reluctant and "double doubter" categories; Matt Lewis of the Daily Beast breaks down a Republican Party in flux, and considers what consequences McCarthy's ouster will have; and Dennis Lennox is here to explain why the U.S. Virgin Islands — where he serves as the Executive Director of the territory's Republican Party —are much more than an ideal vacation spot; plus there's some talk about why rank choice voting might have a future.

So You're Saying There's a Chance? Sep 28, 2023

Donald Trump looks like he’s running away with the GOP nomination, but several impressive opponents keep flailing away trying to catch him. Is this an exercise in futility or can one of them actually unseat him from his throne?
To discuss the complicated feat facing 2024 hopefuls, Henry welcomes RMG Research Founder and President Scott Rasmussen for the Polling Barometer; NBC’s National Political Correspondent Steve Kornacki on the Republican Rumble; and Nevada Independent CEO Jon Ralston on all things “Silver State”.
And stay tuned til the end for Henry’s breakdown of Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear’s well played ad attacking challenger Daniel Cameron’s position on abortion.

Voter Inertia: The Meal Ticket? Sep 14, 2023

We all have a favorite dish at our favorite restaurant, and often enough we just can't help but to stick with it. Could this tendency explain the resounding lead Donald Trump enjoys in the Republican race? Are those 91 indictments resembling five star reviews to the GOP base, or are DeSantis, Haley and Ramaswamy simply unappetizing?
Today Henry sits down with FiveThirtyEight's Geoffrey Skelley and Cook Political Report's Amy Walter to go over the menu. He and Geoff consider the Democrat's lack of alternatives to the underwhelming Joe Biden, along with the 'No Labels' third party push. Amy joins to discuss the GOP's race to second place and whether one of those candidates could go on to pull enough of the Republicans willing to be persuaded away from Trump.
Stay tuned to the end to hear Henry's breakdown of the NRSC's ad against Montana senator Jon Tester.

Iowa: The Eye of the Storm Aug 31, 2023

The GOP is one debate into the 2024 primary season, and many are eager to see how the winds have turned. Henry's back with another batch of polling savants to assess. Politico's Steven Shepard considers whether Hurricane Idalia's big splash in Florida's Big Bend will breathe some life into Ron DeSantis' campaign. Brianne Pfannenstiel of The Des Moines Register explains the Iowa caucus, and fills us in on the key lessons to take away from the showing in 2016. And Ramesh Ponnuru joins to discuss last week'sRepublican debate—which you may have noticed was missing its party's frontrunner. Henry also covers Team Biden's powerful "These Guys" ad.
All this and more awaits beyond the polls!

Second Thoughts for Double Doubters Aug 17, 2023

It’s early days in the fight for 2024, but it’s hard to shake the feeling that it's shaping up like 2016 where the election was decided by voters who disliked both major party nominees. Henry calls these folks "Double Doubters" and doubles down with his guests this week to see who they are and what they think.
Forecaster extraordinaire Harry Enten delivers insights that cut through post-2016 polling disillusionment; Sabato’s Crystal Ball’s Kyle Kondik has advice for Republican candidates who appear to be jostling for second place; and Post and Courier political editor Schuyler Kropf fills us in on the heretofore neglected heavyweight state, South Carolina.

Ready, Set . . . Go! Aug 04, 2023

Presidential election season is approaching. Thankfully Henry Olsen and his guests are back to provide detailed examination of the facts, figures, twists and turns that will whittle down today's crowded field. We'll be going beyond the polls!
Today we're hearing from Semafor's Dave Weigel to assess the Republican Rumble; we'll take a Democratic Deep Dive with Ruy Teixeira, politcal editor of The Liberal Patriot; AEI's Karlyn Bowman joins to guage the Polling Barometer; and Dante Scala, professor of political science at the University of New Hampshire, give us the State of Play for that oh-so-important primary battleground.
Join us as we go... Beyond the Polls!

And Down the Stretch They Come! Oct 29, 2020

Our crazy election season is nearly over, and RealClearPolitics’s Sean Trende and the American Enterprise Institute’s Karlyn Bowman help us unpack the polls and discuss the future of a post-Trump Republican Party. Only on Beyond the Polls with Henry Olsen!

Into the Final Turn Oct 24, 2020

Only ten days to go and about 1/3 of the ballots have already been cast. Can Donald Trump come from behind? Can the Republicans hold the Senate? Polling expert Karlyn Bowman and election analyst Jacob Rabushkin help us answer these questions. And a special guest appearance by the late Mao Tse Tung on the Ad of the Week – only on Beyond the Polls with Henry Olsen! Source

White House Down Oct 15, 2020

President Trump has continued to drop in the polls and he’s spending his time in states he won handily four years ago. The Sabato Crystal Ball’s Kyle Kondik and the American Enterprise Institute’s Karlyn Bowman join Beyond the Polls with Henry Olsen this week to tell us what it all portends. Dave Wasserman of the Cook Political Report also joined the podcast to run down the state of play in the U.S. House races. Source

Into the Final Turn Oct 08, 2020

The race has entered its last full month with twists and turns galore. Karlyn Bowman sorts the polling out for us this week while the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel’s Craig Gilbert gives us the state of play in the key swing state of Wisconsin. All this and three ads of the week, only on Beyond the Polls with Henry Olsen! Source

We've Been Slimed Oct 01, 2020

Will Tuesday’s disgusting debate shake up the presidential race? Election expert Ruy Teixeira joins Beyond the Polls with Henry Olsen to give his assessment. Arizona is perhaps the key battleground state, and the University of Arizona’s Samara Klar gives us the lowdown from the ground. Polling analyst Karlyn Bowman joins in the launch of our new regular feature, Poll Barometer, which looks at what the polls tell us... Source

A New York State of Mind Sep 18, 2020

This week’s episode takes us into New York City for a look at two especially incisive ads that could only have come from the Big Apple. We also look at President Trump’s standing with white working-class voters and his general election prospects with the Economist’s D.C. Bureau Chief, James Astill. Listen today! Source

The Main Event Begins Sep 03, 2020

Both parties have held their conventions and the mano-a-mano contest has started in earnest. The Cook Political Report’s Amy Walter joins Beyond the Polls with Henry Olsen to tell us where the race stands and where it might go. This week also features an extended edition of Ad of the Week: we look at seven ads in three races to explore different techniques strategists use to communicate a message in the context of a... Source

"A Bucket of Warm Spit" Aug 14, 2020

FDR’s first Vice President is quoted as saying the job was not worth a bucket of warm spit, although he actually used an earthier bodily fluid to describe the vice presidency. Will Sen. Kamala Harris agree if the Biden-Harris ticket wins? MSNBC’s Steve Kornacki joins Beyond the Polls with Henry Olsen to talk about Harris’ selection and give us his assessment on the state of the race. The Federalist’s Mollie... Source

The Race for Senate Control Aug 07, 2020

Control of the Senate is up for grabs; can Republicans hold on? Inside Elections’ Nathan Gonzales provides a comprehensive rundown of all the key races and where the overall picture stands on this week’s episode. Newsmax’s John Gizzi also talks about what it’s like to cover the Trump White House and where he think the president should go this month to recover his standing. Source

Covid-19 and Trump 2020 Jul 30, 2020

The coronavirus pandemic has disrupted American politics, pushing campaigns to the sidelines and dealing a serious blow to President Trump’s re-election hopes. Real Clear Politics’ Sean Trende has been following the spread of covid-19 in addition to his regular political analysis and joins us to explain what is really going on with covid and the presidential race. We’ll also run down the six... Source

Is Trump Just Whistling Dixie? Jul 11, 2020

The polls show President Trump and the Republicans are looking at a November shellacking. Are they right? Political analyst Geoffrey Skelley from 538.com joins the Horse Race to give us his thought. He’s joined by University of Houston political scientist Richard Murray who will fill us in on how bad it could get in normally red Texas. All this and TWO Ads of the Week, only on Beyond the Polls with Henry Olsen! Source

Trump's Slump Jun 17, 2020

Every athlete no matter how excellent goes through extended down periods, slumps. President Trump’s poll ratings have been down for over two months now, whether they are measured by his job approval rating or his mead-to-head matchups with Joe Biden. Is this slump or a serious, perhaps permanent, downturn? The Atlantic’s Ron Brownstein and the Washington Examiner and New York Post’s Salena Zito... Source

Who Was That Masked Man? May 27, 2020

You know things are getting weird when the main topic in a presidential race is who’s wearing masks and when. This week’s guests – Robert Costa of The Washington Post and National Review’s Jim Geraghty – help us understand the logic underneath the craziness. We even unmask the reasoning behind a recent Democratic ad designed to help a Republican on Ad of the Week! Source

Eye of the Storm May 14, 2020

With states beginning to reopen and politics beginning to heat up, it feels like we’re in the eye of the storm – past the covid-19 hammer and preparing for the election maelstrom to come. CNN political analyst Harry Enten joins the Horse Race to help us make sense of this moment, while White House correspondent Debra Saunders gives us a behind the scenes look at covering Trump during the pandemic. Source

California Dreamin' May 07, 2020

Beyond the Polls with Henry Olsen takes a close look at the May 12 special election in California’s 25th Congressional District with the National Journal’s Josh Kraushaar, while Ad of the Week walks through the series of ads both candidates in that race have aired, showing how a campaign strategy unfolds over the airwaves. We also talk with legendary psephologist Charlie Cook about the ins and outs of forecasting... Source

Classic Political Vinyl, Vol. 1 Apr 30, 2020

Beyond the Polls with Henry Olsen explores the history of political analysis with one of its founders, Stuart Rothenberg, and asks Stu what he looks at to analyze a contest. We also talk with columnist and author E.J. Dionne about President Trump and Joe Biden’s chances to improve Democratic performance with white working class voters. Finally, Ad of the Week looks at a Republican candidate in Pennsylvania’s 8th... Source

Biden's Billions Apr 23, 2020

Joe Biden had his best fundraising month to date in March but still lags behind President Trump’s cash on hand by tens of millions. The Washington Post’s David Weigel tells us how much Trump’s fundraising advantage is helping his re-election bid. Beyond the Polls with Henry Olsen also traveled to the Keystone State to talk with political scientist Terry Madonna about Pennsylvania’s politics. All this and Ad of the... Source

Here I Stand Apr 16, 2020

Martin Luther kicked off the Protestant Reformation with his immortal words, “here I stand; I can do no other.” President Trump earns praise and scorn for his similar attitude, and as a result has forced conservatives and Republicans to rethink their orthodoxies. Is a conservative reformation at hand? Noted author Yuval Levin joins Beyond the Polls with Henry Olsen to expand on that question... Source

Why Is This Podcast Different from All The Others? Apr 09, 2020

This week, Ben Domenech of the Federalist grades Trump’s response to the coronavirus while the American Enterprise Institute’s Karlyn Bowman explores what the polls say Americans think about the pandemic’s effects on their lives. J. Miles Coleman also dissects North Carolina’s political divisions. All this and an Ad of the Week that takes aim at China and the “Chinese Virus”! Source

Open House Apr 02, 2020

Elections are getting postponed, but that doesn’t mean politics is in lockdown. This week we look at the race for control of the U.S. House with the Cook Political Report’s Dave Wasserman; talk about how the pandemic is affecting Trump’s re-election prospects with the Sabato Crystal Ball’s Kyle Kondik; and take another look at Wisconsin with the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel’s Craig Gilbert. Source

Zen(Caster) and the Art of Podcast Production Mar 26, 2020

Coronavirus has affected Beyond the Polls with Henry Olsen – this is our first effort produced with everyone calling remotely using custom software. That might affect our audio quality, but it’s not impeding the quality of our commentary! Victor Davis Hanson, author of The Case for Trump, joins us this week to dissect how the president is handling these vexing times, while my Washington Post colleague Karen Tumulty... Source

Sick, Sad World Mar 19, 2020

Biden’s up, the market’s down, and all is definitely not well in America. This week’s podcast looks forward to November’s general election to discuss what this all means for the President as he grapples with a crisis of immense proportion with The Cook Political Report’s Amy Walter and National Review’s Rich Lowry. The Atlanta Journal-Constitution’s Greg Bluestein joins the show to talk about how... Source

Hurricane Joe Strikes Again Mar 13, 2020

The political force of nature that is Joe Biden hit land again Tuesday, and with six wins in seven states he effectively clinched the Democratic nomination. This week’s Beyond the Polls with Henry Olsen look at two states that look likely to continue Joe’s winning streak next Tuesday, Ohio and Florida, with the Columbus Dispatch’s Darrel Rowland and POLITICO’s Marc Caputo. We also look ahead to the general election and... Source

From Sleepy Joe to Super Joe Mar 05, 2020

Joe Biden’s stunning political resurrection is the main topic on this week’s podcast. Daily Beast columnist and CNN contributor Matt Lewis joins Henry to go over the turn of events, while Detroit Free Press correspondent Todd Spangler dissects next week’s crucial Michigan primary. All this plus American Greatness publisher Chris Buskirk to talk Trump and a new Ad of the Week, only on the Horse... Source

The Killer B’s Feb 27, 2020

The Democratic race is heating up as Biden, Bernie, and Bloomberg start to start to jump out from the pack going into Super Tuesday. We look at the biggest states voting that day, California and Texas, with iconic Democratic strategist Bob Shrum and Houston Chronicle columnist Erica Grieder; take in a view from flyover country with political reporter Salena Zito; and talk Trump with EPPC Senior... Source

Fear and Loathing in Las Vegas Feb 20, 2020

Democrats have rolled into Nevada for that state’s caucuses, with many candidates hoping to get lucky before they go bust. This week’s Horse Race examines Saturday’s caucuses with the Las Vegas Review-Journal’s Steve Sebelius and MSNBC’s Steve Kornacki. We also look ahead to next week’s South Carolina primary with the Charleston Post and Courier’s Schuyler Kropf and talk all things Trump with the... Source

There's Something About Amy Feb 13, 2020

The Democratic race plunged into more confusion and dysfunction after New Hampshire as Joe Biden summoned his pony soldier army and “Senator Next Door” Amy Klobuchar is finally making fetch happen. Longtime progressive political analyst Ruy Teixeira deconstructs the Democratic race while Arizona Republic columnist Robert Robb does a deep dive into the Grand Canyon State. All this plus the Ad of... Source

Trip and Rip Feb 06, 2020

This week’s episode looks at aftermath of the Democratic debacle in Iowa with Real Clear Politics’ Sean Trende; dives deep into the New Hampshire primary with Granite State political scientist Dante Scala; and explores how Trump smacked down his opponents at the State of the Union address with American Greatness’s Julie Ponzi. All this plus an overview of the battle for Senate control in this... Source

Iowa 2020: Field of Dreams or Screams Jan 30, 2020

Democrats are swarming all over Iowa for a shot at the nomination. This week’s Beyond the Polls with Henry Olsen takes a deep dive into the Hawkeye State and looks ahead to next Monday’s caucuses. Trump’s job approval is also at record highs -can he keep it going? All this along with the Ad of the Week. Only on Beyond the Polls with Henry Olsen. Source

Schiff of Fools Jan 23, 2020

Calling all political junkies, number crunchers, and poll watchers: this new podcast is for YOU. Washington Post political columnist and Ethics and Public Policy senior fellow Henry Olsen discusses the likely political impact of impeachment with the American Enterprise Institute’s Karlyn Bowman.

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