Beyond the Polls with Henry Olsen

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AZ and the Wild Card Races Jul 16, 2026

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Partisan trends being what they are, it's increasingly rare to see an election actually decided in November. The parties matter more, the candidates a bit less. But that divide doesn't seem so big in the Grand Canyon State, and Arizonans like a maverick. Chuck Warren of Breaking Battlegrounds joins Henry to discuss the flamboyant characters vying for congressional districts 1, 5, and 6, along with the story behind Andy Biggs' surprisingly easy path to a general against incumbent Governor Katie Hobbs.
Plus, Henry breaks down the rules of the exceedingly interesting Senate elections coming up in Maine and South Carolina following the dropout of Graham Platner and the passing of Lindsey Graham. And the Democratic establishment strikes back with a couple of ads targeting progressive disrupters.

The Zig-Zaggy Leftward Lurch Jul 09, 2026

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The Democratic Socialists of America have laid their plans, are on the march, and have been making steady gains, but established orders aren't toppled in a day... and there's trouble in paradise. Henry rants his way through the fall of Graham Platner, Abdul El-Sayed's edge in his race for Michigan's Senate seat, and Melat Kiros' victory in Colorado's 1st district.
Plus, we're back with an ad of the week as Wesley Bell defends his seat in Missouri in a rematch against Squad member Cori Bush.

What Americans Say About The American Way Jul 02, 2026

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America's birthday is almost here, and the semiquincentennial milestone imbues the annual celebration with special significance. For this reason, Henry sits down with the American Enterprise Institute's Karlyn Bowman to discuss her latest report, America at 250: Surveying Change and Continuity on Civic Values, a grand survey comparing American sentiments today with those of respondents nearly 30 years ago. Tune in to hear the surprising—and mostly reassuring!—findings on what's changed and what's stayed the same when Americans reflect on what it means to be American.

The Ballot Balancing Act Jun 25, 2026

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Americans all rightly make a great deal about our democracy. But the partisan element sets in quickly, and the incessant debate extends even beyond the candidates and initiatives on the ballot. Stephen Richer (a fellow of the Cato Institute and Harvard Kennedy School and former Maricopa County recorder) joins Henry to discuss past and contemporary efforts to address fundamental concerns about voting access and election integrity.
Plus, we take two bites out of the Big Apple for this week's rant and ad of the week. Mayor Mamdani and his team of Democratic Socialists of America members won big on Tuesday, and Henry frames this wave in a historical context at the top and ends with a close look at how this group applied digital media savvy to get its shot at influencing the future.

It's Up To You, New York! Jun 18, 2026

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Start spreading the news: New Yorkers are hitting the polls next week, and the election is gonna be something wild. Cook Political's Erin Covey is our tour de force guide through the many candidates vying to represent the city's distinct locales, including a "Commie Corridor," which bumps up against the Wall Street district, which lies just south of the newlywed Upper East/Upper West Side "You've Got Mail District." Let's just say these neighbors have varied opinions on AI, Israel, the proper minimum wage and paid family leave. Our duo also hops over the Hudson to look into a couple races of interest to NY Republicans before making a quick trip to Maryland 5, where a 24-way race has brewed up to replace retiring Steny Hoyer.
Plus, Henry breaks down this week's results from Georgia and Alabama, and considers how Trump's current approval numbers may affect once-safe GOP Senate seats.

Southern Bellwethers? Jun 11, 2026

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We've got Senate runoffs in the Deep South next week, and that means we already know what's in the bag... right? Wrong! Jessica Taylor, Cook Political Report's Senate and Governors Editor, returns to update us on a couple of surprisingly close Republican primaries. Tune in to hear about an Alabama outsider's formidable challenge to the Trump-endorsed candidate and the Republicans hoping to unseat a relatively strong John Ossoff in the increasingly purple Peach State. The duo also looks ahead to the next big Democratic Senate primary in Michigan.
Plus, Henry jets around the far corners of the country for a rant on Graham Platner's win in Maine, Spencer Pratt's loss in Los Angeles, and how ranked-choice voting might leave Congressional control uncertain if races in Alaska and Maine remain tight. And we take a look at a trio of uber-expensive ads for a California gubernatorial candidate you may not have even heard about.

Mapmaker, Matchmaker Jun 04, 2026

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Though election watchers generally have to make some peace with selfish motives and unpleasant truths, there is more to democracy than the cynics would have you believe. Sean Trende is back for a chat on this theme as it applies to the redistricting wars. In 2020, the Virginia Supreme Court tasked Sean with helping draft the commonwealth's congressional map—the very map that state Democrats unsuccessfully tried to replace this year. He and Henry talk through the labor involved in drawing fair lines, and the unique challenges of doing so in an age of partisan gamesmanship.
Plus, we had a primary bonanza on Tuesday! Henry rants through what we can glean from the results still trickling in from California, Zach Lahn's surprise victory in Iowa over his Trump-endorsed opponent, and a few more progressive insurgents breaking through establishment Democrats' trenches.
And if you haven't already, be sure to sign up for Henry's "Margin of Victory" newsletter to stay ahead of the curve this election season.

This Year's Model May 28, 2026

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America is a change agent. Just this week, we witnessed another sign of that as unstoppable MAGA momentum pushed notorious Ken Paxton to a walloping victory over party loyalist John Cornyn. So how does one gauge public opinion in such a dynamic terrain? To answer that, Henry sits down with James Kanagasooriam of the research firm Focaldata. The duo discusses the history of polling and the current methods for addressing new challenges, such as response rate collapse and demographic biases toward politically engaged voters, and how these fit into the timeless task of interpreting the results. All of it adds up to a must-listen lesson on how some pollsters innovate to make their boldly accurate calls.
Plus, Henry examines the Texas runoff results and looks ahead to exciting primaries coming up in California, New Jersey, Iowa, Montana, and South Dakota.

Waving Cane in the Lone Star State May 21, 2026

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Texas is known for super-sizing every endeavor, so amid another hyper-polarized election season you can bet on a spectacle with an ensemble cast down south. Scott Braddock of Quorum Report joins Henry this week to give us the inside scoop on the Cornyn-Paxton Senate runoff and a close look at the characters vying for redrawn House districts around the major metro areas.
Plus, Henry examines this week's primary results, paying special attention to the victory for polarization — evidenced by Thomas Massie's decisive defeat at the president's behest on the one hand, and the big win in PA-03 by new Squad member Chris Rabb on the other.

Peachy Primaries and Commonwealth Commotions May 14, 2026

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We've got seven primaries coming through this week, and that means we're on the move! First, Martha Zoller takes Henry on a tour of Georgia's crowded Republican contests to vie for John Ossoff's Senate seat, House districts, and the Governor's mansion in Atlanta. Next, we jump up north, where Erin Covey returns to give an in-depth analysis of key races in Kentucky and Pennsylvania.
We're adless this week, but Henry has much to say about the Republican breakthrough beyond the gerrymander trenches and the implications it may have for House control come November.

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