Beyond the Polls with Henry Olsen

Latest Episodes:

Safe Senate Seat Scuffles May 07, 2026

Show notes

The old rhyme promises that May brings the flowers, and sure enough we're seeing early bursts of the election season bloom! This week, Jessica Taylor of the Cook Political Report guides us through three surprisingly close Republican primaries in the reliably red South. Get to know the candidates chasing open Senate seats in Alabama and Kentucky, and take a gander at Bill Cassidy's feverish fight in Louisiana to survive Trump's retribution for his 2021 vote in favor of Trump's impeachment. Expect strong weather and prepare for runoff.
Plus, Henry looks at Tuesday's bloodbath in Indiana and Ron DeSantis's gerrymander and sees signs that Trump's bare-knuckle style might secure another title for the heel. And lastly, we glance at dueling ads between California's top Democratic gubernatorial candidates.

Beggars Can't Be Hoosiers Apr 30, 2026

Show notes

When the Trump administration launched its controversial mid-decade redistricting effort earlier this year, it was met not only with howls of outrage from Democrats but also with steadfast opposition from Republicans in Indiana. Now, the president and Governor Mike Braun are weighing in on the state senate primaries, endorsing challengers over the defectors. To take us through the twists and turns of this exceptional drama, Henry sits down with Brian Howey of State Affairs Pro Indiana.
Plus, Henry dives into Florida's own GOP-friendly demography to consider whether Governor DeSantis will have better fortune in the map-making endeavor. And we examine an ad trifecta from the Democratic super PAC Priorities USA that may portend the future of targeted political messaging.

What Really Matters Apr 23, 2026

Show notes

It's no secret that ordinary Americans are often puzzled by the fights animating partisans inside the Beltway. A question emerges, however: What would our representatives talk about if they thought more like the people who elected them? Today, Henry sits down with Tim Goeglein of Focus on the Family to discuss his new book, What Really Matters: Restoring a Legacy of Faith, Freedom, and Family.
Plus, Henry breaks down how the economic fallout from the war with Iran is weighing down Trump's approval and the chances for Republican congressional hopefuls. And stay tuned until the end for a closer look at two clever attack ads—one aimed at Thomas Massie and another with sights on Sherrod Brown.

Politics Post 10/7: Whither America’s Jews? Apr 17, 2026

Show notes

In the two-and-a-half years since the October 7th attacks, political observers have witnessed a substantial change in American sentiment toward Israel. Josh Kraushaar, editor-in-chief of Jewish Insider, joins Henry to consider the unsettling development and the implications of the breakdown in bipartisan support for our beleaguered ally.
Plus: Returned from Hungary, Henry has a few observations that might be material to President Trump as his approval rating sags. And we take a look at a pair of dueling spots from the CA-40 primary to highlight the dominant theme of 2026 Republican advertising.

Breaking Fidesz Apr 09, 2026

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Henry's in Hungary this week, calling in from Budapest to detail the mood around the Danube ahead of an election that's drawing unprecedented attention from the rest of the West. Tune in to get up to speed on Viktor Orbán, the longtime leader of the governing Fidesz Party, and his frenzied race against Péter Magyar, a former Fidesz member who now leads the suddenly invigorated Tisza Party.

States in Play Apr 02, 2026

Show notes

Given the emphasis on national elections in our hyper-partisan era, one might forgive young people their ignorance about the workings of our many-layered federal system. But this week's guest, Chaz Nuttycombe, isn't your typical youth. He joins Henry to discuss his election site, State Navigate, which brings exceptional election analysis to the granular level.
Plus, Henry looks at the presidential approval and generic ballot numbers from April 2018, and...let's just say it's time for a serious chat. We also examine ads from two cunning MAGA Republicans in Kentucky, exploring how they imply close ties to the president (who hasn't endorsed either of them).

A Labor of Love Mar 26, 2026

Show notes

Some follow elections because they're in the business, others out of enthusiasm for the whole democracy thing, and if you've been around long enough, you can appreciate how much easier it is to track the races that matter—big and small, all over the world. One resource that's upped the ante for right-leaning political data fanatics is RRH Elections, and Henry sits down with two of RRH's contributors to hear how and why they built this top-notch site.
Plus, Trump's approval ratings have hit a new low for this term. Tune in to hear what's driving the latest dip and what it could mean for the midterms. Stay until the end to hear Henry's review of three noteworthy ads from the Democratic camp.

Right as Rainey Mar 19, 2026

Show notes

Thanks to the ballooning interest in political polling over the last few decades, Americans can closely track daily changes in matters like the president's approval rating. But it is the rare outfit like the Rainey Center that digs beyond basic questions to provide a substantive survey of American sentiments. This week, Henry sits down with Russ Walker, Rainey's Vice President of Policy, to discuss their recent polling reports on attitudes about affordability and the American Dream, immigration enforcement, and artificial intelligence.
Plus, Henry breaks down the establishment Democrats' victory over restless progressives in Chicagoland, along with responses to this year's many foreign policy adventures.
Lastly, we look at a couple of splendidly creative Republican ads.

Land of Lincoln is Lit Mar 12, 2026

Show notes

In one-party states, turnover is rare. So when Dick Durbin gives up the Senate seat he's held since 1997, we'd expect some movement. And, wow oh wow, are ambitious Illinis on the move! To introduce us to the ensemble casts crowding up key races, Henry sits down with Cook Political Report's Erin Covey.
Henry also explains the Iron Law of Primaries and digs further into early findings on public attitudes about the war in Iran. Plus, we have competing ads from the Illinois Senate race, along with an attack ad against Thomas Massie that indicates midterm party priorities. (And we're flagging an innovative ad featuring Bobby Rush that uses artificial intelligence to boost his endorsement of Jesse Jackson Jr.)

It's Primary Season! Mar 05, 2026

Show notes

The first primaries for the 2026 midterms came last week, and Henry's flying solo to survey the results. Tune in for analysis on James Talarico's victory over TX-30 Rep. Jasmine Crockett for the Democratic Senate nomination; incumbent John Cornyn's top-finish against Ken Paxton in the runoff-bound Republican bid; House seats in the Lone Star State and North Carolina; along with thoughts on President Trump's recent approval ratings bump and polling on condition-based sentiments about the sudden onset of war in the Middle East.
Plus, this week's dueling ads provide a contrast in style and sensibility that overshadows even the partisan divide.

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