Beyond the Polls with Henry Olsen

Latest Episodes:

The Buckeye of the GOP Storm Mar 14, 2024

Show notes

The Ohio primaries are fast approaching, so we're off to the Buckeye State. Longtime Republican strategist Mark Weaver breaks down the top contests, including the tight, three-way race to take on incumbent Senate Democrat Sherrod Brown. Plus Henry covers Biden’s SOTU address. What does he make of this preview of Joe Biden’s 2024 campaign strategy, and how will the partisan messaging fare as the Democratic Party loses its popular vote edge? Tune in to find out!

General Concerns with Harry Enten Mar 07, 2024

Show notes

The primary season is over; a second Trump/Biden presidential race is all but certain. Transitioning to the general, CNN psephologist Harry Enten joins to explain the notable demographic shifts and electoral patterns that have taken shape since 2020. Plus, Henry takes us through Donald Trump's unique success at building out from the party base; and we stop by purple Wisconsin to see how Tammy Baldwin goes about defining challenger Eric Hovde.

The Conservative Movement Moves On Feb 29, 2024

Show notes

Those hoping for a sign that a 2020 presidential rematch could be averted will be disappointed by Tuesday's primaries in the Wolverine State. National Review's Rich Lowry joins to explore what Donald Trump's grip on the GOP means for the future of conservatism. Plus, Henry takes a look at the effectiveness of the Michigan Democratic Party's "Uncommitted" pressure campaign against Joe Biden.

Prepped for a Punchout in the Palmetto State Feb 22, 2024

Show notes

Donald Trump is set for another smashing victory on Saturday, this time against his lone challenger in her own state of South Carolina. But Nikki Haley's announced that she won't stay down. Charleston Post and Courier Political Editor Schuyler Kropf joins to conduct a close examination of the campaigns. Plus, Henry considers Team Haley's post-South Carolina strategy, and he makes a quick trip up to North Carolina where a new candidate named Fred Von Canon is eager to introduce himself.

From Kennedy to Kardashian: An American Survey Feb 15, 2024

Show notes

The days of landline polling are gone forever, the internet has changed everything. This week Henry is joined by Chief Scientist at YouGov and Hoover Institution Senior Fellow Douglas Rivers to discuss the innovative methodological approach he uses to find representative polling samples when much of the electorate is unwilling to respond to polls.
Henry also takes a closer look at Tuesday’s special election in New York’s 3rd Congressional District and explains how the good day for Democrats might signal an underlying general election problem for their party. And stay tuned to the end for his take on the Super Bowl ad that got everyone talking about a man named Kennedy.

Second to "None" Feb 08, 2024

Show notes

Henry may be off in paradise to cover the Virgin Islands' Republican presidential caucuses, but he's back for another deep dive into American politics. He enjoys what looks at first glance like a nothingburger in Nevada, and lays out what it means for Joe Biden, Nikki Haley and the man who wasn't on the GOP primary ticket. He also breaks down Adam Schiff's tricks to face a Republican for California’s empty Senate seat. And you'll hear about the battle for the House with Sabato’s Crystal Ball managing editor Kyle Kondik.

Nate Cohn Threads the Needle Feb 01, 2024

Show notes

To anyone who seriously follows electoral politics, today's guest will need no introduction. Nate Cohn joins Henry to cover the ins and outs of the polling world: everything from the voter file to polling aggregation; plus Nate's precinct analysis and the “Election Needle”. They also discuss the problems with issue polling and the demographic warning signs for the Democratic Party.
And Henry's got a rant for Joe Biden, whose failure to strike a deal with Mike Johnson means missing out on a political win at home and a policy win abroad.

Around the World with Henry and Hugh Hewitt Jan 25, 2024

Show notes

Hugh Hewitt joins Beyond the Polls for a rousing discussion of politics at home and abroad. They search for common threads and draw distinctions among the nations seeing populist waves; and they dig in to the Trump-Haley race for the Republican nomination.
Plus, Henry reminds us that the Republican primary wasn’t the only contest held in New Hampshire. Listen to his rant about Joe Biden’s mediocre day in the Granite State and what it could mean for the general election.

All Eyes on N.H. Jan 18, 2024

Show notes

Nikki Haley's trying to make a stand in New Hampshire. But she has her work cut out for her. Henry reconvenes with his Granite State pal Danta Scala to discuss the turnout Haley needs and the challenges she'll have trying to drive two messages—one to moderates, another to conservatives—in New Hampshire's paid media blizzard.
Plus Henry rants professorially this week to anatomize the Iowa results, and considers an effective Haley ad which utilizes a word we haven't heard much of from her campaign.

A Cold Night in Iowa Jan 11, 2024

Show notes

One can’t help but wonder if Iowans are really going to go out in droves on a night with expected -35 degree wind chill to cast their votes for Donald Trump, Ron DeSantis, Nikki Haley or Vivek Ramaswamy? President of the Iowa Faith and Freedom Coalition Steve Scheffler joins to remind us that the Hawkeye State is made up of hardy people. He and Henry cover the remaining candidates and what they might reasonably hope for on Monday’s Caucus.
Henry also breaks down the keys to Trump’s successful campaign and Haley’s recent ad that highlights her talent for maximizing appeal to a broad base of voters.