Beyond the Polls with Henry Olsen

Latest Episodes:

Decisions, Decisions: Ranked-Choice Voting in the Last Frontier Aug 15, 2024

Show notes

In Alaska's 2022 special election, candidates as varied as Sarah Palin and Mary Peltola to Santa Claus were on the ballot. That year was also unique for offering ranked-choice voting, allowing conflicted residents to cast as many as four picks with descending weight. In November, both the incumbent Peltola and the ranked-choice repeal initiative are on the ballot, so Henry recruits the Alaska Beacon's James Brooks to give us a tour of the vast electoral wilderness.
Plus, Henry wonders about the staying power of Kamala-mania; and unpacks an Arizona attack ad that highlights the firebrand Kari Lake's baggage.

A Walz in the Park? Aug 08, 2024

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The tickets are set, and Americans are looking at a stark choice between two very different futures. Henry is joined by Michael Podhorzer — former political director of the AFL-CIO and author of the Weekend Reading substack. The two dive into the campaign framing between a MAGA or normal election that past polling shows will all but guarantee the outcome in November.
Plus, Henry rants on what Tim Walz's selection tells us about the Harris campaign; and he takes a look at Ohio Democrat Sherrod Brown's border ad where he poses as... a Republican.

An Unconventional Convention Jul 31, 2024

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With Joe Biden's decision to drop out from the presidential race, the Democratic Party has been forced to improvise. But there's a method to what looks like madness! Joining Henry today is the Brookings Institution's Elaine Kamarck — author of Primary Politics: Everything You Need to Know about How America Nominates Its Presidential Candidates. Tune in for an in-depth discussion on the process that will straighten out the party's predicament.
Plus, Henry considers how Kamala Harris's placement on the ticket affects the "double haters" that have simultaneously fascinated and flummoxed pollsters; and he takes us through Wesley Bell's latest ad to get the attention of Cori Bush's base.

Appraising Arizona Jul 24, 2024

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The tectonic shakeup in American politics continues, as Joe Biden bows out and Kamala Harris appears positioned as Democratic heir apparent. Henry digs into the challenges she faces as a well-known figure with high unfavorability, and considers how she might attempt to expand her appeal. Next, Daniel Scarpinato joins to assess the key primaries in the ever-interesting Grand Canyon State. They break down the fight among Democrats to defeat David Schweikert in AZ 1, the Republican scrap to replace Debbie Lesko in AZ 8, and the race to replace Reuban Gallego in AZ 3. Finally, he takes a look at a moving abortion ad in Nevada that aims to keep Sam Brown out of the Senate.

Within the Polls at Pew Research Jul 18, 2024

Show notes

It’s been a wicked googly of a week in American politics! To start, Henry appraises how the polls might be affected by both the attempt on Trump’s life and the announcement of an all-outsider ticket, with J.D. Vance in the VP slot. Next, he and Michael Dimock (president of the Pew Research Center) delve into the process of crafting public opinion polls that pin down the perplexing array of citizen sentiments. Lastly, he takes a look at another ad of the week — this time from a problem-solving newcomer running in Wisconsin’s 8th.

Pressing Matters with Dana Perino Jul 10, 2024

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Washington's worst-kept secret is out: Joe Biden is not up to the job he's campaigning for. Today's guest is former White House Press Secretary and Fox News host Dana Perino. No stranger to balancing the priorities of the nation's inquiring minds with those of the administration, she joins Henry to discuss a presidential fiasco like no other we've ever seen.
Plus, Henry digs into the debate that finally got Democrats talking about Biden's decline; considers how down-ballot candidates will be affected; and speculates on how the party might clean up its mess. He also takes a look at Maggie Newlander's impressive introductory ad.

Get the Bloody Tories Out! Jul 02, 2024

Show notes

After 14 years at the helm, the polls tell us the British Tories are facing a slaughter on Thursday. To get at the party’s collapse, Henry hops across the pond to discuss British politics with a couple of swell chaps. First up is The Times’ Tim Montgomerie, who covers the post-Brexit smashing victory and the subsequent failure to deliver to the new coalition. Then Matthew Goodwin joins to dig into the rise of Nigel Farage, UKIP, and the Reform Party’s challenge to the status quo.
And if you're new to the British parliamentary system, fret not! Henry's got a rant to get you up to speed.
- Music from this week's show: "Rule, Britannia" performed by the Prince's Military Band and "The Star Spangled Banner" performed by Frank C. Stanley (via the Library of Congress)

Money Talks Jun 27, 2024

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If you want to win an election, you gotta campaign. And to campaign, you gotta get a lotta dough! This week Henry chats with R. Rebecca Donatelli, founder of Campaign Solutions, for a deep dive into the world of online political fundraising.
Plus, Henry rants ahead of a debate that (we're told) won't change anybody's mind. And he breaks down a big introduction ad for a newcomer candidate who hopes to take Kansas 2.

Utah’s GOP: Nice Guys Finish First? Jun 20, 2024

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Chuck Warren of the Breaking Battlegrounds Podcast joins Henry for a close inspection of the ever-interesting state of Utah. They get into the characteristics that make it a red state like no other as they dig into the primaries for Mitt Romney's Senate seat and congressional districts 2 and 3.
Plus, Henry takes a look at Trump's sustained lead in the polls; later he compares the ad strategies of South Carolina CD 3 primary candidates Mark Burns and Sheri Biggs.

Crystal Ball of the Cavalier State Jun 13, 2024

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J. Miles Coleman, Associate Editor of Sabato's Crystal Ball, returns to peer into the contested primaries in Virginia's 5th, 7th and 10th congressional districts. These deep dives into the respectively red, purple and blue territories, Coleman and Henry survey this microcosm of the national stage.
Plus, Henry unpacks Emmanuel Macron's snap election gamble to head off his populist archfoe Marine Le Pen; and he looks at two finely crafted ads for Democrat Mary Peltola's tough reelection bid in Alaska.